Should The Red Sox Target Chris Capuano?
Sunday, Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reported that the Brewers had broken off talks with free agent Chris Capuano, essentially opening him up to the rest of the league.
Capuano, 32, made a successful return from Tommy John surgery last year, pitching to a 3.95 ERA including nine starts at a 4.14 mark. However, with the addition of players like Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum, the Brewers found themselves flush and weren't in particular need of a back-end starter, low-balling Capuano with incentive-laden offers.
So now Capuano is "out there", and if you ask me, he makes a ton of sense for the Red Sox.
If you look at the Red Sox' bullpen, the obvious question is who gets the lefties? Papelbon will be pitching the ninth, so forget about that. Daniel Bard, as great as he was in 2010, struggled against lefties with a 4.48 xFIP. Bobby Jenks dominated them, but also dominated everyone peripherals-wise, and so isn't the type of guy you want to throw away on a couple lefties in a row in a Dan Wheeler seventh inning. Oh, right, Wheeler, he's basically a ROOGY.
While the ideal situation is some simple progression of Bard, Jenks, and Papelbon in each-and-every game, it's not going to work out that way. Tito likes to rest his relievers as much as possible, and won't be pitching them in three games straight very often. That means we're going to see a good few seventh innings featuring Dan Wheeler and Scott Atchison, and that means we need someone who can face the lefties. It's nice to have that as the major problem, but it's a problem none-the-less.
Which brings us to Chris Capuano, and what he could do for the Red Sox in that situation. Last year, Capuano managed a 2.61 xFIP against lefties. It was a short sample size, but he looks like he's recovered from Tommy John nicely. He was never a power pitcher, but his velocity hasn't dipped since 2007. What has happened is that his pitches have their bite back, allowing him to get back to his old, solid numbers hovering around 4.00-4.30 xFIP. Against lefties, his career xFIP is 3.28. He can get the job done.
| K/9 | BB/9 | FIP | xFIP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2003 | 6.3 | 0.9 | 2.83 | 3.79 |
| 2004 | 11.49 | 3.45 | 1.84 | 2.27 |
| 2005 | 6.99 | 2.72 | 3.82 | 3.87 |
| 2006 | 7.26 | 0.45 | 2.82 | 2.94 |
| 2007 | 8.63 | 3.34 | 3.33 | 3.58 |
| 2010 | 11.29 | 3.44 | 3.84 | 2.61 |
(Chris Capuano vs. lefties)
But what's in it for Chris Capuano? Well, that brings me to my next thought: Tim Wakefield just isn't cutting it as the sixth starter. Or, rather, we could have better.
Now I love Tim Wakefield as much as anyone else. The guy has been the consummate team player for years and years, and as frustrating as a knuckleball can be to watch, it can also be plenty fun. In the last year-and-a-half, though, it's been trending towards frustrating, and that's a problem when you're starting nearly 20 games a year. The rotation, after all, never stays fully healthy, and some combo of the #6-#8 starters will usually end up contributing just as much as at least one of the initial rotation members.
Recently released, and recently returned from his second Tommy John, Chris Capuano would likely come fairly cheap. He would allow the Red Sox to stick Felix Doubront back in Triple-A for more seasoning, and be a lot more cost-effective than Brian Fuentes.
The question is whether or not Capuano would have any interest in the Red Sox. Really, this seems like almost a pipe dream addition, given the quality of the player and the position we're looking to improve. He could very likely find offers from other teams looking to stick him in a rotation spot from day one, which has to be a significant consideration. But if Capuano is looking to win, the Red Sox likely represent his best chance, and the team should at least give him the option of filling a role in Boston.
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I like the creativity
but question whether it would be a good mutual fit. I suspect that Capuano could find a home somwhere as a 5th starter and wonder whether he would be willing to accept a 6th starter/long starter/occassional LOOGY role in the Boston pen. Second, part of his value is his ability to eat innings in the pen. With hopefully an effective rotation, Wakefield and 5 other relievers, I don’t think there would be a lot of innings to be had.
Fuentes is still my first choice for the 6th spot if he can be had at a reasonable price, however, I would be pefectly good with Capuano getting the final spot if he accepted that role and could be had for $1M or $2M at the most.
I'd prefer contributing $4 million to Capuano for one year
To 3 years of Fuentes at the same price.
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by Ben Buchanan on Dec 28, 2010 6:54 PM EST up reply actions
I don't get that
I understand that you wouldn’t want to commit $10M/year to Fuentes but if you throw out his ‘09 campaign, he has been very consistent and effective against lefties. Would I prefer a 2 year deal with a club option for $4M/year? Absolutely. However, if I could have Fuentes for 3/$12M I wouldn’t hesitate to pull the trigger but it appears I’m in the minority.
Years on an aging guy
And I like Capuano’s ability as a #6 starter.
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by Ben Buchanan on Dec 28, 2010 7:19 PM EST up reply actions
6th Starter
I would agree but you’ve got Wakefield already in the fold and I don’t see them cutting him anytime soon. Second, if you don’t believe in Wakefield as the 6th, you could always call up Doubront and keep Wakefield as a multiple innings bullpen arm and 7th starter. However, I’ll split the difference with you. Sign both Fuentes and Capuano and call it an off season! :)
While He'd Make a Great Starter
Does he want to be a number 6? He knows he’s capable of being in the starting rotation from day one, so I don’t expect him to be here unless being on a winning team is more important than playing time.
Fuentes for 2 years should be enough.
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I in with that minority on Fuentes.
But I’m not sure it is the actual minority. The fact of the matter is that this year is a buyers market for relievers. Someone over at boston.com put a team together of available free agents and the bullpen was excellent with only the current free agents, including Soriano and Fuentes. I doubt Fuentes is going to get a chance to close for anybody, like Jenks, so is price just dropped by millions there. Add to the fact that a more prototypical closer, Soriano, is still out there and Fuentes is in his late 30’s, and it looks like Fuentes will come relatively cheaply. Does anybody think he will get more than Jenks? Why not offer a similar deal to Fuentes? Fuentes numbers look fine relative to Jenks.
The only one who would disagree is Fuentes.
And his agent. Which is exactly why he hasn’t signed anymore.
My offers for Fuentes would go as such:
1 yr /4mil
2 yr /7mil
3 yr /9mil
He seems adamant about getting a 3 yr deal, which is fine, but he’s gotta give up something in that case, and I have an issue to paying 3mil a year for him.
"Phil is obviously a good coach. You don't win that many games without being a damn good coach, ... Remember one thing: He's been very fortunate. He picks his spots. That's all I can say." - Red Auerbach
Goddamnit Ben
Capuano was the subject of my OTM: Outside the Box article this week. There goes three hours of research down the drain.
I'm a 7 WAR player in bed.
Official Baker of Red Sox Nation
How about Mark Hendrickson? You could do him.
by Marisa Ingemi on Dec 28, 2010 7:13 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Or go even further
Can you say “Julio LOOGY?”
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by Ben Buchanan on Dec 28, 2010 7:22 PM EST up reply actions
I posted my article for next week
but now I’m a week ahead of where I should be.
I'm a 7 WAR player in bed.
Official Baker of Red Sox Nation
by TheLoneDavid on Dec 28, 2010 8:07 PM EST up reply actions
Can't count Wake out in 2011.
I like it. Capuano + Wake + ??? = awesome front end of any bullpen to start the season. After the last few years we DO know that no-one knows what the Pen or Rotation will look like by June? Could surgically rebounded Capuano perform better than Fuentes? If so, and he would cost fewer $$ and years (at ages 32 vs 35), IMO there’s no real debate, even if he requires bonuses and incentives to start in the Pen. Still rather get Soria and keep him from the NYY.
FWIW
I believe the offer with the incentives preceded adding both FAs. He also said he wanted to be a starter.
Don't see the deal here
Obviously Capuano wants to start. He has always started. He would have to be down an out to take a one year deal to be a spot starter/reliever with anybody. Playing his agent, I would exhaust every starting job opportunity first. If the Sox are offering this $4mil. 6th starter/reliever job and another team is offering a starting rotation job for one year, $3 mil, I advise him to keep his starter mantle and take the starter job.
From the Sox perspective, I’m sure they would be interested in a reasonable money short term flier on Capuano, but I don’t see it happening.
Can't see this happening at all.
In other news, Saito signed for under 2mil. I would have liked that.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
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NL pitchers
dont pitch very well in the AL beast. Carl Pavano any one? How about Smoltz, Penny, terrible in the Beast and preatty dang good everywhere else. This kid is a starter and I dont think he can give you anything that Doubront cant. PASS
Jeffrey M Melhorn

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