Red Sox Interested In Twins Reliever Matt Guerrier
by Jared Stegall on Nov 28, 2010 8:39 PM EST
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According to a major league source, the Red Sox are interested in free agent relief pitcher Matt Guerrier, who has spent his entire seven-year career with the Minnesota Twins.
Guerrier, 32, has been a very reliable source for the Twins in his career as he led the American League with 79 appearances during the 2009 season. In 2010, Guerrier went 5-7 with a 3.17 ERA in 74 games.
Guerrier could be a good option for the Red Sox as he is primarily a ground ball pitcher and could be an option if the Red Sox depart with either Daniel Bard or Jonathan Papelbon via trade this offseason. He held right-handers to a .210 average and compiled just 22 walks in 71 innings for Minnesota.
Guerrier had a downside entering free agency as he is a Type-A free agent, which would usually require any team that would sign him (besides the Twins) a high end draft pick in return. But because the Twins did not offer him arbitration, it would not cost the Red Sox anything.
Here are Guerrier's numbers from 2010:
| W-L | G | GS | CG | SHO | SV | BS | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | K | ERA | WHIP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 - Matt Guerrier | 5-7 | 74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 71.0 | 56 | 28 | 25 | 7 | 22 | 42 | 3.17 | 1.10 |
Guerrier right now is the best right-handed non-closer reliever on the market that was not offered arbitration. The Red Sox have been looking for bullpen help this offseason, and Guerrier could be a good option, as he has averaged about 70 innings a season. Could be a good option for the thin Red Sox bullpen.
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I'd love for this to happen.
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Good results, no real peripherals to back them up.
Not sure I like this if the Sox can’t bring back Beltre. The IF defense could be seriously questionable next year.
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Agree for the most part
I’m not a big Guerrier fan. However, since he won’t cost picks, I’m OK with the Sox getting him if the price and years are right.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Nov 29, 2010 9:06 AM EST up reply actions
As long as he's cheap, I'm OK,
but otherwise I don’t like the guy.
embrace the martian
Twitter: @BoldandBrash
by BoldandBrash on Nov 28, 2010 9:58 PM EST via mobile reply actions
Nice option
No the strikeout pitcher that I’m hoping they can acquire (ex: Putz) but as long as you are getting outs, that’s all that matters.
He'd be OK
there’s other pitchers out there I’d much rather see them acquire. I’m kind of figuring the Sox original draft pick choices are going to be gone anyways, so I don’t imagine arbitration would be an issue. But who knows, maybe they won’t make any huge free agent signings. Hard to imagine them not getting at least one of Werth, Crawford, and Downs though, to me.
Yeah
There are others I’d prefer, such as Putz, but if Guerrier will come cheap I’d pick him up. He’s not bad, but very low BABIP’s the past two years. FIP says a low 4’s.
If Bobby Jenks is non-tendered I’d take a look into him as well, but I bet he gets a closer’s job somewhere.
by South Coast Ghost on Nov 29, 2010 9:36 AM EST up reply actions
exactly
the one perk I can see to Guerrier is they can probably get him on a one-year deal. Which may, in itself, be the decision-maker. I’m fine with them picking him up as long as they get someone reliable, like Downs (who certainly won’t come on a one-year deal)
Not is you look at his secondary numbers.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Nov 29, 2010 9:43 AM EST up reply actions
Not if you believe in peace.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
FIP?
Not a big fan. It doesn’t make sense to me to assume that BABIP is a product of luck but HRs are not.
Manny ain't the only bad man.
HRs are a product of FB%
BABIP can likely be slightly influenced by being a GB/FB pitcher, but really only a negligible amount.
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by Ben Buchanan on Nov 30, 2010 12:58 AM EST up reply actions
HRs as a percentage of FBs actually vary quite a bit
Poke around some on fangraphs. Guys will have virtually identical GB/FB/LD splits from one year to the next but their HR/FB% and HR/9 will change quite a bit from season to season.
Manny ain't the only bad man.
Exactly
Which shows it’s not a repeatable skill.
But HR/FB over the course of a career regresses towards around 10-11% while GB/FB are often similar and BABIP bounces around thanks to ever-changing defenses.
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by Ben Buchanan on Nov 30, 2010 1:03 PM EST up reply actions
What's not a repeatable skill?
The ability to keep a fly ball in the park? Doesn’t FIP rely in great part on HR%?
FIP = (HR*13+(BB+HBP-IBB)3-K2)/IP.
But if HRs are dependent on luck, then all you’re really looking at are Ks, BBs, HBP, and the random variance of how far a fly ball happened to travel. What makes that any less arbitrary than BABIP?
Manny ain't the only bad man.
Not a big fan of ERA
Especially for relievers.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Nov 30, 2010 9:04 AM EST up reply actions
Certain guys regularly outperform their FIP
Take Mo. Career ERA is a half a point better than his career FIP. At some point, you have to question why that is. It’s certainly not the defensive whiz at SS….
The one season in the last five that Guerrier’s ERA wasn’t significantly better than his FIP his BB/9 were through the roof and he allowed more homers than usual. Otherwise, his peripherals (K/9, GB/FB/LD%) were relatively constant.
Manny ain't the only bad man.
it's generally a better indicator of the future than ERA is
there’s always some exceptions, but in general. Especially when switching teams/defenses
And it's not really saying BABIP is necessarily a product of luck
it implies that BABIP fluctuations are a product of luck, but what is says is that BABIP is a factor of the defense behind the pitcher, which it is trying to remove from the calculation. Year to year, almost all pitchers have a more consistent FIP than ERA
BABIP is *IN PART* a factor of the defense
Trust me, if I got on the mound, my BABIP would be through the roof, regardless of who I had behind me. Laser show city.
If BABIP were purely a factor of the defense, then you’d see a pretty straight inverse correlation between team UZR (or whatever the preferred defensive metric of the month is) and team BAPIP. But you don’t. It’s not ever close. Not all contact is created equal. Yes, certain guys have particularly good or bad luck with their defense in particular seasons, but given a large enough sample size, that should normalize, and the guys who have better BABIPs – the Madduxes, etc. – are simply better ptchers, just like certain hitters are more likely to have the balls in play turn into hits.
Manny ain't the only bad man.
yes this is true
BABIP has enough of the defense in it, however, that it’s not a really good gauge of a pitcher.
But this IS why it’s important when judging batters and pitchers to look at other factors such as line drive%, infield fly ball , GB, etc. The only part where the defense and luck really come in is the variance between the BABIP and the expected BABIP, as I see it.
Expected BABIP over the course of a season could probably be worked into a more effective stat to judge a pitcher, just off the top of my head. But I haven’t (and won’t) done the research and testing that’s involved in demonstrating that, and I don’t know how it would be worked in.
Serviceable long reliever.
Of course, we could always trade for Ramram or MDC if we really wanted to, and, of course, Boof Bonser’s phone likely hasn’t been disconnected yet.
IOW, not a bad arm to add at all.
What does "IOW" mean?
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
Why was he not offered arb?
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
presumably they thought he'd accept
and they didn’t want to pay him the $5 million he’d probably make in arb. Which makes sense, for a team with some relatively expensive players, that’s a lot to pay a good middle reliever.
I figured it was that reason.
$5mil? That is quite a bit.
Out of curiosity, how often are players not offered arbitration, but then re-negotiate and sign with the same team? Seems unlikely, hey?
Also…did we end up offering Paps arb? I don’t remember hearing anything about that.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
Not an impending FA
So we haven’t had to yet.
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by Ben Buchanan on Nov 29, 2010 7:32 PM EST up reply actions
$5 million is just a guess by me, really
He made $3.15 million last year and had a very productive year in the stats that arbitrators reward, so really, I’d guess he’d get a bit less than that. Maybe more like $4-4.5. More than he’s likely to be worth in 2011 at any rate.
It seems to happen fairly often that a player will just re-sign with the same team for less. Probably all other offers being equal, they’d rather not completely shake up their life and team.
The non-tender deadline is Thursday I believe. So by midnight thursday the Sox have to decide whether they are going to tender contracts to the players who don’t have enough playing time for free agency (Ellsbury, Papelbon, and Okajima). All indications are that they intend to keep Paps around, but I’m still keeping my hopes alive that Theo’s trying to pull a fast one on someone else by trading him. Or non-tendering him.
"Out of curiosity, how often are players not offered arbitration, but then re-negotiate and sign with the same team? "
i think that happens often. jeter and mariano are in that situation now.
the unusual situation is when a team offers arbitration and the player rejects it, only to have to come back later and sign for less.
this happened to veritek.
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