The Catastrophic Off Season Scenario

by radiohix on Nov 22, 2010 11:13 AM EST in Analysis

One of my favorite non-Red Sox blogs is certainly Baseball Time in Arlington: I think Joey Matches and his crew provide some of the best Texas Rangers analysis out there. Anyway, 2 days ago I came across this story by Josh Garoon. It was, in the author's words, "a speculative, cynical, and entirely tongue-in-cheek look ahead" and it left me thinking "What would be the equivalent for my beloved club?".

We'll find out after the jump.

November 27, 2010: Billy Beane and the A's hold a press conference to introduce their new third baseman Adrian Beltre. "Moving back to the West Coast was a priority for me and my family" declared the defensive wizard. Sure, and having a 5-year contract worth $ 64.5 million dollars doesn't hurt either.

November 29, 2010: Grant Balfour accepts salary arbitration offer from the Rays.

December 2, 2010: The Baltimore Orioles win the rights to negotiate with Japanese Shortstop Tsuyoshi Nishioka, who was posted by the Chiba Lotte Marines. The Red Sox sign Type A Free Agent reliever Scott Downs to a 3 years contract worth $ 21 millions.

December 6-9, 2010: Baseball's Winter Meetings begin in Orlando, Florida. The New York Yankees trade Manny Banuelos, Phil Hughes and Eduardo Nunez to the Marlins for Josh Johnson. "We're not done yet" declared an enthusiastic Brian Cashman to the media. The Rays send Grant Balfour, Jake McGee and Kelly Shoppach to the Angels in exchange of Mike Napoli. "We had pretty good production out of the RF position in 2009 by platooning Kapler/Gross, we feel like doing it again at the catcher position. Mike will also see sometime at First base and the DH spot. We're obviously thrilled to have him" declared Andrew Friedman to The St. Petersburg Times. The Red Sox trade Marco Scutaro to the San Diego Padres in exchange of RP Tim Stauffer and a PTBNL.

December 12, 2010: The Orioles signs Derek Lee to a 1 year/ $9 Million deal two days after reaching an agreement with Nishioka on a 4 years contract.

December 14, 2010: Ken Rosenthal tweets

Cliff Lee, Yankees close to an agreement #mlb #Yankees #Rangers

1 hour later:

Both parties reach an agreement: 5 years/ $125 Million pending medicals #mlb #Yankees

December 15, 2010: Dan Shaughnessy writes a column in the Boston Globe in which he claims that the Henry Group is more focused on Liverpool soccer club, have given up on the season already and the fans should "punish" them in return by ending the sold out streak.

December 17, 2010: T.R Sullivan is reporting that the Texas Rangers have reached a 4 years/ $ 52 millions with free agent catcher Victor Martinez. Experts view this signing as a reaction to the Lee signing and a strong message from Nolan and his group to their fanbase that they're committed to compete for a title.

December 19, 2010: Red Sox general manager Theo Epstein in the Dale & Holley show "We have the resources to sign one or two of the big names on FA market and we're still talking with many of them". In response to the trade rumors about the Red Sox looking for a right handed hitting catcher "We're talking to other teams about some trade proposals that I can't obviously discuss in public".

December 21, 2010: MLB Fanhouse reports that the Braves and the Red Sox negotiations about catcher David Ross were inconclusive. The Tampa Bay Rays trade Jason Bartlett to the Cincinnati Reds for Nick Masset.

December 22, 2010: Red Sox sign J. Varitek to a one year/ $1.2 million contract. "Saltalamacchia will be our primary catcher. Tucky [catching instructor Gary Tuck] REALLY loves him" Terry Francona tells reporters in a conference call.

December 27, 2010: Boston Red Sox sign Carl Crawford to 7 years/$120 million deal. When asked if the team have any concerns about Crawford's knees after playing 8 years on turf, Theo Epstein says " Dr Gill and his staff are very confident that this will be a non-issue". In response to the reporters questions about who's going to play third base, the Red Sox GM's answer is Kevin Youkilis. "We feel like Lars Anderson is ready to handle first base at the major league level". When asked if this Crawford signing represent the organization last significant move for the off season, Epstein answer is "Yes, we're very happy with the roster we've assembled, and we feel we'll be competitive once again this season".

February 13, 2011: Pitchers and catchers report.

The point of this post is that we play in the most competitive division in baseball: All the teams playing in the AL East have deep farm systems and competent front offices who are not shy of making trades and being creative with the use of their resources. Misreading the market or not pulling the trigger when a good opportunity presents it self could have catastrophic consequences.

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Comments

Yeah...

I do not like those scenerios! ;)

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by Marisa Ingemi on Nov 22, 2010 11:17 AM EST reply actions

The Scariest Part...

Of that post for me was Carl Crawford for SEVEN years… That’s a Yankees move…

by irish_celtic_fan on Nov 22, 2010 11:28 AM EST reply actions

Continually overspending

on aging questionmarks like Beltre and Martinez, sinking our future flexibility, is a far greater catastrophy. See Beckett, Josh and Lacking, Jon.

by Sean O on Nov 22, 2010 12:05 PM EST reply actions

Long-term contracts would be bad.

But a high-dollar, short-term contract—or a longer-term contract that was front-loaded to mitigate risk—wouldn’t be as big a deal. There’s no reason to suspect Beltre and Martinez will fall off a cliff in the next year or two.

Fenway: "An alternate and better universe, disguised as a ballpark." --Thomas Boswell

by lone1c on Nov 22, 2010 12:07 PM EST up reply actions

Just isn't going to happen

Belter isn’t signing a 2 year deal for anything under $20m per.

by Sean O on Nov 23, 2010 5:15 PM EST up reply actions

I could live with 2/40.

If it meant he wasn’t on the Sox’s books in 2013 and beyond.

Fenway: "An alternate and better universe, disguised as a ballpark." --Thomas Boswell

by lone1c on Nov 24, 2010 10:28 AM EST up reply actions

The other corollary

Is that the wrong trade can also have an impact. Imagine what we’d be saying if we had traded for Santana right now. Imagine what the last three seasons would have looked like without Ellsbury, Lowrie, and Lester.

Or similarly, if we had pulled the trigger on the Bay deal.

Fenway: "An alternate and better universe, disguised as a ballpark." --Thomas Boswell

by lone1c on Nov 22, 2010 12:08 PM EST reply actions

Overpaying money and time for Downs and Crawford while losing Beltre/Martinez is the worst case scenario?

Oh, I can imagine a whole lot worse…

Imagine if Papi were to start with a sub-.200 April; if Youk and Pedroia got injured and missed 2 or 3 months each; if an expensive, new pitcher turned out to have a mediocre year; if we couldn’t keep a LF healthy due to a contagious case of broken ribs going around; if Bill Hall and Darnell McDonald were everyday starters; if JD Drew had his worse year as a Red Sox; Kevin Cash – ‘nuff said; if Beckett had a disgustingly high ERA after singing a new, huge deal… oh yeah, there’s worse.

by dsharp on Nov 22, 2010 12:30 PM EST reply actions

December 15, 2010: Dan Shaughnessy writes a column in the Boston Globe in which he claims that the Henry Group , more focused on Liverpool soccer club, have gave up on the season already and the fans should “punish” them in return by ending the sold out streak.

Guarantee the Shank already has this article written. Dead on.

Bullpen Banter
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twitter: @alskor

by alskor on Nov 22, 2010 12:37 PM EST reply actions

I thought this was a very nice touch.

Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.

@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard

by Bloggy on Nov 22, 2010 12:48 PM EST up reply actions

Also amusing how our "catastrophic" scenario still has us landing Carl Crawford...

I’d be pretty happy.

Bullpen Banter
www.bullpenbanter.com
twitter: @alskor

by alskor on Nov 22, 2010 1:05 PM EST reply actions

if that is the worst case scenario

I don’t feel too bad. Anderson at first and salty catching is a big downgrade, but they would still sign A-Gon next offseason and still have all their. Top young talent. A far worse scenario would be a trade involving Bard, Buchholz or Kelly that just isn’t worth that price. Part of what the Sox have to do is bridging the gap between their aging talent and their top prospects. Anderson and Salty do that, but little more. The bit on Shaughnessy is dead on.

- Matt Sullivan
"I would change policy, bring back natural grass and nickel beer. Baseball is the belly-button of our society. Straighten out baseball, and you straighten out the rest of the world." Bill "Spaceman" Lee
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by Mattsullivan on Nov 22, 2010 1:06 PM EST reply actions

DON'T SAY BRIDGE

WE KNOW WHAT HAPPENS WHEN SOMEONE SAYS BRIDGE. CATASTROPHIC.

by wolf9309 on Nov 22, 2010 1:12 PM EST up reply actions

Nice article

although I had a problem with the grammatical errors but that’s the teacher in me

by BobZupcic on Nov 22, 2010 1:38 PM EST reply actions

scared

having salty and anderson in our lineup that will go up against this hypothetical yankees lineup would be disastrous. especially if we are injury plagued again

by KFoles12 on Nov 22, 2010 2:23 PM EST reply actions

yankees rotation

by KFoles12 on Nov 22, 2010 2:24 PM EST up reply actions

How can there be any true disaster scenario...

… which doesn’t involve us replacing Scutaro as a super-sub middle-infielder with Julio Lugo. “We’re obviously thrilled to have Julio back in the fold. He obviously was a big part of 2007 and we feel he’ll be a great depth addition to the team.”

Wait 'til next/this year?
"Laser show. So relax."

by nuthinboutnuthin on Nov 22, 2010 3:08 PM EST reply actions

Another two items

December 21st:
Hoping to fill a gap in the corner infield, the Red Sox signed Carlos Pena to a three year, 33 million dollar deal. “We feel that Pena is sure to reverse 4 straight years of declining averages” a tired, and somewhat inebriaited Theo Epstien said. “Bill James promised me he would hit at least .220, so we don’t need Adrian anymore” said the Red Sox General Manager.

Red Sox owner Henry tweeted at 3:14 am Boston time that the Pena signing would free up money to buy a “top flight striker”.

When reached for comment an upbeat Rays Manager Joe Maddon said that while he wished Carlos well, “there was a reason he didn’t play in two of the ALDS games”.

December 24th, 11;40 PM
Gary Shelton of the St. Pete Times blogs the shocking news that the Rays are close to re-signing reliever Rafael Soriano to a 2 year, 23 million dollar contract. Shelton writes that this was made possible by surprising season ticket renewals, which according to an anonymous front office source have soared to over 8,700, "We fill confident we can get over 13,000 to a midweek game!! And nearly half of those will be Rays fans!!! Truly, we have turned the attendance corner here in Tampa." According to Shelton, the new Rays policy of ensuring oxygen tanks are available for the elderly fans who make up so much of the mid-week attendance in Tampa is being credited with the increased ticket sales.

Winning two AL East Titles in the last three years is also playing a "minor role" in the increase.

by flasoxfan on Nov 22, 2010 11:51 PM EST reply actions 1 recs

Ha ha ha ha.

Well done and rec’d.

Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.

@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard

by Bloggy on Nov 23, 2010 7:23 AM EST up reply actions

5 January 2011

The Red Sox are on the lookout for a new 2B and utility IF after Marco Scutaro and All-Star Dustin Pedroia, on a visit to Foxboro stadium, were accidentally eaten by Patriots NT/DE Vince Wilfork and TE Rob Gronkowski during a post-workout buffet.

"We didn’t realize that they were part of the Red Sox," said Gronkowski. "Vince and I were starving after having to run extra drills at the end of practice today, and they were standing right in front of the buffet."

"I was so hungry I couldn’t even think," said Wilfork, remorseful after being informed of what he and Gronkowski had done. "We’re really sorry about screwing things up. Hopefully you guys can find a replacement, right?"

Fenway: "An alternate and better universe, disguised as a ballpark." --Thomas Boswell

by lone1c on Nov 23, 2010 3:22 AM EST reply actions