Fixing The Red Sox Bullpen: Righties
As the 2010 trade deadline grew near, it was clear that the Red Sox were in desperate need of some bullpen help. With that in mind, I took a look at the options on the market in anticipation that maybe, possibly, they'd pick someone up.
Well, we know that didn't happen. The Sox generally packed it up, shipping out relievers instead of bringing them in, and the bullpen stayed its miserable self.
Now, with Theo Epstein resolved to fix the bullpen over the offseason, let's try again and take another look at who the Sox might pick up, this time in free agency, starting with the righties.
Grant Balfour - You know how Theo doesn't like spending money on FA relievers because they're inconsistent? Meet the poster boy. With a pattern that reminds you of Beckett's even-odd issues, Balfour just can't seem to be relied on in any given year. With only a few straight MLB seasons in his pocket, a high fly ball rate, some really worrying xFIPs, and type-A designation, Balfour just doesn't scream "smart buy".
Joaquin Benoit - If Balfour looks inconsistent, then Benoit looks straight-up flukey. Picked up as a minor league free agent, Benoit took his failing career and turned it around with an absolutely dominant season of relief. A K/9 over 11? A BB/9 over 2? Those are some incredible numbers, and they're even held up a bit by the fact that Benoit was improving in the last few years in his peripherals before his disastrous 2009. It depends on what he expects to get, but if other teams don't jump on Benoit's 2010 numbers and pay him big, he could be one of the higher-reward risks on the market.
Jose Contreras - Contreras put up some pretty decent numbers in his first year as a pure reliever, with decent peripherals to go with. But a 39-year-old making the late-career transfer to relieving in the NL...In this decently relief-rich market, the Red Sox can probably do better. On the bright side, he'd definitely be a 1-year deal.
Jesse Crain - Just your typical guy getting lucky in a contract year. A good year, but not good enough to warrant benoit-level attention.
Jason Frasor - Frasor strikes me as the guy who has built a reputation of being great while only really earning "good". And he is certainly good. But is he really great with his xFIPs floating in the mid-high 3's? Sure, relievers can sometimes have lower HR/FB rates, but I just think he's going to cost too much for too little, and the Type-A really pushes me over the edge.
Matt Guerrier - Consecutive years with BABIPs under .240? Let someone else make this mistake. Next!
J. J. Putz - Putz is coming off a resurgent 2010, making his situation a lot like Benoit's, just better. With his good track record, Putz would seem a safer signing for a multi-year deal. With increased ground ball rates and good peripherals, Putz just seems like a guy who's gotten used to his slightly decreased velocity. Still, that doesn't mean give the guy a Papelbon-sized fortune. For that matter, don't give Papelbon a Papelbon-sized fortune.
John Rauch - A good stint as the Twins' closer doesn't change the fact that he's never been consistently impressive. He's like a less-extreme Balfour on both sides of things.
Takashi Saito - Yeah, yeah, we got this one wrong. But that doesn't mean the Sox should spring for a 41-year-old type-A.
Koji Uehara - He's kind of like Benoit with even less of a track record, but that lack of a track record actually makes his season look less like a fluke, and more like a matter of adjusting to the MLB and A.L. East. His flyball rates might not play so well in Fenway, however.
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So you say it's a "decently rich FA market"...
…but you don’t like any of them?
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
I also like...lemme check...3 lefties.
That’s up tomorrow at 8:00, too.
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Oct 9, 2010 12:59 PM EDT up reply actions
Yes, that happens a lot here
everyone want to sign these great players or make trades, but nobody wants to give up the Sox money (I never get that), prospects in a trade or even draft picks. its called fear, and Theo and the Sox can’t operate like that.
Putting together bullpens is like playing Roulette
Or, in the worst case scenario, Russian Roulette.
It’s hard to sign Type A relievers and give up draft picks on guys who could just as likely implode as give you a Bard-like season. It’s especially true when their good seasons tend to be magnified by luck.
Fenway: "An alternate and better universe, disguised as a ballpark." --Thomas Boswell
If you give up money, it's money you can't spend elsewhere.
And they didn’t seem too afraid to sign Lackey and Beckett.
"Every night I go to bed thinking about when I’m going to play again. I dream about playing at Fenway."-Ryan Westmoreland
Twitter: @BoldandBrash
by BoldandBrash on Oct 10, 2010 5:33 PM EDT up reply actions
Mostly because we're realistic
HanRam was the only top prospect we’ve traded and that wasn’t even Theo’s doing. IIRC that was done during his brief vacation from the team while his contract was handled. The last time Theo traded decent prospects for a reliever? I believe that was Eric Gagne. That left a bad taste in his mouth.
In terms of money, the Sox operate on a budget. Plain and simple. If we had all the money in the world to spend and try and match the Yankees we would, we haven’t done that yet so it’s a pretty safe assumption that we have limits and we’re near them.
In draft picks, Theo has found the best way to replenish the system, the system is flawed to our advantage. These days great players in their prime don’t reach FA the way they used to. Players are getting locked up to longer deals earlier in their careers and are becoming available past their prime.
It’s not fear, it’s realism. If prospects, draft picks and a budget weren’t serious things to consider then the Sox would looked like a fantasy team, it doesn’t so there must be something to this “fear” of ours.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
The Sox need 2 to 3 arms for the pen
I’d take a chance on any two from this group: J. J. Putz, Jason Frasor, Grant Balfour, or Joaquin Benoit (even if he massively overperformed this year …95.1% LOB%). They’ll also need a lefty (Scott Downs?).
Who the Sox lose via FA or sign via FA, will determine whether or not they want a Type-A reliever. A guy like Frasor may only cost a 2nd or 3rd round pick if the Sox sign other Type-As. Or, if the Sox have multiple 1st round picks after letting VMart or Beltre walk, they might be more willing to lose one in order to strengthen the pen.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
Because Benoit only has one great year to hang his hit on
and not two, he is projecting to be a Tybe-B FA and not involve the loss of a 1st round pick. But like Buzzy pointed out last week, can he be trusted to deliver another great year? Someone will take the risk. I’d be willing to do it but to go short on years.
It would scare me to pay FA $$ for JJ Putz ( also Type-B) with a short history of elbow issues but if he hangs around and the $$ and years come down I’m in.
With the current rules as they are, it does make sense once you have bought a Type-A FA to buy several and not get hurt as much in the draft pick department. It will be interesting to see how the Sox keep the balance.
How about keeping Matt Guerrier Type-A on the radar if we start buying Type-A’s. Lefties have always had a hard time getting the ball in the air on him and he brings a great variety of pitches to attack with: fourseam fastball (91 mph ave), twoseam fastball (90 ave), cut fastball (91 ave), slider (86), changeup (84), and curveball (79) all with good movement.
He does pitch to contact but he gets his SO’s when batters chase his stuff out of the zone. And you can pitch him up to 2 innings and he’ll come in 75-80 games a year. He’s done well for the Twins and he will be missed.
Matt Guerrier pitch f/x link
Guerrier splits link
Guerrier contract history link
All relievers are a risk
I’m also not a huge Matt Guerrier fan, especially if he’s a Type-A. I don’t really like low K-rate relievers, and Guerrier’s walk rate isn’t low enough to offset his bad K-rate. Of course he gets Ks when hitters chase his stiff out of the zone. He’s primarily a fastball, slider pitcher. In my opinion, Guerrier’s success is the result of BABIP. When it’s very low, he’s successful; when it trends toward normal, he’s bad.
As a Type-B, I think Benoit is a better risk. Also, Benoit is just as tough on lefties as he is on righties. He’s a great strikeout pitcher, and he’s had more than just the one great year. At worst, he’s as good as Guerrier.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Oct 9, 2010 3:20 PM EDT up reply actions
He does have a rubber arm and has only been on the 15 day DL once in his career.
And that was because he got hit in the hand by a batted ball. If a move in the off season results in the Sox signing a Type-A FA to replace V-Mart or Beltre, Guerrier’s Type-A will become a 2nd or 3rd round draft pick loss instead of a 1st round pick loss. If he’s still hanging around, which he will as a Type-A, his price and years will drop and he could become an option. I’ve liked Guerrier when I’ve seen him pitch and also see some value in his ability to stay healthy and pitch a lot of innings out of the pen. We do need a lot of help with our 2011 pen.
Also, we stand a good chance of seeing John Farrell leave to manage this year. Any thoughts on who his replacement might be?
Farrell has been offered jobs before
So, just because his name came up, it doesn’t mean he’ll leave.
As for Guerrier, he’s OK. I prefer J. J. Putz, Jason Frasor, Grant Balfour, or Joaquin Benoit , though. I prefer relief pitchers who don’t pitch to contact. That said, the Twins have used Guerrier in high leverage situations. I’m just not impressed by him, especially for a Type-A.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Oct 9, 2010 4:29 PM EDT up reply actions
This year is a little different for Farrell.
With his primary home being in Cleveland and Pittsburgh being so close (130 miles down I-80), I believe this may be the year he moves on to more $$ and more responsibility.
And Farrell isn’t the only Sox employee other teams will talk to. We’ll see what happens in early November.
Seems to me
that when Farrell’s name came up previous, there was some sort of agreement in place that he’d stay with the Sox until a certain year. Am I making that up?
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
I think he should leave we need some new ideas/fresh look with our pitchers
Nothing against Farrell – I just think I new look would be a good idea. Or,if Farrell stays bring on another guy for a fresh viewpoint to help
"Man that ball got outta here in a hurry, you know anything that travels that far oughta have a damn stewardess on it, don't you think?" - Crash Davis
I'd sell your left kidney for Dave Duncan.
Not mine, mind.
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Oct 11, 2010 9:54 AM EDT up reply actions
That is so generous of you
If it is any comfort I would sell your left side of the brain for Duncan
"Man that ball got outta here in a hurry, you know anything that travels that far oughta have a damn stewardess on it, don't you think?" - Crash Davis
Hey, now, that's uncalled for.
Man, Kidneys ain’t shit.
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Oct 13, 2010 10:54 PM EDT up reply actions
me too
"Every night I go to bed thinking about when I’m going to play again. I dream about playing at Fenway."-Ryan Westmoreland
Twitter: @BoldandBrash
Id take one of Wood/Putz/Frasor, and when Downs gets mentioned tomorrow, I’m all for it.
The certified ambassador of all things good and great, here at OTM.
DO NOT OVERPAY FOR BELTRE !!!
TRADE ELLSBURY THIS WINTER !!!
One of the many, proud OTM'ers that cannot stand Josh Beckett.
Maybe we could get Wood cheap and Putz/Frasor.
I’m not crazy about Wood, though.
"Every night I go to bed thinking about when I’m going to play again. I dream about playing at Fenway."-Ryan Westmoreland
Twitter: @BoldandBrash
Wood's BB-rate is awful
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Oct 9, 2010 8:50 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm not a Kerry Wood fan
He’s been average as a reliever at best. This stretch with the Yankees has been great for him but impossible to forsee. I think we’ve seen enough of middle-of-the-road Wood to know what he’ll probably regress to next year.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
I'd take Octavio Dotel, too. He's unspectacular, but cheap and pretty steady.
I’d also go for Benoit and Putz in getting good bang for the buck.
He could be a decent back-end guy
But I’m not sure Fenway suits him.
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Oct 11, 2010 12:23 PM EDT up reply actions

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