"40 in 40" - A Look at the Roster: Buchholz, Clay
by BobZupcic on Dec 22, 2010 10:30 AM EST
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PrintName: Buchholz, Clay (Starter, Bats:L, Throws:R, #:11)
Age (as of 4/1/11): 26
Size: 6' 3" 190 lbs
Acquired: Drafted in the 1st round (supplemental) of the 2005 Amatuer Draft
Contract: Pre-Arb, Arb Eligible 2012
Comments: Buchholz dominated every step of the way during his minor league years and showed a glimpse of his potential in a brief ML stint in 2007. He regressed a bit in 08 but bounced back with a solid performance in 09 going 7-4 with a 4.21 ERA in 92 innings. Last year he was given a firm spot in the rotation and never looked back. Clay posted a league leading 187 ERA+ in 2010 to go along with his 2.33 ERA and 17 wins. His fielding independent numbers (4.20 xFIP) belie his fantastic season a bit, but he still showed that he belongs at the major level and has the stuff to be a very good starter for years to come. Clay boasts a 94 mph fastball that he uses about 50% of the time and a + changeup that runs 82 mph with good break. He also throws a 90 mph slider and mixes in a cutter as well.
Career Stats:
Innings: 364+
ERA: 3.68
FIP: 4.08
xFIP: 4.16
K/9: 6.97
BB/9: 3.80
K/BB: 1.83
Unique Stat: Buchholz likes the Birds (not the Hitchcock film). In 19 career starts against the birds from Baltimore and Toronto, Clay has posted a 11-5 record and a 2.72 ERA
Analysis: Buchholz teams with Jon Lester to form a young and enviable front of the rotation duo for the Sox. It will be interesting to see how he handles 2011 as he is likely due for a statistical regression due to factors somewhat out of his control (luck, etc.) He needs to improve his K/BB rate a bit and increase his swings and misses to improve his case as a top of the rotation starter. Look for a season more in line with a 3.50-4.00 ERA.
Tomorrow: Mike Cameron
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The thing that I have noticed most about the Stickbug
is his body language. His demeanor.
He stands so much more confidently on the mound now. In the past, if a couple of runners got on base you could see the impending doom on his face. He’s just so much more able to handle the stressful situations now.
For me, that was his biggest stride in 2010. I am really excited to see his continued growth.
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Buchholz had some pretty great peripherals
in the minors and while I think he won’t be lucky enough to duplicate his ERA from last year, I think his FIP will improve a bit more as he progresses. He has a fantastic curve when it is working and given the difference in velocity from his fastball his change could be devastating.
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Really?
After posting an ERA sub-2.50 over 173+ innings, why on Earth would he regress so terribly to the “3.50-4.00 ERA” range? Is he suddenly prone to the giving up the “big inning” a la Josh Beckett? I don’t understand the sentiment that his ERA would climb so drastically, please elaborate…
because his peripherals indicate that he was lucky a lot
basically, for most pitchers, peripherals such as strikeout rate, walk rate, and home run rate can be used to more accurately estimate future performance than ERA does. There are some exceptions (though in my experience, those tend to be pitchers whose ERA tends to be worse than their peripherals indicate).
This
wolf hit it on the head. Look at Lester’s 2009 season, which by many metrics was a better preformance than Buchholz’s 2010. Lester’s ERA was 3.41 compared to a xFIP of 3.13, meaning he was a bit unlucky when it came to his run average. Buchholz’s 2010 he posted a 2.33 ERA vs. a 4.20 xFIP. This is not to say I think Clay will be a poor pitcher in 2011, but due to luck variances he is most likely going to be looking at a higher ERA
My hope for Buchholz
Is that he continues to become a better pitcher, so his peripherals catch up to his 2010 results and he continues to be an elite pitcher!
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