Red Sox Look To Make Big Splash In Free Agency

With the possibility of YouK at 3B and A-Gon at 1st, I think that move tops everything else on the Red Sox radar. The price will be high, of course, but the impact can’t be understated. I think that the only real hold up is the fact that the market gets smaller then longer the Padres hold out, with Gonzales approaching free agency. I prefer that to signing Adrian Beltre and one of Crawford/Werth.

Beltre – Very good, but not great player who will likely be a bit overpaid by someone.
Crawford – Very good 5-tool player who will be drastically overpaid by someone. I don’t think he’s a 20M or, as he wants, a 20+(!)M/yr guy.
Werth – Smartest OF value available as a 14-15M/yr guy.
Downs – Yes, we need him or someone like him.
V-Mart – Yes at 3 years max, but otherwise would be overpaid due to declining production at C and lessened value as a 1B/DH.

I think we’ll get Werth, Downs, and maybe, Beltre out of those. The big contracts for Beckett and Lackey keep us out of the Lee talks unless we trade Dice-K. Even with that trade the problem would be that a Lee signing will take out at least one of the other signings. We do still have a budget after all.

I’m not sure what Theo’s priority list is and I’m not sure they even have a priotity list. More likely is they will be in all these players and several others over the next few weeks.
For me, I would put V-Mart near the top of the list, although I’m getting the feeling the Sox are giving him the Jason Bay treatment. That one worked out, but many here were commenting the Bay departure would be largely offset by a full season of V-mart in 2010. For my money, I may take the chance that V-Mart can produce for 4 years and pay him the money becasuse of his versatility. Also, this thinking that there is no way he can catch in 3 years has taken on a life of its own. His bat an versatility alone warrant a 4 year deal from some team.

And maybe someone like Pena to play 1B for one season.

Werth and Crawford are very good players. And while they’re better than what the Sox have—Drew, Cameron, Ellsbury, Kalish, etc.—the Sox can still field a decent OF. Beltre is also very good. But the Sox have options at 3B: Lowrie, Youk.

If VMart walks, the Sox have don’t have a legitimate catching option. The pen also stinks and there are in in-house solutions.

In other words, is he going to get better, play at the level he’s reached at present, or decline through the length of his contract?

His 20+M /yr demand only makes sense if you think he’s still going to improve further – i.e. a 25-30HR guy as opposed to a 19HR guy he’s established himself as. He’s a risk to be the #3 or #4 guy he’s signing to be. Still, he’d be great to bat with Youk in those spots. Under no circumstances should anyone bat him 1st or 2nd!

With Werth, you have the second coming of JD Drew – not a #3 or #4 hitter, but a solid #5 or #6 guy. Signing him is safe, but it leaves us still looking for the solid “Papi/Manny” duo for 3 and 4. Youk gets one spot. I’m still scratching my head for the other.

I do believe the Sox upper management will want to make a splash in the offseason. Remember, they are selling a product and the interest in the Sox took a bit of a hit in 2010. The lack of “buzz” around town for the was palpable and the NESN ratings were way down.

Arthur Rhodes just turned 41 and still had a WHIP of 1.02 in 55 IN in ’10 aided by a .244 BABIP. Bill James predicts his BB/9 to jump .61 and his WHIP to increase to 1.21.

If the Sox go for one older less expensive option in the new bullpen, I would prefer it to be Takashi Saito over Rhodes. Saito’s 11.50 K/9, 1.14 WHIP, and .304 BABIP in 2010 do more for me than Rhodes does and Saito was not bad in his one year in the AL East.

Both these old guys are still getting it done though.

Welcome Jared. I believe this is your 1st post as a writer at OTM. Great start.

We just lost another good baseball guy from the Sox minor league staff : Gary DiSarcina to the Angels. Real nice guy from Billlerica, MA.

Link

Beltre, Werth, and Downs.

And possibly either Buck or Olivo at catcher.

And nice work Jared!

Yes Carl Crawford is a better overall player and he is 2 years younger than Werth, still I believe Werth is a better fit for the Sox for various reasons.

1. Contract: I believe the contract for Crawford will be massive, I think it will be in the Holliday range and might possibly end up in the 7/140M range. Everbody who thinks he is not gonna make 100M is nuts. Werth on the other hand could end up with a 4/60 prolly 5/80 on the max side. I much prefer 4 years over 5, but Werth will be significantly cheaper i believe.

2. Crawfords Defense! The Red Sox might be the team who get the least value out of CC, because his defense is such a major part of his value and some of it will be lost in the 81 games in the small LF in Boston. So the 2 player are closer in their value to the Sox than they are for other teams.

3. Werth is RH! Thats huge in my book. With the Yankees prolly ending up with Cliff Lee. Their 2 Aces will be southpaws and thus we need players who crush southpaws. Werth career wOBA vs LHP: .401, Crawford: .307. Huge difference between the 2.