Matt Guerrier Headed To Dodgers As Red Sox' Bullpen Options Thin
by Ben Buchanan on Dec 15, 2010 12:05 PM EST
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Relief pitcher Matt Guerrier, long-tied to the Red Sox and seemingly the focus of their efforts, now appears to be headed to the Dodgers. Newsday had the story first.
While the Red Sox have been hugely successful making the big move so far this offseason, they are having a bit of trouble with the smaller ones. They've struck out on every good relief pitcher so far, along with catcher Russell Martin who went to the Yankees yesterday. As it stands, the Red Sox' bullpen is actually weaker today than at the end of the 2010 season.
That being said, Matt Guerrier isn't the biggest loss in the world. While the Sox were apparently focused on him, and his ERA was nice and low, his peripherals told an entirely unimpressive story.
Options remain on the market, but the Sox have to get moving.
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Well, Guerrier with his Albers-like peripherals wasn't going to make the difference.
But, yes, a discouraging trend.
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by Ben Buchanan on Dec 15, 2010 12:17 PM EST up reply actions
Agree completely
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Dec 15, 2010 12:28 PM EST up reply actions
I agree that he wasn't the difference maker
but think you’re being wayyyy too kind to Albers about his walk rate.
Offset largely by GB%
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by Ben Buchanan on Dec 15, 2010 1:09 PM EST up reply actions
Sure,
but the more crappy bullpen arms we have around, the greater the chance somebody turns in a non-crappy season.
Just like last year!
Wuh…wait….
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
Just didn't have enough crappy guys last season apparently
Obviously I’d like some actually good pitchers, but apparently that won’t be happening.
Ellsbury for relief! Ellsbury for relief!
you keep bringing up last year as a example
when it just proves how ridiculously hard it is to build a bullpen. 2 years ago the sox had the best bullpen in baseball last year pretty much same relief pitchers on opening day and the bullpen was awful. giving relief pitchers 3 year deals is very very risky. look at benoit tigers gave him 16 million 3 years he was a non roster invitee to the rays last year. the safest and best way to build a bullpen is from within . in my opinion. theo will get some arms in here plenty of time.
Last year the Red Sox signed no solid relief pitchers.
It was proof that, as difficult as a bullpen is to build, it must be built to be successful. You can’t just hope it will fix itself.
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by Ben Buchanan on Dec 15, 2010 1:11 PM EST up reply actions
going into last season
they thought the bullpen was a strength yes they brought some low risk high reward guys to find a diamond in the rough it worked with atchinson. but like i said 2 years ago they had a great bullpen full of younger players like bard delcarmen okijima ramirez papelbon they lost saito and of course as expected wagner. but coming into season no one saw the dramatic fall of the sox bullpen i didnt expect it to be as dominant as the year before. relievers are a hard thing to figure out. my opinion best way to build a bullpen is from within.
I don't know if many people on OTM
considered the bullpen a “strength”. Maybe I’m misremembering, but most were skeptical of the plan…and rightly so.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
in 2009 the sox bullpen era was 3.80
second best in american league. it also only accounted for 17 losses tied for least amount.
Bullpen performance is one of the most difficult factors to predict in all of baseball; relievers’ results often vary dramatically from year to year. But the Red Sox had a group of pitchers in hand who had shown consistency over several years. i am not disagreeing with the state of the bullpen just saying its near impossible to predict the impact of relievers. from year to year they fluctuate so much.
Like I said already
And as Delaney also stated below, MDC, RamRam, and Oki all were showing signs of sharp decline. Papelbon, as well, frankly. None of them looked like sure things…and weren’t<./i>. The plan this year shouldn’t be the same as last year, when we had a flat-out shitty bullpen already.
I’m not saying that putting together a strong pen is easy, but that doesn’t mean you shouldn’t take strong steps to do it.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
but they weren't carrying over
a couple of the better performing pieces of that prior year’s pen. In particular Saito but also Wagner.
Together they accounted for 69 of the better-pitched innings by the bullpen in 2009. That was spread across a lot of games and made a huge difference in the w-l column.
So taking them away, it did not make a lot of sense to put too much faith in the lesser performing, declining parts making up that loss.
Based on what was the bullpen thought to be a strength going into last year?
MDC was awful in 2009. RamRam was inconsistent, and Oki’s numbers had been trending downward each year.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Dec 15, 2010 1:54 PM EST up reply actions
Papelbon – Coming off worst year of career
RamRam and MDC – Coming off crap second halves
Okajima – Steady decline
Bard – 2nd season
We had zero sure things. Even relative to other unreliable bullpen arms.
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by Ben Buchanan on Dec 15, 2010 1:56 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah, I keep bring up last year
And that’s because last year we went out and found a bunch of scrubs to shore up our bullpen, when we knew we needed something there. Throw it all against the wall and see what sticks. Atchison was the only thing that stuck. Kinda.
We knew that MDC and RamRam were iffy at best, we knew that Oki was declining and people were figuring him out. We got @#$%ing rocked because of it.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
Even Middle Relief isn't coming cheap this offseason
Still guys out there to pick from though: Feliciano, Fuentes, Crain, etc.
by South Coast Ghost on Dec 15, 2010 12:24 PM EST reply actions
Martin to the Yankees, from the Dodgers...
I think you mixed that line up with this news of Guerrier going to the Dodgers.
Honestly, I’d never heard of Guerrier before I saw his name pop up on here, so not sure this is much of a loss yet, other than the general trend that the places we still need to shore up this team are definitely the bullpen, and possibly at C, if we could find the right player at that spot.
I think you’ve already discussed the internal options for the bullpen, which exist… but probably not enough to fill it out completely.
Hope we get someone soon. I thought Downs was a foregone conclusion once we no longer had to give up a first rounder to sign him.
Martin went to MFY, right?
Have the sox been linked to any other relievers? I feel like there are still a few decent guys on the market who I haven’t heard any red sox related rumors about
They've been linked to a few who are still out there
Fuentes, Feliciano, Crain, maybe even Rauch early in the offseason.
by South Coast Ghost on Dec 15, 2010 12:36 PM EST up reply actions
question
for all the names of relievers getting thrown out there, I see no rumored interest by anyone or anyone really wanting Jon Rauch. This confuses me a bit as, while he isn’t dominating, he seems like a better, more reliable option than either Guerrier or Crain and seems less likely to get a closers job than Jenks.
Any particular reason to this anyone can think of? It baffles me that no one has suggested, in any rumors I’ve seen, that the Sox are in on either him or Jenks (but then again, I had no idea they’d be serious on Crawford, so maybe that just means that they’ll actually sign one of those guys)
xFIP worries me, especially given a move to Fenway.
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by Ben Buchanan on Dec 15, 2010 1:14 PM EST up reply actions
IMO, best reliever deal of the offseason so far, by a long shot:
A’s signing Harden for the bullpen for $1.5 million plus incentives. I wouldn’t trust Harden as even a 6th or 7th starter, but in relief, this guy could be absolutely devastating. And so cheap.
Just read that on The Twitter, too.
Ugh.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
Fuentes probably not coming here either.
How much more value are you getting out of a 2 year/$16m deal for Fuentes versus a 1 year/$4m deal for someone like Choate?
by South Coast Ghost on Dec 15, 2010 1:16 PM EST reply actions
A lot more value with Fuentes
Assuming he would accept a setup role, Fuentes’ splits with L/R batter are excellent as he appears to dominate lefthanders (.128 average in 2010!). Fuentes could be a great addition and a type-B FA to boot.
Meh
I think you might be attached to the name a bit here. I’m not really asking who’s the better pitcher, I’m asking who gives the better value on those (hypothetical) prospective deals.
What can Fuentes give you for an extra year and $12m that Choate can’t? Both do well against LHB and both are very bad against RHB.
Fuentes can set up, I guess, and while he’s bad against righties he’s not AS BAD as Choate, fine, but if you’re just looking for a LOOGY why not go a bit cheaper? And maybe you splurge a bit and pick up someone like Feliciano instead, who’s probably somewhere between the two.
by South Coast Ghost on Dec 15, 2010 4:27 PM EST up reply actions
As a reliever?
I would assume he wants to be a starter, and we already have 6
by superdaveyboy on Dec 15, 2010 1:23 PM EST up reply actions
Frasor accepted arbitration from the Jays I believe
And there are enough relievers still out there that I’m not going to say they “blew” this one yet.
by South Coast Ghost on Dec 15, 2010 1:47 PM EST up reply actions
Oh. I thought he was an FA.
OK, I liek Crain then and maybe a trade of some sort.
by Marisa Ingemi on Dec 15, 2010 1:48 PM EST up reply actions
How did the Sox blow this?
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Dec 15, 2010 1:54 PM EST up reply actions
How about this
Hanrahan plus Doumit from the Pirates for Bowden and someone else…maybe Coello?
I think I’ve posted on here before that I don’t like Doumit. However, he does hit RHP well, and we might need that. He can play catcher sometimes and maybe hide him in LF or some such. Hanrahan is a great reliever who would be an awesome setup man with Bard. The Pirates are known to really want to deal Doumit, so we should get him cheap. Bowden seems to have worn out his welcome in Boston and lost the confidence of everyone, but he should be good in the AL Central. Coello might not even be necessary, but I threw him in, probably he’s too much extra now that I think about it. But the Pirates need pitching, even middling pitching, and the Sox have some of that in their system.
Doumit may hit RHP
But can he catch RHP?
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Dec 15, 2010 2:12 PM EST up reply actions
Frankly he probably can't catch anything
But that’s par for the course with the Sox lately, and it hasn’t hurt them THAT much.
But why get Doumit when he can't hit or catch all-that-well?
It’s like taking Salty and replacing him with no-upside Salty…
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by Ben Buchanan on Dec 15, 2010 6:08 PM EST up reply actions
Well you have to use him as what he is
A bad defensive player who hits well against righties. I agree it wouldn’t be the most ideal thing, and I certainly don’t suggest him as a starter. I mostly want Hanrahan.
I saw an interesting "idea" from one of the writers on MLB Trade Rumors...
Scutaro for Meek or Hanrahan. There probably would be more to the deal, but PIT has been really looking for a SS this winter. What do you guys think?
I assume we'd have to pay most of Scoot's salary, seeing as it's Pittsburgh
I’d definitely do that for Meek (because of his year less of service time). Probably for Hanrahan. I like Scutaro a lot, but with Lowrie I view him as a cool but unnecessary luxury, whereas the pen is vital.
Big fat Blah to Doumit
Don’t want him at all. Just try and get Hanrahan or Meek
by South Coast Ghost on Dec 15, 2010 2:11 PM EST reply actions
Doumit is one of those catchers
That I would like less than salty.
by wolf9309 on Dec 15, 2010 2:24 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
All I Can Say Is
I miss Justin Masterson. Really, I do.
Once I’m out from work and settled in at home, I’m going to take an in-depth look at what’s left on the market.
"Common sense is quite rare." - Voltaire
The Artist Formerly Known as PacoL250
Resident Psychologist and Tech Support at Over the Monster: SB Nation's Resident Red Sox Web Site
If he comes home
I will be so happy. At least until the season starts, and then we hope he can do good out of the pen.
Where'd you hear/read about this rumor?
Or did you just make that up? ;-)
"Common sense is quite rare." - Voltaire
The Artist Formerly Known as PacoL250
Resident Psychologist and Tech Support at Over the Monster: SB Nation's Resident Red Sox Web Site
Masterson Rumor
"Laser show. So relax."
"For the Patriots [playing the Jets], it was like fighting Piston Honda knowing that every time he raises an eyebrow, he's about to throw a jab."
by nuthinboutnuthin on Dec 15, 2010 6:09 PM EST up reply actions
I'd be very much okay with this.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
I don't think there's much traction happening there though...
"Common sense is quite rare." - Voltaire
The Artist Formerly Known as PacoL250
Resident Psychologist and Tech Support at Over the Monster: SB Nation's Resident Red Sox Web Site
Sox/Theo on a familiar course
They don’t like to spend money on the bullpen, preferring to bring in projects, reclaimed veterans, or prospects from within. Remember, this is the same group that went with the infamous “bullpen by comittee” in 2003. My take is that with the value they are getting from Bard and the last year, most likely of Papplebon, they can and should spring for one solid veteran arm and they patch with the rest. Downs was my guy here.
My guess is they are trying to wait out the market, let the desperate teams make thier moves, and then pick up the pieces. It seems like there are more closers, or former closers (Fuentes, Jenks, Soriano, etc.) on the market than teams looking for a closer, so that may be an opportunity for the Sox.
ESPN site
ESPN has a good site for FA tracking. While the Sox seem to be wiffing on a few opportunites (Guerrier, Downs), there are a ton of decent releivers available, including Kerry Wood, who I was surprised to see is only 33.
Kerry Wood is not a good option
If we already had an awesome pen, then maybe take the chance, but he’s not going to solidify anything.
Not trying to be funny but anyone think oki will be back ?
by RED SOX are #1 in my heart on Dec 15, 2010 3:43 PM EST reply actions
He shouldnt
IF i am Okie’s agent, I put him on a team that is the farthest away from the AL East I can get. LA Dodgers looks like a good fit.
Takashi Saito
had a good season for himself last year, I notice….
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
Yes, Saito nice...
but a type A and 40 years old. May be a good value for one year an a couple of mil.
That's what I was thinking.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
Saito was not offered arbitration, no pick will be given up.
by South Coast Ghost on Dec 15, 2010 4:29 PM EST up reply actions
I'd definitely consider Saito for a one-year.
He and Rhodes seem to have the body type & pitching approach that just keeps on hanging in there and producing year after year. Eventually they have to fail, but in the mean time they seem to be able to make it work.
I wouldn’t gamble a multi on either of these guys, but signing one of them to a one-year makes sense.
In that case
I say sign him.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
Billy Wagner might be available if Theo can work some magic
If Wagner knew he was gonna get some time closing as well and maybe you sell the closer job on an interim basis when Papelbon walks…
Maybe?
slipped and hit enter
If I recall his usage with the Sox was very regimented. Was that only because he’d just come off surgery? Was he used the same way with the Braves this last year?
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