For John Lackey, is it up or down from here?
by wolf9309 on Oct 7, 2010 9:00 AM EDT
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PrintI remember when I first heard that the Red Sox were signing John Lackey. I remember thinking that it had to be a joke. In addition to the fact that I (along with much of Red Sox nation) had just spent the winter mulling over how much I hated John Lackey and the Angels he had spent his career on – which I like to think was at least a little justified since they’d so easily just swept the Red Sox out of the playoffs.
In addition to the intense dislike of him I’d garnered over the last couple of years, it just seemed unlikely- the Sox had Lester, Beckett, Buchholz, Matsuzaka, and Wakefield; it already looked like a pretty good rotation on paper and it seemed like it would make a whole lot more sense to sign a pretty good pitcher to a short contract than to go all out signing the best pitcher available for big money.
I spent the next couple of weeks trying to figure out and justify to myself how that could possibly make sense, but remained unconvinced.
Once, however, Spring Training came around, he changed my mind faster than I could have believed.
He quickly became the most entertaining part of the Grapefruit League for me. During games, he was dominant, almost making it all the way through the spring without allowing a single earned run. In his interviews after the games I just thought he was hilarious. In my mind, he seemed poised for a huge year in the championship-caliber team I was convinced they put together.
After his dominant appearance on St. Patrick’s Day, he said:
Usually in spring, if I get to three balls on a guy, I'll just throw it down the middle,'' Lackey said. "But I don't walk guys, anyway. I 'm going to pound the zone, so I need guys to make plays behind me, and it's fun to know that here, they can.'
I thought to myself that this was a philosophy I could get behind.
Once the season started, it was a whole different story. He was striking out batters far below his lowest career rate, walking them more than ever before, but worst of all, he seemed incredibly hittable. He seemed to have lost everything that had made me worry when the Sox had faced him in the past, and was left with poor pitching and an unapologetic attitude, insisting again and again that he was pitching the way he wanted and was just getting unlucky. He seemed to have no desire to change anything he was doing or figure out where his problems lie.
It didn’t seem to be until much later in the year that he finally started owning up to his mistakes and making the adjustments he needed. I didn’t notice it until after getting obliterated by the Blue Jays, when in his postgame press conference he said:
You deserve to lose when you pitch like this. I didn't pitch well and didn't give us a chance to win.
When I saw that, I looked back and realized he had actually been pitching pretty well since about the all-star break. His strikeout rates had gone way up and while his walk rates still weren’t phenomenal, they were improving to about the levels I’d expect from a pitcher like Lackey. A couple of days later, he explained that in the AL East he had to adjust his pitching more than he expected. As Jason Varitek explained to Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe:
Not to disparage anybody else, but [the AL East] is traditionally where the best lineups are. You are going to face these teams four or five times, not just in a three-game series when you might not pitch. You have to make adjustments.
Once Lackey finally started taking responsibility and adjusting to facing the elite AL East lineups so many times, he finally became the pitcher we hoped we would be getting coming into the year. Due to a very impressive finish in September and October, Lackey actually looked quite good at the end of the year. While it still ended up being one of the worst years of his career, it was nowhere near as bad as it looked like it was going to be in the beginning of July.
Basically, Lackey has looked like a severe disappointment this year, but there is hope. If he can continue the solid pitching he flashed at the end of the year, he could be back to the elite #2-#3 starter that we’d hoped he would be in the first place. So far his Red Sox career has been up and down, but I’m feeling optimistic about the Lackey we’re going to see in 2011.
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My disdain for John "That Meathead" Lackey is well-documented, of course.
And, like yourself, much of it was based on the fact that I’ve spent 5 straight years hating the guy. His xFIP or whatever isn’t enough to change that for me.
I guess part of the reason that he hasn’t completely won me over was that he stunk up the joint. But the other reason, as well documented on Joy of Sox, was that he spent the entire season saying that he actually pitched great, but it was everybody and everything else’s fault.
Yer suckin’. Admit and fix it, ya bum.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
He got ace-worthy money, but he'll never be the ace of our lineup.
Lester is clearly #1, Buchholz, who will likely step back a bit, and a healthier, improved Beckett also have more innate ability than Lackey. He’s more consistent than Dice-K, but is closer to his talent level than he is to the other three.
I realize I’m giving an awful lot of credit to Beckett here. I hope that’s not just wishful thinking after he got that ridiculous contract last year.
All true
But think of it this way: that makes Lackey the #4 pitcher next year, and he’ll be better than he was this year.
And Beckett, Youk, Pedroia, Lowrie, Ellsbury, and Cameron will all be healthy.
This team won 89 games with poor seasons from three starting pitchers, a lousy bullpen, five starters (I didn’t include Martinez above because we don’t know if he’ll be back) plus Lowrie missing a substantial part of the season, and Scutaro playing hurt most of the year. And Papelbon had a lousy year, but he’ll be a free agent next year and needs to come back strong if he wants a big contract from anyone. Theo has a lot of work to do, but this team looks great for next year.
What looks great?
Sure, the starting rotation should be excellent, and that goes a long way, but what else looks great right now?
Two key contributors, Beltre and Victor Martinez, are free agents. Ortiz could be let go (unlikey, but possible), and the bullpen still sucks.
Well...
Our other key contributors, Youk and Pedroia, will be back. That’s worth getting excited about right there. And even though I’m on the “please bring back Ortiz” train, like most others around here, DH is one of the easiest positions to fill. I want Papi back too, but he’s not irreplaceable (or at least not his numbers. As a Sox icon, that might be a different story).
And you can knock on Ells and Cameron all you want, but they still are good-to-really-good major league players. Having them both healthy looks pretty great to me.
I’m not trying to be all sunshine and roses here. There are definitely holes to fill, especially if Beltre and VMart both walk. And the bullpen needs to be addressed for sure. But let’s not pretend like we’re going to be the Pirates next year. Theo will have every opportunity to make this a championship caliber team for 2011 (much like many experts predicted this year would be, before all the injuries)…
That is why the FO should just exercise the option on him this year
"Man that ball got outta here in a hurry, you know anything that travels that far oughta have a damn stewardess on it, don't you think?" - Crash Davis
How quickly you forget!
We have one of the best first basemen in the league, and he’s going to be healthy.
We have one of the best second basemen in the league, and he’s going to be healthy.
We have three great defensive outfielders, each of which is also effective if not exactly elite at the plate, and the two who basically missed the whole year with injuries will be back and healthy.
Scutaro was decent despite playing hurt all year, and Lowrie looks like he could be excellent. Both should be healthy next year.
We may or may not re-sign Beltre or Martinez, but it’s a little too early to panic about having replacement level players at third and catcher. Papi may or may not be back, but if he isn’t, it’s not that hard to find someone who can hit to play DH. And it’s really too early to assume that there will be no changes to the bullpen.
So even if we have nothing else right now, we’re solid at 1B, 2B, SS, and all three OF positions, and we have an excellent rotation. We also have Bard and a highly motivated Papelbon in the bullpen. We have an enormous amount of young talent at AAA, some of whom may well end up on the major league roster and some of whom could be traded to fill gaps in the roster. And there’s always free agency. In short, there are about 18 teams that would kill to be where the Sox are now, and that’s pretty damn good for a team that didn’t make the playoffs. The only way that doesn’t look great is if you’re still whining about how it’s all Theo’s fault a team with more injuries than any in recent memory only won 89 games.
I thought Pap was supposed to be motivated by the 09 playoffs...
"Every night I go to bed thinking about when I’m going to play again. I dream about playing at Fenway."-Ryan Westmoreland
Twitter: @BoldandBrash
Well,
He was worth $15.9 million, per Fangraphs, this year. (Almost up to his 2010 salary…)
I think somebody else mentioned it, but perhaps this is another signing similar to Drew… big money, lots of people think its a waste, but in the end turns out to be about what we pay for.
I think the Beckett deal will end up worse
but this deal sucks too
Bring in Bard.
"That place was for diehard sports fans. I only follow my team when they're in the playoffs" - Homer Simpson
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by bestbostonsports on Oct 7, 2010 1:00 PM EDT up reply actions
I was going to point that out too
Yes the value on fangraphs is a little wonky but he didn’t pitch as poorly as it would seem if you followed some of the game threads around here with their eternal pessimism. Something was different about him but usually some diagnosis can be made, for him, it was a rather anomalous drop in ability, I think he can get it back.
And in comment to dsharp above, it isn’t about where you pitch in the rotation, if Lackey pitches like an ace but is only 4th in our rotation he’s still worth ace money. He didn’t pitch like an ace this year for sure, but he was still a valuable pitcher.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
Let's hope he pitches like an ace next year.
I’m afraid he and/or Beckett may turn out to be our A.J. Burnett.
If he was worth 15.9 million according to Fangraphs
then Fangraphs has lost any and all credibility to me.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
From what I recall
Fangraphs’s “worth” is more a reflection of how much money it would have cost to replace that WAR via FA. Since Lackey was worth 4 WAR (I would not have guessed that at all), and each win above replacement cost ~$4 million this year, his value was $16 million.
So he was worth almost the same this year as last… But he did pitch 40 more innings this year, giving him much more time to produce that value.
but the 40 extra innings IS a huge extra value
whatever negatives he had, he managed to go deep in games most of the time.
Remember 2009, when the Smoltz/Penny debacle pitched something like a total of 2 outs past the 6th inning?
+1
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Oct 8, 2010 10:03 AM EDT up reply actions
Yes, it is the nature of the FA market
Most good, veteran FA’s are “overpaid”; it is just the structure of the labor market at work. Is Bucholz underpaid? I don’t hear any noise about that. It is very opportunity driven and the money a particular player gets also depends upon the right team, with money, needing those skills. The Red Sox needed an OF, Drew was a good player, so the Sox ponied up the money. Simple. They had the need, the opportunity and the money. See Texeira.
Similar deal with Lackey.
I’m betting the Lackey deal works out for the most part and I don’t think the contract will prohibit the Sox from signing any players they want.
lacker will be better in 2011
he will continue his second half of 2010 performance.
in the scheme of things in the baseball market, his signing will probably be seen as good.
the green would have been better spent on halladay and/or holiday or saved for this year’s fa lee.
the market determines the price which includes the length of the contract.
the sox lowered their signing risk by having the injury clause inserted.
living with the length has been tough for me, but what are you going to do?
wonky +1
is that the adjective of wonker?
what would be the verb – wonked?
plural? wonkers or wonkies?
hope you don’t mind but i’m going to steal it.
Ha steal away
For complete definition check Urban Dictionary
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
IIRC, he had a ton of errors behind him this year.
I think his main problem, the command, will come back somewhat next year.
"Every night I go to bed thinking about when I’m going to play again. I dream about playing at Fenway."-Ryan Westmoreland
Twitter: @BoldandBrash
I'm assuming you heard that from Lackey himself?
(j/k)
Wait 'til next/this year?
"Laser show. So relax."
by nuthinboutnuthin on Oct 7, 2010 7:39 PM EDT up reply actions
if he can keep us close in games, and eat innings
I like him. It’s not his fault we gave him a stupid contract.
The certified ambassador of all things good and great, here at OTM.
DO NOT OVERPAY FOR BELTRE !!!
TRADE ELLSBURY THIS WINTER !!!
One of the many, proud OTM'ers that cannot stand Josh Beckett.
The FA market was set the year before by A J Burnett: 5 yrs/ 82.5 mil
Exactly what Lackey got.
Burnett’s free agent value to the Yanks in the 1st year of his contract was $15.4 mil and the 2nd year (‘10) he was worth $5.2 mil.
Lackey’s free agent value in the 1st year (‘10) was $15.9 mil….2nd yr?…. can he struggle more than A J did in his sophomore year of a five year contract? He better not. We’ll soon see.
Lackey is 1 yr and 9 months younger than A J.
Lackey did changed his pitch repertoire when he came over to the AL East.
With the Angels in ’09, he had been throwing 51% fourseam fastballs, 5% twoseam fastballs, and 3% cut fastballs.
With the Sox in ’10, Lackey went with 15% fourseam fastballs, 5% twoseam fastballs, and 42% cut fastballs.
I wonder why he changed after so many years of fourseamers?
Average movement on his 4seamer was 8.3 vertical and -6.3 horizontal.
Average movement on his cutter was 9.6 vertical and -2.8 horizontal.
The average velocity of both pitches are almost exactly the same, just over 91mph.
I never heard a reporter ask him why he changed his most sucessful pitch and started to lean on the cutter so much.
Let’s hope he doesn’t have the sophomore slump that AJ Burnett is in.
How did no one get him to try more with the 4-seamer....
That game in Seatle he dominated all he did was throw a nasty fastball all night. He just seemed afraid to do that any other time.
I love Lester and Pedroia!!! ITS MAN LOVE!
In Seattle Lackey threw strikes.
For fastballs at was 16 fourseamers, 1 twoseamer, and 54 cut fastballs. I just don’t know why this year he went to the cutter as his go to pitch. He never did that before. It was always the fourseamer.
Link to 7/22/10 @ Seattle pitch charts
Thanks Dan Brooks.
"The FA Market was set"
That’s nonsense. AJ got 5/83 so we had to give Lackey 5/83? Give me a break.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
No, we didn't have to
But the bar had been set and somebody was going to do it. If we wanted Lackey, or at least to get Lackey without drawing out negotiations, then yes we had to give him that.
The Yankees doling out a bloated contract
is not “setting the bar”. It’s the Yankees doing what the Yankees do.
It’s not setting the bar.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
And that's how the FA market evolved to where it's at.
George kept paying and all the agents use previous contracts to compare their clients to. Would you rather use Zito (7 yrs,$126 mil, $17.3 mil ave), Zambrano (5 yrs, $91.5 mil, $18.0 mil ave), or Peavy (3 yrs, $52 mil, $17.3 mil ave) as comps? How do you believe agents negotiate? You could wait and hope a FA falls through the cracks and his agent drops his asking price but when you’re the best available FA (pitching) at the time, the price doesn’t often drop. Other teams wanted him.
Agents also used the contracts of Johan Santana (5 yrs, $115 mil, $22.9 mil ave) and CC Sabathia (7 yrs, $162 mil, $23 mil ave) but they aren’t as good a comp as AJ and Lackey are.
I hated Lackey as an Angel but it now says Boston on the front on his shirt, so I’m trying to get the old hate out. It’s not easy when the enemy signs with your team but he’s got my laundry on and I wish all the best for him and his family in the next four years.
Also, he took the ball every five days, throw 3600 pitches in 33 starts (19 so called quality starts) and improved in the second half of the season. There is value in that.
I agree there was value in his durability and that he improved in the 2nd half
But the the free agent market is supposed to be played by evaluating a talent and then deciding how much it’s actually worth. Then add and subtract actual dollar amounts that you are willing to spend compared on who else is bidding.
Just because the Yankees shelled out 83 large the year before for a comparable pitcher doesn’t mean that you shrug and say, “Oh well, that’s where we are now.” That’s ridiculous.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
"...supposed to be played..."
Agents (lawyers) base their case (defense) on the contracts that have been given out to players in recent years. Boras goes to great lengths to find stats on players to compare them to his client. His company is the best at it. Very much like us cherry picking to find a few stats to strengthen our case. Sometimes the agent will shop his FA client around by starting with a high $$ amount and high amount of years but when push comes to shove sitting down with one team, often agents say we are not taking a dime less or a year less than what another FA got in the years before.
In Lackey’s case, many teams were interested. The Sox generally put a value on a player and try their best to not go over that value and over pay. To do this for $$ they use WAR type values, with one WAR being worth about $4 mil on the FA market.
Through 2009, Lackey had compiled 31.4 WAR in 7 and 1/2 years ( in ‘02, rookie yr, he threw his first pitch 6/24/02, about half a year). For his career, he is averaging over 4 WAR/year and thats including all his years pitching, not just his most recent years.
The Sox put a value on his services and didn’t go over that value in $$. The agent most likely came in asking for seven years like the Zito contract. They agreed on five like the Burnett contract and the Sox were smart to add an insurance clause. If Lackey misses time for an elbow injury (ex: tommy john), then Lackey will have to make up a year by playing one year at the league minimum (500k +/-) in 2015. The Yanks didn’t get any insurance for Burnett.
If you didn’t want John Lackey to begin with, nothing’s going to change your mind. He pitched well for the Angels but I never feared him when the Sox played against him. He’s an emotional competitor who needs to better harness his emotions on the mound. We have him now for four more years and he has made adjustments to pitch in the AL East and has shown improvements in the second half of the season with those adjustments.
Let’s hope he over achieves. He never really has been an under achiever in his career.
contract insurance clause link
Top average annual pitching value link
Lackey career WAR link
I understand everything you just said
And that’s fine.
But what I’m saying is “So what?” You talk like the fact that Burnett and Lackey are comparable makes it impossible for the Sox or anyone else to look at that contract and say, “That’s a stupid @#$%ing contract”. Because the FA market is now “set”. And I say horse-hockey.
You’re right. I didn’t want Lackey, I still don’t want Lackey, and unless he saves a bus fulla orphans, I’m probably never gonna want Lackey. But that has nothing to do with this conversation. If this was a conversation about that, well, you’d be barkin’ at a brick wall.
Nothing is “set”. If the Sox feel confident for the money that is spent, that’s one thing. But the whole “Well, that’s what we have to do now that the MFY signed that AJ contract” is just silly.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
Yeah
The market dictates prices. If nobody is willing to pay 100mil for player X, then he isn’t going to get 100mil unless somebody is really stupid. However, if multiple teams are willing to pay close to or equal that amount, then player X will get his money. Maybe we drastically overspent for Lackey, or maybe there were other teams involved which meant he was pretty much guaranteed that money. Then it would be the question of if we was the right guy to spend that money on, instead of was that the right amount to spend.
"Every night I go to bed thinking about when I’m going to play again. I dream about playing at Fenway."-Ryan Westmoreland
Twitter: @BoldandBrash
Oh, and the Yankees don't necessarily dictate the market.
Lackey could’ve asked for AJ’s contract, and the rest of the league could have still told him to go shove it.
"Every night I go to bed thinking about when I’m going to play again. I dream about playing at Fenway."-Ryan Westmoreland
Twitter: @BoldandBrash
Maybe "set" is too strong a word but there is a bar that is established for FA.
The previous “comp FA pitchers contracts” is what is used by agents when they fight to get their clients money and is also the method used in arbitration hearings.The last two years having the most weight. Any team has the right to walk away from a FA. In this case, the Sox choice was to move forward and buy a pitcher with a career 31.4 WAR as of ‘09. Lackey never threw up a 7 WAR year like CC or Johan but he has put up high 5 WAR’s and even a 6 WAR season. I believe he will again.
Others believe he will struggle like AJ. I agree to disagree.
I think it was Zito who screwed the whole market
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
he's signed through 2013
If you mean by trade, the Giants would gladly give him to anyone willing to take his contract
yup, i did mean through trade
the giants left him off of the initial post season roster
3 team trade with us getting zitz and navarro
just kidding
FA market always a huge risk
The most valuable commodity in all of professional sports is an ace or ace-type pitcher. Zito was a top pitcher when the Giants signed him. Over the course of a huge contract, most pitcher deals will look bad. Santana had a number of good year for the Mets and Sabatthia is tearing it up for the Yankees. If Sabathia breaks down in two years, will the deal be a bad one? The peception changes, naturally, if the team does well. Nobody remembers Santan’a good years with the Mets, but if the Yankees win 2 more WS in the next 2-3 years and Sabatthia is a big contribuor, that deal looks great.
In any long-term deal, pitcher or player, but especially pitcher, the last years are going to make the deal look bad. It is simply the cost of doing business between a buyer and seller.
I had serious reservations about this signing
See here .
One year in, it looks like they were justified.
Adrian Beltre is why we can't have healthy outfielders.
I think transitioning to the AL East is big part of his performance
I remember that post.
Buchholz may never be as good as Lackey, but he will be cheaper. I would argue that Buchholz has a small chance of being much better than Lackey, of becoming an elite pitcher like Halladay or Schilling. With all the trades we turned down to keep him (especially the Johan Santana deal), it seems crazy to send him packing now.
Good points about why we needed to keep Clay. I am glad we held onto Buchholz and he will have to continue to perform next year and beyond.
Hopefully, lackey has adjusted now and we will see numbers similar to his second half. I think Beckett struggled when he first came over – if I recall alot of home runs?
Someone mentioned signing FA Cliff Lee this year would have been a better option than Lackey…some have concerns about his durability. I think the MFY will woo him. Time will tell.
At this point, I think we are all worrying about a rotation that was supposed to be young, stable, locked up for many years and dominant – instead it sputtered along apart from Lester and Buch. The worse case scenario is if Beckett, Lackey and DiceK continue to be less than inspiring then the whole strategy is a bust. All we can do is hope that next season they bounce back to norms. Of course, Dice-K’s norm is looking sad.
"Man that ball got outta here in a hurry, you know anything that travels that far oughta have a damn stewardess on it, don't you think?" - Crash Davis
Lackey wasn't bad in the second half
Look, I didn’t like the signing and I was worried about Lackey’s durability. But in fairness, while he wasn’t worth the money, he wasn’t a total washout like AJ Burnett. Lackey went deep in games, which is important (he and Lester had the highest IP/GS in the rotation).
Lackey was bad in the first half. He did rebound in the second-half, despite a losing record (which isn’t surprising because the injuries killed the Sox’ offense). Here are his splits:
pre-ASB: (113 IP) 5.4 K/9 3.66 BB/9 4.78 ERA/4.37 FIP .334 BABIP
Post-ASB: (102 IP) 7.8 K/9 2.29 BB/9 3.97 ERA/3.26 FIP .304 BABIP
League average for K/9 this year was 7.13 and league average FIP was 4.08. In short, Lackey was a below-average pitcher in first half and an above average pitcher in the second-half.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
Yeah and it's important to note
that in the first half he still averaged about 6 1/3 innings per start (The second half it went up to 6.8).
Hopefully the bullpen will be much much better next year, but the more starters we have who can go deep in games, the more rested our pen will be through the year and the more we will be able to use good relievers like Bard when they are necessary.
Your mention of the bullpen got me thinking
Some bad stats can simply be attributed to the pen. It was pretty clear that Tito had no confidence in his pen and left the starters in too long on some occasions because of this. With a better pen some of these late inning meltdowns wouldn’t have occurred because they would have been pulled properly.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
Not only would they be pulled properly
But with a better bullpen, I’d bet a lot of those inherited runners wouldn’t have scored. It’d be interesting to see those numbers for the Sox pen as a whole compared to the bullpens of the rest of the league. I’m guessing our strand rates across the pen were well below average, which definitely doesn’t help our SP’s numbers.
Regarding the starters
Sox starters led the AL in batters faced and were second in IP. They were also tied for last in CG (with the MFY and Orioles).
The heavy work load didn’t hurt. Boston’s rotation was 5th in ERA (4.17) , 1st in FIP (3.84), and 3rd in xFIP (4.21). The pen, in contrast, was the 3rd worst by ERA (4.24), dead last by FIP (4.62), and were tied for 3rd worst by xFIP (4.51).
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Oct 8, 2010 12:48 PM EDT up reply actions
well that doesn't mean it didn't hurt
the Sox were supposed to have the best rotation in the AL easily. And travben’s point about inherited runners could help explain some of the discrepency between the ERA being 5th and FIP being 1st
Thanks for looking that up DD
I probably should’ve done that myself!
And yes, wolf, my point was about the relievers not picking up the starters. Here are some numbers: LOB% for Red Sox starters this year was 69.4%, tied for 25th in the majors. Lackey’s LOB% was 69.3%. Now, that stat isn’t a be all end all, especially since part of stranding runners is the responsibility of the SP. But still, I see that and can’t help but think the bullpen didn’t do our starters many favors…
Another stat: Our inherited runners scored % for the bullpen was 30.4%, which was 17th best in the league. So not awful, but not good either. You could say our bullpen was simply average at stranding runners.
Last one: Total inherited runners for our bullpen this season was 260, tied for 7th most in the league. This is purely speculation here, but doesn’t that mean that our relievers weren’t coming into very many clean innings? And if so, does that shed any light on the “Francona leaving guys in too long” argument? Not trying to fuel any fires, but I figure it’s some interesting food for thought.
A better bullpen will help Lackey and all pitchers
Francona had to milk innings from effective starters all season. That’s the reason for all the complaining here about Francona leaving starters in too long. What the hell did he have in the bullpen? Not much.
If they can add a good, live, strikeout arm to pitch late in the game, it can take some pressure off the starters and Francona. I’m guessing that Francona would not have let Lackey go out for the ninth inning in that mid-season debacle in Toronto if he had another reliable arm out there. Bard can’t pitch every day.
+1
Lackey was left out too long for almost all of his starts. It’s because we only had two quality pen arms for most of the year and couldn’t use them every game.
"Every night I go to bed thinking about when I’m going to play again. I dream about playing at Fenway."-Ryan Westmoreland
Twitter: @BoldandBrash
I tried to look into that with my comment above
Using LOB% and inherited runners scored… I’m not sure how helpful the numbers are, but I agree that I think the reason our starters continued to be left in “too long” is because our bullpen wasn’t a better option. Especially not in innings 6-8, if you were going to use anyone but Bard.
Lackey's 2nd half
15 GS, 102 IP, 26 BB and 88 SO, 1.216 WHIP
He was a different pitcher in the second half. That coupled with the fact that he was coming off of injury leads me to give him a slight “pass” on this season.
He may be a jerk as some have stated but he can be a good pitcher
head case
He loses his composure, and then all of a sudden it is a big inning.
In fairness, it is usually himself that he gets mad at. He will give up a big hit, and start storming around the mound in frustration. Then, all of a sudden, 3 more runs are in.
Needs to control himself.
I agree,
but anyone would be mad with Hermida, Hall and Patterson behind them.
"Every night I go to bed thinking about when I’m going to play again. I dream about playing at Fenway."-Ryan Westmoreland
Twitter: @BoldandBrash
Lackey will be fine
and he’s durable. Sox fans should worry more about Beckett, who went from staff ace-to-total crap and has an injuries history, and worry about their closer Paps, who seems to have lost the movement on his pitches. His total of blown saves and losses this season unacceptable, but he hasn’t looked sharp the last couple of years. Since Tito has no guts, he wouldn’t demote him and put Bard as the closer.
I would be concerned about Dice-K’s durability, mean, has this guy pitched a full season for the Sox yet? Wake is hanging around because it doesn’t cost much to keep him. Lester and Buch, frankly, are the only two pitchers who seem to be on their game, are young and have good futures. Lackey HAS to come back strong next year or we’re in trouble.
The last few years everyone – including Theo who, recently, tinkered with the idea of a 6-man rotation until our guys started to go down early – has overstated our starting pitching.
Do what it takes – SPEND the money – and get a workhorse (so we can have ONE besides Lester) and sign Ciff Lee. Lord Have Mercy if the Yanks get him.
Then you have Lee, Beckett, Lester, Buchholz and Lackey……..and Dice-K, if you need him. and another parade when it’s over.
that's a fair assessment
I’d have to say that I wouldn’t be sad if we could get Lee. But he’s going to be very expensive.
Point:
Since Tito has no guts, he wouldn’t demote him and put Bard as the closer.
Bard was used in higher stress, need-an-out situations. Paps was called on to come in in the ninth. I think they were used properly.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
+1
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Oct 11, 2010 4:42 PM EDT up reply actions
Lackey will be fine
most players have an adjustment year before they really get there stuff in order. He seemed to get the ball down in the strike zone more at the end then the begining. Lets just hope he has a Papi adjustment not a Crisp adjustment. I think that the sox will bring Adrien Gonzalez for Beckett, Ellsbury and a hand full of Prospects Riddick, Anderson, ect. Just no on Kalish and Kelly. I think Bowden will be fine in the bullpen next season. Good By David, Jason, Mike and Adrien. The soxs will keep VMart on a 4-6 year deal about half I expect him to DH/1B. Move Youk back to his natural position. for the OF I can see them bringing in Werth on a 4 year deal letting him DH agianst lefties.
Jeffrey M Melhorn
Exactly. Their payroll is one of the lowest in the league
and their fans didn’t show up again this year when they were making a run for the playoffs while most of the year being in 1st place. Now if you said Felix Doubront, Stolmy Pimentel, and others, maybe the Padres front office might listen. But they do not want Beckett at $16.5 mil /yr with a payroll under $50 mil/yr.
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