Justin Upton or Jayson Werth: The Upside of Both for the Red Sox
by Jared Stegall on Nov 22, 2010 7:00 AM EST
in Analysis
Email
Print
The Red Sox knew coming into this offseason that they needed to address several different needs, including the outfield as the team spent 2010 experimenting with several different players like Bill Hall and Darnell McDonald due to injuries to Jacoby Ellsbury and Mike Cameron.
This season, with Ellsbury's name floating around in trade rumors, and with Mike Cameron's health status still in question; the Red Sox could have a big hole in the outfield.
Recently, the Sox have been linked to Arizona Diamondbacks outfielder Justin Upton on the trade market. The Sox, however are not the only suitors for Upton, as the Yankees, Blue Jays, Tigers, and even the Mariners have expressed interest in acquiring the 23-year old.
In addition to Upton, they have expressed interest in free agent outfielder Jayson Werth of the Phillies, and have already contacted Scott Boras, Werth's agent. Even though the Red Sox seem to have the most interest, the Angels or Tigers could jump on Werth if they lose out on the bidding for Carl Crawford as he remains their number one target. The Phillies even have entertained the possibility of re-signing Werth. But with the emergence of rookie outfielder Dominic Brown, the Phillies will likely pass on keeping the high-priced Werth.
Even though the Red Sox have been connected to Carl Crawford, they still remain reluctant to give Crawford the long-term deal he has been seeking. It seems they might not offer more than four years to any free agent this offseason, as proven by the limitations they have placed on keeping Adrian Beltre and Victor Martinez.
Either way, the Red Sox need outfield help, and they will likely acquire either Justin Upton in a trade, or they will sign Jayson Werth this offseason. However, neither will not come cheap.
Let's make the case for both outfielders.
Justin Upton
For Justin Upton, last season was a down year:
| G | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | K | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 - Justin Upton | 133 | 495 | 73 | 135 | 27 | 3 | 17 | 69 | 64 | 152 | 18 | 8 | .273 | .356 | .442 |
In 2010, Upton suffered a decline in almost every offensive category compared to his spectacular 2009, with drops in batting average, home runs, runs batted in, steals, slugging percentage, and on-base percentage.
Upton did spend some time on the disabled list last season, however he played 133 games compared to his 138 played in 2009, which would have increased his AB's. Upton also went from a 5.2 WAR in his 2009 season to a 3.8 WAR his last season--quite the drop off (for you Sabermetric guys).
Despite having a bit of a decline in numbers, Upton still has incredible upside as he is only 23 years old, and is also a great defender in right field. Like his brother B.J, he also is very quick on his feet as he can easily steal 25-30 bases a season. On a side note, Upton also only committed four errors last year, a career low.
Upton would fit well with the Red Sox as he is a very young, and complete player on both sides such as Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis are for the team now.
Essentially, Upton would likely spend the majority of his time in left field for the Red Sox, a position that the likes of Manny Ramirez and Jason Bay, being terrible defenders, could play without the world coming to an end. Upton would also likely slide into the lineup as a number 5-6 hitter in a potential Red Sox lineup.
If the Sox were to acquire Upton, they would have to pay a big price. The Diamondbacks are reportedly seeking a Daniel Bard-Jacoby Ellsbury combo in order to pry Upton loose. Bard, to fix their line of horrendous closers since Jose Valverde departed, and Ellsbury for an established center fielder that could allow Chris Young to slide into a corner outfield spot.
The Sox seem willing to deal Ellsbury, however not so much on Bard. They are still evaluating whether or not Bard, or current closer Jonathan Papelbon is the team's best option at closer going forward. This season will mark Papelbon's final year under team control.
They could try to talk the D'Backs into a Papelbon-Ellsbury combination for Upton and allow Bard to become the full-time closer. Or they could sign All-Star closer Rafael Soriano, and allow Bard to develop a little more as the teams very good set-up man (which wouldn't be a bad idea). Either way, they would likely need to chip in for Papelbon's salary and add some prospects to make up the difference in age and control.
This potential trade could please Theo in that he could give up to players with declining numbers and an expiring contract, for a sharp, young hitter like Upton and still have the pieces to acquire Adrian Gonzalez if he so chose.
Jayson Werth
Jayson Werth seemingly found his career in Philadelphia after so-so seasons with the Dodgers and Blue Jays. Now that Werth is a free agent, here is what he will likely bring to the table for the Sox:
| G | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | K | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 - Jayson Werth | 156 | 554 | 106 | 164 | 46 | 2 | 27 | 85 | 82 | 147 | 13 | 3 | .296 | .388 | .532 |
In 2010, Werth put together a second straight season in which he hit for at least .270/.370/.500. Werth also has established himself as one of the best power-hitting outfielders as he has hit for over 27 home runs for the last two seasons and driven in at least 85 runs. Werth even set a career high mark in doubles with 46 out of the 5 spot in the Phillies lineup, doubling his previous mark.
Sabermetrics wise, Werth recorded a career high in WAR with 5.2 and also had a career high in Rbat with 39 above the average.
Werth has already drawn attention from the Red Sox, as they have already spoken to his agent, Scott Boras regarding Werth. Boras compares Werth to Cardinals' outfielder Matt Holliday, another client of his in terms of offensive production. Holliday received a 7-Year, $120 million contract from the Cardinals last season . Carl Crawford may not even see that kind of money. Werth will likely wait for Crawford to sign in order to gauge the market.
For the Red Sox, they are pursuing Werth beacuse of his ability to play all around the outfield, and because he could seemingly slide into the number five spot behind David Ortiz and Kevin Youkilis in the possibility that both Adrian Beltre and Victor Martinez depart for new teams.
Like Upton, Werth would fit in well, especially hitting in Fenway Park as a right-handed hitter. Werth could play left field the majority of the time, where he has experience (unlike Upton), and he could simply switch back to right field if/when J.D. Drew walks. The only thing is that Werth is older than Upton, and Upton could serve as more of a long-term option for the Red Sox in right field as he is only 23. However, many think that Ryan Kalish is the likely successor as a long-term option in right.
Although the Sox would like to get Werth for maybe a three-year deal, all indications show that they would be willing to give fellow future 32-year old Adrian Beltre a four year contact coming off a big year. So why not Werth?
87 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
I votred Upton, even know it's a looooooong shot.
Kid’s got speed, power and plays great D. I’d would however, be nervous to see who they’d have to give up. Bard, Ellsbury, Doubrount??
What package do you guys think will get it done?
Troy Smith is our future
Trade Danny Granger
by return2greatness on Nov 22, 2010 8:10 AM EST reply actions
Ugh grammar.
Even *though it’s a looooong shot
Troy Smith is our future
Trade Danny Granger
by return2greatness on Nov 22, 2010 8:11 AM EST up reply actions
I can't see Arizona wanting ellsbury
Papelbon or anyone else who is soon to be a free agent. Given Upton’s contract and his potential, they will want two elite prospects or pre-arb major leaguers minimum. From Boston, I think it would take Bard and two of the top ten prospects, maybe Doubront and Kalish or Reddick. The Diamondbacks are looking to move Upton because they can’t compete in the near future. They will want and ultimately get maximum value
- Matt Sullivan
"I would change policy, bring back natural grass and nickel beer. Baseball is the belly-button of our society. Straighten out baseball, and you straighten out the rest of the world." Bill "Spaceman" Lee
www.overthemonster.com
www.spacemanspancakes.wordpress.com
Ellsbury isn't a FA that soon
he has three years of arbitration to go. While they want people for the very long term, they do want players the put on the team now as well, who will keep that fans excited, and as Red Sox Nation should be well aware, Ellsbury is exactly that kind of player.
I think that Upton will cost much more than Bard, Doubront, and Kalish. Something like that plus Ellsbury or some equivalent.
Right, I should have said
He isn’t pre-arb. Ellsbury might have some appeal to Arizona, but he shouldn’t. If you are going to deal Upton, you are essentially saying we are three years from a competitive team. If you acquire a major leaguer, an arbitration eligible player, you are looking at losing him right when the other pieces start to contribute. I focus on Buchholz and Bard because they are still under control for four years, though that is probably just splitting hairs. I agree he will cost more if dealt, though I am doubting that he will be dealt more and more.
- Matt Sullivan
"I would change policy, bring back natural grass and nickel beer. Baseball is the belly-button of our society. Straighten out baseball, and you straighten out the rest of the world." Bill "Spaceman" Lee
www.overthemonster.com
www.spacemanspancakes.wordpress.com
by Mattsullivan on Nov 23, 2010 10:12 AM EST up reply actions
I do agree to a point
but remember they still need players that will keep fans coming until they’re ready to compete. Ellsbury is unlikely to become too expensive and is exciting to watch. They may also believe that they players they can acquire will help them become competitive before they would be with keeping Upton; we’re not talking anything close to a 1:1 trade, they want a lot of pieces. And most of the pieces they’re looking for are already major leaguers, not prospects, so they’d be contributing immediately.
Yeah I’m also doubting he’ll be dealt, almost certainly not to the Sox.
Agreed.
I don’t think Upton is worth giving up what we’d have to give up, when we have the option of going after Werth.
In a vacuum, Upton is a player I would much, much rather have than Werth
But when I think about it in context, I think that Upton will cost way too much- both in prospects, and effectively in dollars, as he will force us to probably replace several young cost-controlled players via free agency over the coming years. I’ll be happy if they find a reasonable way to get him, but effectively, I think despite Werth’s age, Upton provides a greater overall risk to the organization, and I’d feel more comfortable with a team that included Werth, Bard, Ellsbury, and our prospects remaining in the organization than a team that had Upton.
by wolf9309 on Nov 22, 2010 10:05 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
Agree completely
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Nov 22, 2010 10:08 AM EST up reply actions
+1
Upton is the better player but the worse option given the acquisition cost.
Bullpen Banter
www.bullpenbanter.com
twitter: @alskor
"Upton provides a greater overall risk to the organization"
wolf, how so?
as far as voting straight up – it would seem upton has the up side.
but at what price becomes the determing factor.
we do have a lot of good players that can be considered expendable for an elite player.
my guess is that we only have 2 infielders and 2 pitchers that i would consider “untouchable”
I'm just thinking in total value lost/saved, not because he is a risky player
but because it would involve giving up several players- probably Bard and Ellsbury, who are both still cheap and productive and would need to be replaced via free agency with a more expensive alternative, plus a decent amount of very promising prospects who could well again force us to overpay in free agency because we won’t have them available to replace players leaving (any one of Kalish, Rizzo, Kelly, Pimental could provide a ton of value to the team in my eyes).
So it’s just risky because of his escalating cost vs. cost controlled players. Short term, he’d free us up more money than the altenative (which I was looking at as Werth), but long term seems to have a decent chance of being much more expensive for the organization just because of cost-controlled players lost.
Theo has stated he would rather go through the trade market
Signing over 30 guys to longer term deals vs. using your prospects to get younger and cheaper guys
well it's a sort of see-saw balance
where he also stressed that he doesn’t want to give up unreasonable amounts of prospects. I think he was referring to it making sense to get short-term rentals via trade rather than trading everything away for one guy- I’m sure he’d love to trade for Upton, but I’d be shocked if the cost wasn’t prohibitively high.
I really think the team that makes the most sense for him is the Royals- they can give away prospects because they have boatloads of great ones, and aren’t going to compete for a few years, so no big deal if they give up a couple of major league ready guys; hell, they could even flip Greinke and get Upton in a type of three team trade which would make them pretty incredibly well equipped for 3-4 years from now. Unfortunately for them, I think they’re one of the teams he has a no-trade clause to…
Actually, the preferred route is to build from within
Then trade market, then FA.
Fenway: "An alternate and better universe, disguised as a ballpark." --Thomas Boswell
No giving up Bard
In terms of off-season priorities, I don’t think there’s a worse move that the Sox could make than a multi-player trade that includes throwing in Bard just to get one guy in return.
If fixing the bullpen is the biggest strategic need for the Sox, giving up your strongest bullpen player leaves just that much more of a hole to fill.
I’d be willing to part with Ellsbury, Reddick, Nava, Bowden, and Iglesias, and maybe swap in Doubront for Bowden if absolutely necessary. But otherwise, No Dice(-K).
Fenway: "An alternate and better universe, disguised as a ballpark." --Thomas Boswell
Everyone is overvaluing Bard immensely.
No matter how good he is, he’s still a reliever. Upton is a young, cost-controlled above-average player with an enormous ceiling.
By saying that’s what you’re willing to give up, you’re basically saying “we’re not going to get close to getting Upton”. Which is fine, but just understand that trade would we ripping off the diamondbacks.
Well for "just a reliever" a lot of people sure complain about the bullpen
Make up your mind. Do we improve the bullpen or hurt it? The Red Sox were second in the AL in runs with Daniel Nava for half the season. Just add Werth and imagine how good it will be. And if you improve the bullpen and do not trade Bard, things look good to me.
Watch The Internet Sport Show
Help get Lacrosse on SBN. Join the lacrosse community at The Lacrosse Blog
by Marisa Ingemi on Nov 22, 2010 11:19 AM EST up reply actions
but without Werth
you can sign numerous high leverage relievers to shorter contracts and still have money left over
I don't think this offseason, you're going to get numerous high leverage relievers on short contracts
at least that’s not the way the market’s looking. Unless you offer them absolutely stupid money for a short deal.
We can trade Bard and STILL improve the bullpen.
It’s not like taking him out of the picture means he won’t be replaced. Because, he is ""just a reliever"", he’s a good one who happens to be in high demand and over valued. Trade him now, because being on a rookie contract means he won’t have this much value again. There are a lot of good relief options out there we can sign in his place or trade for from other teams. If Bard is coveted for a good young outfielder you have to do the trade, don’t like a reliever hold you back from getting the deal done. And as Bob says above, trading for Upton rather than signing Werth frees up some potential money that could go to improving the bullpen further.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
Yes exactly about the replacing relievers.
However the financial cost savings could be a very short term thing. If we’re trading multiple major league ready cost controlled players, he could actually end up costing us more pretty quickly if we had to go through free agency for extra relievers, an outfielder, etc. that we wouldn’t have to otherwise.
Ok, Pedroia is just a 2B
If we trade him for Upton we could replace him.
OF COURSE Bard could be replaced, just like anyone else.
Yet I don’t see everyone rushing to deal Pedroia for Upton, who in a year by now could be JUST an OF.
Watch The Internet Sport Show
Help get Lacrosse on SBN. Join the lacrosse community at The Lacrosse Blog
by Marisa Ingemi on Nov 22, 2010 5:51 PM EST up reply actions
In a healthy year you get 1000 innings of an above average defensive and offensive player at 2B, in a healthy year you get 70 innings of a good reliever. See the difference yet??
Relief pitching isn’t difficult to acquire since most are failed starters anyway, and there are plenty of those to go around. Finding a great 2B or OF though? Much harder to do.
Name all the people who could replace Bard in the bullpen adequately. Then go out and name all the people who can replace Pedrioa. In my mind, the list to replace Bard is A LOT bigger than the list of people who can replace Pedrioa.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
OK, who is available for a reasonable price that can dominate in the 8th inning?
Hmmm…. Taylor Buchholz! Andrew Miller!
Alright, you win. You are right. There are plenty of dominating pitchers as good as bard we can afford right now.
With acquiring Miller and Buchholz, they are on their way.
Watch The Internet Sport Show
Help get Lacrosse on SBN. Join the lacrosse community at The Lacrosse Blog
by Marisa Ingemi on Nov 22, 2010 6:36 PM EST up reply actions
This isn't directly related to you,
but I hate to break your bubble people. Bard was not the best reliever in baseball last year. I’m just picking only one stat here, but if you go by FIP, he’s about the 55 best pitcher, in terms of that stat. We can sign older relievers that are like Bard, but we can’t really sign an Upton. We’d have to make counter moves to have a successful Upton deal ( which isn’t really optimal). Even then, I don’t think Bard should inhibit a potential Upton deal. Although, at a certain point, it might be better to sign Werth or just add nobody.
embrace the martian
Twitter: @BoldandBrash
by BoldandBrash on Nov 22, 2010 7:01 PM EST up reply actions
Beat me to it!
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
Don't know if that was sarcasm or not but here it does...
But my list of people who, in a land without stigma, could replace Pedrioa with minimal dropoff:
Cano
Utley
Maybe Phillips
Bard:
Well let’s put it this way, back to WAR since I know you’re a fan, there were 22 relievers with a higher rating than Bard according to fangraphs, 10 of which weren’t closers if that was important to you. And as someone, maybe BandB or Bob, put me in my place earlier, Bard wasn’t really as good as his ERA suggested, his FIP ended up outside the top 50 for relievers and his xFIP just inside the top 50. Just perspective.
Yes the bullpen needs held and yes he is the best piece of our bullpen but to suggest he should be untouchable is silly. It’s like to some we can’t survive without Bard but I’d like to point out most of the recent decade where we thrived without him. He’s good, but as is the nature of relief pitching, very replaceable.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
Sarcasm
I don’t trade Bard. I’ve made my case.
Watch The Internet Sport Show
Help get Lacrosse on SBN. Join the lacrosse community at The Lacrosse Blog
by Marisa Ingemi on Nov 22, 2010 8:46 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
It's the difference between short and long term needs
The biggest obstacles we have for 2011 are: 3B, C, and bullpen. Trading away Bard doesn’t solve any of these, and makes things worse.
In the long run, the OF needs to be upgraded, since Drew and Cameron likely won’t be back after next season. The question then becomes: is Upton truly is worth exchanging all of those other pieces for? I have my strong doubts about trading away half the top prospects.
Fenway: "An alternate and better universe, disguised as a ballpark." --Thomas Boswell
Yes. You are right.
Those pieces could be used for something more important anyways. Besides, I see Kalish as the starting RF at somepoint.
Watch The Internet Sport Show
Help get Lacrosse on SBN. Join the lacrosse community at The Lacrosse Blog
by Marisa Ingemi on Nov 22, 2010 11:25 AM EST up reply actions
That's what Scott Boras says, too. ;)
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
I figured that was probably what you meant
but I cracked the joke anyhow. :P
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
Will you stop with "he still a reliever" meme..
Yes he is only a reliever..
However the Sox Bullpen has to be better than MLB average if it wants to compete in the AL East. One can’t just fill it with journeymen. Bard was kind of a bright spot for a dismal bullpen. He could be the closer for 2011, given the Sox have appeared to shop Papelbon around.
It will be great to get Scott Downs and others, but the bullpen has to be a big priority over the off season.
Cynically, one can bet that the bullpen won’t have to deal with the Rays anymore, because they aren’t going to be the same team in 2011, with lots of their bullpen broken up, even their starting pitching. So the competing teams could be the MFY and maybe the Jays.
It isn’t just runs scored that win games, and Upton should do very well at Fenway, but keeping the bleeding in check with some runs prevention from the Bullpen. So you think Scott Atchison will fill Bard shoes? as an 8th inning bridge?
but why do you assume
that if Bard was traded away he couldn’t be replaced with a good reliever? Certainly the bullpen needs to be improved this offseason, and Bard isn’t a piece that ANYONE wants to be rid of, but if it was the missing link to get a great offensive player, they could certainly find a replacement arm in free agency. Just saying Atchison would have to fill Bard’s shoes is assuming that the bullpen won’t be improved in any case.
The Sox have offense
The Sox may not have the Papi/Manny aka Ruth/Gehrig batting order that it once had, but the Sox still scored a bunch of runs in 2010. The Sox even had a higher OPS in 2010 than the MFY.. As much as Beltre bat will be sorely missed, Youklis and Pedroia are coming back.
Yes it will be great to have Upton’s bat, and his stats should be higher hitting in Fenway, but the Sox’s problem in 2010 was runs allowed not runs scored. Much like the Tampa Bay Series in August showed the strength and weakness of the Sox’s 2010 season, we scored some runs, Buchholz pitch an okay game but we still lost 2 out of three and the season ended in late August for the Sox.
Trades should be about benefitting both sides, not one team sacrificing a player, whether they are a reliever or the jury is still out on them. Upton is a very good player, but the need is to fix the serious problems, instead of padding over positions that we already have the slots filled in.
I think left handed relief help is more of a priority than Upton, which shows how serious the bullpen situation is right now.
As much as I have concerns about Upton’s shoulder, it would be great to get him, but the price is way too high, besides the risk.
I'm not taking issue at all with your argument that Upton will cost too much
I think you have some very valid points there.
Just taking issue with the idea that because we need bullpen help, Bard should be untouchable. If he could bring in the right player, he could be replaced adequately through free agency. There just needs to be a good plan to replace any players that are lost in trade.
I do think that Upton would financially and talent-wise cost too much for the organziation.
I would trade Bard for infield defense
and/or a very good catcher. I wouldn’t sacrifice him for a bat. Upton wouldn’t be playing Center Field like his brother, probably LF until Drew’s contract is done..
Bard may have a complete MDC meltdown in 2011, I don’t know. He is someone I wouldn’t give up lightly in order to make a trade.
Any trade has to be risk assessed for both sides. Most of the time, one trades players that have too many for a position, like Kelly Shoppach as part of the Coco Crisp Trade in 2005/2006, not trade players that are pretty important, and tough to replace.
Pen:
but why do you assume
that if Bard was traded away he couldn’t be replaced with a good reliever?
Because of the very fact that relievers are usually such a crap shoot. I wouldn’t feel the least bit comfortable trading away the one reliable piece in our bullpen. We’d, essentially, have to build the whole @#$%ing thing from scratch. God only knows who you could get and how they would then end up performing.
I sure as hell don’t want to trade away the one piece (and only) I feel comfortable with.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
Ordinarily I'd see your point
but I just don’t feel the same way with Soriano, Putz, and Downs on the market (plus more with good track records)
Right,
if none of Soriano, Putz and Downs will be any good, then what makes you think Bard will be any good next year?
embrace the martian
Twitter: @BoldandBrash
by BoldandBrash on Nov 22, 2010 7:03 PM EST up reply actions
Problem being
We aren’t the only team looking for bullpen arms. So, yeah, maybe we get one or two of them (and potentially overpaying for them)…but now we’re down a reliable arm in losing Bard.
I’d much rather get one or two of those guys and add them to Bard, so I don’t throw a beer bottle at the wall every time Tito points at the bullpen.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
yeah there's a give and take
but if we’re talking about Upton for example, how different is the price of an extra one of those relievers (say we overpay by a bunch and give them $8 million/year) + Upton’s $4.25 million he’s making in 2011 compared to the alternatives (is it Bards league minimum + $16 million for Werth? If that’s it, it leaves us about an extra $4 million in addition which could be allocated to improving the pen or another weak spot)
Obviously it’s more complicated than that over the course of the contract, as what we need to bring in to replace players changes, but just something to think about. In that particular scenario, I think the other players involved would probably outweigh the value that Upton would bring unless we got a better deal than I think we would. But my main point is, really, Bard is a good reliever, but a good reliever is more replaceable for cheaper in general than an excellent position player.
So while I certainly will never advocate trading Bard just for the sake of trading him, I’d be more than happy to include him in a trade for the right player. Even when we need to spend to improve the pen.
I apologize in advance if that comment was an unintelligible stream of consciousness
sometimes I just don’t wanna go back and read and make sure it makes sense.
Upton's contract is back loaded...
We aren’t taking just taking Upton, but his contract as well. Which pays $14 million each year for the last two years. If Upton’s shoulder is acting up, or he need surgery to repair his torn labrum, the Sox are pretty much stuck with him, or have to eat a considerable amount of his contract.
If economics is a factor, then Bard and Ells are more practical because they are still under team control, they already have positions. If we trade for Upton, we are relying on Cameron, who had a pretty serious ailment in 2010, even though he is a top notch defender. We also have to fill in the gap for Bard.
If the Bullpen is a priority, then it is better to add arms with Bard than to subtract Bard and think we can get decent bullpen staff off the market. That is also a risk/factor in this type of mega deal.
People throw out the names Soriano or Putz. Both are closers, and are going to cost much more than middle relief, especially another Boras client like Soriano.
by superferret on Nov 22, 2010 11:02 PM EST up reply actions
I'm not saying that Bard is 100% untouchable
But I am saying if we send him away, it better be for one hell of a player that we are in strong need for. Joe Mauer or something. Evan Longoria.
I think it is foolhardy to think that bullpen arms are a a dime a dozen when we tried the hit-n-stick method last year and it blew up in our face.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
I agree
And maybe add Kelly to that mix. I would give up him and Ellsbury + Dpubront for Upton.
However, why not get Werth when it’s only money?
Watch The Internet Sport Show
Help get Lacrosse on SBN. Join the lacrosse community at The Lacrosse Blog
by Marisa Ingemi on Nov 22, 2010 11:18 AM EST up reply actions
It's the length of the contract that's worrisome.
I don’t think anybody around these parts wants to give Werth a Teixeira-like contract, but there’s at least one owner/GM tandem who might try.
Fenway: "An alternate and better universe, disguised as a ballpark." --Thomas Boswell
I understand the years
But the Red Sox have to take a risk right now. Werth is a right handed hitting outfielder. The Red Sox need that. Go for it. They were not afraid of years with Beckett or Lackey. Or Renteria or Lugo.
Why be afraid of the one that will work?
Watch The Internet Sport Show
Help get Lacrosse on SBN. Join the lacrosse community at The Lacrosse Blog
by Marisa Ingemi on Nov 22, 2010 11:24 AM EST up reply actions
how do you know he's the one that will work?
And right now, Werth is looking for a $100m+ contract, which will most certainly have to come down. The question is, does someone else bite before it comes down far enough to be reasonable? He’s not worth giving 6 years to in any situation, no matter what.
Those people you listed there are exactly why they should be concerned about giving up a lot of years.
I think that we are in a decent position right now
in that we don’t need and OF. So if someone else grabs Werth before us…big deal. Frankly, I’m okay with running out a healthy outfield of Drew/Ells/Cam. If we happen to get Werth, and have Cam as our backup OF…fine. If not, also fine.
We need a catcher. We need (@#$%ING NEED) bullpen arms. We need to shore up 3B. Werth/Upton is a luxury right now.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
But it does become a problem after 2011
when we only have one outfielder who will definitely be on our roster.
I don’t think getting or not getting Werth is really going to affect the other positions greatly. I think they have certain value that they place on free agents, and they aren’t going to give Martinez more years than they think he can hold up, regardless of whether or not they sign Werth. Obviously we need bullpen arms and Theo has made it very clear that he is aware there will be riots if he doesn’t go out and get a proven reliever somewhere.
Not saying there isn’t a budget or anything, but there is a good amount of free money available to get up to last year’s budget (and Werner has said he expects the payroll to be as high as last year “if not higher”; I’m guessing that at least one of Beltre or Martinez is going to price themselves out of what the Red Sox view as reasonable and won’t be back. There is, using approximate arbitration guesses, about $40 million less on the payroll than there was in 2010, so there is money to go around.
After 2011, yes...it could be an area of concern
But it is not an immediate area of concern. If we can get Werth/Upton/Crawford at a price that is suitable, I say that’s great. But it is not what we need here and now, and as such not something we should allow to detract our focus.
There are internal possibilities to fill that OF role in 2011, and there is even a possibility that Drew would sign a short-term deal for the Sox. Plus, God knows who else through trade/free agency/whatever.
I would like to see us work on what we need instead of doing the “big splash” thing.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
but what I'm saying is the two are not necessarily mutually exclusive.
Certainly the priorities right now are Martinez and Beltre. If, however, either is priced out of what the front office considers reasonable, then we have to re-evaluate. If Beltre, for example, is unsignable, the 2011 team is improved more by allocating money to Werth and playing Lowrie at third than it is by signing the next best third baseman (maybe that’s Tejada?) and leaving the outfield the same. In fact, just having Lowrie and Scutaro might be an improvement over Lowrie and the next best third baseman…
Similar situation with catching. Martinez is best. Salty alone sucks. I think any viable alternative is going to have to come through trade, not free agency, if they can’t resign VMart, because the FA catchers are awful. No real potential guys that I see (if they decide that Martinez will get an unreasonable length contract) will cost a prohibitive amount of dollars, so I don’t see any reason not to go after one of the big outfielders.
I don’t think the focus is such a big deal. I think the Front Office has to be constantly focused on a ton of different options and possibilities for each position on the field.
I understand what you're saying.
I guess my only point is that I’m content with our current OF. If we can get Werth, then great. I’d really like to see him in a Sox uniform.
But, if we come out of the Hot Stove season with some sorta jimmy-rigged 3B/Catcher situation, I’ll be pissed.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
I am kind of concern about..
Upton’s shoulder that sidelined him for most of September, besides I am questioning Arizona’s intention in all this.
There are two things that the Sox have a surplus or at par for the moment, starting pitching and outfielders. The two things the Sox need and should be top priority during the off season, a catcher and new arms in the bullpen.
+12334
Watch The Internet Sport Show
Help get Lacrosse on SBN. Join the lacrosse community at The Lacrosse Blog
by Marisa Ingemi on Nov 22, 2010 11:20 AM EST up reply actions
You're assuming a Youk/Pedey/Scoot/Lowrie IF, then?
Fenway: "An alternate and better universe, disguised as a ballpark." --Thomas Boswell
There may be other options
Though I don’t hate Lowrie as my 3B
Watch The Internet Sport Show
Help get Lacrosse on SBN. Join the lacrosse community at The Lacrosse Blog
by Marisa Ingemi on Nov 22, 2010 11:24 AM EST up reply actions
As long as the wrist holds up
Troy Smith is our future
Trade Danny Granger
by return2greatness on Nov 22, 2010 1:42 PM EST up reply actions
there's just no reason to believe it won't
it was one injury, handled poorly. It’s had loads of time to recover and is at full health.
For the infield..
I am guessing the Sox Front Office will get a year rental for so-so 1b like Lyle Overbay and move Youklis to third, until 2012 they can go after Gonzalez. It appears Scutero is being used as trade bait and Lowrie will be SS for 2011.
It would be great to have Beltre back, but it looks like he wants to stay on the West Coast. I think the Oakland offer was just a delusion of Boras, because no one else has reported on it, or the SF Bay papers aren’t reporting the Athletics’ intentions on Beltre.
I don’t know why Beltre wants to play in a pitcher’s park with lots of foul territory like the Oakland Coliseum, he will just have the same numbers as he did in Seattle.
On Upton, he is a very good player. However, trades should be about benefitting both sides, not about one side sacrificing in order to get a good player. There is one team that has a worst bullpen than the Sox, and it is the Diamondbacks. There is no point in having a good bat if losing a semi decent reliever is going to cost as many runs or more than Upton can produce.
Upton’s torn labrum in his shoulder, even though Arizona and others have said it is no big deal, is the reason why he was on the DL for most of September, I think there is a big concern about it.
Overbay? God no
I will admit Pena is not a good idea anymore.
I keep having this fantasy of Dunn but it will never happen for the years.
Watch The Internet Sport Show
Help get Lacrosse on SBN. Join the lacrosse community at The Lacrosse Blog
by Marisa Ingemi on Nov 22, 2010 3:12 PM EST up reply actions
We only sign Dunn if he agrees to DH after Papi is gone
And even then a year of Dunn in the field scared the bejesus out of me. Dunn doesn’t seem to want to be DH.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
I think
that the Diamondbacks would needs much more than Ells and Bard in a trade. Upton has face of the franchise value and I think that is going to be much more important to the club over the next few years. I don’t see how they trade him.
Which is why the Diamondbacks should keep Upton...
He is a player you build a team around. His contract is back ended, it isn’t bad, but it is not the most team friendly contract
Getting four or five prospects seems to be a short term fix for the Diamondbacks, they should keep Upton, and fix their pitching staff with many minor trades, a prospect here and a draft pick there. They are going to be a punching bag for the Giants, Padres, and Rockies for 2011, so I don’t see them turning around in one season, even if they get 4 good players in return for Upton.
ouch
those K rates are disturbing for both guys, especially in the 5 slot…
Never really understand the huge problem with K's
especially when coming from guys who hit a decent amount of line drives (so high career BABIP) and who get on base well. To me, a K is about equal to any other out- sure it isn’t a “productive out” which moves runners along, but I think apart from the run-scoring sac fly, those are pretty overrated, and it also isn’t a double play.
Ellsbury, Bard, and a middling prospect like Weiland would be a great deal
As good as Bard is, there are countless other RPs who have the change to be as effective as he does over a one year period, Upton, on the other hand, is a franchise cornerstone who not even 10 players in the majors could replace over the next 5-7 years.
Though to be fair
Whenever a big deal gets done in baseball I always feel that the haul is underwhelming. Like the team trading the big player never really got full value for him. Maybe that’s because most of the big trades in baseball occur with the Pirates who I feel get hosed repeatedly in trades.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
or minor leaguers are over valued
this may be a result of a weak minor league measuring system
too much reliance on opinions
I picked Werth
Would rather have Upton, But not at the cost of the players it will take. If theres a big trade, I want Gonzalez
In terms of trading Bard,
Let’s remember that 2012 has some very good FA relievers as well.
embrace the martian
Twitter: @BoldandBrash
I've gotta say Upton
I like Bard, but he’s a sell high guy, and given the unpredictability of bullpen arms – see Joba, Zumaya, and scads of other flame throwing young guys who have flamed out – I think you have to take the chance on a potential superstar like Upton.
Manny ain't the only bad man.
Werth. Here's why...
1) Werth’s next 4 years are likely to be better than Upton’s next 4 years. Already excellent 23 year-olds don’t improve as much as excellent-potential 23-year-olds. Upton’s dip this past year is indicative of some plateauing.
2a) After that, you’re looking at the value of having 4-5 years of Werth vs. having 8-10 years of Upton. Would Upton’s years 6-10 be better than what we could sign on the free agent market then? We found a Jason Werth this year. Why wouldn’t we be able to find another then?
2b) Who’s to say we’ll even need to look at the FA market in 6 years for the next Werth? We may already have him on our roster by then. We may even have him on out roster now (Kalish?)
3) Also, getting Upton could mean we no longer having the prospects necessary for an AGonz-type blockbuster trade at mid-summer. Jared said he thought we could do both, but I’m not so sure about that.
Sign Werth and only trade for Upton if it involves players we aren’t going to hurt too much to lose (Ells, Doubront, Dice-K + money, etc. – OK; but NOT Lowrie if we trade Scutaro or don’t re-sign Beltre).
Rebuttal
1. A typical 23 year old major leaguer is on the upswing. A typical 31 y.o. guy will decline. And I don’t think Upton’s regression is a sign of a plateau – rather he played through shoulder soreness in August, which killed his rate stats, and sat out September.
2a. Upton is only signed through 2015. If he turns into the player many (most?) people think he will, then we’ll extend him.
2b. Given the choice of Werth and what we’ve got, I’ll take what we’ve got. Am I the only one who finds the prospect of a 35-36 y.o. Werth earning $15-18 million frightening? He’s had three good seasons, there’s not much reason to think he’ll keep this up for the next five years. Matt Stairs, anyone?
3. Trading for Upton is a AGonz-type blockbuster, only we’d be getting Upton on the upswing of his career and won’t have to give up all the prospects and then immediately invest another $130 million right off the bat.
Manny ain't the only bad man.
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
In Association With
Big League Stew - MLB - Yahoo! Sports
- Pitcher Clayton Richard gets key pinch single in 13th after coming in 0 for 16
- Livan Hernandez welcomes ballboy to the bigs with shower of sunflower seeds (VIDEO)
- Man beaten by four others in Dodger Stadium parking lot
- Lance Berkman’s knee injury creates a lot of questions for Cards but also his career
- Next generation: Scott Van Slyke, son of Andy Van Slyke, hits first career homer
