Red Sox Likely To Tender Contract To Jonathan Papelbon
by Ben Buchanan on Dec 2, 2010 6:26 PM EST
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PrintMore news on this busy day: a major league source has told Rob Bradford that the Red Sox will likely tender a contract to closer Jonathan Papelbon.
Papelbon, who turned 30-years-old last week, would likely make well over $10 million in arbitration after signing for $9.35 million last year. This in spite of a mediocre performance in 2010, where the once-dominant reliever proved all-too-hittable, posting career highs in ERA (3.90) and FIP (3.51). So inconsistent was Papelbon that many Red Sox fans have called for the team to non-tender or trade him, and move Daniel Bard into the role of closer.
While Papelbon will at least fill a spot in the Red Sox' questionable bullpen, at $10 million they could likely have found more and better options. If Papelbon can bounce back, he'll be worth it, but with two straight years of decline, that's not exactly a likely scenario.
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Everyone knew this was coming
The certified ambassador of all things good and great, here at OTM.
DO NOT OVERPAY FOR BELTRE !!!
TRADE ELLSBURY THIS WINTER !!!
One of the many, proud OTM'ers that cannot stand Josh Beckett.
Yep
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Dec 2, 2010 6:36 PM EST up reply actions
Bobby Jenks
non tendered by the white sox cause he made 7.5M last year while posting a 4.44 ERA with good peripherals: FIP: 2.59 and xFIP: 2.62. That ERA is mostly a result of BABIP: .368. He also posted a career high 10.42K/9 last year.
Good candidate for the Red Sox. Cheaper than paps, no draft pick cost.
by German Red Sox Fan on Dec 2, 2010 6:35 PM EST reply actions
I was thinking the same exact thing
Isn’t he a bit younger too?
"Common sense is quite rare." - Voltaire
The Artist Formerly Known as PacoL250
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How does this look for your 'pen?
Wakefield
Buchholz
Guerrier
Atchinson
Downs
Jenks
Bard
Papelbon
If I was your math homework I'd be really hard and you'd be doing me on your desk.
I'm a 7 WAR player in bed.
by TheLoneDavid on Dec 2, 2010 11:45 PM EST up reply actions
Clay Buchholz in the Pen? or Taylor?
Looks great but expensive.
Paps 11M
Jenks 6M
Downs 7M
Wake makes 3M?
looks like a 30M dollar bullpen
by German Red Sox Fan on Dec 3, 2010 2:38 AM EST up reply actions
Taylor
This post was from before we non-tendered him.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
It might be expensive
but it’d be lights out, which would be nice after the last couple years. Also I think it’s more like 10/5/7 as opposed to 11/6/7 Paps won’t get 11mm in arb, not after last year.
If I was your math homework I'd be really hard and you'd be doing me on your desk.
I'm a 7 WAR player in bed.
He'll get it
I can’t think of a single player really to take a pay cut in their final year of arbitration, regardless of how bad they played. He’s going to get that raise, whether we give it to him or the arbitrator does.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
Didn't he earn 9mm this year?
10 isn’t a pay cut, but it’s certainly not 11.
If I was your math homework I'd be really hard and you'd be doing me on your desk.
I'm a 7 WAR player in bed.
$9.35M
He said he’ll be seeking $11.5M this year in arbitration. Typically it’s about a 20% raise in the final year, which will put him pretty close to his number. I suspect the number Theo offers will be lower. Papelbon hasn’t really seemed to be the compromise sort and the arbitrator can only pick one of the two numbers rather than make up his own.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
Look at the Mariano Rivera deal
Mo got a $30 mil. 2-year deal. Papplebon can point to that deal and say he is worth 75% of that when you stack up the performance of the two. Remember, he is not trying to say he is owed the same money, just some percentage. Also, if the arbiter is truly impartial, he can’t take the lifetime acheivement award part of the Yanks/Mo deal into consideration. Papplebon will get his $11 mil. and it it is really OK with me.
I'm not sure Paps can point to this year and say he's worth 75% of Mo
Considering that he could be seen as half as good as himself the year before.
It looks nice
but carrying 13 pitchers seems unlikely and not like a good idea. I’d take that minus Guerrier, gladly.
this is cool
paps has to get his value up to be traded or to make any money in FA next fall.
he comes back tougher in april and has a good season baring injuries.
not much cool about it really
The certified ambassador of all things good and great, here at OTM.
DO NOT OVERPAY FOR BELTRE !!!
TRADE ELLSBURY THIS WINTER !!!
One of the many, proud OTM'ers that cannot stand Josh Beckett.
beats getting nuthin'
than, like so many red sox’ RP before him, goes elsewhere to become a born again star.
Well now we can account for Okajima's non-tender money
Going into Papelbon’s raise for his awesome performance.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
Yawn
No big surprise here. Bard is poised to take over in ’12 with the Sox pocketing picks with a Papelbon departure.
Said like it's a certainty
It might be VERY risky to offer Papelbon arbitration if he threepeats next season with another thumbs-down performance. Teams don’t like to give up picks for a reliever, especially one that has been in decline and would cost a lot. We may be stuck with him, or without the picks.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
Very good point.
Lets say Papelbon has another season like last season. He would then just accept arbitration, because nobody is gonna pay him even close to 11M on the freemarket if he is a Type A, not even remotely. So realistically we dont get picks for Paps unless he has a real bounceback season, which given his steady decline seems unlikely.
Without us getting picks next year this contract is another misstep by Theo, especially considering the FA market w Soriano, Jenks, Downs and Rivera. Sofar he is 0-3 in my book this offseason (I get V-mart but signing Tek and Paps is just wrong ihmo)
by German Red Sox Fan on Dec 3, 2010 3:30 AM EST up reply actions
I'm not against signing Paps
If he bounces back, we get picks, if not we get nothing, which is what we’d get now.
Ok
Say we sign Downs and someone else for a combined $11 million, as opposed to keeping Papelbon and signing Downs for $17 million. I think that 5 million for the assurance your pen will be better (yes Paps is declining, but he’s still really good) and a possible draft pick next year might be work it. Aren’t 1st round picks considered worth $7-10 million? Of course I could be remembering that number from nowhere.
if it were up to me,
there’s already money allocated to the pen. I sincerely hope that Downs is in the pen next year either way. If it were me, I’d have non-tendered him, taken that $11 million check, and written it out to Rafael Soriano.
I’m not sure what 1st round picks are considered worth. That seems like a ton to me.
But is Soriano going to be that much better than Paps?
Wouldn’t we also be giving the Rays a 1st rounder?
Looks a lot better to me
and hasn’t been declining annually.
And for the other part, yes, unless we are signing Werth (the only higher rated player by Elias), which frankly seems pretty likely to me (I’m guessing greater than 50% chance that we sign Werth). But they’re going to get a draft pick from somewhere for him anyways and it’s not like they’ll be getting a great first round pick from us if they do.
Nothing is ever a certainty
However, it’s not a stretch to think that Bard could handle the closer’s role. If Papelbon rebounds in ‘11 (motivated by a long term FA deal), it’s also not a major leap of faith to think that some team will bring him into their fold at the expense of a draft pick. If ‘11 is even worse that ’10, it didn’t work out, they don’t offer arbitration and offer him a much less lucrative deal and/or let him walk. However, for an organization that likes to flex its financial muscle (for the right players) while being aggressive in the draft, this doesn’t seem to be the riskiest of approaches.
I understand why we should bring him back, but I don't understand why we need to give him a raise.
Why would someone with those numbers be given an increase in salary when it was already so high to begin with?
it's just the way of life, arbitration, and precedents
Paps said he’s looking for $11.5 million. I imagine the Sox try to talk him down to as much lower than that as they can without actually ruining Theo’s never-gone-to-arbitration streak.
I wish arbitration was available to the average working person
by Florida Johnny on Dec 2, 2010 8:43 PM EST up reply actions
it is
it’s just a lot more normal working people get non-tendered when they try to go to arbitration :)
THAT would've been Epic
SI_JonHeyman
#redsox tried to steal rivera with 3-year offer, im hearing. 2 more teams also offered 3. but rivera is close to $30-mil deal with #yankees
Twitter | "Almost every organization has a guy like Papelbon or Lester" - Dave Cameron 12/29/2005
It was never gonna happen.
If I was your math homework I'd be really hard and you'd be doing me on your desk.
I'm a 7 WAR player in bed.
by TheLoneDavid on Dec 2, 2010 11:46 PM EST up reply actions
sox did it to raise the signing ante
sox interest raised the cost to sign mariano
you could say that was a dirty rotten thing to do – the sox are dogs
or you could say cool, i love dogs
Perfectly happy to have Papplebon back for 2011
This is simiar to the Papi deal; sure we can say that Papps and Papi are not worth this money, but what is the alternative? Sure, we can start moving the parts and pieces around, but this is real baseball not fantasy. Papplebon is still a very good bullpen arm on a team that needs to add to the bullpen, not subtract.
I’m guessing the Sox are not even considering the possibility of non-tendering Papplebon. For one thing, he would need to be replaced with an equal or better arm and that is not going to be free.
It may not be free
but a three-year, 15mm deal to Bobby Jenks is a damn sight better than Papelbon for one year at 11mm.
If I was your math homework I'd be really hard and you'd be doing me on your desk.
I'm a 7 WAR player in bed.
That’s just crazy. It might make you feel better, but it sure as hell isn’t smarter.
by Jay on Dec 3, 2010 8:59 AM EST up reply actions
Signing a former closer with an FIP below 2 is crazy?
If I was your math homework I'd be really hard and you'd be doing me on your desk.
I'm a 7 WAR player in bed.
Below 3, sorry.
If I was your math homework I'd be really hard and you'd be doing me on your desk.
I'm a 7 WAR player in bed.
I have a feeling that in 2 years
Jenks could be worth what Papelbon is in one year. And would cost less.
screw the reply system
its meant to be for Jay.
Signing Jenks to 3Y/15M is like 10 times better than singning paps to 1Y/11
by German Red Sox Fan on Dec 3, 2010 10:18 AM EST up reply actions
Yes, but....
The Red Sox have to make a decision now on Papplebon. If they non-tender him, he can go out and get a multi-year contract from a team (Mets?) desperate for a closer. Sure, they could then go out and use that money to sign Jenks and Downs to multi-year contracts for about the same annual value as Papplebon in 2011, but there is no guarantee they sign with the Sox.
Like the Papi option, the Papplebon tender is an issue in the control of the Red Sox. There is risk in everything, but Papplebon has shown he can thrive in Boston under the most intense situations. Sure, he has had his issues the past two years, but he is still a good arm you can bring back.
The money is an overpay here
but Boston doesn’t have many options for their bullpen and not signing their second best reliever means having to replace even more arms. On the free market he would likely not get $11M for one year, but he could get a multi-year deal and leave town. As bad as Papelbon was last year, he is still a better pitcher than almost any other free agent reliever and the Sox do not have to commit to him beyond 2011.
- Matt Sullivan
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