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Around SBN: In Crunch Time, Spurs Don't Change Their Game

John Farrell To Manage Blue Jays?

The Red Sox might be out one pitching coach, as Peter Gammons has heard from three GMs that Farrell will be the new manager of the Toronto Blue Jays.

Farrell has been with the Sox since 2007, earning the trust of management in his tenure. In recent years, however, there have been growing concerns amongst the fanbase as the pitching staff's ranking has dropped from second, to fourth, to seventh, to ninth in the American League as the years have gone by. This in spite of additions such as Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, and John Lackey to the staff.

Farrell won out over a group of other candidates including Boston bench coach DeMarlo Hale.

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If it goes through

does the FO shop around the league for a replacement or promote pitching coach, Rich Sauveur from Pawtucket?

Sauveur Wiki Link

by went9 on Oct 21, 2010 9:16 PM EDT reply actions  

St Louis just signed La Russa to manage for a year plus an option year

but they have not extended Dave Duncan yet.

Back up the truck…….beep,beep,beep

by went9 on Oct 21, 2010 9:31 PM EDT reply actions  

Wait

Is Duncan currently under contract?

"Every night I go to bed thinking about when I’m going to play again. I dream about playing at Fenway."-Ryan Westmoreland
Twitter: @BoldandBrash

by BoldandBrash on Oct 21, 2010 9:35 PM EDT up reply actions  

I would piss myself

If we got Duncan. That man’s a bloody genius…the Einstein of pitching coaches I tell ya.

by Raj Ghetia on Oct 21, 2010 10:39 PM EDT up reply actions  

Duncan

Duncan has the reputation, whether it’s deserved or not, as a being great with reclamation projects (ex: Pineiro) but struggles to reach and work with youngsters (ex: Haren). If it’s true (and I’m not saying it is true, using Wainright as an example) he may not be the best fit for Boston. Regardless, unless St. Louis is done with Duncan (unlikely), he and LaRussa have tended to be a package deal, back to their Oakland days making it unlikely he’ll be leaving STL without LaRussa.

by mg050369 on Oct 22, 2010 2:06 PM EDT up reply actions  

I wouldn't mind having those two

"Every night I go to bed thinking about when I’m going to play again. I dream about playing at Fenway."-Ryan Westmoreland
Twitter: @BoldandBrash

by BoldandBrash on Oct 24, 2010 3:09 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

I think LaRussa is just terrible

at least these days.

Anyways, LaRussa is signed with the Cards and Duncan isn’t going anywhere.

by wolf9309 on Oct 24, 2010 4:53 PM EDT up reply actions  

Aww Sweet

We’ve still got Bogar.

"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.

by Rogue Nine on Oct 21, 2010 9:50 PM EDT reply actions  

Maybe they'll promote Bogar to pitching coach...

I can hear the visits to the mound now:

“Try a fastball straight down the middle Dice, he’ll never expect it…”

Wait 'til next/this year?
"Laser show. So relax."

by nuthinboutnuthin on Oct 21, 2010 11:35 PM EDT up reply actions  

He's acutely aware of shoulder issues

He’s gotta have had a torn labrum with that patented windmill move of his. Maybe he can be the solution to our perceived medical staff problem.

"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.

by Rogue Nine on Oct 22, 2010 1:38 AM EDT up reply actions  

Teets could send Bogar out for pitching changes

Right arm Pete Townsend windmill means the righty.

Left arm Pete Townsend windmill means the lefty.

Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.

@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard

by Bloggy on Oct 22, 2010 9:29 AM EDT up reply actions  

Two days ago

Link to MLBTR 10/19/19

•La Russa said that pitching coach Dave Duncan wants a multi-year contract from the club. A Cardinals official tells Goold that “the organization is not closed off to the possibility,” which is an understatement given Duncan’s wizardry at rebuilding pitchers. Duncan leaving would be a big blow to St. Louis and would hurt their efforts to sign free agent starters, such as Jake Westbrook.

by went9 on Oct 21, 2010 11:36 PM EDT reply actions  

Today in St Louis Today Sports Column

Bernie Miklasz link on Duncan

All the best to the Mr. John Farrell and his family if his selection by the Blue Jays is true.

by went9 on Oct 21, 2010 11:51 PM EDT up reply actions  

Funny, but FA Westbrook is just another example of a Duncan project.

Tommy John at the end of ‘08, Tommy John again at the end of ’09, he’s already 33 and he got $11m last year. St Louis trades for two months of him at the ’10 deadline on a Cleveland salary dump and St Louis gets 9 quality starts out of 12 Westbrook visits to the bump. Is it Duncan or Westbrook or the move to the NL?

I guess the Sox at least make the call to ask STL to talk to him but Duncan is most likely not going anywhere… so moving right along.

by went9 on Oct 22, 2010 3:49 PM EDT up reply actions  

Oh I think a lot of it is Duncan.

I’m just joking on the whole he-specializes-in-reclamation-projects angle.

by alskor on Oct 22, 2010 10:33 PM EDT up reply actions  

who will be Red Sox pitching coach?

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by bestbostonsports on Oct 22, 2010 12:03 AM EDT reply actions  

John Farrell

nobody has ever done less with more.

The certified ambassador of all things good and great, here at OTM.
DO NOT OVERPAY FOR BELTRE !!!
TRADE ELLSBURY THIS WINTER !!!
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by gizmosandy on Oct 22, 2010 7:30 AM EDT reply actions  

so true

Watch The Internet Sport Show
Read about the MLB at Total Bases
"That place was for diehard sports fans. I only follow my team when they're in the playoffs" - Homer Simpson
Join the Lacrosse community The Lacrosse Blog

by bestbostonsports on Oct 22, 2010 12:02 PM EDT up reply actions  

Not

Here’s another internal option texted from a freind in Maine who gets over to see the Sea Dogs.
Mike Cather. He’s active in the Sox organization. Anyone ever heard him interviewed? Interesting background.

Mike Cather Wiki Bio Link

Here’s a written interview that JB did before the Sox screwed him over for being just a blogger and not a newspaper reporter. JB has more passion for the Sox than most reporters do but he got the short end of the stick when the Sox made a policy change.

Link to 2008 interview Cather/Buchholz

2009 Interview link Cather/Tazawa

by went9 on Oct 22, 2010 12:47 PM EDT up reply actions  

2007 & 2008 he was considered a genius around here.

I think the truth lies somewhere in the middle… though I do think he’s one of the better pitching coaches in the game.

I think sometimes its like a NBA coach… guys stop listening and you need a new voice in there. Not sure it reflects on Farrell’s abilities at all. Might just mean we have a few meatheads on our pitching staff even.

by alskor on Oct 22, 2010 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions  

It is very hard to tell exactly what the pitching coach is influencing

Farrell has a very good insider rep, but I have no real idea what is his doing and his true failings. Buchholz and Lester developed new pitches after leaving the minors that have been effective, but that may have nothing to do with Farrell. Farrell is somehow credited with changing Beckett’s delivery in 07, but then he must also be blamed for Beckett’s ‘10 and his continued reliance on a horrible cutter. Can’t really blame him for the pen, because he had crap to work with, and despite performing below expectations, overall the Sox starters this year were actually quite good. Who knows…

by Buzzy on Oct 22, 2010 4:20 PM EDT reply actions  

Of course

Players like Ramon Ramirez and Manny Delcarmen both slowly became less-and-less effective as their time in Boston increased.

USG

by Ben Buchanan on Oct 22, 2010 4:21 PM EDT up reply actions  

MDC

I agree, while RamRam was always all over the place. It should be noted that by tRA (which I bring up because it take BB profile into account and thus perhaps a better statement about luck vs simply bad pitching than FIP is) the Sox had better starters than either TB or NY.

by Buzzy on Oct 22, 2010 4:53 PM EDT up reply actions  

tRA isn't actually necessarily better,

mostly because FIP (or xFIP, which I actually like better) does take some fly ball% into account with home runs, and line drive% tends to not be very stable.

by ThePanda on Oct 22, 2010 6:17 PM EDT up reply actions  

As far as I know, xFIP

does not take into account FB rate, it corrects for HR/FB ratio to average level. LD% as you say is a bit of grey area issue, but overall it is often still useful as a crude xBABIP estimator. In 2008 Beckett had a career high LD% (by a fair bit) and the second highest BABIP of his career. Thus, while tRA may fluctuate more than FIP, it also has a total correctof for batted ball profile.

Either way by FIP the Sox were also superior to the Rays and Yankees. The pen was putrid, but the starters were decent.

by Buzzy on Oct 22, 2010 7:23 PM EDT up reply actions  

It corrects HR rate to FB%

So it very much does take into account FB%. If it’s 13*HR and 1 HR per 10 FB, than it’s 1.3*FB

USG

by Ben Buchanan on Oct 22, 2010 8:34 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yes

you are exactly correct. Still I think the argument stands. by xFIP Sox starters were better than the Rays starters and basically the same as the Yankees starters. Thus by 2 of the 3 metrics discuss the Sox were superior, and by the 3rd basically better than the Rays and on par with the Yankees. It is really hard to make a fact based case that Farrell is responsible for the drop in pitching results as the pen was way understaffed even to start the season (same pen as 08-Saito-Wagner+declining Oki/Paps/MDC/RamRam), while the starters were basically doing a decent job and are not responsible for bad D, randomness, etc. You could make the argument that the decline in the relievers is on Farrell (and who knows) but some of these guys have either been really volatile in the careers or aging. It is not more or less rational to me to say that Farrell should be credited with Buchholz development and use of the slider and somehow that showed in his massive improvement in results (which I don’t really buy anyway either) then to say that the decline in team pitching in ’10 is on Farrell. Point being, as I said, it is really hard to know what Farrell did well and poorly…

And in other news, the “vastly superior” (in the words of the immortal Sean O) Yankees and Rays got clean out of the playoffs by a team that one one more than our poor decimated Sox and we call all sleep well at night again!

by Buzzy on Oct 23, 2010 9:58 AM EDT up reply actions  

No,

.10*13=1.3

Technically it’s at 11% actually, but eh.

USG

by Ben Buchanan on Oct 23, 2010 5:19 PM EDT up reply actions  

Good Riddance !!

The certified ambassador of all things good and great, here at OTM.
DO NOT OVERPAY FOR BELTRE !!!
TRADE ELLSBURY THIS WINTER !!!
One of the many, proud OTM'ers that cannot stand Josh Beckett.

by gizmosandy on Oct 22, 2010 6:32 PM EDT reply actions  

In other news

A Rod watching strike 3 fly by was certainly poetic justice.

"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.

by Rogue Nine on Oct 22, 2010 11:44 PM EDT reply actions  

hooraaaaaaaaaaaayyy

death to the empire!

Mathew 19:26 "With God, all things are possible"

by southman on Oct 23, 2010 6:34 AM EDT up reply actions  

Suddenly, the $173m / no playoffs

thing doesn’t hurt so much. Happy YED everyone!

by Sean O on Oct 23, 2010 12:17 AM EDT reply actions  

Farrell is the not so genius

who convinced Paps to be fastball only, I am pretty sure

that worked

not

by Frank Malzone on Oct 23, 2010 7:05 AM EDT reply actions  

and Varitek didn't help matters any.

The media asked him about Paps having secondary stuff, and he said that Paps didn’t really need it because he was a “fastball pitcher”

"Every night I go to bed thinking about when I’m going to play again. I dream about playing at Fenway."-Ryan Westmoreland
Twitter: @BoldandBrash

by BoldandBrash on Oct 23, 2010 1:36 PM EDT up reply actions  

2010, Papelbon threw the lowest % of 4seam fastballs in his career (69.8%).

.
2010, blown saves 8, losses 7, ERA 3.90, FIP 3.51, WHIP 1.27

4seamFB 69.8% (94.9mph)
sliders 8.5% (82.6)
split finger 21.7% (89.9)

2009 blown saves 3, losses 1, ERA 1.85, FIP 3.05, WHIP 1.15

4seamFB 81.4% (94.7mph)
slider 9.2% (84.1)
split finger 9.4% (89.1)

2007 blown saves 3, losses 3, ERA 1.85, FIP 2.45, WHIP 0.77, Championship Year

4seamFB 78.1% (94.3mph)
slider 6.2% (85.2)
split finger 15.7% (87.9)

There is no dought that Paps was trying to throw less fourseamers this year and was using his split finger more than ever. He didn’t throw the split for strikes, which caused him the walk more batters (28) than ever before plus he had a career high in wild pitches (4) on the splitter in the dirt. He has not lost his velocity but his horizontal and vertical movement was down from last year by about a 1/2 inch in each direction on his 4seamer.

Farrell’s philosophy is to establish the fastball first but does any other pitching coach not emphasize that? Don’t blame Papelbon’s 2010 season on Farrell. Take a look at his WHIP.

Much like alskor said above, sometimes the guys who are not the sharpest tools in the shed, need to hear a new voice ringing in their head. Let the search begin.

Pitch Type and %

Pitch Velocity and Pitch F/X Data for H and V Movement

by went9 on Oct 23, 2010 3:12 PM EDT up reply actions  

And for what it's worth...

Mariano Rivera, in his 2009 championship season, threw 93% cut fastballs and 7% 4seam fastballs. How that work out for him? Location, location, location.

2009, Mariano Rivera (39 yrs old), blown saves 2, losses 3, ERA 1.76, FIP 2.89, WHIP 0.90

100% fastballs

Pitch Type and %

by went9 on Oct 23, 2010 3:39 PM EDT up reply actions  

don’t see the correlation.

by went9 on Oct 23, 2010 7:37 PM EDT up reply actions  

Rivera is the Babe Ruth of closers.

The certified ambassador of all things good and great, here at OTM.
DO NOT OVERPAY FOR BELTRE !!!
TRADE ELLSBURY THIS WINTER !!!
One of the many, proud OTM'ers that cannot stand Josh Beckett.

by gizmosandy on Oct 23, 2010 7:45 PM EDT up reply actions  

How many guys can be that dominant by throwing only one pitch?

Paps should establish his fastball (which I believe is NOT a plus pitch), but he can’t just go FB after FB after FB.

"Every night I go to bed thinking about when I’m going to play again. I dream about playing at Fenway."-Ryan Westmoreland
Twitter: @BoldandBrash

by BoldandBrash on Oct 23, 2010 8:21 PM EDT up reply actions  

the point is Papelbon's fastball is not the same thing as Mo's cutter

a pitch that dirty and nasty can be thrown by itself, but I don’t think anyone else has a pitch that nasty.

by wolf9309 on Oct 23, 2010 10:45 PM EDT up reply actions  

exactly!

Papelbon has steadily gotten worse under John Farrell’s direction. I suspect that if he left the Red Sox and went to, say, the Cardinals, he’d immediately become an elite closer again.

by RickD on Oct 23, 2010 11:44 PM EDT up reply actions  

Well, it does in a way

The NL Central sucks. The AL East is hard. Therefore, Paps would have an easier time in a division that sucks. As for Farrell making him worse, no chance. I don’t know what his problem is, but I don’t think it’s our pitching coach that’s making him stupid.

by Sean O on Oct 24, 2010 2:14 PM EDT up reply actions  

+1

I don’t think we can really blame a coach for making a pitcher worse. The only thing we can do is possibly give credit for taking and making a project better.

"Every night I go to bed thinking about when I’m going to play again. I dream about playing at Fenway."-Ryan Westmoreland
Twitter: @BoldandBrash

by BoldandBrash on Oct 24, 2010 3:10 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

Agreed.

Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.

@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard

by Bloggy on Oct 25, 2010 3:59 PM EDT up reply actions  

javier lopez

9.26 ERA for the Sox in 2009
After getting traded to the Giants (via Pittsburgh) this year, he pitched with an 0.68 WHIP and 1.42 ERA over 27 innings.
He just won Game 6 for the Giants.
He’s going to the World Series.
There are countless examples like this. Pitchers who have inexplicably gotten worse over the past few years. Pitchers who are suddenly terrific when they leave the Red Sox.
I just don’t think Farrell brings much to the job.

by RickD on Oct 23, 2010 11:48 PM EDT reply actions  

his best year up until this year was also under Farrell

some people just have bad years. And it’s not like he was on the Sox for all of 2009, those numbers were over 14 appearances.

I don’t think there are countless examples of this.

by wolf9309 on Oct 23, 2010 11:53 PM EDT up reply actions  

Similar to what I said above

The NL West kinda sucks. the NL in general kinda sucks. The AL East is brutally difficult.

by Sean O on Oct 24, 2010 2:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

The NL West also has two really big ballparks, and Lopez happened to play half his games in one of them.

If I was your math homework I'd be really hard and you'd be doing me on your desk.
I'm a 7 WAR player in bed.

by TheLoneDavid on Oct 24, 2010 4:12 PM EDT up reply actions  

Hey, remember when Lopez was in to pitch to the LHB

and walked him on 4 pitches?
And ball 4 was in the dirt…4 feet behind him????

I don’t think that was John Farrell’s fault.

Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.

@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard

by Bloggy on Oct 25, 2010 4:01 PM EDT up reply actions  

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