Report: Athletics Could Sign Adrian Beltre As Soon As Tonight
by Jared Stegall on Dec 2, 2010 5:34 PM EST
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PrintAccording to ESPN.com's Jayson Stark (via insider), the Oakland Athletics are closing in on former Red Sox third baseman Adrian Beltre and could sign him as early as tonight.
There have been conflicting reports about Beltre and the A's as they were at one point rumored to have offered the third baseman a 5-year contract worth around 64 million dollars. However, A's GM Billy Beane later said that this offer was "news to him" when asked about it.
Now it appears that the A's could be on the verge of signing Beltre as they have been looking for a quick replacement for Kevin Kouzmanoff and Edwin Encarnacion before tonight's deadline to tender contracts to arbitration-eligible players. Kouzmanoff's name has been bounced around in trade rumors while Encarnacion is a non-tender candidate. The Angels have also expressed interest in the 31-year-old third baseman, and Beltre has said that he would prefer to play on the west coast, close to his California home.
If Beltre chooses to walk, this will free up money for the Red Sox to throw at Carl Crawford or Jayson Werth, whom the Sox have "serious" interest in. Boston met with Scott Boras late last night to discuss both Beltre and Werth. The front office also met with Crawford yesterday, leaving him "very, very impressed" with Theo Epstein and company.
Without Beltre, the door also opens back up on a possible Adrian Gonzalez trade, with Kevin Youkilis likely shifting to third base to open up first for Gonzo. They also have kicked around starting Jed Lowrie at third base, however he could end up with the starting shortstop job depending on whether or not Marco Scutaro is traded.
Either way, it appears that Beltre's one season in Boston could be his last.
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shocker
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"This team loves to lose in the fourth quarter" - Phil Jackson
Hm...Before the season I had the Sox pegged to make at least two major deals.
It’ll be interesting to see how that plays out. I just can’t see them entering 2011 with anything less than a “premium” product after what happened in 2010.
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Eh
Does anyone really think he will be as good as he was last season, not only next year, but in the next 4-5? Because he’s ultimately going to be paid that way.
Sad to see him go, but the money can be used elsewhere now.
If he were paid what he was worth last year
This would be a six-digit deal.
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I understand that he isn’t going to be paid like a guy who consistently puts up the numbers he put up last year, but ultimately those numbers combined with the barren nature of the 3rd basemen market means some team is going to be paying a lot more money than I believe he will ultimately be worth over the life of a contract.
In the end I believe the Sox will be better off putting the money elsewhere.
You mean a nine-figure deal, no?
I assume you’re talking about Beltre’s value and not Lugo’s, fo whom a six-figure deal migh actually be generous.
Fenway: "An alternate and better universe, disguised as a ballpark." --Thomas Boswell
even better!
Brett Anderson is the Truth. Brett Anderson is divine presence. Brett Anderson is eternal life. Brett Anderson is within you. Brett Anderson is here. Brett Anderson is Now.
by Frederick0220 on Dec 2, 2010 9:37 PM EST up reply actions
haha
Brett Anderson is the Truth. Brett Anderson is divine presence. Brett Anderson is eternal life. Brett Anderson is within you. Brett Anderson is here. Brett Anderson is Now.
by Frederick0220 on Dec 2, 2010 9:37 PM EST up reply actions
+1
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by Marisa Ingemi on Dec 2, 2010 6:12 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I believe in Theo and company
Let whatever happens happen.
The certified ambassador of all things good and great, here at OTM.
DO NOT OVERPAY FOR BELTRE !!!
TRADE ELLSBURY THIS WINTER !!!
One of the many, proud OTM'ers that cannot stand Josh Beckett.
Same.
Oakland can have fun with average offensive production out of Beltre for the next 5 years.
Brett Anderson is the Truth. Brett Anderson is divine presence. Brett Anderson is eternal life. Brett Anderson is within you. Brett Anderson is here. Brett Anderson is Now.
by Frederick0220 on Dec 2, 2010 9:38 PM EST up reply actions
Nope, a low one...
The A’s have the last protected pick, I think…
Wait 'til next/this year?
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by nuthinboutnuthin on Dec 2, 2010 7:27 PM EST up reply actions
Well that stinks if its true
because they had the exact same regular season record as the tigers. Who’s pick was unprotected.
by beantownboy171 on Dec 2, 2010 7:29 PM EST up reply actions
I dunno...
… you’re right about the records, but MLBTR suggests that the A’s pick is protected while the Tigers pick is not. Tiebreaker or something?
Wait 'til next/this year?
"Laser show. So relax."
by nuthinboutnuthin on Dec 2, 2010 8:07 PM EST up reply actions
It goes by last year's record
Tiger’s had a better record last year, so they’re higher this year, hence A’s being protected and Tiger’s aren’t.
by South Coast Ghost on Dec 2, 2010 9:03 PM EST up reply actions
If I were Theo, I actually would hope this is true
because I’d hop right in and offer something like 5/66. I’m thinking that the only reason Beltre would accept a deal to Oakland is if they were paying the most money. Has nobody else made hims significant offers? Because, I can’t believe that if the money were equal or if Boston’s offer was more (even just a tiny bit more) he would prefer not to play in a piece of crap football stadium pitcher’s park that has two fans in the stadium. Oh, and Oakland isn’t exactly a championship contender. A contract in the range of 5/64 – 5//70 isn’t great, but it isn’t terrible. His WAR range while in Seattle was 2.5-4.9, which was in a pitcher’s park. He’d be hitting in Fenway, which pretty much guarantees better hitting numbers than those in Safeco. However, my only problem is how he would decline over the 5 year deal.
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Super +1
I’m thinking that the only reason Beltre would accept a deal to Oakland is if they were paying the most money.
I was absolutely going to make exactly this post. Shitty stadium, shitty team. Assuming there’s any truth at all to the rumor, I think Beltre would do better signing a 4/60 with the Sox or the Angels.
Wait 'til next/this year?
"Laser show. So relax."
by nuthinboutnuthin on Dec 2, 2010 7:57 PM EST up reply actions
Its not fantastic or anything
but Id probably be willing to wager he provides at least $70m of value over the next 5 years – and then factor in he’s the only great 3B option available and already showed he’s a great fit on this team…
Did Mike Lowell
hit homers off of his knees?
by Florida Johnny on Dec 2, 2010 8:36 PM EST up reply actions
At least twice as much as a normal homer, I think.
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by Ben Buchanan on Dec 2, 2010 8:42 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
a) That’s not a ridiculous number.
b) Beltre played his entire career previous to landing in Boston in parks that highly suppress batting AVG (and consequently BABIP). I can only assume this has led you to misunderstand his true talent level.
c) His batted ball profile supports a higher BABIP like that to some degree (19.1% LD, 40+% GB)
d) The guy’s career BABIP is .294. As I said in point “b” that is deflated from his actual ability because of Dodger Stadium and SafeCo’s Cavernous environs
e) Even if we assume his true talent is “only” .294 the rest of what he does (mainly power & defense) would still let him be a very, very valuable player.
Beltre didn’t change what he was doing this year. The park changed. This didn’t surprise many people to see him have a great year in Boston. Most Saber types saw it coming – and there’s plenty of good reasons for that.
Ok, sure, he got lucky, too – but not really THAT much. He’s an excellent ballplayer.
Agreed. I would like to see him back if it’s for Drew money
by Florida Johnny on Dec 2, 2010 8:46 PM EST up reply actions
He's a good ballplayer
He is not an excellent ballplayer by any stretch. He had 2 great years, both in contract seasons. He is declining by virtue of age, and will soon be little more than an average bat. You cannot give anything close to $15m a year for a declining slightly above average player.
I'd say he's pretty excellent.
Had a borderline HOF career already and his 2010 is better than 99.9% of most players’ best season.
He’s had about 6 All Star-ish level season by my count.
Beltre: 108 OPS+
Baker: 135
Boggs: 130
Brett: 135
Collins: 113 (old timers selection)
Kell: 115 (Veteran’s committee)
Lindstrom: 110 (Veteran’s committee)
Mathews: 143
Robinson: 104 (greatest fielder in baseball history)
Schmidt: 147
Traynor: 107
So, Pie Traynor aside, he’s not even close.
It is possible
That Mike Lowell literally created a resume of his fielding prowess, and Brooks Robinson never has. In that case, yes.
That's great. Now lets account for defense (using WAR). Which is a large part of Beltre's value, since he's one of the finest 3B to ever put on a glove.
Schmidt: 110.5
Mathews: 107.2
Boggs: 94.8
Robinson: 94.6
Brett: 91.6
Santo: 79.3 (just for the hell of it, since he SHOULD be in)
Rolen: 71.6
Baker: 65.8 (somewhat unfair as he missed time to raise his kids after the death of his wife)
Collins: 54.6
Beltre: 50.8 (and he’s only 31 yo)
Kell: 43.4
Traynor: 42.4
Lindstrom: 34.4 (and played a decent amount of OF)
Yeah, I was waaaaay off calling him a borderline HOFer already.
he is not an HOF candidate
He averages about 4 WAR, meaning he’d need 8 more seasons to match a guy who isn’t in the HOF. He would need 6 more seasons, at age 31, if you give him an extra point of WAR for Fenway (and he somehow doesn’t regress).
I don't care if he makes the HOF or not.
& that really had little to do with my original point. Nonetheless I will stand by my assertion that he’s already had a borderline HOF career (or close enough).
It might interest you to know that 3B is the least represented position in the Hall, btw (unless we’re counting relievers as a separate position). Santo should EASILY be in. Way in. To compare to some other positions, lets take the example of Jim Rice. Made the Hall, but a pretty borderline guy. I wasn’t against his inclusion – I was pretty blah on the whole subject. I certainly didn’t think it would be an outrage if he made it. Rice’s career total WAR was 56.1. You get in the 50’s you’re in borderline territory. As you can see above, lots of guys are in having done less in their career.
JD Drew is at 46.9, btw. Another guy who is tremendously underrated because people don’t know how to value players correctly. Drew will likely end up with a career just a bit shy of Rice’s. Interestingly, Drew’s best season (with Atlanta) is better than any season by Rice. That year Drew batted .305/.436/.569 w/ 31 HRs and fantastic defense (+16.3 UZR / +15 runs by Dewan).
There's a case to be made
That for much of his career, Rice was the 2nd or third best outfielder on the Red Sox. I’m happy he’s in, not sure if I agree with it.
Beltre would need several more above-average (for him) seasons to be a possible borderline, and that’s if you ignore the natural bias that writers have to a 3B who was never the best or even the 2nd best at his position in the majors.
Beltre was arguably the best player at his position THIS year.
As well as easily the best in 2004.
Considering he’s only 31 I don’t think a few more above average seasons are all that much to ask. Plus, as I’ve said before, Beltre profiles as a guy who will stick around a long while. Excellent defense & young player skills = graceful aging profile.
Somewhere,
we need to have some offense. We currently have next to nothing. Beltre won’t give us any offense.
to say he won't give us any offense is silly
he won’t be the offensive player he was last year, but he’s always been a solid offensive player away from his cavernous home fields.
He's an ok hitter
He still can’t take a walk, and I believe everyone overstates his home performance. Seems to me that he just hits better on the road.
Also
a part of the whole HOF thing is how good he is compared to his peers. David Wright (dramatically better hitter), Rolen (Better hitter, great glove), Slappy (future HR champ), and a whole host of new kids (longo, Zimmerman, etc) are all consistently at or far-surpassing his level. 3B has been a traditionally weak position, and now we suddenly have great players.
Soooo
You argue against Beltre using this group of players. Then when alskor uses this same group you say that Beltre should be compared to his peers? How does this work?
by Florida Johnny on Dec 2, 2010 11:24 PM EST up reply actions
The curious case of Beltre's BABIP.
Interestingly, Beltre’s always had one BABIP problem: going the other way. On balls to right field, Beltre has a .245 career BABIP. This is due to a large tendency for fly balls that way and in spite of a tendency for line drives. In 2010, that number was .289.
Now, many people would say that Beltre’s BABIP bump comes from being in Fenway, but there’s not a lot of evidence to bear that out. Fenway’s RF is cavernous, as we all know, which has kept Beltre’s HR/FB fairly static in that direction, so the fly balls should still be having just as much of a negative impact on his BABIP. It’s also noteworthy that Beltre’s BABIP was actually .270 at home, so there’s that, too.
Too much of Beltre’s BABIP is just inexplicable to me, which would make it luck-based. He’ll still be a good offensive player, just not nearly the one he was in 2010.
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by Ben Buchanan on Dec 3, 2010 12:26 AM EST up reply actions
my biggest fear if the Sox re-sign him
is that everyone (away from this site) is going to expect him to be the same offensive player he was this year.
Yeah it’s interesting that while I figured he’d be much better leaving safeco, he was actually better on the road than at Fenway.
Mike Lowell destroyed his hip in a freak career-ending injury.
Are you really telling me Beltre will do the same?
If I was your math homework I'd be really hard and you'd be doing me on your desk.
I'm a 7 WAR player in bed.
He was a mediocre player
entering his mid-30s coming off of a BABIP-fueled career year who couldn’t afford to regress. Even without the injury, Lowell’s contract was idiocy.
Lowell's contract was for more than he was worth.
But Beltre’s contract will not end the same way as Lowell’s did.
If I was your math homework I'd be really hard and you'd be doing me on your desk.
I'm a 7 WAR player in bed.
by TheLoneDavid on Dec 2, 2010 11:32 PM EST up reply actions
Beltre is going to avoid annihilating his hip.
That’s the entire reason Lowell played as poorly as he did, his hip had basically fallen apart, he couldn’t use it at all. The fact that you’re ignoring his career-ending injury is lunacy.
If I was your math homework I'd be really hard and you'd be doing me on your desk.
I'm a 7 WAR player in bed.
No,
the fact that we signed an aging player who was slightly above average coming off of a feel-good BABIP season was lunacy. He couldn’t afford to regress, injury or not. Regardless of the unsurprising injury, he had a freakin’ 103 OPS+ in 2008. And we were paying him $13m.
How can you call the injury unsurprising?
This isn’t tendonitis or a sprained ankle we’re talking about. Lowell tore all of the tissue that holds the ball of his femur into the socket of his hip away. All of it. He had a 103 OPS+ with what amounts to a constantly dislocated knee.
If I was your math homework I'd be really hard and you'd be doing me on your desk.
I'm a 7 WAR player in bed.
Hip rather, not knee.
I’ve been doing that all night.
If I was your math homework I'd be really hard and you'd be doing me on your desk.
I'm a 7 WAR player in bed.
Players are more likely to get injured as they enter their mid 30s
That’s why you don’t sign players for big money into their mid 30s unless they are studs to begin with.
My main point is that, regardless of injury, signing a player with Lowell’s skillset to that deal, right as he entered his decline, was idiotic.
Had Lowell not injured his hip
He still would have been a defensive wizard. Yes, his bat would have slowly tailed off, but if he had continued to play defense like he had prior to 2008 then he could very well have been worth the 13 mil per year. Beltre is both a better hitter and a better defender than Lowell, he keeps himself in fabulous shape, and is one tough motherf*cker, he could very well still be putting up 4 WAR seasons into his age 39-40 years. Barring a freakish injury he could very well be worth what the Sox pay for him every single year of his contract.
If I was your math homework I'd be really hard and you'd be doing me on your desk.
I'm a 7 WAR player in bed.
Not so fast! Beltre's 1st/2nd half Splits
1st Half: .330/.370/.537 OPS+: 145 BABIP: .362
2nd Half: .309/.360/.574 OPS+: 156 BABIP: .296
Twitter | "Almost every organization has a guy like Papelbon or Lester" - Dave Cameron 12/29/2005
Thank you.
The home & road splits are telling as well, I believe.
Yeah, if you're going to 5, the AAV really has to get cut down towards 12 at most.
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that is an awful contract
Brett Anderson is the Truth. Brett Anderson is divine presence. Brett Anderson is eternal life. Brett Anderson is within you. Brett Anderson is here. Brett Anderson is Now.
by Frederick0220 on Dec 2, 2010 9:38 PM EST up reply actions
You
just want Beltre to sign with Oakland to win Brett Anderson some more games and make Brett look good
by Florida Johnny on Dec 2, 2010 11:27 PM EST up reply actions
Methinks Jayson Stark is wrong
http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/extras/extra_bases/2010/12/beltre_hopes_to.html
Unless Dr. Octopus Boras just hasn’t told Beltre yet that he forged his signature
I fixed it:
I would to play with these guys again," Beltre said. "I was disappointed Victor (Martinez) left becausehe helped make me comfortableI was looking forward to kicking his ass for rubbing my head. But I had a feeling that would happen because he wasn’t happy with how (the Red Sox) approached it with him. But I would still come back. I liked playing there and I want to be with a contender.
Wait 'til next/this year?
"Laser show. So relax."
by nuthinboutnuthin on Dec 2, 2010 8:09 PM EST up reply actions
But the free agent third baseman is waiting to see what other options open up to him and maintained that his preference is to return to the Boston Red Sox.
“I got used to seeing that park full in the first inning and still full in the ninth inning. I liked that atmosphere,” he said during an exclusive interview with the Globe. "If everything was close to the same, I would go back to Boston. But we have to see.
This is the stuff I love to hear…
by alskor on Dec 2, 2010 8:20 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
God knows Oakland is the polar opposite ATM.
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Right...
If that stuff is important to him AT ALL… I mean, they cover the upper decks so you don’t notice the place is empty!
I think its funny when people argue he wont be as good as 2010 again
so he isnt worth that contract. He doenst even need to be close to 2010 to be worth 5/64 he needs to accumulate roughly 2.8 WAR a season or a total of 14 WAR to be worth that contract.That isnt even accounting for the average 9% annual revenue growth in Baseball. While i dont like that 5th year i think he will break that number. He has averaged around 4WAR in his career so i give him a very good chance to crack that 14 WAR.
by German Red Sox Fan on Dec 3, 2010 4:18 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
2.8 WAR would make him the 77th best player in baseball
Do you really want to give $13m+ over 5 years to someone like that?
Beltre will decline as he ages, because that’s what players do. We were lucky to get him for a contract season when he wasn’t injured, and now we should bid him adieu.
I dont care where that ranks him.
If my math isnt betraying me 5/64 is 12.8M so that less than 13M. The point is you never wanna sign a guy over 30. Its pretty tough to compete every single year without signing FA who are 30+. All i’m saying that he will be worth that contract.
by German Red Sox Fan on Dec 3, 2010 11:03 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I'm fine signing Werth for 4, maybe 5
Because he’s starting off at a higher plane. Just don’t sign people you can’t afford to have regress.
But Werths contract will also be higher than Beltres
If both would land in boston i’d say beltre over the next 4 years will be within 1.5 total WAR to Werth.
by German Red Sox Fan on Dec 3, 2010 12:09 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
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