Best Case Scenario
by Marisa Ingemi on Dec 14, 2010 9:55 AM EST
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This offseason so far really has been perfect for the Red Sox. They were able to get their guy, Adrian Gonzalez for what many consider to be a steal. They got Carl Crawford, the best positional player on the market. But the best deal they made, they didn't even make.
I have stated before that the Yankees did not need Cliff Lee, and I still believe that. I think they can still be a playoff team, and think they will fight with the Red Sox for the AL East. They still have a very good offense and their bullpen has improved over the years, but their rotation is a concern.
They still have CC Sabathia, Phil Hughes, and AJ Burnett. I do not know what to expect from Hughes and Burnett, but we all know Sabathia will be great. Where do they go from here? First off, they want Andy Pettitte to sign. That would add that second left hander to the rotation and the closest thing to a sure thing other than Sabathia. After that, the pitching market is not terrible. If they were not waiting on Lee, they could have got Aaron Harang or maybe Bronson Arroyo.
But the Yankees do have Ivan Nova, who always impressed me. I think he will be pretty good, but they need somebody other than Sergio Mitre. I've always thought Zack Greinke was not a bad idea, but they will not part with Jesus Montero and Brett Gardner.
While the Yankees did not need him, as a team never really needs a player, this does help the Red Sox. Lee is out of the American League. Even if he signed in Texas, the Red Sox would face him about three times with their left handed lineup. This was the best case scenario for Boston.
Now, back to the Red Sox team. Joe Blanton? That cannot be true. Where would they put him? If they plan on moving Daisuke Matsuzaka, I guess Blanton would fit, but wouldn't you rather Carl Pavano or even Felix Doubront? I really think that move will not happen, nor should it. Joe Blanton has Brad Penny written all over him.
So, it looks like the Yankees will get Russell Martin. I was never big on him, but it is a good move for the Yankees. A right handed bat, a good player to play for Montero at times, good move for them. If the Red Sox got him I would have been happy, but I am comfortable with Saltalamacchia and Varitek (Or Geovanny Soto).
So, for the most part, the Red Sox have had a great offseason. But that can change quick. But for now, things look pretty good.
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I'm not sure why everyone assumes this makes it more likely that the Yankees will get Martin
he’s not a huge name FA or anything, they’ve already placed a value on him, weighing his ceiling and the risks of playing him. I doubt that offer increases because they were unable to sign Lee. If anything, I would think the opposite, I assume both teams have offered him similar deals and if I were him, having a chance to catch both Lee and Sabathia would make NY much more tempting.
Both rotations as of now
Boston:
1. Jon Lester 3.29 xFIP (in 2010)
2. Clay Buchholz 4.20 xFIP
3. Josh Beckett 4.01 xFIP
4. John Lackey 4.32 xFIP
5. Dice-K 4.73
New York:
1. CC Sabathia 3.78 xFIP
2. Phil Hughes 4.33 xFIP
3. AJ Burnett 4.66 xFIP
4. Ivan Nova 4.49 xFIP
5. Sergio Mitre 4.34 xFIP
Basically their 2nd best pitcher is only better than our worst pitcher Dice-K. When looking at this numbers its unreal how much better Lester is than Sabathia in the 2 last years and Yankee Fans out there still argue CC is better.
by German Red Sox Fan on Dec 14, 2010 10:34 AM EST reply actions
well the one thing CC has going for him is the consistent 230-250 innings a year
while Lester’s topped at 210, so CC takes more pressure off the rest of the rotation/bullpen.
But yeah, Lester’s much better per inning.
yeah good point
he always has been a workhorse. No medical expert here but that might come back and bite him? Similar like it hurt Russel Martin.
After seeing the numbers i was just kinda suprised how much better Lester is than anyone else on the 2 teams. I expected him to be the best but not by that big a margin.
by German Red Sox Fan on Dec 14, 2010 10:47 AM EST up reply actions
yeah I dunno, it could, but doesn't seem to be
he’s pretty much built like a tank, and only seems to get better as the year goes on, so I don’t think he’s having any real fatigue or injury issues. That may change as he gets older if he keeps pitching as much, but he doesn’t look to me like he’s getting overused so much as he is just ready to pitch a ton.
c.c could easily break down any year now
he has led mlb in innings pitched over last 4 to 5 years milwaukee abused him cause he wasnt coming back there. he has some miles on those tires. he is over 300 lbs and getting close to his mid thirties. not saying its going to happen but it could and it wouldnt shock me. plus i think if c.c has another great season he will opt out of his contract next year cause next years starter market isnt that good he would have the yanks over a barrel.
by brady12mvp3 on Dec 14, 2010 11:02 AM EST up reply actions
you are writing a paradox...
If CC is breaking down in 2011, for whatever reason, CC opting out of his contract would not be a wise move, given the MFY could see the handwriting on the wall and look elsewhere.
There is this theme that the MFY will immediately wave the white flag and only giving CC more money per annum will unclenched their sphincter. The MFY Front Office may be many things, but they are businessmen. They aren’t going to agree with an opt out, and they know that other teams can’t match CC’s current salary. (who else can afford $25 million for a starting pitcher?)
The MFY are relying on Sabathia way too much, however how Sabathia’s pitches, especially his bread and butter pitch, his slider, he is not wearing out his arm at a considerable rate.
I can only see CC opting out of his contract if he wants to leave New York, or if he has a year comparable Johan Santana’s 2004 season and wins the World Series for the MFYs.
Russell Martin's injury had nothing to do with being overworked
What Martin had was pretty much a blunt force trauma injury. It is still sketchy if he had a torn labrum (as the Dodgers have suggested) or a hairline fracture of his femoral shaft as his agent has suggested. Most major injuries in the population below 65 in the hip area come from blunt force trauma, like car accidents.
If Sabathia was throwing high heat all the time as Strasburg, or even Chamberlain did before they were injured, yes he is more likely going down a path of major injury. However how he pitches, with his variations, and his slider as his strike out pitch, he should be alright for a couple more years before age starts becoming a major factor. Sabathia relies on alot of off speed pitches, which is why he can pitch so many innings, nor is he throwing stuff like Santana that is already screwing up his shoulder.
he wasn't referring to the hip injury
he was referring to the collapse of power he suffered, which a lot of people have hypothesized is because he was way overworked as catcher.
Ill just ask the obvious question
When has the Philly ever been a tough team for the Red Sox?
I think the Sox even with Cliff Lee, Haladay and Hamels are something like 25 – 6 against the Phillies.
This could not have worked out better for the Red Sox.
I can't agree with this statement:
This offseason so far really has been perfect for the Red Sox.
Not to sound like a broken record, and not to be overly negative about what has been a very exciting offseason for the Red Sox, but the fact remains that our two main areas of concern, bullpen and catcher, have not been addressed.
Martin, though by no means a lock as a saviour nor a superstar FA, was our best available bet to remedy a frightening catcher situation, regardless of this alleged upside to Salty (which has only been seen in AA to the best of my knowledge). Couple that with Downs and Putz off the market for relievers and lots of folks looking, I won’t say that this has been “perfect”.
Exciting, yes. Perfect, no.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
I dunno, in the end I don't see the catcher as that huge a deal
The offense should be SO GOOD that I’m kind of curious to see someone who they think may have some potential. It’s not like he will be destroying the offense, and I like the idea of big potential in a young guy who is eager to learn and improve more than I like the idea of a pretty good defensive catcher who we know always has and always will suck on offense.
I woulda liked Martin, but with the additions of Gonzalez and Crawford to the lineup, I’m not gonna freak out if we start the year with Salty as the main catcher.
Bullpen, I agree 100%. I’m disappointed we didn’t get Downs for that deal. There are still enough relievers out there that I’m not gonna give up, but Theo needs to accept that he’s probably gonna have to pay more for relief help than he wants to.
I just don't like the idea
of having one or two outs every time you flip the order. It takes opportunity out of our big guns’ hands.
Anyway. It is what it is. This is what we have, and like I said, it doesn’t mean that this hasn’t been a very exciting offseason leading into what promises to be a very exciting season.
But it is far from perfect…especially if we don’t get some serviceable arms in that @#$%ing bullpen!
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
no team is perfect
building a bullpen is the hardest thing to do in baseball. the red sox offense defens and starters can cover a shaky bullpen if healthy. plus if it becomes to shaky it would be easier to go aquire help at the deadline then overpay in a sellers market today.
by brady12mvp3 on Dec 14, 2010 12:04 PM EST up reply actions
yeah I agree, less outs is good
i loved the idea of Martin for his OBP. Hopefully Salty will have a bit of an uptick there.
At least he’s not Cash-like. Or if he turns out to be Cash-like, I have faith that he will not be long for the team.
+1
people here just see Crawford and Gonzalez and think we are the team to beat. We still have horrible tandem at catcher and our Bullpen still sucks. How many good relievers are really left? Benoit gone, Putz gone, Downs gone! Will Guerrier be our big Bullpen addition? Woopdieedoo. He is not really good. With the Yankees now concentrating their resources on Bullpen Downs will likely look like a big bargain for the Angels.
by German Red Sox Fan on Dec 14, 2010 11:36 AM EST up reply actions
How can you say
Gurrier is not good?
In Lax We Trust- Offical Pro Lacrosse Blog of SBN
by Marisa Ingemi on Dec 14, 2010 11:48 AM EST up reply actions
his peripherals are nothing special
The 2 last seasons he had a BABIP of .222 and .236 while .290-300 is around the norm. His xFIP sits 4.31 and 4.53. He is much worse than Jenks, Benoit or Putz even if his ERA or his holds dont tell you. I much rather have Jenks, who had bad luck: .368 BABIP and 2.62 xFIP. Its just not smart to sign the guy who has been extremly lucky over his career and expect this luck to continue, unless Guerrier is a human phenomenon and can somehow control his BABIP like no other human being can.
by German Red Sox Fan on Dec 14, 2010 12:31 PM EST up reply actions
Overreact much?
There still some very good relievers out there to shore up the pen. We were never in the market for a closer (although I agree that Paps is meh) therefore we weren’t going to give out closer money to 7th inning or lefty specialist guys. Downs is great, Putz is good but they are both making $5 million next year and that is way to much for a 7th inning guy.
Now if we go out and sign someone like Guerrier for $4 million than passing on Downs at $5 million was a bad move. But signing a few guys like Guerrier, Crain, Feliciano, etc. to go along with Dubront, hopefully Taylor Buchholz, Sean Hill and potential Michael Bowden and we got ourselves a pretty good bullpen. If those signings fail then we make a big splash during the season to get the pen we need.
Oh and we are the best team in the AL East and likely in the AL, even with our “holes at catcher and in the pen.” Have you seen the Yankees holes in the rotation? What about in their pen after Rivera? What about there defense?
Has nothing to do with overreacting
coming from you its rather funny. Maybe you wanna read up the Agon deal not happening comments again.
On the topic though.
Guerrier is not good as posted above and somebody will overpay when looking at the shiny, likely unsustainable ERA.
Feliciano is good but not Downs good, He walks to many people.
Crain not that good either.
I’d still do the Downs deal any day of the week. 15M seems not an overpay given that Gregg just got 12M. Thats just market reality. With the Yanks in the mix now it will be hard to get someone good for much less than 5M per year.
I would go after Jenks and Feliciano!
by German Red Sox Fan on Dec 14, 2010 5:37 PM EST up reply actions
So, I am confused
Guerrier is not good, niether is Crain. But you would sign a Feliciano who is absolutely terrible in the NL East and far weaker division than the AL East.
Guerrier, Crain and Fuentes (OMG this makes me sick even adding him) play for a team that won the AL Central against talented teams, and arms who have pitched against the AL East. But these guys are all overrated? Or asking for too much?
Feliciano is not terrible.
Guerrier and Crain’s peripherals don’t match up with the ERA isn’t a great stat, especially for relievers. Don’t get me wrong, I’d take those guys, but there not amazing relievers.
embrace the martian
Twitter: @BoldandBrash
by BoldandBrash on Dec 14, 2010 8:35 PM EST up reply actions
just the 2010 numbers if you want more just check out fangraphs
Feliciano: 3.86 xFIP, Guerrier 4.53, Crain 4.10
I dont see how Feliciano is terrible. Even his ERA the last two years has been 3.30 and 3.03.
so next year it will be 0.33<\code>
by German Red Sox Fan on Dec 14, 2010 8:41 PM EST up reply actions
Oh is that all we do?
Make a big splash at the deadline to get the ’pen we need?
How? Why didn’t we do it last year?
Because Theo doesn’t like to cough up prospects for a rental ‘pen. These are valuable ball players, not toilet paper. You just can’t grab more at the store when you’re running low.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
"Why didn’t we do it last year?"
Because enough core players had the injury bug that trading talent for bullpen help would’ve been the equivalent of rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic.
Manny ain't the only bad man.
by tommy.otm on Dec 14, 2010 9:50 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
still would much prefer having a good pen the whole year
to having a good pen the last 2 months of the year.
I agree.
Though it’s easier said than done. Raise your hand if you thought that RamRam and Javy Lopez would’ve been two of the most effective relievers in baseball down the stretch last year.
Manny ain't the only bad man.
well I won't say I expected it
but I will say neither surprises me. Lopez has been good most of his career at what he does, he just had an absolutely awful stretch that ended his time on the Sox. Ramirez is just completely erratic- brilliant for a bit and then atrocious for a while. He more than made up for his brilliance in the postseason, in my opinion.
Somewhat true
But we weren’t conceding the season at the trade deadline. Who was out there to get? I think back to the chatter last year, and I don’t remember hearing a whole pile. And certainly don’t remember hearing any strong talk about not bothering because of the injuries.
Fact is, you can’t just magically find these pieces during the season. Oh, sure, there’s a chance someone might come available, but you sure as hell can’t bank on it, like some of the talk I’m hearing around here lately.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
I think our inaction was a concession.
While other contenders grabbed Lee, Oswalt, Haren, Edwin Jackson, Westbrook, Benjie Molina, Tejada, Berkman, Wood, Dotel, Farnsworth, Ankiel, Ludwick, etc., we traded for Salty and traded away a couple pieces of our bullpen.
As for magically trading for relievers, since 2003, off the top of my head, we gotten the following guys at or near the trade deadline: Scott Williamson, Brandon Lyon, Gagne (I know, I know, hindsight….), Matt Gonzalez, Scott Sauerbeck, Mike Myers, Chad Bradford, Mike Stanton and Javier Lopez.
I’m not saying that I’m comfortable with our bullpen as is. I’m not. But I’m comfortable with the process and confident that Theo isn’t planning on starting the season with Paps, Bard and a bunch of dead weight. However I recognize that we’re not going to start the year with 6 former or future closers in the pen. The best bullpens always have guys that come out of nowhere – think the 2008 Rays, where Wheeler, Balfour and Howell were barely replacement level in 2007 and suddenly were throwing rocks. And even if some guys don’t pan out, we can and will add valuable pieces mid-year – we do it every year that we’re in contention.
Manny ain't the only bad man.
And we can all also hope that Curt Young counts as a valuable bullpen addition
it’s hard to say exactly what effect he’s had, but for whatever it’s worth, the A’s bullpen has been 5th in the majors in FIP since he took over as pitching coach. Hopefully a good amount of that is due to his coaching.
But we still need to upgrade the bullpen. Before the season. No, I don’t expect 6 closer types, but I want at least one other guy who can act as setup guy and one other guy who’s generally pretty dependable, and I want at least one of them to be a lefty.
Disagree (kinda) about catcher
Do agree that we need to sign a reliever or two before Cashman sobers up from a long night of drinking.
by South Coast Ghost on Dec 14, 2010 1:13 PM EST up reply actions
OK
I say perfect UP TO THIS POINT. So far, nothing could have gone better. Downs was looking for too much and I don’t want Putz.
by Marisa Ingemi on Dec 14, 2010 3:09 PM EST up reply actions
I'd have given Downs 3/15 in a heartbeat
Yeah, he’s 34, but he has what, less than 600 career innings? That’s 3 seasons as a starter. The wear isn’t there and he was a proven AL East commodity. I’d have done 3/18 maybe.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
Also, it disagrees with the point
that the off-season has been “perfect” thus far.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
I think it was worth it for them to not go after Harang or Arroyo.
those guys serve up meatballs like crazy. Bringing that to NYS or the launching pad in Toronto is asking for it. Our lineup would absolutely demolish them.
embrace the martian
Twitter: @BoldandBrash
I know,
hence the past tense used in my comment.
embrace the martian
Twitter: @BoldandBrash
by BoldandBrash on Dec 14, 2010 8:35 PM EST up reply actions
I'd love Rhodes if he wasn't 100 years old.
embrace the martian
Twitter: @BoldandBrash
by BoldandBrash on Dec 14, 2010 8:36 PM EST up reply actions
I actually do like the idea of Rhodes
But only he’ll sign a one year contract, and I kind of get the impression that if he’s going to take a one year deal, he’s going to stay in Cincinnati.
The Yankees A. Wouldn’t have wanted Arroyo, B. Wouldn’t have been able to get Arroyo. They likely wouldn’t have wanted to get Harang either. The only option they ever really thought about other than Lee is a trade, which they can still do. The Red Sox have definitely had a better offseason, but it is no where near from over.
Writer for Pinstripe Alley, MLB Daily Dish
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