What could we expect from Jed Lowrie in 2011?
by radiohix on Nov 12, 2010 12:25 AM EST
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In a season marked by injuries and bullpen meltdowns, Jed Lowrie's play in the 2nd half has been one of the very few bright spots.
Since being activated from the 60 days DL, the Red Sox 1st round pick (45th overall) in the 2005 draft has posted a gaudy slush line of .287/.381/.526 over 197 PAs good for a weighted On Base Average (wOBA) of .393 while playing some solid infield defense leading to an overall production of 1.8 Wins Above Replacement (WAR) according to FanGraphs and 2 WAR according to Baseball-Reference. Clearly, he's been an asset for this team and considering his age/cost/versatility, he could offer a lot of solutions going into the next season and be a "safety net" if the negotiations with Adrian Beltre come non-conclusive. However, there's few questions that need to be asked:
- How healthy is Lowrie's wrist?
- What is Lowrie's true talent level?
We'll try to answer those questions after the jump.
Health:
A lot of Jed Lowrie's future value is tied to the health and strength of his left wrist: He's a switch hitter who'll have to swing from the left side of the plate most of the time and being able to drive the ball with authority against right handed pitching make him an above average hitter instead of a platoon player. Let's take a look at his injuries history:
- In May 2008 while playing at Triple A Pawtucket, he suffered a sprain and a small non-displaced fracture in his left wrist while keep playing: ailments that worsened as the season wore on. The injuries gave Lowrie occasional pain and affected his grip strength, particularly late in the season: Righthanded, he hit .338 with a .525 slugging percentage (SLG%). Lefthanded, he hit .222 with a .334 SLG%. Lowrie finished the season in an 8-for-51 (.157) slump, but he played 52 of the Red Sox' 53 games in August and September despite the worsening symptoms.
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On October 21st 2008, an MRI revealed those injuries. After discussing with the medical staff, the team and the player chose to avoid surgery. The MRI showed that the wrist has begun to heal and should be back to full strength with three weeks of rest.
"For me it was just about getting my wrist healthy," he said. "Obviously that was the No. 1 priority and I took about a month off to just let it heal. We decided not to do surgery just because there wasn't enough time. I probably wouldn't have been ready for spring training if I had the surgery. It was just a matter of giving it some rest and trying to strengthen it back up.
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On February 12th 2009, He arrived at the Sox' Player Development Complex for ST. He said to be in good shape and has been hitting and throwing in Tampa for the last month. He ended the spring as Boston's best hitter, finishing at .343/.400/.657 with three homers.
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He started the first 5 games of the season going 1-18 with 8 Ks and on April 13th, was placed on the 15-day disabled list with a left wrist sprain.
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On April 21st, 2009 Lowrie underwent what was described a successful surgery on his left wrist and was expected to be able to begin swinging a bat in six weeks with an eye toward returning to action in June or possibly July.
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On June 19th, 2009: Started his rehab stint in Pawtucket.
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On July 18th, 2009: Recalled to the majors, he hit a home run in his return to action against the Blue Jays.
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On August 6th, 2009: Jed Lowrie irritated his left forearm on a check swing and had to be pulled from the game. 2 days later, he was put on the 15 days DL.
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After consulting with Dr. Donald Sheridan (the specialist who performed the surgery on his left wrist) on August 11th, the diagnosis was that he had "some nerve irritation... which created the tingling," manager Terry Francona said."They're giving him some oral meds that they think will calm it down, and then they'll work on his strength.
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On September 10th, he was activated again from the 15 days DL with the idea of not playing him a lot: 12 plate appearances during September.
- After game 3 of the ALDS, Theo Epstein declared:
This is a young player we really believe in who has been hurt as a big league player. We’ve not seen the type of player he can be yet at the big league level because he’s been playing hurt the entire time. At some point, the player has to get healthy to be able to show what he can do and to be able to help the organization. "I don’t think we can hand a job to him because he hasn’t proved his health yet at this point
and the team went to the FA market and signed Marco Scutaro.
- After checking again with Dr Sheridan on September 14th, Lowrie wrote in an e-mail to weei that the prognosis was good and with rest, strength and conditioning it should be 100 percent. He went to Canada and spent the winter doing therapy and learning new taping techniques.
- 2010 Spring Training: :(
- July 5th, 2010: First rehab assignment with Lowell and the rest was: :)
"Towards the end of the year it really didn't matter what I did," he said. "I just kind of hit that wall. The strength went down, even with the same routine [of taping it] that I had been doing all year." ProJo Feb 14, 2009
You can notice the decrease of hits to RF (I've done the counting and there was 14 hits to LF and Center versus 12 hits to RF) but also some limited HR power. Now here's Jed spray charts for the past season:
He seemed to be able to drive the ball again to RF (most of his hits are in RF) with more authority than ever before (His Isolated Power to RF as a LHH was .415 this year versus .189 in 08) which could be explained by a finally healthy wrist combined with physical maturity.
“I’m really happy with the way I played this year and the way that my body responded and get ready for next year and be ready to go’’ Red Sox Note Book: Lowrie looking ahead
On a personal note: I start really worrying about JL career after that tweet from Amalie Benjamin
Lowrie irritated his left forearm on a swing. Yeah, I don't think I've heard that one before. #redsox
It was during a Series versus the MFY in the stadium. Almost a year after that incident/tweet, at the same place, Andy Pettitte on the mound, 2 on, 1 out, First pitch, 89 mph Cutter, on the outside part of the plate: Boom! Gone! Yeah, I know, he was swinging RH but hitting an opposite field dinger show me that those forearms are back to being strong and that left wrist is finally doing fine: The baseball gods like to screw with me!
True talent level:
The problem when evaluating Lowrie's true talent level is that we're dealing with a small sample size of plate appearances of a healthy Jed. I chose to go with this year production simply because this is the period where he was fully healthy:
| PA |
BB% |
K% |
BABIP |
ISO |
FB% |
HR/FB |
| 197 |
12.7% |
14.6% |
.292 |
.240 |
54.1% |
11.4% |
Looking at the peripherals above, none of them looks unsustainable: Some of us could be skeptical toward the power numbers mainly the result of the Home Run per Fly Ball rate (HR/FB) a rate that changes from a hitter to another and because of the size of the sample (~200 PAs) that we're dealing with here is too small (according to Pizza Cutter work) we can only evaluate it from a scouting view and he really looked good at the plate. Keep in mind that 11.4% is not very high, Kelly Johnson (ARZ 2nd baseman) for example, has a career 10.9% HR/FB, and that in his last full season in the Minors, Lowrie has slugged .503 between AA and AAA as a 23 years old prospect with 47 doubles.
As for the rest of the peripherals, Here's what those 200 PAs could tell us about a healthy Lowrie talent level.
- 50 PA: Swing%
- 100 PA: Contact Rate
- 150 PA: Strikeout Rate, Line Drive Rate, Pitches/PA
- 200 PA: Walk Rate, Ground Ball Rate, GB/FB
All those core rates (beside the GB%) look very good in Jed's case. However, some writers have been skeptical about his projected performance for next season: Some of them based on statistical analysis alone and some others based on there-will-be-regression (flawed) logic. Both of this projections don't take into account that Jed Lowrie will show up next spring training with a left wrist at full strength (2 years removed from the surgery) and a body fully recovered from mono. He'll be also entering his prime.
I don't expect him to put a .393 wOBA again, but I see him playing better defense with a .370 wOBA.
Bill James Projections for 2011 are: 270/.361/.467. I'll take it!
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On Jed Lowrie and power.
If I had asked many of you to predict how many homers Jed Lowrie would end the season with just before he was called up, I’m guessing there would be a lot of people guessing under five. Nine in only 55 games coming back from mono? That’s just crazy talk!
Except that he did hit nine, and more importantly, he hit them the right way. There are a lot of players who have those years where the fly balls travel just a few feet further at the right time. Everyone gets excited, pencils the guy in for about the same number next season, and then watches about half of those homers from last year fall harmlessly into an outfielders glove on the warning track.
But Jed Lowrie’s homers weren’t just about those few feet. HitTracker is a website which follows each and every home run hit in the majors, takes a lot of factors into consideration, and then gives us a little information. Most important to our discussion are the categories of "no doubt", "plenty", and "just enough"—how close any given homer was to being not a homer.
Looking back at certain one-year wonder seasons, we see a telltale sign. Bill Hall’s 35-bomb year in 2006? 16 of them are labeled as just enough, with one even being lucky—basically, if the wind had been blowing slightly in, that ball doesn’t go out. Ryan Ludwick’s 2008? Eleven had just enough, while three were lucky.
Of Jed Lowrie’s nine homers, only one had just enough—his 359-foot shot in cavernous Safeco Field.
It’s not like Jed has never shown power before, either. Sure, his .240 ISO (slugging percentage – batting average) is a little gaudy, but he was starting to show stuff like that in 2008 before his wrist injury, managing a .188 ISO from the right (uninjured) side of the plate despite being a rookie. He had put up a .205 ISO just the year before in the minors between Portland and Pawtucket, too.
While Lowrie, at six-foot-nothing and 180 pounds isn’t exactly the guy you have in mind when you talk about big sluggers, he’s definitely got some legitimate pop in his bat.
Teach me to bring on new writers! They scoop me!
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Heh
You know what? I was planing to put those hitTracker numbers and even mentioning the HR against Luke French (A hanging inside Change up) as being “just enough” due to Safeco dimensions but I thought that the post was long enough already!!! Crazy.
Twitter | "Almost every organization has a guy like Papelbon or Lester" - Dave Cameron 12/29/2005
Mr. Hix, it is a pleasure to read your post.
What a huge addition to the OTM staff. Great recruiting Ben.
Also a reminder that Jed Lowrie (2005 draft, 1st round sandwich at #45 overall) was the compensation pick that the Sox received for losing Orlando Cabrera to free agency.
And if you ever shake Lowrie’s hand, remember to look at how long his fingers are for a guy his size. I would think it helps him in handling ground balls.
Now I hope that Lowrie can get at least 400 AB or more somehow, someway.
Thanks for those kind words went9
and yes, those fingers are HUGE!
Twitter | "Almost every organization has a guy like Papelbon or Lester" - Dave Cameron 12/29/2005
Great Post and very informative and gets me thinking about the future and Beltre
First Ben and now you – every time I read about Lowrie I keep thinking we have not even seen his potential upside. Here is what I want to know and I accept it is a risk:
Do you think the Sox may let Beltre walk because they think Lowrie could play 3rd next season…then, (and I cannot believe I am saying this) they go after A-Gon hard in FA with the idea of Youk/A-Gon at 1b/dh and kinda rotating while Lowrie stays at 3b and some hot shot minor league SS prospect is ready to go?
With that said, I am a huge bring Beltre back (realizing the whole contract year argument) but, from what I saw he is a beast and plays hurt and loves to compete….I am always willing to reconsider my assumptions – I have changed my mind on V-Mart and I am willing to rethink this Beltre thing altogether too
"Man that ball got outta here in a hurry, you know anything that travels that far oughta have a damn stewardess on it, don't you think?" - Crash Davis
I think Lowrie at 3B is the Sox's plan of last resort
There’s no doubt he can play the position—they trusted him enough to move him to 3B in the middle of games.
The question is merely the potency of his bat. If he could actually sustain a .900 OPS—which, honestly, even I find hard to swallow—then he can hit well enough to be a well-above-average 3B. If he hits .825-.850, then he’s a solid 3B that won’t embarrass the Sox, but won’t be in the upper echelons of productivity at the position.
At SS, however, there’s no question that his bat would be All-Star quality. If he only hit his minor league line, he’d still be in the top five or so among all MLB SS’s.
Fenway: "An alternate and better universe, disguised as a ballpark." --Thomas Boswell
I agree with this.
He’s best at short, but he takes some of the pressure off needing a 3B.
So…if they get Beltre and let VMart walk…could Scutaro be dangled as trade bait somewhere? Is there any place where there is a need for short that has a catcher we’d want?
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
Alex, I'll take potential Scutaro destinations for $200
What are the O’s, Astros, Giants and Cards?
I say that with two disclaimers. First, the listed teams could have a need to upgrade at SS but may not neccessarily have a desire to acquire Scutaro. Second, even if they did, I don’t see any that could send a catcher back. However, I don’t see that as a big deal as players in such a deal could be spun to a third team or freeing up his salary could allow you meet other needs, including catcher (ex: Buck).
Thinking completely (and perhaps unrealistically) outside of the box, I would offer a Ellsbury/Scutaro for Rasmus type deal to St. Louis. Living in St. Louis, I can tell you there is a lot of speculation that LaRussa and Rasmus can’t co-exist and one will be gone. With LaRussa back, the Cards may be open to dealing Rasmus if they got a reasonable offer. They could use Scutaro anywhere in the infield and Ellsbury at the top of their order. The move frees up salary for the Sox, using Rasmus further down in the order and pursue Crawford as a table setter.
We could also keep Scutaro as a super-utility IF
Which is a role that he has done well with in the past.
As far as sending Ells/Scut for Rasmus, it doesn’t seem too far-fetched. I’d imagine we’d have to pay for some of Scutaro’s contract though.
eh....
Why not just keep Ellsbury at that point? I do not get the Ellsbury hate, the guy has hit .300.
I like Rasmus, but giving up Scutaro and Ells is too much. I’d keep Scutaro as well. I like Lowrie as the starter, but can he stay healthy? Might as well keep Scutaro for insurance.
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by Marisa Ingemi on Nov 12, 2010 11:08 AM EST up reply actions
Not a Ellsbury hater
More of a Rasmus fan and how it could be a mutual fit for both teams. Ellsbury provides the leadoff hitter that the Cards need while Rasmus gives the Sox more punch if you have Crawford at the top of the lineup. The Sox don’t need to trade Ellsbury or Scutaro and the Cards don’t need to trade Rasmus but it could be a mutually beneficial deal.
IF (big if) Lowrie and Navarro are the answer, would you rather have Ellsbury and Scutaro or Rasmus and a $5M replacement (ex: Putz)?
The thing on Rasmus
I like him…. But still not completely sold. I think Ellsbury is a valuable element to the Red Sox. Rasmus is good, but I think right now Ellsbury benifits them more.
This is, of course, if they go out and get Jayson Werth like they should. And let’s say they make this trade; Who is the leadoff hitter? Drew? Pedroia? Rasmus? Does not make the most sense for Boston.
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by Marisa Ingemi on Nov 12, 2010 11:22 AM EST up reply actions
The problem with your example...
and with mg’s is that they both have a lot of “if we sign player X” clauses. All of this is fun to postulate on, but it’s so hard to form logical opinions when both situations depend on us signing Crawford or Werth and/or Beltre.
In a way, I guess it’s a good thing that there are so many work-able scenarios out there. The 2011 squad could go a lot of ways. However, I think no matter who we do or don’t bring in this off-season, Lowrie should be given every chance to start at either 3B or SS. We need to see what we have in him.
True, but...
you don’t have to make the trade before you sign those free agents. You sign Crawford and Beltre, you could deal Ellsbury and Scutaro. If you don’t, you keep each, potentially playing Lowrie at 3B.
I think that's what I was saying
That the “decision” of what to do with Scutaro/Ellsbury/Lowrie depends completely on who we sign, and that it really could go in any number of different directions. But count me as one of the people who feels that Lowrie should get a shot one way or another.
I think you are in the minority about Ellsbury vs. Rasmus
He’s good for a HR every 20 AB’s and is a year further away from arbitration and free agency.
You are correct that any Ellsbury deal is contingent upon finding a lead off replacement. Crawford makes the most sense (although he’s never lead off) while Werth wouldn’t work. Assuming he could lead off, you would be looking at a lineup of something like: Crawford, Pedroia, Ortiz, Youkilis, Rasmus, Beltre, Drew, Lowrie, Buck.
I like how you included “I don’t get the Ellsbury hate” and “can Lowrie stay healthy?” in the same post. You fight one thing and perpetuate another.
Some people don’t like Ellsbury because despite hitting .300, he doesn’t walk enough or take enough pitches, two cornerstones of a Theo Epstein offense and the nature of being a leadoff hitter, and he doesn’t get the best reads out in the fields. How often should a player who steals 50-70 bases a year, with that speed, have to dive to catch a ball? IMO, Ellsbury should rarely ever be featured in a web gem, he shouldn’t have to, he should be standing their patiently waiting for the ball to land. That is why I think Ellsbury is overrated, however the way he handled the injury I think quickly plummeted him back down the charts to about where he should be.
As for Lowrie health isn’t an issue, getting mono this year wasn’t an issue of his ability to stay healthy, it was a matter of luck, he got some bad luck and got mono and then got fatigued, it could happen to anyone. The wrist injury was more poor mangement of the Sox, he got hurt and they had him play through it and it caused more damage that held him back. I think this year proved more than enough that he is back, he wasn’t a “qualifying” shortstop, but if he was, his OPS and wOBA would have been second in the league I believe.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
This is about as well put as I've ever heard:
How often should a player who steals 50-70 bases a year, with that speed, have to dive to catch a ball?
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
That is actually a great point.
On Rouge commenting about Ells/ Lowrie, Lowrie has been hurt multiple times. Ells was once.
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by Marisa Ingemi on Nov 12, 2010 5:29 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Lowrie has been hurt one time. Ells has been hurt one time.
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by Ben Buchanan on Nov 12, 2010 6:25 PM EST up reply actions
My point is that it was one injury that wasn’t handled well and was compounded on and as he showed has healed perfectly. I’m discounting mono, that can happen to anyone at anytime and isn’t a part of his injury history. It comes down to this, Lowrie hasn’t been in the majors long enough to establish himself as an injury risk. Unlike say Nick Johnson who seemingly gets hurt every year. He had a bump in the road followed by the kissing disease and now he’s here to game, we shouldn’t be making decisions base on “well he might get hurt” because he isn’t anymore likely to get hurt than anyone else in baseball.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
Second in the majors, actually.
First in the league by a long, long, long, long, long, long, long shot.
Alexei Ramirez won the SS. And it was the right choice
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by Ben Buchanan on Nov 12, 2010 4:02 PM EST up reply actions
Utility Infielder
You don’t neccessarily have to trade Scutaro. However, if it hinges on two, potentially three players:
Lowrie and your faith in the ’11 version being closer to the ’10 model than ’09.
Navarro and his ability to serve as a servicable utility infielder.
Iglesias and his ability to step in if Lowrie is injured or struggles.
Regarding Scutaro’s contract, I don’t think the Sox would neccessarily need to throw in any cash. He’s making $5M in ’11 with a $6M team, $3M player and a $1.5 buyout for ’12. All seem pretty reasonable to me unless you are doing some serious penny pinching.
+1
His true value is at SS. A bit off topic but I would like to see another 3B option with him getting a legit shot at SS. If he captures the job and Navarro serves as servicable utility infielder, Scutaro could be dealt if another team has a pressing need.
The most interesting hit for me
Was actually an opposite-field double LD he hit in Seattle (video).
It’s a down-and-away fastball over the far corner of the plate that he muscles into left field. It’s a hard job for anyone to do something productive with it, let alone anyone who has a wrist injury. It also shows his good eye and quality swings, which don’t put a lot of balls on the ground.
But ultimately, the truth is we don’t know exactly who is the “real” Jed. . . . (Dun dun duuuunnnnn!)
Fenway: "An alternate and better universe, disguised as a ballpark." --Thomas Boswell
I loved this p[iece
and I think it shows that that Lowrie can be the shortstop of the future. His glove is hard to quantify with the limited data we have, but it is reasonable to think he could be average or better. His hitting would be a huge asset if he sticks at short with walk and strikeout rates like the ones he has shown recently. I think it very reasonable to expect a HR/FB rate around 10-11% going forward.
by Boston's10thMan on Nov 12, 2010 9:16 AM EST reply actions
League average 3b, 450-500 ABs
and Lowrie would be my homeboy for life. I don’t need a .550 SLG or .390 OBP, just a perfectly solid .270/.340/.450.
Really?
You say Scutaro sucks, but he hit:
.275 .333 .388
…with a wonky shoulder.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
Just seems like a big jump
from disastrous signing (of $6M/yr) to “homeboy for life”.
Not a whole lotta gray area for you, hey?
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
Scutaro is a nothing
A career backup who can’t hit, fields decently, but generally won’t do anything for you. If you have a player who won’t do anything really great, at least have him be young and cheap with the potential to do better.
Scutaro cannot do anything, and will never match 2009. Paying him $6m is idiotic.
Not shockingly
I don’t tend to agree with any of that.
He played most of his career in backup/platoon roles, and when given an every day role in ’09, thrived in it. And then in 2010 played quite decently through an injury.
I’m big on Lowrie and watching him for a full season is one of the things I’m looking forward to most for next season, but your crappin’ on Scoots doesn’t pass Bloggy’s Logic Test.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
You probably hate every shortstop not named Ramirez or Tulowitzki, then
ESPN lists about 70 players as having been shortstops in 2010, and 22 “Qualified” shortstops. He ranked 17th among all shortstops in OPS, and 9th among qualifieds. Granted a .721 OPS is not celebration-worthy, but he’s not exactly an offensive black hole at SS relative to his peers.
Fenway: "An alternate and better universe, disguised as a ballpark." --Thomas Boswell
I understand that SS sucks
I just don’t get paying a good chunk of money for a known mediocrity with zero upside. Scutaro does nothing positive for you, he just mitigates the negatives. I don’t cheer or like players being paid $6m to just not-suck, and don’t get why that makes him liked by anyone.
But don’t forget, he was playing hurt, he was actually hitting quite well for us before the shoulder injury. Up through June his OBP was up in the .350s, after he got hurt it fell close to .300. He was doing just fine. FG’s WAR value was 2.1, good for 11th amongst qualifying short stops and that was despite his second half fall off that can be contributed to injury, if say his “healthy value” is 3, that puts him in 8th and while $5.5 million is more than 8th place for SS contracts, we can afford that for stability at the position. Considering who we’ve played at short stop this decade, having some stability is nice and having a guy that does everything pretty well is a lot better than a lot of options out there at a position like short stop where there is a lot of mediocrity.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
He's a 34 year old backup
Yes, he got injured, because that’s what 34 year old backups do. That’s why he’s been a backup until he was 32.
...Because he gets injured?
Aren’t backups usually less-impressive but reliable types? So that you’re likely to have your backup available when the starter goes down?
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by Ben Buchanan on Nov 12, 2010 4:46 PM EST up reply actions
Any number of reasons why someone is a backup
Just not good enough, injury-prone and never developed, etc. Scutaro wasn’t a starter for a reason.
Low numbers were the reasons.
Not injury prone, I don’t think.
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by Ben Buchanan on Nov 12, 2010 6:27 PM EST up reply actions
or they can be guys who are likely to wear down if they play every day,
but should be able to hold up playing occassionally
I wouldn’t say he’s been a “backup” his whole career:
2004: Oakland 117 Starts, 137 Games, 477 PA
2005: Oakland 106 Starts, 118 Games, 423 PA
2006: Oakland 105 Starts, 117 Games, 423 PA
2007: Oakland 86 Starts, 104 Games, 379 PA
2008: Toronto 133 Starts, 145 Games, 592 PA
2009: Toronto 143 Starts, 144 Games, 680 PA
He’s been a wildly more consistent Alex Cora, maybe he never had a position nailed down, but since 2004 he’s started far more games than he hasn’t.
Also according to http://www.baseballinjurytool.com/ he has never been on the disabled list.
At short stop a player with “0 upside” yet “mitigates the negatives” with a clean injury history is a pretty good deal and he played pretty well for us as a starter which he has shown he can do. There isn’t much reason to call him a “nothing”. He’s a starting caliber short stop who was actually above average for us this year.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
+1 Scutaro is a very fair deal and he is relaible and consistent
If Theo dangled him in a trade I think several teams would be interested. As much as fans would like to have Allstars at every position it just does not work out that way – he is above average and he played when others would have sat out and recovered. What more can a team ask for???
"Man that ball got outta here in a hurry, you know anything that travels that far oughta have a damn stewardess on it, don't you think?" - Crash Davis
They would be interested
if we pay 100% of the cost. Nobody in their right mind would pay good money to a player like Scutaro.
I think people here
have a great misconception of what teams are willing to pay. Not every team can throw $173m to finish third.
Short stops aren’t good these days with a few exceptions, we paid him like a good short stop and he played like a good short stop. Marco Scutaro is a good short stop.
And what does what we paid and where we placed have anything to do with anything? Youkilis, Pedrioa, Cameron, Ellsbury, Scutaro, Martinez, Varitek, Beckett, Matsuzaka, Buchholz. most years that list of names would be why we WON, this year this list of players can be counted among the reasons we lost. And yes not every team can afford $6mil at short stop but most can, especially for an above average player as in Scutaro who can play anywhere in the infield, has played outfield before and at least at SS, has an above average bat at an offense starved position.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
I'm not arguing that he's an incredible shortstop or anything
but if you think that a shortstop who’s unimpressive but OK isn’t worth pretty close to what he’s making, you need to take a look at the shortstops around the league.
I think SOME PEOPLE here
have some pretty skewed perceptions on what a good ball player is.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
Well,I will concede this you cleave to your perceptions and opinions even when the evidence would show you otherwise
I do not agree he would be attractive to many teams he is a proven commodity
"Man that ball got outta here in a hurry, you know anything that travels that far oughta have a damn stewardess on it, don't you think?" - Crash Davis
Ok quick clarification on verbal imagery - I tried to create this:
“Therefore shall a man leave his father and his mother, and shall cleave unto his wife: and they shall be one flesh.
In other words, you cleave unto your opinions as a new groom would cleave unto his wife ;)
but yes to the clinging you get the idea
"Man that ball got outta here in a hurry, you know anything that travels that far oughta have a damn stewardess on it, don't you think?" - Crash Davis
Our language is so stupid
Why would a word not exactly in common-usage have diametrically-opposed meanings? Cleave, as in cling, implies togetherness, while Cleave as in cleft implies division.
Anyway, rash-correction rescinded. This bloody language, honestly.
Which of these three random lines do you like the least?
A: .270 BA, .340 OBP, .370 SLG
B: .275 BA, .333 OBP, .388 SLG
C: .243 BA, .320 OBP, .374 SLG
I'd say none of the above
Find some random person. The difference between a .680 and .720 OPS isn’t that great. When there’s weakness at a position, you don’t lose as much by not fielding someone in the upper half.
Trying to find a Major League Comparison
and I came up with ….Michael Young
Young broke in at 2B in 2001 at age of 24 and had a few mediocre years in 2001/2002 but showed flashes with a little bit of pop.
He moved to SS in 2003 at age 26 and posted a .309/.336/.436 line with 14 homers.
Lowrie was 26 last year and shows much more patience than Young did at that age.
I’d say if we had a Michael Young type player on our hands for the next 6-7 seasons we’d all be fairly happy
For sure!
Young is the Rangers all time hits leader…
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by Marisa Ingemi on Nov 12, 2010 10:52 AM EST up reply actions
Introducing your new biggest Jed Lowrie fan: Sandy!
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USG
by Ben Buchanan on Nov 12, 2010 11:52 AM EST up reply actions
Every time I;ve seen Lowrie healthy, I’ve been impressed.
He just has to stay healthy.
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Lowrie will be a valuable player for the Sox in 2011
I have a tough time getting my head around a left side IF of Lowrie and Scutaro to start the 2011 season. Lowrie looks much better as a super sub likely to see significant playing time at SS and third, depending upon what the do there. I’m still betting the Sox don’t want Beltre for the kind of long term deal he will get. Beltre’s family lives on the West coast and I’m betting he ends up with the Angels. Assuming Beltre is gone, the Sox are going to need addional IF help in a big way. If Lowrie is at 3B, who is the backup SS? Scuatro, an average all-around player at best, is coming off surgery and can’t be counted on to play 150 games there. Are there any other FA 3B the Sox can bring in for competition in the spring? Wiggington?
...Scutaro is coming off surgery??...
Do you have a link to the Scutaro surgery? I haven’t heard that he had surgery or is having it.
no, pretty sure they were discussing it but decided it would be unnecessary
but he is aging and coming off an injury-filled year
And yet Scutaro's name pops up on a winter league roster.
The “might need surgery but doesn’t have it” eats at me a bit in the off season. Sometimes rest helps but with what doctors can do these days it’s like …season ends, get ur done.
Lowrie should not be backing up Scutaro
A 100 point swing in OPS is significant, especially given that they’re probably equal at defense. Lowrie should start, with Scutaro as the backup, salaries be damned.
Fenway: "An alternate and better universe, disguised as a ballpark." --Thomas Boswell
Won't need to
Hopefully Lowrie will be our starting 3B. I hate Scutaro, but I’d feel more confident without a Beltre anchor around our necks.
Come on, let's go already!
Forget Beltre. Having Adrian at first base makes a sure fielder out of anyone at third. Youkillis will do just fine there.
Alright Soxfans. Let’s get Adrian and his probable .300/.400/.600 slash line on your team. You have no idea how good this guy will be in smaller ballpark. He’s a lock for 40 homers and might hit 55. He fixed his shoulder that kept his numbers down at the end of last season and should be perfectly healthy to start the season.
Just hold your nose and bite the bullet on prospects. We want Jed Lowrie, Micheal Bowden, and Casey Kelly. Pull the trigger, come on, let’s do this!
"Never have a motto, that's what I always say" - Me
JESUS! HARM ANAL MENACE - Name anagram, lol.
I might not do that because of Lowrie.
He’s young, cheap, and capable of being a MLB SS. I’m not convinced Iglesias will ever be anything. There are some big name SS’s in next year’s FA pool, but they’ll be expensive and possibly unaffordable. Lowrie isn’t the next Hanley, but he seems to be on the rise. I don’t mind giving up Bowden or Kelly as much. Gonzalez is a really good player, but the trade is only for one year of a really good player when we can control Lowrie for multiple years.
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Twitter: @BoldandBrash
by BoldandBrash on Nov 14, 2010 2:42 PM EST up reply actions
if you're following them, maybe you know more than me
but at this point, it just sounds stupid to me to be trading adrian before the season starts- just because it’s going to be months before he can even swing a bat, teams are probably going to want to see him play a bit before they hand over everything valuable- plus no GM is going to want to be trading a lot away for a player that might have to start the year on the DL- that’s just awful PR
And just how exactly is he a lock for 40 HR?
I know he was hitting in Petco, but he’s only had 40 once in his career.
embrace the martian
Twitter: @BoldandBrash
by BoldandBrash on Nov 14, 2010 6:32 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
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