Should the Red Sox Pursue Cliff Lee? Why and Why Not
by Marisa Ingemi on Nov 9, 2010 10:18 AM EST
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PrintA lot of people are under the assumption that the New York Yankees will sign Cliff Lee. While it is certainly a possibility, I am not about to concede it. There are four major front runners in this I have heard; New York, Texas, Philadelphia, and Boston. I have stated before I believe Texas is the favorite right now. My reason being Nolan Ryan is completely committed to winning, and I think he will do whatever it takes to re-sign him. But as I said before about New York, that is not exactly set in stone. So, do the Red Sox really have a shot at him? And if so, will they pursue him?
The Candidates
Yankees-
When people see a big free agent name, they assume the Yankees will sign him because they have billions to spend. That is not always the exact truth. True, they went out on the shopping spree two seasons ago, but that was a more desperate team. The Yankees of 2010 were World Series contenders, and if they do not do another thing they still are.
However I can see the reasoning's they would sign him. Andy Pettitte might retire, and then the Yankees lose most pitching depth. They have CC Sabathia, and after that who else? Phil Hughes has good stuff, but he seems to wear down after about the fourth inning. AJ Burnett can have good seasons, but I would not want to have to rely on him. So, are the Yankees contenders for Lee?
Contenders
Texas stole Lee from the Yankees, so that actually may be another reason the Yankees want him. Seattle ended up trading Lee to Texas for Justin Smoak and two lower level prospects. The Yankees were willing to trade Jesus Montero, Manny Banuelos, and Gary Sanchez. I did not understand why Seattle did not take that deal at the time and I still do not know.
Without Lee, the Rangers do not go to the World Series. They already had a very good team, but Lee pushed them over that edge with the presence of an ace. And Nolan Ryan has to love a guy like Lee. He wants his pitchers going deep into games, and that is what he got in Lee. That is one reason I think Texas will fight to keep the left handed ace.
Contenders
At fist i did not completely understand this rumor, as they already have Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt and Cole Hamels. Why would they need Lee?
But the Phillies are an older team, with Polonco, Ibanez, Ruiz, and Utley has been hurt. Rollins has been hurt. So then I realized they might want to go for it all next season. And what better than sign the top guy on the free agent market? The Phillies should kick the tires on this one- But I still do not know how committed they are to signing him.
Pretenders
Red Sox-
We all thought the Red Sox had three aces this year. Turns out they had two, and one of them was not who we expected. I have been surprised every time I hear Lee is on the Red Sox radar. I would love to have him here, trust me, but I do not see Theo signing another pitcher long term, not after the Lackey and Beckett deals.
The Red Sox main focus this offseason will be Victor Martinez and Jayson Werth. Is Lee a possibility? Yes, with a market like Boston, every free agent is a possibility. But are they really serious about giving all they have to sign him? I doubt it.
Pretenders
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I agree that Lee is highly unlikely
due to the cost already sunk in long term starting pitching. I see Theo jumping in to drive up cost for NYY/Texas, but other than that, I doubt it.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
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Here
Why: Because he’s arguably the best left-hander in baseball (with apologies to Jon Lester)
Why Not:
(a) he’ll cost a ton taking money away from areas of need
(b) The Sox already have a full starting rotation
© The Sox already have a ton of money built into said starting rotation
Why Nots overrule the Why
Cliff Lee is 32, Lester is 26.
Give Lester six years, and he may eclipse Lee.
Fenway: "An alternate and better universe, disguised as a ballpark." --Thomas Boswell
No
He will be 33, had some back issues, and will cost $$$$. As frustrating as the Sox starters were last year, they were not a weakness. Overall the Sox starters outperformed both the Rays and Yankee starters by FIP and tRA, despite the (correct) perception of underachieving. The time to get Lee was when the Tribe was shopping him (as I argued at the time) because he was younger and a deal could have been worked out then. Now were are stuck with Beckett and Lackey long term and that is the way it is. If we sign Lee, we will not be able to focus on much more palpable areas of need (bullpen, 3b, C and possible OF). Let the Rangers and Yankees play chicken to see who will pay Lee till he is 38.
I agree
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by Marisa Ingemi on Nov 9, 2010 12:02 PM EST up reply actions
Small quibble.
Yanks were never, ever, considering trading Montero, Banuelos, and Sanchez for Lee. They were haggling over some combination of Montero, Warren, Nunez and Adams. The first three are arguably our Top 3 prospects, I think the only person they;d consider moving them for would be Felix.
Strikeouts are boring- Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.
I think I got confused with Nunez and Sanchez
oops
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by Marisa Ingemi on Nov 9, 2010 12:02 PM EST up reply actions
Word. No big deal, I don’t think Banuelos was in the negotiations either. It was Adam Warren.
Strikeouts are boring- Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.
by CasanovaWong on Nov 9, 2010 12:26 PM EST up reply actions
I thought I heard Banuelos
But you could be right.
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by Marisa Ingemi on Nov 9, 2010 12:26 PM EST up reply actions
I can't for the life of me understand
a)How the Yankees were crazy enough to offer Montero in the first place when they could keep him (regardless of his long term ability to catch) and just buy Lee in the off season.
b)How Jack Z coult take the Smoak offer instead.
I makes me even wonder if this deal was ever offered. First-the Yankees had to feel that even without Lee, they were as good as any other WS contender. Second, the probability added for a few months of Lee for a WS run is not high enough to give away a special talent like Montero for just a few months. Montero is so far ahead offensively of where Smoak was at 20 that I also don’t get what the Ms were doing-it is not like Smoak plays a very important position. And while a blue chip prospect, but even at 23 in a massively inflated AAA league he can barely match Montero at 20 in a pitcher’s league. Montero is almost one of those Miggy Cabrerra offensive talents…
I think the Mariners fell in love with themselves a bit when they took Smoak instead.
Their “explanation” was that Smoak being a switch hitter would allow him to take advantage of the shorter RF fence in Safeco as opposed to the deep LF and LCF. Personally I think the difference is negligible considering Montero has displayed impressive opposite field power for a young kid. Secondly I can see them apparently wanting to “weaken” a division rival. Still, I would have taken the better hitter, no matter what. Thirdly, from a financial point of view, I think they consider Smoak a “plug and play” meaning he won’t need as long to develop and will be producing at a higher level than Montero earlier in his career. They’re not broke so I don’t think the money should really play a part in the decision but who really knows. ALl I know is I most definitely would have taken Montero over Smoak.
I also guess the Yanks were willing to do it because they were thinking Lee = guaranteed ring this year and at that point in the year there was a chance he could actually just end up being a huge bust. ALl I know for sure is I’m sure as hell happy He’s still a Yankee.
Strikeouts are boring- Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.
I generally feel that most FA that aren't ours aren't worth it this year
But gun to my head, we had to go out and get one, I’d get Lee.
I think our outfield is and will be fine. You can always improve a rotation and come playoff time when you have to decide whether to bench Lackey, Beckett or Buchholz, well you feel pretty damn good about things.
And besides, it would mean the send off of Dice-K, just think of all the whining and complaining we wouldn’t have to read on the game threads if Dice-K is gone? That alone might be worth it.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
I'll say Not
He’ll cost of a ton of years and money, the Sox rotation is locked up for at least 2 years and they can spend the money elsewhere (Crawford, Gonzo, bullpen, etc.). I think the Rangers will be in it to the end but I think he’s heading to NY. Whenever it’s been about money (which appears to be the case with CLee), I can’t recall the last time the Yankees lost out on a player they coveted.
I don't see the Phillies as contenders
They are probably going to trim payroll a bit.
I don’t see the Sox are real into a bidding war for Lee either. I don’t know his stats at Fenway off hand, but he isn’t going to be the 2008 Cliff Lee that the Sox will pay for. Yeah, he will still have few BB, but one should look at Lee with eyes open, before giving him a long contract.
I think right now for the Sox, his selling point is his post season record and his record against the Yankees in the post season at Yankee Stadium.
I just see the sweepstakes between the MFYs and the Rangers with the Yankees winning the sweepstakes, and the winning point will be length and a lockdown no trade clause.
Lee could also add to his income with more endorsements in the NY/NJ market.
However, it will be interesting where Lee goes, the price and duration of the contract.
I've brought up my two cents
And personally, as much as I would love to see the Red Sox get him, I don’t see it happening from a practical standpoint, unless something magical happens via a trade with one of the pitchers in the team’s rotation.
So it’s either the Yankees or Rangers. Money talks but something tells me Cliff Lee will look at more than just the money.
Raj Ghetia
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To go along with what CasanovaWong said, there are a few errors in here. The Yankees were certainly not offering three of their top 10 prospects for Lee in Montero, Sanchez, and Banuelos. They only offered Montero, packaged with a pitcher such as Warren, and Eduardo Nunez, hence the deal not working out.
Phil Hughes has good stuff, but he seems to wear down after about the fourth inning
Where do you get that from? His worst stats are in the 1st 15 pitches and pitches 91-105. Those aren’t the 4th innings. Maybe you have a stat to back it up, or maybe I’m insane, but I don’t remember this.
Where’s the Nationals? The Nationals are much bigger contenders than the Phillies, believe it or not. The Nationals will make at least a pitch and probably an offer for Lee, they want a big name.
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Just information I have read
Alos, on Hughes that is just an opinion. He always appears tired to me after the fourth.
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by Marisa Ingemi on Nov 10, 2010 12:11 AM EST up reply actions
I don’t see quality of a pitcher statistically as being an opinion. Sure, he may be tired, but it doesn’t matter if it doesn’t affect his stats.
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The Phillies
basically just threw a Ring away by trading him before the season, never got that stupid trade and the prospects weren’t even anything special if I’m not mistaken. Can’t see Lee returning now.
by German Red Sox Fan on Nov 10, 2010 4:26 AM EST reply actions
Oswalt
was 8-1 in his time with the Phillies and was not the reason why they got beat by the Giants. How did they throw away a ring away with a starting rotation of Haladay, Oswalt and Hamels?
Lincecum, Cain + Bumgarner are the real deal and are better than Lee, Haladay and Oswalt.
I’m not trying to pick on you German, but Oswalt was impressive in Philly and I think with Lee, Phillies still lose to the Giants bc the Giants staff is just that good.
Not to mention they lit Lee up like a Christmas tree in Game 1 of the WS.
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by TheLoneDavid on Nov 16, 2010 1:36 PM EST up reply actions
I think Lee was not entirely at fault for Game 1..
I think Vlad Guerrero was a big mistake for the Rangers in Game 1 in RF, Josh Hamilton had was positioning himself more in Right Center to help cover for Vlad, and many of those doubles were in the left center gap.
Lee is the boss on the mound, but I think Ron Washington really blew it by putting Guerrero in as Right Fielder, and it effected the Ranger’s outfield’s defense.
I am also in the thinking once a team gets to the playoffs, anything can happened. Given the two teams I thought would get slaughtered in the Playoffs, ended up in the World Series.
I'd take
Halladay, Lee and Oswalt over Lincecum, Cain and Bumgarner now, it might be different in a couple of years but as of now the Giants pitcher are not better ihmo.
The point i was trying to make was: trading Cliff Lee to the Mariners was simply horrible, because the haul was not that good and the timing is just weird in a season were you going for the Ring to trade maybe the best lefty in all of baseball right now. Not a prospect expert but Smoak alone might be better then what the Phillies got.
by German Red Sox Fan on Nov 19, 2010 6:20 AM EST up reply actions
Of course
You could get Lee for the same as Beltre and Werth combined. The Red Sox have reasonable alternatives in the outfield and third. Lee is a quantum improvement in the rotation: he would have more of an impact than Beltre and Werth.
And it would keep him from New York.
Definitely
2 top position players who will play about 260-280 combined games per year or 1 top pitcher who will start 33 games at most? Hmmm… Seems pretty simple to me.
Let's remember that Lee is only one guy that pitches every 5th day.
He’s very good, but the team that had him didn’t even win the WS. I would take Beltre and Werth over Lee.
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by BoldandBrash on Nov 10, 2010 7:24 PM EST up reply actions
It is a team sport..
Lee pitched really well in Game 5 of the World Series, except for that high fastball to Renteria. Lincecum was pretty much unhittable with his Johan Santana like change up that one saw many Texas Batter swinging wildly for on a couple strike 3 counts.
I think one reason why Lee had problems in Game 1, was that Jeff Hamilton was leaning more to the right field to help cover for Vlad, because it seems all the doubles were in the left field power alleys.
Lee is good, he is human, he can have bad days and AJ Burnett’s pitch placements at times, as any pitcher. but he reminds me of Okajima of 2007 with his pinpoint accuracy, but with the duration of Halladay or Sabathia. He pitched some incredible games in the 2010 playoffs. His game against the Yankees was incredible. He shut down one of the most feared offensives in baseball. He also pitch some great games against the Rays, who had a pretty good lineup sans Peña.
The GIants pitching during the World Series was incredible. in some ways I think Cain should had gotten the World Series MVP, or Baumgartner.
CJ Wilson also pitched a very good game, except for that one home run to Renteria. The Rangers’ bullpen was just awful.
The Giants have alot of components to repeat, three good pitchers, a semi decent bullpen, a smart manager. If they get some hitting, it won’t be pretty for other teams.
So here is why I think this
1. If we don’t get Werth, we have an outfield of Cameron, Ellsbury, Drew and Kalish. Cameron’s average war 2006 – 2009 is around 3.1 Werth’s war is about 4.2 over the same time frame. So it is about a 1, maybe a 1.5 war difference.
2. If we don’t get beltre, the options are to let Lowrie play third or bring in another first baseman. Beltre’s war was 6.1, but that was a good 3 points higher than any year since 2004. Unless you think Beltre is going to duplicate that again,then the difference is between Lowrie and Beltre. Lowrie slugged .526, Beltre .553. You can certainly question the sample size with Lowrie, but you can also question whether Beltre gets close to those numbers over the time of the contract.
Lee’s war is around 6 on average. Dike-K, who I assume he would replace, had a war over the last two years of about a 1.3. Moreover,signing Lee keeps him away from the Yankees.
lee is overrated
anything over 5/80m is crazy.
forget about cc’s money
there are 10 mlb pitchers i would rather have at $80/5 or more than leemon (sic).
the sox have 2 of them.
I don't think Lee is overrated.
I just don’t think he can be Sandy Koufax for every Pitching Start. However, Lee’s WHIP and BB rate are impressive enough.
I just find it ironic that he was injured in 2007, if he was healthy or in his 2008 form, I don’t think the Sox had a chance in the 2007 ALCS. The Sox were lucky.
It also sad that Cleveland had a couple components to be a dominating team from 2007 onward, but they didn’t have the money to keep it together.
sadly, that's the fundamental of MLB
Only the big market teams can afford to retain their superstar FAs.
Lee is not over rated
But he is not a nessicity for Boston right now
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by Marisa Ingemi on Nov 10, 2010 11:10 PM EST up reply actions
Which is how I view Werth/Crawford too
We don’t NEED any of the top free agents. Our offense is fine, you can always improve a rotation though, if we have to put the money somewhere, put it on Ortiz and a pitching upgrade (and that dude that proposed to a BUNCH of homeruns this year).
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
Bullpen is needs an overhaul, and should be the top priority..
We have five starting pitchers on payroll, if we have 3-4 good pitchers, that is enough for the playoffs. However, I am getting a sense that Daisuke will be pitching for another team in 2011.
Why the Red Sox are "in"
The Red Sox are in on the bidding for Cliff Lee for one reason: to make him more expensive for the Yankees to sign. The more money the Yankees have to spend on Lee, the less they will have to fix the rest of the wholes on their team (even the Yankees have a budget… it’s just higher than most of the rest of baseball’s…). This is simple good business by the Red Sox, but if you think Cliff Lee is walking through that door, you’re delusional!
by irish_celtic_fan on Nov 11, 2010 9:27 AM EST reply actions
Re-enforcing my belief it'll be Texas:
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/11/rangers-pursuing-lee-v-mart-can-spend-big.html
Texas is pursuing both free agents and has approval from ownership to boost payroll above $90MM.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
Boston is pursuing Lee
to force both Texas and MFY to pay more so they cannot pay for other FAs, or make it more difficult to sign other FA, like Carl Crawford.
I bet the Angels get into the Cliff Lee FA bidding as well to help drive the price up for the Yanks and Rangers. Angels and Sox have similar strategies to force Texas and NY to pay more.
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