Quantifying what the injuries cost the Red Sox - Projo

Brian MacPherson at the Projo did the analysis I've been meaning to do and looked at the lost wins from the injuries of Ellsbury, Youkilis, and Pedroia this year in relation to WAR. Summary: these injuries cost the Red Sox 4 1/2 wins. Not enough to make up the difference in the pennant/wild card races. Now toss Beckett in there and maybe things swing.

over 1 year ago tdaloisio 4 comments 0 recs |

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I've done this analysis using wOBA

And came up with 8-ish wins lost due to offense alone. They also ignore Cameron’s nagging injury, which allowed him to play albeit ineffectively. They also ignore that during the time that VMart was injured he was replaced by guys that you can probably count their combined hits on two hands, they hurt the team bad, I would guess all posted negative WARs.

"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.

by Rogue Nine on Oct 15, 2010 8:23 PM EDT reply actions

In addition

Even if it was just 4.5 wins, if they were up 4.5 wins, there would have been more competitive lineups at the end of the year. If they had been, say, 3 of those wins up at the trade deadline, you can bet that there would have been a significant move as well. Much more costly than that analysis says.

by wolf9309 on Oct 15, 2010 9:45 PM EDT reply actions

also, the Martinez injury was not insignificant

as it forced us to play Ca$hmoney as our starter. Cash had a -.6 value for the year (mostly with the red sox, where he had an OPS+ of 3. Yes, 3. Where the average is 100, he had a 3). So I would say that actually missing Martinez that time probably cost us about a half win (a bit more when you count that he wasn’t 100% when he came back) and playing Cash I would say cost us about another half win.

by wolf9309 on Oct 15, 2010 9:53 PM EDT up reply actions