Adrian Beltre Declines Player Option; Red Sox Nation Is Shocked

by Ben Buchanan on Nov 3, 2010 3:19 PM EDT in News

NEW YORK - SEPTEMBER 26: Adrian Beltre #29 of the Boston Red Sox looks on during warm-ups prior to the start of the game against the New York Yankees on September 26 2010 at Yankee Stadium in the Bronx borough of New York City. (Photo by Mike Stobe/Getty Images)

Adrian Beltre has declined his $10 million player option according to Rob Bradford, an entirely unexpected move that has sent Red Sox nation into absolute turmoil.

Alright, so maybe not. If you didn't see this coming since July, then you must have missed a lot of games. After hitting .321/.365/.553 for the Red Sox this past season, Beltre can make a lot more money and get a lot more years in free agency.

The question now becomes whether or not the Sox can bring him back in free agency. Between high demands, Scott Boras, and a desire to move closer to his family out west, Beltre is going to be a tough get for Theo. The fact that he has only once before reached this level of production in his 13-year career could raise enough red flags for enough teams to keep the price within range. But with the third baseman going on 32, Beltre might not even be the most comfortable of acquisitions for a front office that has been burned by aging players before.

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I blame VMart...

…and the rest of his tormentors. They shouldn’t have rubbed his head.

by ericsoderstrom on Nov 3, 2010 6:29 PM EDT reply actions

Beltre just has that knack

As a Dodger fan, I know full well what it’s like to see Beltre spend a few years plodding along, being a league-average third baseman until it’s a contract year, then going nuts and getting a big deal to go elsewhere. I certainly wouldn’t welcome him back to L.A. for the price he’ll want.

by justincup on Nov 3, 2010 7:25 PM EDT reply actions

hope we can work a deal

but not if it means to over pay him ! he has the blood sucker hanging on to his a$$ so ADRIAN BELTRE thank you for this year and good luck next year

by RED SOX are #1 in my heart on Nov 3, 2010 7:54 PM EDT reply actions

I have decided...

That despite the inherent risks and challenges I would prefer Beltre to return over V-Mart, not that it’s a choice, but if I had to choose one, it would be Adrian. I just feel like I can safely say that he’ll stay at 3B for the next several years, as opposed to Victor and the Catcher position. An 850 OPS with gold glove defense sounds perfectly fine to me.

Not that I want to overpay for either at this point mind you. I just love adding qualifiers to everything concerning FA.

by South Coast Ghost on Nov 3, 2010 8:07 PM EDT reply actions

Well

we are far more hosed at C than at 3b. At least Lowrie, Youkilis and Scutaro have played 3b before, while we basically have no viable catching option (and no Salty is not one). It is not a direct choice (that is we do not have to sign VMart to find a viable catching option) but I would like to add as well that VMart has been far more consistent in his value than Beltre, and basically matched expectations even though he broke his thumb this year. Both players are risky and will not be cheap, but given circumstances, I would say VMart is both more valuable in the absolute sense, clearly more valuable in the relative sense (meaning that we have a big 0 at C and have some options already at 3b) and possibly cheaper/less years (although that is hard to say).

by Buzzy on Nov 3, 2010 9:21 PM EDT up reply actions

I don't necessarily disagree

I just don’t like V-Mart as a full-time DH which is what I think he’ll be at the end of his contract, and I’m not convinced Beltre gets more than 4 years until we get a better idea of what his market is like.

by South Coast Ghost on Nov 4, 2010 8:44 AM EDT up reply actions

Agree completely

With Buzzy.

I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.

by Drugs Delaney on Nov 4, 2010 9:44 AM EDT up reply actions

Agreed

No viable catching options avaialbe, and there is a lot to be said for consistency at catching.

by Scoop1981 on Nov 4, 2010 11:10 AM EDT up reply actions

agree mostly

except that you’re understating (or omitting) just how bad VMart is at throwing out baserunners.
The Sox need to retain at least one of the two and bring in at least one more big bat.

by RickD on Nov 4, 2010 1:23 PM EDT up reply actions

Meh

Runners steal as much on pitchers as they do on catchers. VMart threw out 21% of base-stealers last year, better than both of the MFY catchers.

I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.

by Drugs Delaney on Nov 4, 2010 1:52 PM EDT up reply actions

And he improved as the year went on

According to the eye test, anyhow.

Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.

@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard

by Bloggy on Nov 4, 2010 10:42 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

vmart threw out 21% of crooks is misleading

he had a lot more chances and the additional chances were folks like vlad the gimp, and many others who had only one sb attempt in their career dating back to little league.

in practice, they had vmart trying to throw out folks from the retirement hospital, until two ladies on walkers crashed and hurt themselves. it was ugly. and so was the crash.

by Mick Lowe on Nov 5, 2010 1:31 PM EDT up reply actions

Hold on

number of chances is beside the point, as a percentage does not care. In fact the more chances the more accurate the percentage is as a predictor. And as I recall, even Vlad was running on the Yankees in the playoffs…

by Buzzy on Nov 5, 2010 2:09 PM EDT up reply actions

not sure Posada is the bar you want to set for catchers throwing runners out though...

by wolf9309 on Nov 5, 2010 5:42 PM EDT up reply actions

agreed

but same holds for Cervelli, and was the “bar” mentioned by Drugs above
:-)

by Buzzy on Nov 5, 2010 8:33 PM EDT up reply actions

yea, i know how percentages work that's why i quantified with

“the additional chances were folks like vlad the gimp, and many others who had only one sb attempt in their career dating back to little league.”

this quote implied that the baserunners were slow, non base stealing threats.

’In fact the more chances the more accurate the percentage is as a predictor"
yes, thats true if all chances are equal.

i tried to differentiate that the chances weren’t equal with my jokes about the old folks home.

by Mick Lowe on Nov 6, 2010 12:59 PM EDT up reply actions

Vlad did steal more bases in '10 than

Cano, Swisher, and A-Rod. He’s sneaky fast ;-)

by went9 on Nov 6, 2010 2:27 PM EDT up reply actions

probably better to be sneaky fast than

just plain slow

by Mick Lowe on Nov 6, 2010 3:59 PM EDT up reply actions

I'm sure we'll make an offer to keep him and I'm sure he'll reject it.

Then he’ll sign with someone who will overpay him and he’ll turn in sub-2010 offensive production as he did following his last great offensive year.

Presenting this year’s Jason Bay. OK, not to that degree, but you get the idea. I don’t get the impression he wants to be here anyway. Like Ben said, he wants to go back west. Giants? Rockies? Angels, perhaps?

by dsharp on Nov 3, 2010 8:32 PM EDT reply actions

Let Him Go.....

He really isn’t ALL that great, anyway. Good, yes. Great…nada.

by Sherice on Nov 3, 2010 9:14 PM EDT reply actions

incorrect.

by wolf9309 on Nov 3, 2010 10:51 PM EDT up reply actions

Last year it was incorrect

Usually, though, he has been good-not-great.

Whether that’s a result of Safeco or not is the real question.

Over the Monster -- SB Nation's Resident Red Sox Site
USG

by Ben Buchanan on Nov 4, 2010 12:51 AM EDT up reply actions

I don't disagree, but ...

Excluding last year as a fluke (7.1 WAR) and the year before because of injury (2.5 WAR), Beltre was very good the three seasons prior (combined 11.9 WAR). By value, he was in the top ten (both leagues) in WAR for 3B each year from 2006 to 2008. If Beltre can be a 4 WAR player, he better than just “good.”

I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.

by Drugs Delaney on Nov 4, 2010 9:54 AM EDT up reply actions

yeah i'll settle for very good

not less than that though!

by wolf9309 on Nov 4, 2010 12:18 PM EDT up reply actions

Flat out erroneous comment.

Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.

@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard

by Bloggy on Nov 4, 2010 6:55 AM EDT up reply actions

he is great?

He had a great season, and I’d say he’s a great defensive player, but he’s not a great hitting 3b, at least not for most of his career.

by RickD on Nov 4, 2010 1:24 PM EDT up reply actions

Bye Bye Beltre

Good luck with whatever team signs you, as long as it’s any of the other 29.

by Sean O on Nov 3, 2010 9:27 PM EDT reply actions

I'm SHOCKED, SHOCKED that the option was declined!

Adrian Beltre is why we can't have healthy outfielders.

by 0157H7 on Nov 3, 2010 9:42 PM EDT reply actions

Oh, sir. Well done!

You even have the “you winnings, sir” guy comin’ up in the background.

Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.

@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard

by Bloggy on Nov 4, 2010 6:54 AM EDT up reply actions

not shocked, dismayed, but not shocked

I liked his bat, and he was ok to good as a infielder. but not for over 10M a year and a loooong term contract. the Sox have some long term problems and it looks like several years of rebuilding ahead. So hasta, amigo, find a nice home in the NL West.

by papoonforpresident on Nov 3, 2010 9:54 PM EDT reply actions

uh it looks like years of rebuilding ahead?

have you seen other MLB teams? This one’s pretty stacked…

by wolf9309 on Nov 3, 2010 10:51 PM EDT up reply actions

We're in the AL Beast

And have no solution, currently, for many many key positions.

by Sean O on Nov 3, 2010 10:56 PM EDT up reply actions

Name Them Please?

I mean that’s the issues of FA looming for sure, but not counting those positions which positions are completely screwed on?

I think catching we can agree on, and to a degree the bullpen, but where else? I’m just asking to get an opinion honestly.

by Raj Ghetia on Nov 4, 2010 12:24 AM EDT up reply actions

3b – Lowrie, sorta, if you trust that he won’t have another mystery injury and can hit league-avg.
SS – Scutaro isn’t a solution in the Beast.
CF – I don’t trust 38/39 year old Cameron bringing anything to the table.
C – Nobody at all.
Bullpen – Everyone but Bard is a ?

There is much work to be done.

by Sean O on Nov 4, 2010 3:09 PM EDT up reply actions

Yes, which would mean rebuilding if we didn't have $60 million to spend.

Over the Monster -- SB Nation's Resident Red Sox Site
USG

by Ben Buchanan on Nov 4, 2010 5:09 PM EDT up reply actions

exactly

by wolf9309 on Nov 4, 2010 6:27 PM EDT up reply actions

Throwing money at First Baseman Victor Martinez

Still isn’t a solution.

I’m ok on Crawford up to a point, no on Martinez and Beltre. There are worse ways to go than Youth Movement (plus Salty, who is youth-ish), just no more mutli-year contracts for declining players. And if we could find a shortstop, that would be awesome.

by Sean O on Nov 5, 2010 12:16 AM EDT up reply actions

Salty sucks

I’d rather pay VMart than rely on Salty. What indications do you have that VMart will be unable to catch at age 35 (his age at the end of a 4-year year contract)?

Younger doesn’t always equal better. Buzzy spelled out the problems well in his post on this thread. Perhaps you didn’t read it. Unless the Sox can acquire another legit MLB catcher (like an Iannetta, even though I’m not completely sold on him), VMart is the best solution.

Youth movements mean rebuilding, and take time. The Sox aren’t going to gut their team to rebuild that way. They don’t have to, and won’t because it’s not the smartest way to improve the team.

I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.

by Drugs Delaney on Nov 5, 2010 11:20 AM EDT up reply actions

Don't you know

Sean “98 wins/this team never had a chance” O does not read my posts.

One thing about VMart is that I have a feeling he is not going to be a DH as soon as others do. Like Posada, he was a converted infielder. He thus has less wear going back to his teens playing catcher and an athletic construction. He is also 31 (soon to be 32), but has been remarkably consistent-if you remove the injury plagued 2008 season his OPS+s (just because I am on baseball reference and too lazy to look up anything else) have been 125,130,122,129,126,133,122. That is remarkable consistency. I would bet that he can do this for at least 2 more years, slip a bit (but still put up decent C numbers and be able to play the position) for an additional 2 more. A 4 year contract is risky, but perhaps not death. With nothing else out there-I think this might be a necessity unless a trade is worked out.

by Buzzy on Nov 5, 2010 11:42 AM EDT up reply actions

I tend to agree

Here are VMart’s wOBA’s since 2004, excluding 2008 (when he was hurt):

.358
.365
.369
.372
.375
.364

Pretty consistent.

I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.

by Drugs Delaney on Nov 5, 2010 12:03 PM EDT up reply actions

I agree, VMart is top priority.

And there is no guarantee that he cannot keep catching for 3-4 more years. And at worst, he moves to DH for a year or two, where his production is (somewhat, but not incredibly!) overpaid.

But some reports are making it sound like he might get a 5-6 year deal from someone. This is all speculation (and absurd, if you ask me), but there is no way we should go over 3-4 years on him.

by travben85 on Nov 5, 2010 1:08 PM EDT up reply actions

the only speculation I've seen is that MAYBE the Tigers woul give him 5

I don’t think anyone would go more and I think it’s unlikely that they would even do that. In any case, I’m sure the Sox never would go over 4 at the very most.

by wolf9309 on Nov 5, 2010 1:17 PM EDT up reply actions

I agree with this as well.

I don’t sign on with the folks who just assume VMart will break down. And he is just SUCH A BETTER OPTION than anything else out there.

VMart hitting .220 4 years from now after hitting .280 – .310 up to that point (or whatever scenario for breakdown you want to give) is better than losing that productivity now while Salty does his best Mendoza.

Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.

@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard

by Bloggy on Nov 8, 2010 4:14 PM EST up reply actions

we were in a worst postion last year at this time

“And have no solution, currently, for many many key positions.”

plenty of options out there

and really, on the o/d side of the ball, we only need a catcher better than salty

by Mick Lowe on Nov 4, 2010 11:22 AM EDT up reply actions

About the Same

We have no 3rd baseman vs. one who couldn’t walk.
We have no catcher vs. no left fielder.

Like last year, we have options in both of those. V-Mart is not the only catcher out there. Buck may have a few more productive years in him so we can sort out the catching prospects.

There are decent options at both 3rd & 1st. So, the sky is not falling.

simul justus et peccator

by cavman on Nov 4, 2010 1:15 PM EDT up reply actions

not as bad as that

Youk can play 3b, so all we need is a bat to put in at 1b.

by RickD on Nov 4, 2010 1:25 PM EDT up reply actions

Surprised?? Not Really....

And seeing how he really wants to go back west, I’d expect another team to snag him. Any team in the AL West or NL West that needs a 3B and has the money, will certainly pick up the pace to grab Beltre. Maybe we’ll be in the race to drive up the price, but in some aspects, I’d be surprised if he’s back.

Especially seeing how he wants to be close to home. That draw pulls hard.

by Raj Ghetia on Nov 4, 2010 12:27 AM EDT reply actions

negotiating ploy

by Mick Lowe on Nov 4, 2010 11:23 AM EDT up reply actions

I want Beltre back.

This is what I want.

Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.

@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard

by Bloggy on Nov 4, 2010 6:55 AM EDT reply actions

Agreed

by South Coast Ghost on Nov 4, 2010 8:41 AM EDT up reply actions

Bring back the tank!!!

"Man that ball got outta here in a hurry, you know anything that travels that far oughta have a damn stewardess on it, don't you think?" - Crash Davis

by Dave D on Nov 4, 2010 9:08 AM EDT reply actions