Sox Offseason - Back on Track?
by 0157H7 on Nov 30, 2010 8:00 AM EST
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PrintThe way this offseason is progressing, I expect a lot of Red Sox fans are discouraged. Victor Martinez is gone, and Adrian Beltre appears to be next on the chopping block. Fan-favorite Jacoby Ellsbury might be traded.
Some people are horrified. Not me. The departure of Martinez suggests that the Sox are back on the wagon, back on track. It suggests that the team has a plan beyond throwing money at free agents and doing their best impersonation of the New York Yankees (aside: it's not very good.). Read on for a look at recent Sox history and what we might expect going forward.
If we take a roseate stroll through recent Red Sox history, you can see the workings of an overall plan for transforming the team. Beginning with the seminal offseason leading into 2003, Theo worked to change the organization's M.O. from one depending on aging veterans and free agents, to a more fluid model, depending on a strong farm system supplemented by undervalued acquisitions and choice free agents. At the start, he sought out underrated players like Kevin Millar, David Ortiz and Bill Mueller in 2003, and got immediate value from them.
In 2004, Theo added Curt Schilling to a solid core, producing one of the best offensive teams in recent memory (949 regular season runs). Coming off a WS victory, some were shocked when starters Pedro Martinez and Derek Lowe were allowed to leave in free agency, but that set the stage for a draft with 4 1st-round draft picks, including Clay Buchholz, Jacoby Ellsbury, Jed Lowrie, and Craig Hansen. Along with other farm hands like Youkilis, Paps, Pedroia and Lester, this signified the beginning of a youth wave that has immensely helped the team. The emergence of such players makes it easier to swallow the failures of the replacement free agents like Matt Clement and Edgar Renteria.
2005 and 2006 were rebuilding years - although the team made October in '05, its pitching wasn't enough to get anywhere. The subsequent acquisition of Josh Beckett and Lowell wasn't Theo's decision, but it was made by his lieutenants and with advice from the then-ousted GM. The non-signing of Damon ahead of the 2006 offseason was a vintage Theo move - allow an aging, injury-prone and overrated player to sign elsewhere for too much money, and take the team's draft picks all the way to the bank.
After being decimated by injuries in '06, Theo rocked the free agent market signing a very underrated (and oft-hated) J.D. Drew, posting for Daisuke Matsuzaka and grabbing the best available shortstop, Julio Lugo. These acquisitions, along with Hero-in-the-Dark Hideki Okajima and strong youth performances led directly to another World Series title.
For the offseason following 2007, Theo re-upped Mike Lowell and Jason Varitek, both of whom would decline precipitously in the coming years. In 2008 the team, nearly unchanged from 2007's squad was one game away from another World Series (and likely another title), aided by a timely if controversial trade of Manny Ramirez mid-season. 2009 saw a similar blockbuster trade for VMart.
In the long-term, the Red Sox under Theo have shown a strategy of committing to younger players and the youth movement, valuing draft picks and young talent highly, and being willing to cut overrated players, even team heroes like Pedro or Manny, go. The offseason heading into this year was in some ways a departure from that winning strategy. The team invested a lot of money into aging starters Beckett and Lackey, hired 37-year-old Mike Cameron 34-year-old Scutaro, both for 2 years. [In fairness, Beltre at 1 year has been a smashing success, as was the non-move in letting Jason Bay walk.]
The departure of Victor Martinez, disappointing as it may be for 2011, bodes well for the team long-term. Sometimes short-term pain, like the downgrade to Saltalamacchia (or a mediocre FA like Barajas) at C, is necessary for long-term success; I'm looking forward to seeing who VMart's draft pick produces. And while the Sox haven't had great luck with free agent acquisitions (Lugo, Renteria), they have been largely on the money in letting free agents go - witness everyone from Pedro to Damon to Jason Bay. The aging veterans they have extended, from Lowell to Tek to Beckett, have often disappointed. As much as I love VMart, if the team doesn't want him at 4 years, $50 million, then neither do I.
Beltre is almost certainly next out the door. His offensive explosion in 2010 is unsustainable and will price him out of Boston, while setting the buyer up for massive disappointment when his stats return to earth. While Beltre's defense is admittedly spectacular, the downgrade from him to Youkilis at third will be made up for by 1) the fact that Youk is cheaper, 2) the draft pick Beltre produces, and 3) Youk's superior offense. Theo may use this opportunity to squeeze Adrian Gonzalez into the lineup.
How the outfield shakes out is anyone's guess. I can see Jayson Werth being acquired if the price is right, as he is a better J.D. Drew, but given the organizational depth, Theo may not want to indulge in signing him. Crawford seems both overrated and likely to be overpaid, and I will take back every nice thing said here (and then some) if he is signed.
However it plays out, I have a better feeling about this offseason than the last. The Sox seem to be on-track with their longitudinal plan, poised to profit from a purportedly deep draft class in 2011 and to take advantage of the trade and free agent markets.
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Um, I'm sorry
Did you just say that the acquisition of Julio Lugo is one of the factors that lead directly to a World Series title??
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
It did happen before the World Series
If we view time as linear, and each event as a point on the line segment, then the acquisition of Julio Lugo led directly to the 2007 World Series title.
LOGIC!
Moving on
You say that while we will likely miss VMart for 2011, his departure bodes well for 2012 and onwards. Can somone please tell me what bright lights there are in the future at the catcher position? I haven’t heard a single name yet that’s on the horizon.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
Seriously?
Yes, we don’t have the next Joe Mauer in the system. But we have some guys that have lots of potential.
Ryan Lavernaway- needs to work defensively (but is much younger than V-Mart, who won’t get any better defensively) and plenty of power. Sox Prospect # 15.
Luis Exposito (23) also shows some good promise.
Aldalberto Ibarra, the guy from Cuba may be very good. The shoulder injury set him back this year.
No slam dunks, but who ever thought Youk would be more than a good OBP guy at the plate. You never can tell, but there are guys rising in the system.
simul justus et peccator
Okay, I've heard Lavarnaway
and I forgot about the young Cuban lad.
But, I mean, how far away are these guys? Did a quick search on Lavarnaway…said that with hard work he could be an average catcher.
MAYBE.
I dunno. I guess it’s all a crap shoot, isn’t it? But I just don’t like it. I suppose my issue is that in all our discussions of our catcher situation, and they have been extensive, I’ve not once seen the remark, “We just need to hold the line for a year, and then XXXX will be ready.”
In fact, haven’t I heard more Lavarnaway discussions trending towards him DH-ing???
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
Lavarnway has come a HUGE way in the last year
I think they’re feeling much more optimistic about him being able to catch (will never be a great defender, but if he can get to average, that’s actually very good; I assume where you read that was SoxProspects, and I believe that is from before the 2010 season started) and it seems like he’s quickly leapfrogging everyone in the system. If he keeps up his progression at the rate it’s been going, he could be up by the end of next year. Most promising to me is that he actually improved his numbers a bit jumping from A to AA, which is usually the hardest transition to make for a batter (and catchers usually make slow transitions since they need to learn to catch new people). I believe he led the organization in home runs in 2009 (with 21) and hit 22 of them this year. And he’s only just turned 23 in August, so that power should be increasing pretty quickly.
Hell, if his defense isn’t up to being an everyday catcher (but he’s only been catching since 2007 and apparently made very big defensive strides last year) he’d be a damn impressive DH/backup catcher.
I’m pretty excited for him if you couldn’t tell.
Imagine in 3-4 years
Having both Exposito and Lavarnway in their primes.
If I was your math homework I'd be really hard and you'd be doing me on your desk.
I'm a 7 WAR player in bed.
by TheLoneDavid on Nov 30, 2010 2:01 PM EST up reply actions
Yup, I got that from SoxProspects
If Lavarnway is a viable option in a couple years, then maybe I can see letting VMart walk making a bit of sense. Like I said, though, it doesn’t fill me full of hope not having his name thrown around with more regularity, like a Kalish or something.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
I really have my doubts on Lavarnway.
I only watched a couple of his AFL games, and he looked like a sieve. Again, I only watch him a little bit, but IMO, he’s labeled as DH…right now.
embrace the martian
Twitter: @BoldandBrash
by BoldandBrash on Nov 30, 2010 7:05 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
but who ever thought Youk would be more than a good OBP
The most important hitting stat is OBP.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Nov 30, 2010 12:56 PM EST up reply actions
Not really
OPS just adds OBP and SLG equally. However, OBP is more valuable because it measures the rate a hitter makes outs; and contributes more to runs-scored than SLG does. SLG just puts a value on the type of hits a player has (walks don’t count). Also, OBP is based on plate appearances and SLG just on at-bats, which means they are scaled differently. A stat like wOBA is better than OPS because it weights OBP, the more important component of OPS, higher than SLG.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Nov 30, 2010 8:14 PM EST up reply actions
i have a problem with that
i don’t see a walk as valuable – over a season – as a hit.
a walk with 1st open and runner(s) in scoring position, is not moving the runners and may lead to a force out and/or double play.
walks are good but moving runners is better.
all this is based on contributing to scoring runs being the #1 priority of a batter.
Which is why OBP considers hits as well...
I don’t have the studies on hand, but OBP correlates much higher with winning percentages than SLG does.
I would prefer a player who hit with decent power and knew how to take a walk than a player with great power who’s going to KO 150 times a season instead. The former player will be putting himself on base more often and setting up a situation to score, whereas the other player (say Bill Hall) is a two outcome player, a HR or a KO which he does far more often.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
i've read that many times before
“all this is based on contributing to scoring runs being the #1 priority of a batter.”
i thinks i’m cutting hairs. over a course of a season, everything probably balances out
that's ok, but
math tells us that the difference between a single and a walk is very, very small. As Alskor says, the most important thing a batter can do is not make an out.
I’d rather have a guy that hit .400 and never walked over a guy that hit .300 and had an OBP of .400, but that’s unlikely to happen.
Draft picks and a lower payroll - oooooo, gives me goosebumps
First of all, the 2004 and 2007 WS teams were loaded going into the season. Varitek was still a fine all-around catcher. Mueller/Lowell were very good all-around at 3B. Both teams had closers, Foulke/Papplebon at the top of their games. Both teams had Manny/Papi in their prime in the middle of the lineup. And both teams had all that before in November of the pre-season. Compare that to the current 2011 team.
how can you compare that to a current 2011 team
which is maybe half constructed? Of course it looks like crap.
The same way you can claim
the team is back on track.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
fair enough
I’d say they could, from this point, have a fantastic offseason, or could completely bungle everything up. The only thing I know for sure is that Dan Shaughnessy won’t like it.
I reserve final judgement until the season is over
but I am really concerned about our catcher situation. I am praying to my Lord & Saviour that the “we have so much confidence in Salty” thing is just lip service, and our best catching option seems to be hoping we can get Russell Martin in a trade, and then hoping he bounces back to previous production.
Once our 3B/reliever situations start to become a little clearer, then we can start talking about on track/off the rails.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
Until the OFF season is over.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
Well played Sir
"Man that ball got outta here in a hurry, you know anything that travels that far oughta have a damn stewardess on it, don't you think?" - Crash Davis
Draft picks are important
VMart was acquired for three players: Justin Masterson (2nd round, 2006), Nick Hagadone (Sandwich pick in 2007, compensation for losing Alex Gonzalez), and Bryan Price (Sandwich pick in 2008, compensation for losing Eric Gagne).
So, the Sox got more than a year from VMart for Masterson and compensation for two players than played briefly for the Sox: a year of Alex Gonzalez and two months of Eric Gagne. Not bad, huh? A lot of people fail to realize is that draft picks have value.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Nov 30, 2010 1:07 PM EST up reply actions
+1
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Nov 30, 2010 1:08 PM EST up reply actions
I don't agree with some of this
I guess. 2005 was a rebuilding year? I don’t remember thinking that.
About the only thing I can see at this point is perhaps the Sox learned something from the Bay experience last year. In the end, Bay would have taken the offer he initially rejected. In the interim, the Sox signed Cameron. Had they waited, the may have eventually landed Bay for their initial offer.
So maybe waiting means Beltre’s price goes down. Or the trade market becomes a little clearer.
Beyond that I don’t see that the Sox have a plan. Maybe they do, but it isn’t discernable now.
no, your take on the Bay thing is incorrect
first they made him an offer (I think it was 4 years/60 million?), but then not long after rescinded it after they had performed MRIs and thought they found knee damage that would come up. They took their offer down to just two years, and I believe were going to require him to get knee surgery he didn’t want. Cameron wasn’t signed until they were thoroughly convinced that Bay would not agree to the deal they were willing to offer him.
I’m sure the Sox have a plan A, and plan B, and a plan C. Not necessarily in their best interests to broadcast to the world exactly what they’re planning to do.
by wolf9309 on Nov 30, 2010 1:44 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
How the hell would the Sox have eventually landed Bay for their initial offer?
Did you see the deal he got from NYM…?
Here is the full story on JBay: http://www.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/rob-bradford/2010/01/21/what-happened-jason-bay-and-red-sox
I assure you there is a plan – and a well thought out, clever plan, like usual – even if its not immediately clear to you or I.
Meh
To be clear, I am not in the shrill ‘fire the boy wonder’ camp and I do like the overall direction and philosophy of the FO as outlined above … though I will never understand the Arroyo for WMP thing dammit. I have to say, though, I don’t understand capping VMart’s worth at 4 x $10m. Even with the concern of possible decline in the third and fourth year of a contract, I think 4 x $12m is pretty reasonable … you know, for a FA on the open market (the Sox probably could have locked him up for 4 x $10-11m if they had extended him in the preseason / early in the season). While I really like Beltre, I understand and agree with the likely loss given our other options and the flexibility of the 1B/3B situation. VMart is mystifying to me, though, given that we wouldn’t have been overpaying (by much anyway) and the gaping hole he leaves behind. That said, I won’t have my head in the oven even if we go into the 2011 season with only one major acquisition.
Totally agree
While both VMart and Beltre had success with the Red Sox, I believe Beltre is the greater performance risk and more easily replaced. I can only assume the Sox were convinced VMart would be a good catcher in 3-4 years. I believe the 4X $12 is very reasonable also and at the low end of almost all salary projections for Victor’s services.
Also agree.
The frequently expressed concern about ‘over paying’ seems at odds with baseball realities.
Even if we would have been over paying Victor in year 4, the fact is, we would likely be under paying someone else. We are dramatically under paying Dustin Pedroia right now. That’s baseball. You under pay the younger guys that you have under control and eventually you have to over pay them later.
Over paying by a couple of million for a DH who could probably still catch 2+ times a week in year 4, as well as play 1B AND hit somewhere from 3 – 6 in your lineup is NOT a reason to let go the 2nd best hitting catcher in the game today.
We have blown far more money on far less productive players.
So i don’t really get the over-concern about ‘over paying’ V-Mart down the road.
The Sox had a payroll of 170 – 180 M and should not be confused with the Kansas City Royals.
yeah
In my mind, the value of a backup catcher/DH is practically double that of a normal DH because of the roster spot it frees up.
Though I’m gonna say third best hitting catcher. That Posey kid seems pretty legit.
I think more than anything they see a catcher and a DH that they think will be up in the not-at-all-distant future. Otherwise I can’t really understand it. It’s a good chunk of money he got but frankly, less than I thought he would. Only other possible explanation I can see is some unrevealed medical information.
The lower amount, the supposed 3/48 mill deal he turned down and the quickness of the signing all make this seem very strange.
Thank you
Glad someone else here belives the Red Sox should stop acting like the Yankees one day and the Royals the next. Yes, they can afford to take a FA risk and it won’t hamper them.
Of course it could hamper them.
I’m not saying that I hate Martinez, but there was some sort of chance that he couldn’t catch long term. Let’s say that he could only catch 2 more years, and we then have Adrian Gonzalez and Rizzo has established him self as a better hitter (DH) than Martinez. Then what do we do? I’m not saying not to take some risks, but money can’t make us immune or solve all our problems.
embrace the martian
Twitter: @BoldandBrash
I hear you, but The Sox essentially ate most of Lugo's contract not to mention the backend of Lowell's
And, somehow miraculoulsy the Sox survived…and the revenues flowed even in an economy that is in a recession
"Man that ball got outta here in a hurry, you know anything that travels that far oughta have a damn stewardess on it, don't you think?" - Crash Davis
GMs
There are few GMs that can claim that they have never made a mistake (bad trade, bad signing, etc.) You take risks and sometimes the risks do not pan out. That being said if the overall quality of the program is solid then questioning becomes a bit nitpicky. Its fairly hard for me to argue with a strong draft, strong minor league system and a fairly consistent record of making the playoffs – Of course my direct comparison is the Dan Duquette era
+1 - those GMs who make that claim manage a Fantasy League Baseball Team...
"Man that ball got outta here in a hurry, you know anything that travels that far oughta have a damn stewardess on it, don't you think?" - Crash Davis
Not even, man...
Prior, Wood + Random 1B for Pujols at midseason a number of years ago. Quite possibly the stupidest thing I’ve ever done.
Wait 'til next/this year?
"Laser show. So relax."
by nuthinboutnuthin on Dec 1, 2010 7:57 PM EST up reply actions
I highly doubt SD will get rid of Gonzalez.
Unless they are as stupid as I always thought they were.
Why? They lose him after next season
it would be stupid and irresponsible of them NOT to listen to offers on him. If they think they’re genuine competitors for the season, then it could make sense to keep him and just take the draft picks at the end of the season, but I think it’s near impossible that come August 1, he’s still on the Padres.
I don't think it is impossible Gonzalez is on the Padres roster 8/1/11
The Padres have shown a willingness to at least try to win. They were very compettitive last season and they made some moves during the season to bolster the roster. My bet is that the Padres don’t get off to the start like last year and they trade him in July. Remember, Gonzalez is coming off some surgery and the reports indicate he will miss spring training. On the other hand, the NL West is usually wide open and the Padres could be in the race in July with a .500 record.
Remember
They won 90 games last year and still missed the playoffs. It’s not as wide open as you’d think.
If I was your math homework I'd be really hard and you'd be doing me on your desk.
I'm a 7 WAR player in bed.
by TheLoneDavid on Nov 30, 2010 2:00 PM EST up reply actions
I think he'll be there to start the year
I just doubt that they start off near as good as they did last year and that they aren’t in contention at the deadline. Obviously they wouldn’t trade him if they thought he’d win them a world series. The NL West is looking much better than its reputation these days.
i'd be surprised if they don't
the injury and his off season surgery is the only thing holding up his move.
What direction ?!?
I must be missing something. I don’t see any plan at all. If we look only at the facts to date in the offseason, we can only assume the Red Sox are looking to reduce payroll and go with younger prospects/projects instead of playing in the free agent market.
Well, even if that was true (and I don't think it is)
That WOULD be a plan/direction.
by South Coast Ghost on Nov 30, 2010 12:02 PM EST up reply actions
well no
if you take the moves they’ve made and combine them with statements that have come from Theo and Werner saying that they expect payroll to be at least as high as 2010 and that they plan on making some big moves, it looks pretty clear that won’t be happening.
The post talks about a "plan" evident from the actions of the Sox to date
Namely the loss of VMart. My point is that no plan is evident at this point and the premise of the post is flawed to say the least.
Well, sorta
I guess it depends on how long you actually think certain players have in them at a certain position.
I think the plan is to spend money but to get as much value back as possible. They don’t want to be caught up too much in longer contracts to players over a certain age.
by South Coast Ghost on Nov 30, 2010 3:02 PM EST up reply actions
Well, in VMart's case
the team that DID sign him have announced they plan to use him mostly at DH.
That alone kind of vindicates Boston not paying him that kind of money.
Sure there is.
The plan was don’t hand out massive contracts to 32 year old DHs masquerading as Catchers.
Mission accomplished.
So what you're saying
Is if the Red Sox had signed V-Mart they would have a had a plan? I am sorry I would rather them decline paying V-Mart 50mill and use that money to sign Werth or try and resign Beltre.
Maybe not a plan
But at least they would have a catcher and a very good hitter with V-Mart. All we have now is Saltilamacchia. I don’t believe the $50 mil. contract the Tigers gave V-Mart will be looked at as a bad contract any time soon. On the other hand, there is much more risk in forking over twice that much for Werth or three times that much for Crawford. I believe the Sox could afford to pay a DH $12 mil. a year. Why worry about the market average for a DH vs. a catcher? The reason that DH’s don’t get the big bucks is that most AL teams truly cannot afford to pay a player big bucks to be a one trick pony. The Red Sox can afford this luxury. If V-mart is a part-time C/1B and full-time DH in year 3/4, and still hitting, is that so bad?
perhaps they don't view his bat as viable for a DH
I don’t, really. Not for a team with the money that the Sox do.
It's looking more and more like the Sox will have a shot at Martin
From what I’m reading the Dodgers are beginning to look at other free agent catchers and are having a tough time finding middle ground with Martin.
If he does become a free agent, what kind of deal would you give him?
Depends on Martin's health
According to Ken Rosenthal:
[The Dodgers are] in talks with Martin, who is coming off a labral tear in his right hip and a $5.05 million salary. If no agreement is reached by Thursday, the deadline for tendering contracts, Martin almost certainly will hit the open market; the Dodgers will not risk going to arbitration with him.
The problem for the two sides is trying to determine Martin’s health, let alone his value.
Martin, 27, is at least a week away from running, sources say, and perhaps six weeks away from resuming baseball activities. He would be returning to the most physically demanding position on the field. And his offensive performance is in decline – he posted on-base slugging percentages of .680 and .679 the past two seasons, though he did not play after Aug. 3 last season due to his injury.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Nov 30, 2010 4:14 PM EST up reply actions
And this is the guy we want?
Really? He is hurt, offensive numbers going downhill, but at least he’s only 27; is that the argument? Oh wait, he’s not going to cost much money. I forgot about the Red Sox’ austerity program.
he'd probably actually cost more money than any of the free agents left
but he’s excellent defensively, can get on base (which is more than any other available catcher can say) and the general feeling is that with reduced playing time in a new environment, his offensive numbers could rebound- if they don’t, it’s just a one-year committment.
but at least he’s only 27; is that the argument? Oh wait, he’s not going to cost much money.
Neither of these are the argument for him or against anyone else.
Based off of what I can interpret, the FO doesn't want any of the guys on the market
or any of the guys that just went off of the market (Buck, Vic). However, they have to have someone, so they’re just going to go with whoever.
embrace the martian
Twitter: @BoldandBrash
I'm telling you man
Soto
If I was your math homework I'd be really hard and you'd be doing me on your desk.
I'm a 7 WAR player in bed.
I don't think anyone wouldn't like Soto
but other than blind hope, there’s no real reason to believe he’s available.
But, we're the Red Sox
That’s enough for GMs just to give us stuff.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
trade w/Padres why not this one
let’s trade Kalish-Dice-k-Bowden-Doubrant-Anderson to San Diego
for A-Gon & Ryan Ludwick then sign A-Gon long term it’s the only way I would do it
CF Ellsbury, 2B Pedroia, 3B Youklis, 1B A-Gon, DH Ortiz, LF Ludwick, RF Drew,
SS Scutaro/Lowrie, C Salty
And Yes I say give Salty a shot
Dice-K has a no-trade clause
Also, Ryan Ludwick has had one good year.
How about this one? The Sox keep Dice-K, Kalish, Doubront, and Anderson and just sign Gonzalez next year.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Nov 30, 2010 4:40 PM EST up reply actions
How about this one
The Red Sox sign Beltre, and keep Youk at first where he belongs, then use Lars/Rizzo/Lavarnway at DH, or have a rotation to let players rest.
If I was your math homework I'd be really hard and you'd be doing me on your desk.
I'm a 7 WAR player in bed.
by TheLoneDavid on Nov 30, 2010 5:09 PM EST up reply actions
Or, I would add this:
The Red Sox sign Beltre, and keep Youk at first where he belongs, then use Lars/Rizzo/Lavarnway at DH, or have a rotation to let players rest.
After next year let Papi go, sign A-Gon as a FA and then rotate all three (Youk, Adrian and AGon) in the DH position – this would also create another roster spot for a backup IF or bullpen hand…just a thought
"Man that ball got outta here in a hurry, you know anything that travels that far oughta have a damn stewardess on it, don't you think?" - Crash Davis
There would be no rotation
It’s nice to say “rotate” as if all are being used, but AGonz would end up being the DH far, far, far more often than he would actually see the field. Why take Youkilis’s or Beltre’s glove from the field and weaken the team? Beltre played over 150 games this year, Youkilis usually plays about that too in a healthy season, their durability isn’t in question. If we signed both Beltre and got Gonzalez, Gonzalez would end up being the full time DH.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
My first choice has always been to pass on AGon and go with Beltre and Youk and I have stated that many times
I am just saying if the possible FO’s man crush on AGon is a foregone conclusion (as many hope) then that option would be nice due to the fact we could add an arm to the bullpen or another utility IF. Imagine throwing Upton and Lowrie into that lineup – the upside would be huge. But, I still think the Sox should sign Beltre and pass on AGon the need is just not there.
"Man that ball got outta here in a hurry, you know anything that travels that far oughta have a damn stewardess on it, don't you think?" - Crash Davis
A-Gon a DH?
Now we want to pay a DH $20 mil/year? I thought this was the reason the Sox didn’t offer V-Mart a contract. they don’t want to pay DH’s the big bucks.
Adrian Gonzalez is a much better hitter than Victor Martinez
like not even close to the same level. A much, much, much better hitter.
+1
He’s younger too.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Dec 1, 2010 4:12 PM EST up reply actions
Which is why I'm against it.
And think it isn’t as likely as others.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
Youk's biggest beef
has been when he’s constantly shifting positions. He feels more comfortable playing one position and sticking there. When he was flopping back and forth between 1B and 3B, people thought he resented playing third. In actuality, he would have been fine playing third if he had been set there all season. It was the transitioning back and forth which made him uncomfortable.
For this reason, the rotation idea doesn’t fly.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
Ok, that is a point well received and I have thought about this for a day (did you see the smoke???)
Again, I am firmly in the camp of sign Beltre and stick with Youk at 1B and deal with a new DH after Big Papi’s last season (which is probably this year).
How a rotation would work:
Youk and AGon would stay at first (no moving Youk to 3rd so he stays at 1B when he is not DH’ing)
Beltre would stay at 3rd and DH when he needs a rest and the utility IF could play 3rd on the days he does not….
I am not saying this is perfect…but, having all three of those bats in the lineup would be pretty ferocious – but, when you slide Beltre to DH then Youk or A-Gon has a total rest day
So, most likely Youk and A-Gon would rotate the majority of time…which leads back to your point on since Youk is better defensively he would probably see more time at 1B….
Which brings me back to my point of why we should just keep Youk at 1B and resign Beltre…
To which the A-Gon club responds: “Have you seen his spray charts and overlaid those on Fenway?” Yes, but I still think Youk and Beltre is a great combo and the Sox can trade for Upton or offer Werth or Crawford a contract to replace/upgrade V-Mart’s missing bat…
The upside:
Resting the players on the field when they have soreness, etc.
3 big bats in the lineup
Answering the the question of DH past 2011 (assuming Big Papi is not offered a contract)
The downside:
This creates problems similar to the NYY. The Yankees have aging players that cannot field like they used too but they added a 1B to a longterm contract….This could turn out the same way for the Sox –
Why add a position player to a position you already have depth in (1B to include the minor leagues too)?
Why let Beltre go when he is very productive and we have a need at 3B?
Or, assuming your point of A-Gon being the new DH for most of the time-
How much do you pay for a DH?
And on and on this could go….
"Man that ball got outta here in a hurry, you know anything that travels that far oughta have a damn stewardess on it, don't you think?" - Crash Davis
yeah, I'd do that trade in a heartbeat
even if ludwick wasn’t included. We’d even actually save payroll money for 2011 by trading Dice-K and Gonzalez! That’s a good first indication that the asking price is going to be higher than that…
Why do the majority of sox fans think anybody wants Dice?
There are worse pitchers than Dice, but he’s still not any good. Plus, his contract is still sorta hefty. There are FAs that I would personally prefer, and certain AAA promotions could probably do as well as Dice.
embrace the martian
Twitter: @BoldandBrash
by BoldandBrash on Nov 30, 2010 7:15 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Martin?
give him maybe 8 mil one year incentive laden, and a option year, have to see how he works out for the year, if not split time with Salty anyways
$8 million is too much for Martin.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Nov 30, 2010 4:41 PM EST up reply actions
as of now, if he's non-tendered
he’ll be getting nothing. His 2010 wasn’t exactly inspiring enough for a good raise. I’d guess probably $6 million.
I would wager he gets considerably less, if he gets a major league deal at all.
It sounds worse and worse about his hip. I don’t think he’s our guy, but I’d love to see him brought in on an incentive laden deal, leave him in Florida and see where we are come May or June.
does it sound worse?
the latest reports I’ve heard make it sound better than I’d first heard… hairline hip fracture with no damage to the labrum- he should be running again in a week. That sounds pretty positive.
I think $6 million would be reasonable enough for what he could do
maybe put in incentives, but only if he’d give us a club option for 2012 for not much more money. I don’t think it’d be a deal breaker. Frankly, I think if he’s nontendered, he’ll have trouble finding more money on the open market than he made this year.
so if it happens, he could also teach Salty some things too.
Now how about trading one of our Shortstops, and maybe someone else to fill the 5th
starter role, then bring up Ingelias to be the back up infielder
5th Starter Role?
Dice is an excellent 5th starter, where is he going?
Iglesias is no where near being major league ready. His defense is there, it always has been, but you’ve got to be able to at least crack a .700 OPS in my eyes to be a via option even as a back up. He hasn’t shown he can do that yet.
$6mil would be enough for Martin, no incentives. The man got paid $5M last season and might not even get offered a contract, he isn’t in line for a huge raise by any means.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
Agreed, Dice is our 5th starter and a damn good one at that
Maybe an expensive one, but oh well, we’re paying him what we’re paying him. And even if Iglesias WAS ready (which he’s not), why bring him up as a backup? Kind of defeats the whole purpose of letting minor leaguers develop in the minor leagues.
No, if we trade one of our SS, it will likely be Scutaro and likely for either prospects or bullpen help. There’s no reason to trade Lowrie, unless it’s part of a blockbuster deal. Which I’m not really in favor of anyway.
I think Martin would be thankful for a $6M contract, especially if it comes with a job attached.
yeah I think if Iglesias wants to be a major leaguer
then this year he needs to either find a bat to be an everyday player or learn to field second and third well and get used to sitting on benches.
Before we get to giddy about Lavern & Shirley as the next sure things please take a look at Salty's numbers coming up through the system
Imagine in 3-4 years Having both Exposito and Lavarnway in their primes.
Well, if this is right on track for 2011 then what exactly dictates being off-track?
Bloggy raises a valid concern :
I suppose my issue is that in all our discussions of our catcher situation, and they have been extensive, I’ve not once seen the remark, "We just need to hold the line for a year, and then XXXX will be ready."
And, he was the centerpiece of the Tex trade if I recall….my point? Well, my point is until they produce at the MLB level it is a crap shoot as Bloggy so aptly pointed out. And, my question is: “How do those guys compare to Salty?”
One thing is for sure from most fan’s viewpoint- if Salty starts and is respectable (and, the Scouts say he has the skills) then Theo is a complete genious. However, if Salty bombs while V-Mart tears it up then Theo is a complete (fill in the blank).
The problem is that Salty is going to feel fan backlash from losing V-Mart. The Laser Show, on the other hand, struggled for two months when he got his shot, but the fans were not feeling the sting of losing a favorite…and he rose to the occasion. Salty will have to do it under pressure.
I will say this, I am reallly looking forward to seeing if the draft picks pan out. However, waiting for 3-4 years for the next MLB catcher does not sound appealing to me.
At this point, my comments on the plan are this:
I think in light of Salty’s minor league stats, his unmet potential from his MLB njuries and pressure around the Tex trade where he was seen as sure thing (remember when people wanted to trade Buch for him???), etc maybe the FO thinks he is the real deal and they need to commit to him for a full season? If that is the case then fine I can live with it – but, don’t blow smoke up my fourth point of contact and tell me you want V-Mart when the ‘plan’ is give Salty the job…just sayin’
"Man that ball got outta here in a hurry, you know anything that travels that far oughta have a damn stewardess on it, don't you think?" - Crash Davis
What if...
Just saying…
LF Ellsbury
2B Laser Show
1B Youk
DH Ortiz
3B Lowrie
RF Drew
CF Kalish
C Salty/Varitek
SS Scutaro
I won’t lie. This would excite me for 2012 like no other year in Red Sox history. Subtract Ortiz, Drew, Cameron, Scutaro, Wakefield, and Papelbon’s contracts. The we would have a payroll at around $73 mil, meaning around $100 million to spend on FA plus most of the hyped prospects to a point where we could completely evaluate them.
Just imagine that spending money with more organizational info and the following to choose from potentially: Pujols, A-Gon, Fielder, Uggla, Beltran, Hart, Oswalt, Broxton and Bell.
Just sayin.
Cameron will be starting in 2011.
Sorry for everyone who wants Kalish starting in 2011, it ain’t happening.
And why would we sign A-Gon when we already have one of the best 1B in the game? Youk isn’t gonna DH with his defense, and I don’t see Theo paying 20mm to Adrian to DH. Unless you plan on moving someone like Kelly Johnson or Dan Uggla to third, there’s going to be nobody who hits at third like Beltre does, even in his non-contract years.
The outfield is an issue, the only outfield names that jump out at me for 2012 are Jose Bautista, David DeJesus, Michael Cuddyer, and Carlos Beltran. We’ll still have 5 starters in 2012, and possibly have two prospects ready to join the rotation in 2013, Doubront and Kelly. Broxton and Bell are nice pieces, but we couldn’t get both of them if they both want to close, so maybe one of two.
So… Maybe we could push signing an outfielder back, make a push for DeJesus or Bautista, but I would be leery about putting Dan Uggla or Kelly Johnson at third, and after those two the options are… what? Aramis Ramirez? Jed Lowrie? Lowrie has a lot more value as a SS than as a 3B, although the SS market is fairly strong next year.
The sad fact is, this years FA class is stronger than next years, and the potential trades being worked on this offseason, particularly at catcher and in the outfield (Martin, Upton) are stronger than any of the FA options for this year or next year.
Just sayin.
If I was your math homework I'd be really hard and you'd be doing me on your desk.
I'm a 7 WAR player in bed.
the thing is, both Crawford and Werth
are wayyyyyyyyyyy better players than Dejesus. Almost definitely Bautista as well, unless he can replicate his home run king ways in 2012.
This year should be interesting in regards to Bautista
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
That's why it was a maybe.
I was refuting the claim that having 100m to spend next year was a good idea. Outside 1B/DH, RP and SS there’s not much to choose from.
If I was your math homework I'd be really hard and you'd be doing me on your desk.
I'm a 7 WAR player in bed.
by TheLoneDavid on Dec 1, 2010 12:37 PM EST up reply actions
I hope the Upton kid is in the plan along with Beltre too
Upton brings youth and proven ability to the table
Beltre brings experience and proven ability to the table
Upton will cost in depth
Beltre will cost in $
However, neither breaks the farm or the bank…
"Man that ball got outta here in a hurry, you know anything that travels that far oughta have a damn stewardess on it, don't you think?" - Crash Davis
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