The Case For (And Against) Chris Iannetta On The Red Sox
by Ben Buchanan on Oct 15, 2010 12:36 PM EDT
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PrintAsk any Red Sox fan what the offseason priority is this year, and there's a good chance you'll get one of two answers:
"We gotta bring back Beltre!"
or
"We gotta bring back V-Mart!"
Adrian Beltre is, for the most part, a matter of availability. We look at the free agent market for third basemen, and we see...well, not much at all. The trade market doesn't necessarily offer many outs either.
For catchers, though, that's another story.
For a few weeks now, I and a few others have been putting the name of Chris Iannetta out there at just-about-every opportunity. It's not so farfetched a possibility --the Rockies were talking with the Sox about him just this summer, after all. The Sox need a catcher, the Rockies have a catcher they're not using, seems like a match made in, well, Colorado. Or maybe Boston.
So why are we so big on Mr. Iannetta? Are we crazy? Let's examine the Iannetta issue further.
The real Victor Martinez
First off, let's put a base on what the Sox are actually looking at if they were to sign Victor Martinez. Victor is, after all, what he is: a good bat who's not an absolute disaster behind the plate. He can be expected to put up a .360-.370 wOBA on a yearly basis (or about a .850 OPS). From a catcher, this is good. From a first baseman or DH, this is unimpressive. Let's be perfectly clear: the Red Sox are not looking for an average offensive first baseman or DH, they are looking for a plus offensive catcher.
Thanks to the fact that Martinez has been able to play primarily catcher, he's managed to keep his WAR at four or more for most of his career. Of course, this is partially because there's not much in the way of catching defense metrics. What there is grades Martinez out as generally below-average. He's alright at blocking pitches, but horrible at framing pitches and controlling the running game.
Iannetta is a lot like Martinez
Do his numbers look as good on the surface? No. At least not recently. In 350 plate appearances in 2009, Iannetta hit .228/.344/.460. Good not great. Then in 2010, he managed only a .197/.318/.383 line. Far below the Victor baseline.
The caveat, as I'm sure most of you have heard before, is his BABIP. At .212 in 2010 compared to a career .271, that is almost unfathomably low. Chris Dutton's xBABIP calculator actually puts him at a .320 figure given his batted ball profile. That's a pretty huge discrepancy. If we accept that this is where his BABIP should be, or even just around his career .271 (though it, too, is pulled well down by having quite-so ridiculous luck so early in his career), we have one real example of what Iannetta can be: 2008, the year his power emerged, allowing him to hit .264/.390/.505.
If I gave you that line alone, or even a .250/.370/.480 if you think he may have been lucky that year, suddenly losing Victor Martinez doesn't seem so bad.
But how is he behind the plate? To be fair to Martinez, Iannetta is just as bad--possibly even worse. He's not particularly good at blocking, can't catch runners, and can't frame pitches. But if we were willing to stick with Victor's defense, we should be willing to deal with Iannetta's.
The catch is in the cost
There's what gives Iannetta the edge. While we don't necessarily know if the Rockies are shopping Iannetta, we do know that if they are, they are likely still looking for "premium talent" like before. Signed at two-years and low-money, though, Iannetta is incredibly affordable budget wise. What would we have to pay for Victor Martinez? Four years of $13 million or more? How much is this "premium talent" worth to us, especially when we consider that any team signing Martinez will have to give us a pair of draft picks?
Consider, for instance, the very possible scenario of the catcher swap (the Rockies seem to be deciding between Olivo and Martinez more than Olivo and Iannetta at this point, actually). The Red Sox gain Iannetta, the 20th overall draft pick, a compensation pick, and $10 million in salary room. The Rockies gain Martinez, and a package of good prospects (though presumably not Kalish or Kelly). I know that the draft and payroll budget are separate, but even if we assume two big, big bonuses (Ranaudo level), the Sox are making out pretty well financially without taking much of a hit talent-wise (if any hit at all). Iannetta also can either be considered a long-term answer, or a very good bridge (pardon the word choice) into one of our various catching prospects.
Victor has been great for the Red Sox in the year-and-a-half he's been here. There's no denying that. But he's going to be in demand this offseason. He's the big-name free agent acquisition that just about any team in the game would love to announce to the press. But often the biggest names are not the best choices. Iannetta can bring the same level of offense to Boston as Martinez did--possibly even better--at a much lower price. No, this isn't about saving the Red Sox money, but it is about freeing that money up. What if the question is Martinez and Iannetta plus Scott Downs? Iannetta and bringing back Beltre? Iannetta and signing Crawford or Werth? It seems like a lot better deal then.
What ever happened to pitching and defense?
The other major consideration I can see is if the Red Sox look to take a new direction, and consider going the defense-first rout for a catcher. Catching defense being the enigma it is, this could be a fairly significant risk. They could pick up a catcher who scouts well defensively, but ends up being just another case of lying eyes, or they could pick up one who grades out well on the limited metrics available (and I'm sure the Red Sox have their own) only to discover that said metrics are drastically underdeveloped or inaccurate. Theo has never been reticent to lead the way on statistical analysis, but given the already tense fan relationship after a down-year, bringing in a catcher with bad numbers who doesn't project to improve them over the course of a season might be asking too much.
If that's the case, than Iannetta seems to be the best answer after all. Hopefully, he'll be availabe.
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OK, so not so much against, but eh.
I did find another interesting option during my “research” who has been suspiciously obscure. More on him tomorrow, probably, albeit in much shorter form.
USG
Acceptable if...
The most pertinent point isn’t Iannetta or any specific catcher vs. Martinez, it’s Iannetta or anyone else + the assets acquired for the team with the difference in dollars between the two vs. Martinez. Looking long term, in two years with Iannetta or someone on a short contract behind us, and the knowledge of what is to be with Salty, we may look back on the decision to part with Victor (should that happen) in a much more favorable light.
I would be interested to know (and don’t off hand as I write this) when the various “A” catchers come avail via free agency and/or what the pipeline for the next Weiters or Posey looks like via the draft.
That all said, depending on the package it would take to get Iannetta, I might rather invest in a short term free agent with Tek back on a one year short dollar deal than spend premium talent on a potentially flawed player.
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Honestly, I'd be really happy if Victor re-signed
But I’d certainly rather go for Ianetta if it meant we could re-sign Beltre, who I see as a much bigger priority. While I realize his peripherals demonstrate that he should be hitting very well, his numbers across the board just vary so much that I don’t know what to think of him (also I’ve never actually watched him play, so I’ve got a pretty limited view there). His profile looks to me like him and the monster would get along fine- a lot of fly balls to left field, so the fact that he’s always been much moe successful at Coors doesn’t worry me a lot. He looks to have a very good eye, which seems surprisingly hard to find in a catcher.
Him and Salty as our only options presents an interestingly risky scenario. Huge ceiling, but could produce absolutely nothing. If we did trade for him, I’d probably feel more comfortable starting Salty in AAA and signing someone who is at least a known quantity, like Barajas to a one year deal to split time with him- then there’d certainly be some home to trade him to if Salty was successful in AAA and Ianetta was hitting in the majors.
My rule: No B's, K's, L's, or R's
I’d say that if the Rockies wanted to trade Iannetta, they could get one or maybe two prospects or current players, but no one whose last name started with K, L, or R. So no Kelly, Kalish, Lavarnaway, Lin, Lowrie, Ranaudo, Reddick, or Rizzo.
And oh, no Bard or Britton either.
Fenway: "An alternate and better universe, disguised as a ballpark." --Thomas Boswell
that's a pretty restrictive list you have there
hard to get good players without giving up good prospects.
Indeed. I'd expect the off-limits to be Lowrie, Kelly, Kalish, and Ranaudo.
Others are available. Yes, even Rizzo.
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Oct 15, 2010 3:16 PM EDT up reply actions
I suppose if I had to
I could part with Lin, Reddick, Lavarnaway, and Britton. But the others must stay. Hands off the Rizzo.
Although it’s probably a safe bet that any pitcher that grades out at the Buchholz-Lester level ain’t goin’ nowhere in no trade.
Fenway: "An alternate and better universe, disguised as a ballpark." --Thomas Boswell
I make up for restriction with bundling
You get more than one of the others. We’ll even throw in a bullpen dud to sweeten the deal.
Fenway: "An alternate and better universe, disguised as a ballpark." --Thomas Boswell
I would trade one of the OF'ers for it.
It would also make a Crawford or Werth signing more reasonable and need base rather than a luxury.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
I don't fully understand this catcher swap thing.
I was thinking about it a couple days ago, and I see some problems
1. We would be outbidding Col for Vic to then trade him. If we outbid Col, then I don’t know if they can pay Vic once we trade him.
2. Vic’c contract would have to not have a no-trade.
3. Is this like a prearranged thing? If so, I’m not sure Vic would want to play in Col. If we’re signing him to an affordable price for Col, then he may be able to get more years and money from another team. Therefore, he may not “resign” with us.
"Every night I go to bed thinking about when I’m going to play again. I dream about playing at Fenway."-Ryan Westmoreland
Twitter: @BoldandBrash
I'm confused by your confusion...
I though Victor was a free agent and that we’d be letting him go (potentially to Colorado, or to Detroit or whomever) in exchange for the two draft picks and trading for Iannetta with pieces from our farm…
Wait 'til next/this year?
"Laser show. So relax."
by nuthinboutnuthin on Oct 15, 2010 1:18 PM EDT up reply actions
My confusion is your confusion.
He IS a FA. I think the only benefit of the deal is that it guarantees that Col gets their main man. It would pretty much have to be agreed upon before contracts are signed. As I pointed out above, Col may not be able to accept a contract that would land Vic, so we may have to pay part of his contract. Then the deal may not be worth it. I think the only reason this could happen is that Col needs Vic to be able to trade Iannetta, but then there are the problems that I listed above.
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Twitter: @BoldandBrash
by BoldandBrash on Oct 15, 2010 1:25 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Well, at any rate...
… we’re confused.
Uh.
Yankees suck?
Wait 'til next/this year?
"Laser show. So relax."
by nuthinboutnuthin on Oct 15, 2010 1:41 PM EDT up reply actions
this would just involve letting Vic go
for one thing sign and trades aren’t really doable- free agents signed can’t be traded until… I want to say june 15th? Maybe it’s mid-May… can’t remember for sure.
They would just be trading Ianetta because they could get a decent return for him and like Olivo. There would certainly be other competition. Not really a catcher swap, just they trade us Ianetta. They would also be trying to sign Martinez as a platoon for Helton and part time catcher.
Yep
I mean a catcher swap just as in Victor is their catcher in 2011, Iannetta is ours. Not a matter of trading both in one deal.
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Oct 15, 2010 3:17 PM EDT up reply actions
You'd have to think
That there is a lot of risk for both sides in “planning” for this. Just because we let Martinez walk doesn’t mean COL is going to sign him. And even if they do, there’s no guarantee that they would trade us Iannetta.
Just pointing out that plenty of the this plan’s “ifs” could go wrong at any point. And if they do, then we’re back to square one, looking at the John Buck types, only now there are two legit C options (Martinez, Iannetta) off the table.
IF they trade Ianetta
It’s because they like Olivo as their main catcher. Remember, they’re interested in Martinez as a part-time first baseman, part-time catcher, not as their everyday first baseman.
then they are not likely to get him
because he is looking (rightfully) for catcher money. And someone will pay him for it.
I don't think there's as much risk as you suggest.
The Rockies just don’t like Iannetta. I don’t know if they buy into his BABIP or if it’s the defense, but they don’t.
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Oct 15, 2010 5:52 PM EDT up reply actions
Agreed, which is why we probably wouldn't have to give up a Rizzo to get him.
Salty is one C for ‘11. ’tek is probably no better than Plan B in the event we totally can’t get any C of decent quality for proper value.
I think V-Mart is gone because those two 1st round draft picks and a huge money savings will be considered decent compensation. We can make up his offense by spending the saved money at other positions.
Ianetta looks like a decent choice and I think will come cheaper than what you’re figuring. It’s easier for COL to trade him during the off-season than during.
I think by "risk"
I meant more in letting VMart go. Unless the Sox already have a deal in place for Iannetta, it is a risk to let Martinez walk, because if we get neither of them, we’re kind of stuck. Some people might be okay with Salty and Varitek as our C next year, but I think way too much could go wrong there.
My point is, don’t just let Martinez go while assuming that you can get Iannetta. That trade with COL makes a lot of sense to me, but trades are never a sure thing.
yeah I always assume that at this point in the year, the GMs are all already talking
trying to figure out how likely they’ll be to make something work out. There are very few other appealing options if this didn’t work out.
so ... they don't like him ... but we should?
I don’t have anything against Iannetta – his numbers are too chaotic to really gauge him without deeper study on my part and I haven’t really seen him play much.
But it makes me hesitate when you say that the Rockies “just don’t like” him. I feel compelled to ask, “Why?”
I feel compelled to answer "Because they're buying into his BABIP."
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Oct 20, 2010 1:13 PM EDT up reply actions
That's fair.
But jeeze – after doing a bit more research – the guy has just crushed the minors (6 seasons in the minors with a .937 OPS overall. That should definitely have projected better into the majors than his current .789 (which truthfully, isn’t THAT bad. The difference betwen an .850 OPS and a .789 OPS on a season is really just a handful of extra base hits bouncing off a wall versus getting caught at the warning track.).
You’d think that the Rockies would be aware of his low BABIP and give a little more cred to his long term numbers.
I’m warming up to him, but I’m still leary of giving up prospects and the relatively sure thing of V-Mart.
I've said this a billion times
Sign Victor, let Beltre walk. You are just going to overpay for him to be a roadblock for free agents and prospects.
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by bestbostonsports on Oct 15, 2010 1:27 PM EDT reply actions
So Vic won't be overpaid or a roadblock to FAs and prospects?
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by BoldandBrash on Oct 15, 2010 1:57 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I'm not sure...
…who precisely Beltre is going to roadblock as a prospect in the next four years or so. Maybe Lowrie by-way-of Iglesias?
Wait 'til next/this year?
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by nuthinboutnuthin on Oct 15, 2010 2:49 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah,
and that’s if Iglesias can ever be better than Lowrie. We have some prospects who could potentially be MLB starters, but it’s not worth rearranging the big club because of it.
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by BoldandBrash on Oct 15, 2010 4:15 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
No
He blocks Rizzo and Anderson. If Beltre were at 3B, Youk would still be playing 1B.
Victor is still a good hitter so who cares who he blocks. I doubt Beltre will have a season like this again.
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by bestbostonsports on Oct 15, 2010 4:40 PM EDT up reply actions
So in 2-3 years
we’re gonna move Youk across the diamond to accommodate a youngster? If Rizzo and Anderson want to play pro ball, then they better get traded or play DH. Plus, Beltre is still a good defender, so it doesn’t matter who he blocks.
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by BoldandBrash on Oct 15, 2010 4:45 PM EDT up reply actions
It may be 1-2 years, but you get the point.
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by BoldandBrash on Oct 15, 2010 4:46 PM EDT up reply actions
Beltre was not great defending this year, was he?
Why sign a guy who just had a career year (other than 2004) at age 31? His last career year was a contract year also. It would be a contract disaster,
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by bestbostonsports on Oct 15, 2010 4:47 PM EDT up reply actions
Beltre made a bunch of errors.
But other than that, to my eyes, was still a much better defender at third than Youk ever was. Or Lowell ever was. Etc.
Yep
By UZR (and UZR 150), Beltre was the 4th best defensive 3B in baseball (2nd best in the AL).
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Oct 16, 2010 12:04 AM EDT up reply actions
He was great defending this year.
I agree that signing him could be a disaster, but that’s a different question than rearranging the MLB club because of 1B prospects. Plus, it’s not like Vic can’t be a disaster. He’s not good on defense already. Just think if he declines even a little bit in that AND in the bat.
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by BoldandBrash on Oct 15, 2010 4:49 PM EDT up reply actions
I think Victor improved on defense as the year went on
I don’t know…. I’m sure I wouldn’t be pissed if they kept Beltre, but there just seems to be a ton of red flags.
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by bestbostonsports on Oct 15, 2010 4:50 PM EDT up reply actions
I thought Vic improved on defense as the year progressed as well.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
theo said he improved
it seemed as if theo was pleased about the second half progression
still comes down to a business decision
This is just my opinion,
but I thought it was horrible, then got better, then went back to being horrible at the end of the year.
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by BoldandBrash on Oct 15, 2010 4:57 PM EDT up reply actions
But
that might have to do with splitting time with Tek and Salty at the end of the year.
He only did awful when he was out of his rythem it seemed.
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by bestbostonsports on Oct 15, 2010 4:58 PM EDT up reply actions
I think Beltre is going to be at least as good a hitter as Anderson
And Rizzo, who knows? Beltre should continue to be a good defensive third baseman, and doesn’t need to hit anywhere close to as well to still be a perfectly good offensive one. If Rizzo looks ready, no one is blocked as long as there is a DH spot on the team and no one signed on a long term deal to fill it.
Beltre is better than Anderson
I don’t like Anderson at all, but everyone else seems to so I used it to get my point across.
I think Rizzo will be very good, he seems to have all the tools.
And do you want Rizzo at DH? He is a terrific defender, better than Beltre.
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by bestbostonsports on Oct 15, 2010 4:48 PM EDT up reply actions
Beltre and Rizzo wouldn't be playing the same position
Beltre is a much better defender at third than Youk. I haven’t seen Rizzo enough to comment on his defense (I’ve heard its very good). If it’s better than Youk’s at first, Youk can DH. If it’s not, Rizzo can DH.
Rizzo's defense is as good or better
Trust me, I’ve seen him a lot.
Do you really think beltre will be this good for four years? Do not be fooled by the contract year.
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by bestbostonsports on Oct 15, 2010 4:51 PM EDT up reply actions
no, like I said:
Beltre should continue to be a good defensive third baseman, and doesn’t need to hit anywhere close to as well to still be a perfectly good offensive one.
He doesn’t need to be this good to still be the best available choice at third.
Would you sign him to a four year deal?
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by bestbostonsports on Oct 15, 2010 4:53 PM EDT up reply actions
yeah absolutely
of course it depends on the cost per year. I’d sign him to a 3 year deal for much more per year than I would for a 4 year deal.
So
sign a 31 year old with only two good years that are both contract years to a four year deal.
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by bestbostonsports on Oct 15, 2010 4:57 PM EDT up reply actions
yes,
because he doesn’t need to play like he did in the contract years to provide a lot of value and live up to the contract.
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by BoldandBrash on Oct 15, 2010 4:58 PM EDT up reply actions
How were his other years with Seattle?
.268, .276, .266, and .265 BAA and I dont know his war but it couldnt have been good.
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by bestbostonsports on Oct 15, 2010 5:01 PM EDT up reply actions
WAR in Seattle (pitchers park)
2.5, 4.9, 3.0, 4.0, 2.5
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by BoldandBrash on Oct 15, 2010 5:02 PM EDT up reply actions
Oh, ok
thanks.
What was his war this year?
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by bestbostonsports on Oct 15, 2010 5:03 PM EDT up reply actions
7.1
which is ridiculous, so he doesn’t need to do that every year, unless we’re paying him like 25mil/year. I agree to a point that a four year deal is risky, but I’d rather give it to him than Vic.
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by BoldandBrash on Oct 15, 2010 5:04 PM EDT up reply actions
Yikes that is an awesome WAR
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by bestbostonsports on Oct 15, 2010 5:05 PM EDT up reply actions
no you're missing a point
he doesn’t just have 2 good years, he has two absolutely exceptional years and a lot of good years. The other years he’s still been one of the better third basemen in the MLB (and has even hit very well outside of Safeco). I’m not saying re-sign him because I expect him to put up the number he put up this year. I’m saying re-sign him because he is proven to be the best third baseman we can get.
+1
At worst he was about 2.5 WAR. And he was hitting in Safeco at that time.
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by BoldandBrash on Oct 15, 2010 5:00 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm not saying I'm completely right
It’s just my opinion, it very well could be wrong, but it could be right.
I would love a two year deal. I just dont like handing out four year deals unless its an absolute superstar.
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by bestbostonsports on Oct 15, 2010 5:02 PM EDT up reply actions
Also
His last year in Seattle was one of his worst, but he was dealing with a shoulder injury all season. Worth keeping in mind.
Beltre's WAR
Last Year was 7.1, good for 5th in the Majors. So no one expects him to reproduce that. That being said his 3.5-4.0 ish WAR is worth the money he will make.
Then I ask, do you want Youk to DH or play third?
He’s probably a better defender than Rizzo, and he’ll be mediocre at third.
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by BoldandBrash on Oct 15, 2010 4:50 PM EDT up reply actions
Youk's looked fine at 3B every time I've seen him
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by bestbostonsports on Oct 15, 2010 4:51 PM EDT up reply actions
What year was that?
and by the time Rizzo will be ready, Youk maybe 31, 32, or even 33 years old. THAT is when he probably won’t be able to play 3B.
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by BoldandBrash on Oct 15, 2010 4:52 PM EDT up reply actions
Trust me
I’d love Beltre on a two year deal
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by bestbostonsports on Oct 15, 2010 4:56 PM EDT up reply actions
Youk is reaching an age where switching him to 3B
May sound like a good idea because it allows us to start Rizzo or Lars at 1B as well. But truth is he’s at an age where some 3B start becoming more like 1B. As with VMart there is no empirical law that prohibits him from playing 3B, but something that needs to be thought about. Rizzo or Lars can break through pretty easily regardless of who’s at 3B or 1B, the DH spot is going to be open in a year or two with the parting or Ortiz.
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Youk is only 30
and perfectly capable of 3B.
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by bestbostonsports on Oct 15, 2010 4:47 PM EDT up reply actions
He's average.
Not a great arm, OK range.
But at 1st he’s masterful.
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Oct 15, 2010 5:58 PM EDT up reply actions
+1
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Oct 16, 2010 12:06 AM EDT up reply actions
Youk's a bit older than 30.
He’ll turn 32 at spring training this year.
Born 3/15/79, only three months younger than Victor.
Oh really?
I didn’t know that
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by bestbostonsports on Oct 16, 2010 2:02 PM EDT up reply actions
I wasn't aware...
..we were still engaged with the fiction (albeit a historical fiction) that Youk has a future at third.
Wait 'til next/this year?
"Laser show. So relax."
by nuthinboutnuthin on Oct 15, 2010 4:47 PM EDT up reply actions
Blocks?
Is anybody here upset that Youk is “blocking” Lars Anderson? What are you talking about? The Sox shouldn’t sign top FA’s becasue they “block” some kid in the minors? Are you kiddng?
yup for sure
Worst case, we end up calling up the kids a few years later and have them under team control through their entire prime. It’s not like we’re going to let someone take Rizzo in the Rule 5.
Thats only part of it
I just don’t like signing a 31 year old with two good years and an injury prone history to a four year deal.
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by bestbostonsports on Oct 15, 2010 4:58 PM EDT up reply actions
Who are you talking about?
Victor? Yes, he is 31. Not really ancient. He did get a ball off his thumb and miss a few weeks last season, so it’s not like he is pulling a muscle every other week. He did miss most of the 2008 season with Cleveland, I forget why. But he has a pretty good record of durability and has had about 6 good years. Just looks like a real solid player to me.
I was talking about Beltre
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by bestbostonsports on Oct 15, 2010 5:10 PM EDT up reply actions
Beltre has an injury history?
Didn’t he lose a nut and keep playing or something?
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
He was out for like six weeks because of that
had surgery
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by bestbostonsports on Oct 15, 2010 5:16 PM EDT up reply actions
If I lost a nut
I’d demand surgery my OWN self!
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
Six weeks for a fractured testicle
Sounds like a warhorse to me. Including the lost-nut season, Beltre averaged 143 games per 162 game season in Seattle. Not including that season, 154 – which is exactly in line with what he played this year.
Wait 'til next/this year?
"Laser show. So relax."
by nuthinboutnuthin on Oct 15, 2010 5:20 PM EDT up reply actions
Pardon, 151 per year w/o 2009
Wait 'til next/this year?
"Laser show. So relax."
by nuthinboutnuthin on Oct 15, 2010 5:25 PM EDT up reply actions
The Story
Beltre’s decision not to wear a cup despite playing third base has been well-documented.8 This really came back to hurt him on August 13, 2009, when he took a hard ground ball to the crotch.
Although he stayed in for the remainder of the 14 inning victory, he was put on the DL after suffering bleeding in one of his testicles.
He took a grounder to the onions that caused bleeding and finished the game? Into extra innings???? I’m not going to call this guy “injury prone”. Not to his face, anyhow.
That’s a tough Martha Focher right there.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
This is exactly why I want them both back.
GRADE A ENTERTAINMENT, PEOPLE!
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
+1
Imagine if Taverez was around with those two
"Man that ball got outta here in a hurry, you know anything that travels that far oughta have a damn stewardess on it, don't you think?" - Crash Davis
@ bestbostonsports
I think you just dislike Beltre for no real performance related issue. Some very flawed arguments in my eyes. First his defense is not really good, while he is infact proven year in and year out to be an elite defender at third. Then you argue well he is injury prone while he has not played 140 games only once in the last 8 years and that was because he had a fractured testicle after he got hit by a sharp grounder. Its not like he pulled a harmstring or shoulder/knee/back related stuff.
by German Red Sox Fan on Oct 16, 2010 9:26 AM EDT up reply actions
I think her main concern
Is Rizzo/Lars. However, either can easily break in at DH since we won’t be signing Papi very long term, maybe 1-3 years if we do, and then move into the diamond from there.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
I really like Beltre
and would love to resign him. I am just wary of a four year deal.
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by bestbostonsports on Oct 16, 2010 1:58 PM EDT up reply actions
Are you wary of a 4 year deal for Vic?
because it seems like you have no worries about that. I feel that Vic is a greater risk than Beltre. You may think Vic will be able to catch for the duration of his contract, but you can’t deny that his longevity at the position is in question. I really don’t want freaking Posada behind the plate for years 3 and 4.
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by BoldandBrash on Oct 16, 2010 2:33 PM EDT up reply actions
No
Victor will not catch the duration, but at the end of two years he can split time between 1B and DH.
What if Beltre falls off? There is more evidence he will than won’t.
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by bestbostonsports on Oct 16, 2010 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions
There are better, cheaper options than Victor though.
Who would you take over Beltre? Lowrie? Who plays Short after next year? ARam? He’s falling apart faster than Beltre. Inge? Don’t get me started.
If I was your math homework I'd be really hard and you'd be doing me on your desk.
I'm a 7 WAR player in bed.
by TheLoneDavid on Oct 16, 2010 2:52 PM EDT up reply actions
No
I like Lowrie as a SS. If there are no other options at 3B, so be it.
I like Youk at third, and maybe just patchi it up with Pena for one season. The 1B market is better next year with Gonzalez and Fielder, plus Rizzo or Anderson could be ready.
And who would play SS? Scutaro.
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by bestbostonsports on Oct 16, 2010 2:54 PM EDT up reply actions
I said "After next year" as in 2012 on.
Pena isn’t a major league caliber player anymore, and signing AGon or Fielder just enhances the problem. We’re better off patching the holes we have with Beltre and our homegrown guys rather than going big money for a worse 1B than we already have.
If I was your math homework I'd be really hard and you'd be doing me on your desk.
I'm a 7 WAR player in bed.
by TheLoneDavid on Oct 16, 2010 2:57 PM EDT up reply actions
But Beltre will be here four years
do you really want that?
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by bestbostonsports on Oct 16, 2010 2:58 PM EDT up reply actions
Yes, yes I do.
Beltre is not Mike Lowell, barring a freak injury he’s going to continue to provide great defense with an adequate bat. Keep in mind the places he used to play, I’m not saying he’s going to hit .330 with 30 home runs every year for us, but I could see .275 and 20 a year, which is more than acceptable.
If I was your math homework I'd be really hard and you'd be doing me on your desk.
I'm a 7 WAR player in bed.
by TheLoneDavid on Oct 16, 2010 3:00 PM EDT up reply actions
What were your origanal thoughts when they signed Beltre?
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by bestbostonsports on Oct 16, 2010 3:02 PM EDT up reply actions
I loved it.
I didn’t expect him to be what he was, but the dude broke his testicles last year. I was expecting 2008 Beltre.
If I was your math homework I'd be really hard and you'd be doing me on your desk.
I'm a 7 WAR player in bed.
by TheLoneDavid on Oct 16, 2010 3:03 PM EDT up reply actions
Beltre "falling off"
Is still a 4-5 WAR player. I’ll take it. He isn’t an injury threat, to himself anyway.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
I;d love him for two or even three years
four seems like a lot
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by bestbostonsports on Oct 16, 2010 2:58 PM EDT up reply actions
Fenway plays into how good he does.
He didn’t do well in Safeco a pitchers park in his expiring time there.
Individuals don't win Championships, Teams do.
Chase for 28
"Boos are compliments" - Alex Rodriguez
Get Off My Mound
Not to mention in his last year there he had broken balls.
That’s definitely going to affect his performance. Healthy, in Fenway, he’s going to be a doubles machine.
If I was your math homework I'd be really hard and you'd be doing me on your desk.
I'm a 7 WAR player in bed.
by TheLoneDavid on Oct 16, 2010 3:01 PM EDT up reply actions
I would love to agree with that
But Beltre had better offensive numbers on the road.
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by bestbostonsports on Oct 16, 2010 3:01 PM EDT up reply actions
and he's always consistently been much better on the road than at safeco
so we can assume his general offensive performance is well above what he did at Safeco
Splitting time between 1B and DH is NOT Ok,
unless the contract is frontloaded with catcher money and the back is loaded with utility player money. Vic is a below average 1B, so we aren’t moving Youk anywhere, and he’s a good but not great hitter. So ha may be able to do OK at DH, but he won’t be worth it if he’s getting the catcher money. At least Beltre should be able to play his position for the duration, and what if Vic falls off? He’s not getting any younger, and neither is Beltre. I’m worried about both, but based on your criteria, I just don’t understand how you can’t be worried about Vic.
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by BoldandBrash on Oct 16, 2010 3:28 PM EDT up reply actions
The goal is to win now.
Why would the Sox ever avoid a good FA becasue they have a kid in AA? You do realize the goal is to put the best team on the field every year, not to see if you can promote every prospect to the ML team, right?
I know
But how is the team better when Beltre is not producing or injured?
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by bestbostonsports on Oct 15, 2010 4:59 PM EDT up reply actions
that smacks of straw man
He has no history of being injured other than the ball-in-the-onions incident and the shoulder injury. And his year-over-year production, when you include defensive value, is actually very good and consistent. Don’t be fooled by the low SafeCo offensive numbers. Even while there, his road offense was solid and his defense everywhere was exceptional.
So your question arbitrarily includes ‘Beltre’ in it. It could be rephrased :
“But how is the team better when Youkilis is not producing or injured?”
“But how is the team better when Pedroia is not producing or injured?”
“But how is the team better when V-Mart is not producing or injured?”
“But how is the team better when is not producing or injured?”
I think this year answered that question for a few names ….
The only consideration
Is if they should pay a bunch for a guy who could be replaced at that position by a better player within a year or two.
That’s why Victor scares me. People talk about how he could just shift over to 1B/DH if he can’t stick at catcher after a few years (if, not when, to stave off that argument). But his bat doesn’t play at 1B/DH when we’ve got a better replacement on the cheap.
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Oct 15, 2010 6:05 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
my only response is I don't believe there is evidence that he would need to shift
Victor has no record of wearing down. If anything his career shows that he is extremely durable. In most seasons, he has done better in second halves than in firsts.
He also has relatively few professional games at catcher for his age because he switched to the position late – while in the minors. He has only one season’s worth of pro games at C than Joe Mauer.
I see no reason to believe that Victor could not be at least his typical average defensive catcher self for the duration of a 4 year contract. In fact more experience will likely improve his defense. And no evidence that his offense will decline so much that he isn’t still way, way above average on offense for a catcher.
I’m not saying 100% that letting V-Mart walk and trading for Iannetta wouldn’t be the better move. It would free up cash that could be applied to Beltre or elsewhere (Cliff Lee, anyone?). But it will also cost us prospects – who could potentially be traded elsewhere if not utilized outright.
But I don’t think there is evidence to think that we shouldn’t expect V-Mart to be able to be predominately a catcher for the next 4 years. The only question is how much he will cost.
Theo obviously has a lot to think about.
This year, if any ever did, showed very very clearly just how valuable it is to have plus offense coming out of the catcher position. Defense at catcher is, imho, overrated. Yes some catchers are better than others. But the marginal defensive value between a ‘good’ defensive catcher and a ‘bad’ defensive catcher is in my opinion tiny compared to the difference in value between a .840 OPS catcher and a .640 OPS catcher.
Theo needs to be very careful here – we do not want to end up with a black-hole automatic out in our lineup again. In the AL East, it is vital to have production from all 9 slots in the batting order.
The framing metric actually suggests that a catcher's ability to gain strikes for his pitcher
Could be worth 6+ wins above replacement per year (and, between the best and worst, a range of 13 wins), making it by FAR the most important defensive position in the game and, actually, almost equivalent to the “quarterback” role in the NFL as potentially making or breaking a team.
Now, I personally DON’T quite buy these results. I think they’re too massive, and would need more evidence of pitchers improving with catcher X and sucking with catcher Y. But I still think there’s some very real merit in the idea that catcher defense is a very significant part of the game and, I’d imagine, if anything, underrated.
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Oct 20, 2010 2:16 PM EDT up reply actions
I just don't think that has yet to be shown to be very real.
The problem is that catchers can catch both crappy and great pitchers and then different catchers catch the same crappy and great pitchers and … SURPRISE – the pitchers remain crappy or great.
I am ready to be shown different, but my gut tells me that the defensive value of the vase majority of catchers is generally going to end up within the noise of average. One guy may be great at framing. Another may be better at fielding pop ups behind the plate. Another may be great at pouncing on the dribblers and bunts. Another at signaling and calling the defensive shifts. Whatever. There are a lot of disparate skills that go into catcher defense. We know each of those things has a defensive value and it all adds up together to result in the catchers’s overall value. Because all those individual skills are not necessarily correlated with each other, that will tend to clump the total values together as strengths and minuses play off each other.
My opinion is that the difference between a ‘good’ catcher and a ‘bad’ catcher is probably pretty small in the grand scheme.
To add some fuel to the fire
Which hasn’t been mentioned too often beyond the statistical arguments, but who’s going to deteriorate more as the contract wears on? V-Mart or Bel-Tray?
Anybody here ever play catcher for an extended period of time? A friend of mine was on his high school baseball team and as much as he loved the position, his senior year he was out for a while with injury and it really cost him a shot at playing more college ball.
So 4 years of V-Mart or 4 years of Bel-Tray? All things equal, I’d say Bel-Tray. Besides, even if V-Mart moves to 1B (and I’m not taking into consideration any logistical issues that will cause), his time at C surely will have taken a toll and there’s no guarantee injuries won’t catch up. While this may be true for Bel-Tray, the risk is lower, IMHO.
Also, I’d rather the prospects take their time in seasoning down at AAA. If they get called up for a bit and go back down and dominate, then everybody will know it’s time to move ’em up.
Besides, hearing John Miller shout “BEL-TRAY!” makes ESPN Sunday Night Baseball just that more enjoyable…and it’s usually not as we all know.
Yes, the 'average' catcher wears down
or simply isn’t good enough to keep an AL position for a long career into their 30s.
So this is a legitimate concern for the average catcher.
But I’m going to posit that Victor is not the average catcher.
As I mention above, he shows no signs of durability issues and arguable has less career wear and tear from catching than the typical catcher at age 31. He did not take up catching until he was in the minors.
There are several cases of catchers showing above average production well into their mid 30s. Since 1950, there have been 25 catcher-seasons with a .800+ OPS at age 34 or higher. So there is nothing written in stone that catchers CAN’T continue to produce past that age. I’ll give that it is not common.
But every thing about V-Mart suggests that he will be one of those catchers that will do so. I’m pretty confident that even if the Red Sox don’t sign him to do so, someone else will and he will still be catching in 4 years (barring some unusual injury, of course).
The only question is how much we are willing to pay. I don’t advocate over-paying for him. I’d like to keep Beltre, too!
Also...
… from Providence, RI, originally. A substantial plus in my book (that being the book of asabremetrical qualities in ballplayers – also known as the Joe Morgan Bible)
Wait 'til next/this year?
"Laser show. So relax."
by nuthinboutnuthin on Oct 15, 2010 1:46 PM EDT reply actions
Hey
I cant do the AFL Fanpost today, sorry… Can someone else do it? Thanks
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by bestbostonsports on Oct 15, 2010 2:43 PM EDT reply actions
Not sold, no way
you have to dig pretty deep to find a stat to compare the batting of Ianetta and Victor. What about sample size? you ar picking out a couple of years of backup duty for Ianetta. V-Mart has a long career of putting up consistently good numbers, Ianetta does not. Why can’t he break the Rockies lineup? Are they just stupid or do they do they have something against the guy? My guess is they don’t think he is better than Olivo, so why do the Red Sox, in the AL East, with a huge payroll and every-year WS hopes, want to give the catching job to the Rockies second string catcher? I don’t get it.
If Ianetta and V-mart are both FA’s now, which one gets the bigger contract? Victor, obviously. Again, are all the GM’s just stupid, or is Victor just a much better, certainly more proven commodity?
Great, the Sox have $10 million for something else. That benefit assumes they have a Need to save $10 mill. and they will do something with that money they otherwise would not be able to do. this drives me nuts. they can’t just buy $10 mil. of value, like they are buying cold cuts. they have to choose individual commodities that are avaialble to them on a very limited basis.
And you left out the cost in terms of prospects. I’m sure nobody here will want to give up Casey Kelly for Ianetta. Oh ya, crazy, rite? Why. Why can’t the Rockies demand a good prospect for a good, already ML talent?
Would you rather have Iannetta and Crawford, or Victor and no crawford?
For me, this one is obvious.
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Twitter: @BoldandBrash
by BoldandBrash on Oct 15, 2010 4:55 PM EDT up reply actions
If that was the choice
Victor, no Crawford. Use the money to sign Betre if possible and get a couple of good relievers. And none of this is really a choice, Victor and Crawford are FA’s and they have the choice, not the Sox.
but they won't choose the sox if we can't offer the most or near the most money.
You do have a point that if we can get a guy we should do that and not save money with the hopes we can get the bigger guy.
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Twitter: @BoldandBrash
by BoldandBrash on Oct 15, 2010 5:06 PM EDT up reply actions
The Sox have the money
They have tens of millions to play with this offseason. They can afford to sign just about any two FA’s outside of Crawford and Cliff Lee. They already have a range in mind for all the players they want, it just depends upon somebody getting crazy out there. With the Sox and Yankees not looking for the same players, they can outbid any other team.
I'd like to see them sign Werth
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by bestbostonsports on Oct 15, 2010 5:12 PM EDT up reply actions
I like Werth, but
again, just like with Crawford, his marginal value over cheaper alternatives isn’t likely to be worth the expense.
I would rather stick with our current planned OF roster (assuming healthy) of Drew-Camerond-Ellsbury as supplemented by Kalish & Co.
doesn't mean they should
who here hates the Lackey signing (not saying that I do)?
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Twitter: @BoldandBrash
by BoldandBrash on Oct 15, 2010 6:06 PM EDT up reply actions
Victor and no Crawford.
Easy.
Victor’s marginal value over a replacement catcher is WAY more than Crawford’s marginal value over a replacement OF.
what do you mean by marginal value?
if Crawford is a 6 WAR and Vic a 5 WAR player, then crawford has more value over the replacement OF than vic over the replacement C. Its allready implemented in WAR that replacement levels are very different for different positions
by German Red Sox Fan on Oct 20, 2010 9:22 PM EDT up reply actions
Martinez has been a 4 WAR player the last 2 years.
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by BoldandBrash on Oct 20, 2010 9:26 PM EDT up reply actions
im just throwing hypothetical numbers out there because i dont really get his argument
if we talk replacement level. Maybe he meant Crawfords value over Ells/Kalish/Cam is not higher than Vmarts Value over Tek/Salty/Bad FA Catcher? that would actually make some sense
by German Red Sox Fan on Oct 20, 2010 9:46 PM EDT up reply actions
Yes. The latter.
In this case ‘replacement’ == our replacements.
We have a lot more alternatives in the outfield that are much closer in value to Crawford. We have fewer alternatives at C.
Exactly.
The difference between Crawford – Ellsbury – Drew isn’t too far from Ellsbury – Cameron- Drew.
But VMart is much better than ???? at catcher.
If our “replacement” player in the OF is Cameron at 4 WAR and say Crawford is 6 WAR, we gain 2 wins. If our “replacement” player at C is a Tek/Salty platoon worth say 0-1 WAR, and VMart is a 4 WAR catcher, the gain is 3 wins, more than Crawford’s replacement value on the Sox.
It all comes down to this, its likely that VMart’s value over replacement might dwindle towards to the end of the contract if he does end up needing to spend more time DHing and at 1B whereas most accounts have Crawford aging pretty gracefully and might retain more value “off the lot.”
I’m pretty torn. I think getting VMart back will be a tremendous help for the closer future but becomes shakier the further you look out. Crawford is definitely a good player but aren’t we waisting his defense by putting him in our left field? And we’ve got a lot of OF prospects near the top right now that all boast solid defense.
I think looking elsewhere at catcher is going to end up our best fit and I don’t think we should touch the OF market. We’ve got three starting caliber OF’ers already and some solid bench guys/rookies for the time being. I really think the best thing to do is sign Beltre, I keep coming back to it. But even if we don’t, we’ve still got a solid 3B in Lowrie.
I would not be surprised if Theo made a strong, strong push at Lee this offseason, you can ALWAYS upgrade a rotation and the bullpen. Upgrading the positional players is quite a conundrum and we’ve got a lot of money coming off the books.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
The cost is definitely a legit concern
I’m not sure what they’d want, and I certainly wouldn’t want to give up Kelly, Lowrie, or Kalish at this point. Below that, I’d be pretty open. If they needed one of those guys I wouldn’t do it.
I think it’s a good idea if it makes room for a more important signing, like Beltre- in my mind, the dropoff between VMart and Ianetta is a lot smaller than the dropoff between Beltre and
I don't know if the blank was intentional
But it was poetic.
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Oct 15, 2010 5:51 PM EDT up reply actions
haha well it was kinda what I meant
I guess it got translated as an html thing. I said
insert name of any other available third baseman here
only used the arrows instead of asterix’
Annoying, no?
Quotation marks are even problematic.
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Oct 15, 2010 10:11 PM EDT up reply actions
You don't have to dig very deep at all. Just have to look past the luck.
Maybe Iannetta is a BABIP freak. The exception which proves the rule (when that phrase is used incorrectly, at least). But it doesn’t seem likely. Instead it seems like he’s had two unlucky years when given such a small sample to prove himself in.
I did address the prospects given up. I in fact specifically said not Kelly. But the point is that a pair of picks in this year’s loaded draft is not something to scoff at. The farm system will not be emptied by this deal, and there’s the possibility of even coming out ahead.
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Oct 15, 2010 6:09 PM EDT up reply actions
And can we please stop acting like the Red Sox don't have a budget? It's just not a realistic suggestion.
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Oct 15, 2010 6:13 PM EDT up reply actions
BUT THEY JUST SPENT 4 GAZILLION ON A SOCCER TEAM
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Twitter: @BoldandBrash
by BoldandBrash on Oct 15, 2010 6:44 PM EDT up reply actions
Hopefully and likely sarcastic -- but...
to anyone that wants to use the soccer purchase in a Red Sox payroll argument, they are two totally unrelated business decisions that roll up to the same portfolio. They are however operated and fiscally managed of their own accord and merit. I am already sick of this argument.
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The Courier-style typeface is the sarcasm font
everybody knows that
Wait 'til next/this year?
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by nuthinboutnuthin on Oct 15, 2010 7:02 PM EDT up reply actions
Sure, they have a budget but we have no idea what it is and it is likey flexible
It appears they want to stay under or close to the luxury tax threshold. I’m OK with that, tax liability is simply lost money that presents no value at all. I’m confident the Sox have great business management and they can manage their finances. They will only exceed the tax threshold when the opportunity exceeds the liability, or risk of paying the tax. An example is trading for a big money pending FA to greatly improve the chances of makng the playoffs.
Didn’t we just figure out the Sox have “only” about $100mil. in committed salary now? That give them plenty of room to maneuver and I’m sure that is not by accident. They can sign any FA or two they want this year.
Sorry, that "reasoning" won't work
On one hand you use esoteric statistics, and to bolster the weakness of the statistics, the small sample size in particular, you resort to “luck”! TWO unlucky years! I don’t get it, do the stats tell story, or not?
You can't really look at year by year with Iannetta because he was never given
the chance to play 4-5 FULL years. If you look at his cumulative MLB career statistics, it’s about two years worth of games. You can’t looks at 61 games in 2010 and say he sucks compared to his career of 346. His BABIP in 2009 and 2010 were not given the chance (over a full season) to regulate (come back closer to his career avg). So yes he was extremely unlucky in 2010 and somewhat unlucky in 2009. That’s what happens when you don’t get to play a full year. This is no guarantee, but he career numbers would most likely be higher if given more playing time for the BABIP to work itself out.
"Every night I go to bed thinking about when I’m going to play again. I dream about playing at Fenway."-Ryan Westmoreland
Twitter: @BoldandBrash
by BoldandBrash on Oct 16, 2010 11:24 AM EDT up reply actions
BABIP is hardly esoteric.
I swear, even Joe Morgan is about this close to figuring it out.
But yes, he has been unlucky, and yes, the stats do tell the story if you consider the whole body of evidence. He has put up good numbers before when his BABIPs appeared to be normal (because there is, certainly, a normal range) and his only bad seasons have huge red “luck” flags. It’s not like he never hits line drives, has no power, or routinely gets thrown out at first from the outfield. More of the balls he puts in play should be falling in, period.
You act as if there’s some be-all-end-all statistic that predicts perfectly how a player will perform, and I’m ignoring that in favor of Mr. Milk Carton’s theory of baseball-mole-people dynamics. Sorry, but I’m not using anything even slightly off-the-wall here. BABIP and its ability to provide misleading results is pretty well documented.
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Oct 16, 2010 5:26 PM EDT up reply actions
Then use all statistics
I must be missing something, when I look at Victor Martinez vs. Ianetta, and look at the complete body of work for both, I conclude that Victor Martinez is the superior player. I like superior players on the team I want to win. The goal is to have the best players possible, not conduct a science experiment or see how many “diamond in the rough” players we can find.
And where to I look to see the “bad luck” flags? Ianetta may go on to be a great player, but the information we have NOW, shows that Victor is the superior player.
the way I see it is
Victor right now, is a much safer bet and almost certainly would be better in 2011 than Ianetta. The counter is that Ianetta will cost a lot less $ (freeing them up to be spent elsewhere) and that Martinez is much less of a sure thing to be as effective through the entirety of a contract, whereas Ianetta should just be hitting his prime.
I don't know that he almost certainly would be better.
Probably, but not necessarily. But don’t talk to Scoop about money. He doesn’t think it has any influence on the Red Sox’ decision-making at all.
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Oct 17, 2010 12:52 PM EDT up reply actions
Money matters.......
but the Sox have shown a willingness to spend up to or even a bit over the luxury tax threshold. They will bring in young players to fill roles over FA’s (see Pedroia) when they believe that will work. They went out and signed some veteran FA’s for this past bridge year (Beltre, Scuatro, Cameron), and it worked out for the most part. I don’t see any reason the Sox will dramatically reduce the payroll anytime soon. They have to compete with the Yankees and even their own past success to keep the money train flowing in. NESN viewership is way down. The sellout streak is hanging by a thread and the secondary ticket market is way down. I live in Boston and I can feel the “buzz” for the Sox is way down compared to recent years.
I can see the Ianetta press conference now -
“Theo, why did you opt to trade for Ianetta rather than sign a more proven catcher like Victor or Buck?
Theo – “We have a good young player with tremendous upside in Ianetta and he saved the organization $30 mil. over the contract years.”
No gonna fly here.
How about
“We have a good young player with tremendous upside in Iannetta, and by signing him instead of Victor it freed up enough payroll to sign Carl Crawford.”
We’re not talking about lowering payroll. NOBODY here wants payroll to ever go down ever. But with us accepting that $178 million AAV+Benefits is about their limit, then saving $9 million on one position allows for $9 million to be spent elsewhere. I just think the difference between Iannetta and Martinez isn’t the difference between Scott Downs and no Scott Downs, not to mention the ability to spend that money in later years when/if Victor would be playing a mediocre 1B/DH most of the time.
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Oct 18, 2010 12:42 PM EDT up reply actions
if the sox don't think victor can catch
for the length of the contract – then why sign him for that length?
how much of a sox safety clause can they build in to a contract? i doubt very much wit victor [sic] (philly cheese steak days – you have to say ‘wit’ or they will spit in your grinder).
no logic in signing a guy to play 1st +/or dh down the road, while paying him premium catcher bucks.
i like walmart but i don’t know if i would sign him to beaucoup dinero, for to long of a contract if i know he won’t be catching for the length.
Because if you want his bat
and you have Lavarnway and Exposito ready by that time anyways, why not? Victor will still be able to hit, and they will find a post for him.
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by bestbostonsports on Oct 18, 2010 1:38 PM EDT up reply actions
*spot
I dont know where post came from.
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by bestbostonsports on Oct 18, 2010 1:38 PM EDT up reply actions
ok - but that justifies how many years?
how many years would you need to sign him for?
is that amount going to get a deal done?
sox offered two – didn’t get the john hancock on the dotted line.
so now what? three years – seems reasonable – but will it do it?
What spot?
He knows how to hit well enough to play C, 3B, SS, and some of the OF. But he can’t play any of those spots in this scenario.
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Oct 18, 2010 1:41 PM EDT up reply actions
He can DH
and still be one of the best DHs in baseball
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by bestbostonsports on Oct 18, 2010 1:43 PM EDT up reply actions
i'm lost
who are we talking about?
what is one of the best dh’s in baseball worth?
what is one of the best catchers in baseball worth?
are they equal?
when we need a dh – get a dh.
there are an abundant number of dh’s available – it’s not a position – it’s a semi-retirement or pre-coaching part time contributor.
the sox have had many and most have been excellent value’s.
Yeah
I think that one out of Lars, Rizzo, and Lavarnway should be able to OPS about .850 in the majors…maybe. Therefore, filling the DH role that Vic would have filled.
"Every night I go to bed thinking about when I’m going to play again. I dream about playing at Fenway."-Ryan Westmoreland
Twitter: @BoldandBrash
by BoldandBrash on Oct 18, 2010 7:19 PM EDT up reply actions
Why sign him to that length?
Because he isn’t only ours to sign. If we want to keep VMart, we would need to make a competitive offer for him in a very competitive catchers market. Some other team will be willing to splurge on him because for them, 3-4 years down the road, he’d still be an adequate 1B/DH for them. Here he will not be.
So the wager is, does VMart like Boston enough to take less years and thus less money to stay here? Or does highest bidder win.
I think the Sox need to be prepared to let him go because this is business and VMart should know that he won’t make as much money marketing himself as an eventual 1B/DH, he should go to the highest bidder as a catcher now. We probably won’t offer that.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
How about
"We have a good young player with tremendous upside in Iannetta, and by signing him instead of Victor it freed up enough payroll to sign Cliff Lee."
"Man that ball got outta here in a hurry, you know anything that travels that far oughta have a damn stewardess on it, don't you think?" - Crash Davis
The bad luck flags are BABIP.
All stats are not created equally. Some are basic production stats (from the bottom of the barrel RBI, to OPS, to wOBA), others explain how the player actually gets there (BB%, K%, batted ball profiles) and then there’s ones that show how those other ones are reached (BABIP, plate discipline profiles). The first ones are just the ones that you look at for a sort of quick glance. “Oh, this player produced this well this year.” For the most part, they’ll tell you if a player had a good year or not, but they won’t tell you if he’s likely to have a good year next year. Only when combined with the second and third groups can you begin to predict future performance.
As for conducting a science experiment, that’s the only way you get the best results. How did Theo put together the ’04 team? He picked up guys whose value was misunderstood. It was the final stage science experiment that succeeded because the actual numbers behind it made sense long before anyone actually tried to bring it to fruition on an actual team. Again, the numbers here make sense. There are tons of real cases of guys having down years due to randomly low BABIPs and bouncing, predictably, right back. You know why the Marlins were so eager to foist MIke Lowell on us? He had a year where he hit .236/.298/.360…with a .248 BABIP. The next two years he OPSed .814 and .878 thanks to BABIPs of .287 and .337.
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Oct 17, 2010 12:49 PM EDT up reply actions
Alas
The bargains of Lowell and Ortiz are few and far between these days as the philosophy has shifted away from traditional scouting. If the Rockies are low on Ianetta and he can be had, we should give it a solid effort.
Also, what is this other plan you mentioned you would post about?
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
Yeah, I've decided I need to look more into availability before bothering.
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Oct 17, 2010 12:55 PM EDT up reply actions
Who was it?
"Every night I go to bed thinking about when I’m going to play again. I dream about playing at Fenway."-Ryan Westmoreland
Twitter: @BoldandBrash
by BoldandBrash on Oct 17, 2010 2:53 PM EDT up reply actions
Suzuki is a pretty good catcher
but not really exceptional at much. The impression I’ve had is Oakland wants a lot to think about getting rid of him.
I am not from the camp that wants Suzuki.
He’s average at best but cost controlled. I’d pass on giving any quality to get Suzuki.
I'd be fine with Ross as our back up C but not number one.
We had him when he was 31. If I remember, he became a free agent when it became a numbers game and he looked to be the odd man out of the 40 man roster.
And since then he's been a monster.
It’s BABIP-related to be sure, but he’s always been a guy who can get on base, and actually, the framing metric considered him one of the best in the game. He can catch runners too.
We missed out by letting him go, honestly.
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Oct 18, 2010 9:41 AM EDT up reply actions
If the choice in '08 was
Dusty Brown or David Ross we picked wrong. But I believe it came down to who had option years remaining and that was Dusty. Dusty was also only 26 yrs old at the time, where Ross was 31. George Kottaras was also in the mix in ’08 and he was only 25 yrs old.
Ross signed an extension with the Braves in July for ‘11 and ’12 at $1.625mil /yr.
Ross Cot’s contract link
The Braves top catching prospect is an 18 yr old in A Ball, Christian Bethencourt from Panama.
Christian Bethencourt stat link
Closest to the bigs is J C Boscan (Venezuela) in AAA and he looks to need more time with his bat.
J C Boscan stat link
It seems the Braves would have low motivation to move Ross.
It just seems to me like he's a big trade asset
Wasting away behind arguably the most valuable catcher in the league. He’s not getting younger, so it’s not like he’s gonna fill in for McCann when he gets too old.
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Oct 18, 2010 1:47 PM EDT up reply actions
Maybe but the Braves just signed him
for two years and they have the $$ to carry him as McCann injury insurance at $1.625 mil/yr. He has been a great back up for the Braves.
Lowell
Lowell also had a track record showing great production in recent years before the trade. He was a risk because he could have been a washed up has-been. But at least he had a large ML track record to build on. I don’t see that with Ianetta.
And…..the money: because the Sox have a lot of money, yes they do, they could take the chance that Lowell was washed up to get Beckett.
ben, good stuff - lot of very good research
unfortunately, i didn’t get the jack daniels warm and fuzzy over ianetta
admittedly, i know nothing about ianetta, except what i just read.
price is ok but what about value?
if he earns his $3m big deal, that won’t compete in the beast.
i’m a hard sell on catchers. i prefer excellent catching skills and defensive leadership first. offense second. i’ll suffer by with a below avg hitter, thinking it will be made up in defense.
we need the best catcher available. is that walmart? maybe at a blue light special.
there will be a lot of average catchers available – but who will fit our criteria?
i hope our criteria isn’t just determined by prrice
The defense/leadership route is a valid alternative.
But if we’re going offense, then I see no reason to take Victor over Iannetta, is the main point here. I’d be interested in the options for a defense-first catcher, based both on the scouts and the metrics. The only guy I came up with whose bat didn’t make me remember the “month without RBIs” is the guy I referenced in the first post.
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Oct 15, 2010 6:12 PM EDT up reply actions
Most flexible and win-now method:
Move Lowrie to 3rd.
Sign Werth to play left/center for 4yr/14mil.
Resign V-Mart to catch for 4yr/12.5mil.
Restructure Ortiz to 2yr/16mil
Drop Papelbon
Sign releivers and a bench
Then they re-address 3B in 2012.
Werth moves to right when Drew leaves
V-Mart moves into DH/1B role in 2 years.
In doing this, nobody in blocked. Cameron ,Scutaro and Drew will be gone. One of Ellsbury/Reddick/Kalish is tradable, while the other two play left and center in 2012.
Salty backs up V-Mart and holds down the fort for a year is Victor starts to waiver behind the dish defensively until the catching boys are ready.
And Ortiz should be gone 2012/2013-ish to open up time for Anderson/Rizzo/Lavarnway.
Here’s the thing: Theo and Tito need to allow players like Anderson and Kalish to be bench players when they have run their courses in AAA. The philosophy of plugging guys in only to start in the majors or in AAA hurts the timelines of a lot of guys. I think Lars and Ryan even Josh Reddick can break through easier if they are on the big league team and the roster is full of MLB players. Plus, they can be on the roster for cheap in 2012 or even 2011 if they prove themselves.
This whole plan is what you call building a team from the ground up and FILLING HOLES with FA. Right now, just because we’re scared of that the 3B market is after Beltre doesn’t mean we can panic sign him for four years. Add into this process two more drafts, more money coming off the books (Ortiz, Drew, Dicey, Pap, Wake) and fluctuating performance, and you have yourself a nice future of 90-96 wins.
Rosterbation complete.
totally disagree that its a good idea to have young future starting players on the bench
The most important thing for them is getting regular at bats, you dont get that on the bench. I believe its slowing their progression rather than helping it by just being on the 25 man roster and another negative is thats its starting their arbitration clock. Ihmo its just a really bad idea.
by German Red Sox Fan on Oct 16, 2010 9:13 AM EDT up reply actions
+1
"Every night I go to bed thinking about when I’m going to play again. I dream about playing at Fenway."-Ryan Westmoreland
Twitter: @BoldandBrash
by BoldandBrash on Oct 16, 2010 11:29 AM EDT up reply actions
Vic is not going to ever be our 1B because he is not good at that.
He’s not a very good candidate for DH either considering that price. So if you believe that Vic will need to be moved from the catcher position after two years, then I believe there is absolutely NO way we should sign that deal. Half of the years will be bad or worthless. Now I’m not tremendously worried about blocking guys, but Vic at 1B/DH would certainly be blocking at least one of Lavarnway, Aderson, or Rizzo.
"Every night I go to bed thinking about when I’m going to play again. I dream about playing at Fenway."-Ryan Westmoreland
Twitter: @BoldandBrash
by BoldandBrash on Oct 16, 2010 11:29 AM EDT up reply actions
Nope
Why trade Papelbon? The bullpen already looks shaky, so why trade one of your most reliable?
Yes, he has been bad, but this year is a contract year so it might be different.
I would like to re-sign Victor, sign Werth, resign Ortiz, and then move Lowrie to 3B or sign a guy like Pena. Ideal option would be Beltre on a two year deal, but how relistic is that?
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by bestbostonsports on Oct 16, 2010 2:01 PM EDT up reply actions
He's gotten worse two years in a row, don't trade him, cut his ass
He isn’t effective enough of a reliever to earn the $10mil+ contract he will get in arbitration. That $10mil puts him in about the top 8 in terms of contract for RP. Is he a top 8 reliever yet alone closer? If we divide that in half we could get two relievers who would be just as effective (each still in the top 20 for RP contracts) and Bard would be the closer. Keeping Papelbon is irresponsible for the team. He just isn’t the guy he used to be. He’s average. At $10mil, average isn’t adequate anymore.
Pena is a catastrophe waiting to happen. This was a contract year and he still sucked, he’s gotten worse for three straight years. He was pedestrian at best with his 1 WAR. For a player that wasn’t heralded, played here and didnt do anything, I think it’s safe to say that his streak as an effective player is over.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
I think we should keep Papelbon, keep him in the closer's role.
It allows us to use Bard in situations that actually matter. 7th inning, bases loaded, no outs? Bring in Bard to strike out the side. With Papelbon gone you can’t do that because it’s “not a save situation.” By keeping Papelbon around we’re allowed to use out best relief pitcher when we actually need him.
If I was your math homework I'd be really hard and you'd be doing me on your desk.
I'm a 7 WAR player in bed.
by TheLoneDavid on Oct 16, 2010 2:55 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Exactly
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by bestbostonsports on Oct 16, 2010 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions
Keeping Papelbon though weakens an also very important phase
If we cut Papelbon, we can sign two premium set up men to take over Bard’s role from this year, we won’t be leaving it in Oki’s hands or anything.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
Don't you want to see Pap in a contract year?
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by bestbostonsports on Oct 16, 2010 3:03 PM EDT up reply actions
After his last two years?
Too much to risk. If he’s good great. But recent evidence suggests that won’t happen. How good was Pena’s contract year? If he’s bad, we end up replacing him in the closer’s role with Bard anyway and now we have a $10mil set up guy who isn’t that good when we could have had two good set up guys by letting him go.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
I don't think he is worth over $10 million
period. Regardless of situation. No matter what. The price could bring us to relievers more effective than him.
personally I'm pretty sure that Downs and Benoit could be had for about that much/year
although Downs may take a few years. Benoit may well look for a one year contract to prove this year wasn’t a fluke.
I agree that $10 is too much for him
And I’d also like to add that in my opinion, counting on a “contract year” from a player is a doomed strategy. For every guy who kills it in his contract year (ala 2004 Beltre), there are tons who perform as usual. It is too unreliable to plan for a player to pitch or hit better just because he will be a FA next year.
And it’s not like Papelbon hasn’t been pitching for a contract the past two years. He made it pretty clear that he wants to set records with his arb. figures, so it’s not like he hasn’t had $$ in his eyes already. I’d rather spend the money elsewhere.
I have to admit, I don't know which set up men are available.
If I was your math homework I'd be really hard and you'd be doing me on your desk.
I'm a 7 WAR player in bed.
by TheLoneDavid on Oct 16, 2010 3:04 PM EDT up reply actions
Joaquin Benoit JJ Putz
Individuals don't win Championships, Teams do.
Chase for 28
"Boos are compliments" - Alex Rodriguez
Get Off My Mound
Scott Downs
I’d like to get him.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
As in he's a known AL East proven reliever.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
I'd love him too, but he's going to cost a bit.
He’s also a Type A I believe.
So with Bard/Downs/Putz/Bowden/Felix…
Yeah, I like it.
If I was your math homework I'd be really hard and you'd be doing me on your desk.
I'm a 7 WAR player in bed.
by TheLoneDavid on Oct 16, 2010 3:08 PM EDT up reply actions
$5mil should get it done, at most
I’d hope anyway.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
So who would close? Downs at $5m or Bard?
I still like the idea of using Bard wherever we want.
If I was your math homework I'd be really hard and you'd be doing me on your desk.
I'm a 7 WAR player in bed.
by TheLoneDavid on Oct 16, 2010 3:10 PM EDT up reply actions
If we had a manager that thought like this,
we could still use Bard whenever we want because we have good high leverage relievers. The problem is that IDK if these guys will like not having set roles.
"Every night I go to bed thinking about when I’m going to play again. I dream about playing at Fenway."-Ryan Westmoreland
Twitter: @BoldandBrash
by BoldandBrash on Oct 16, 2010 3:31 PM EDT up reply actions
meaning that Bard is used
in the 9th, 8th, or even 7th based on situation
"Every night I go to bed thinking about when I’m going to play again. I dream about playing at Fenway."-Ryan Westmoreland
Twitter: @BoldandBrash
by BoldandBrash on Oct 16, 2010 4:10 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm not really sure what you mean by: "if we had a manager that thought like this"?
Name a manager who doesn’t use a set closer? Bard threw more high leverage innings than Paps this season.
The closer role is pretty set right now. Relievers, who can hack it, want to be closers because they make more money. While I’d love to see a tru bullpen-by-committee, I doubt I ever will. The money, media and player perceptions make it too hard to do.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Oct 17, 2010 12:34 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm not complaining about tito.
I was just saying if we had a manager that didn’t use set roles.
"Every night I go to bed thinking about when I’m going to play again. I dream about playing at Fenway."-Ryan Westmoreland
Twitter: @BoldandBrash
by BoldandBrash on Oct 17, 2010 2:04 PM EDT up reply actions
But they all do
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Oct 17, 2010 8:07 PM EDT up reply actions
That's the problem.
we’d need an outside the box thinking guy, which would never happen because he wouldn’t be from the in crowd ( former managers, current managers. Bench coaches, etc.)
"Every night I go to bed thinking about when I’m going to play again. I dream about playing at Fenway."-Ryan Westmoreland
Twitter: @BoldandBrash
by BoldandBrash on Oct 17, 2010 8:29 PM EDT up reply actions
It isn't going to happen for a lot of reasons
Add agents and GMs to the mix too.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Oct 17, 2010 8:34 PM EDT up reply actions
We could probably get Soriano for much less than Papelbon and use him at closer and non-tender Okajima as well to get money for Downs. Then we’d have Soriano, Downs, Bard, Atchinson, Doubront.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
that would be just lovely.
I’d guess Soriano is about the same price next year as papelbon, but I’d love to have him.
Always hard to judge the RP market. Papelbon on Arb had a top 10 sized contract for a RP, which seemed to be filled with top tier closers. Not sure Soriano is that top tier, Papelbon surely isn’t anymore though.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
or maybe we cut Pap's ass, and spend more than
his 15mil or whatever and get two relievers instead of keeping one. I think that’s better value.
"Every night I go to bed thinking about when I’m going to play again. I dream about playing at Fenway."-Ryan Westmoreland
Twitter: @BoldandBrash
by BoldandBrash on Oct 16, 2010 3:30 PM EDT up reply actions
That's why Pena would be cheap
and on a one year deal he could be inspired to play better. It’s just patchwork for now anyways.
On papelbon, remember it is a contract year and Papelbon loves his money, I really like Bard, but I want to see him one more year before he is closer.
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by bestbostonsports on Oct 16, 2010 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions
He would be cheap. He would also suck. I’d like to avoid having a bad player on the team if we can avoid it. We’d still pay a premium because he still thinks he can hit 40 HR’s a year, even if his other 540 ABs of the year hurt us in the end.
Every player loves their money and not all perform in contract years. It’s too big of a risk. Bard can close, would be a good closer and the saved $10mil can go into getting TWO (2) premium set up men, so Bard’s role won’t be turned over to Oki or anything. He has nothing more to prove as a set up guy.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
OK
Sign Pena to low risk contract and sign a RHB to platoon.
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by bestbostonsports on Oct 16, 2010 3:03 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't want Pena anywhere near Boston next, or any, year.
He is not a major league baseball player anymore.
If I was your math homework I'd be really hard and you'd be doing me on your desk.
I'm a 7 WAR player in bed.
by TheLoneDavid on Oct 16, 2010 3:04 PM EDT up reply actions
I'd love to sign every player to a low risk contract
But a guy who hits HR’s like he does will be grossly over paid because of that. Let some other team make that mistake. Bates would likely be a better 1B for us than Pena at this point.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
I disagree with that
Pena has much more power.
Funny you say that though, I;ve always kinda thought Bates might develop into a Pena like player, but not as good.
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by bestbostonsports on Oct 16, 2010 11:11 PM EDT up reply actions
Anyone who is hitting 25+ HRs and providing only a .730 OPS is doing something seriously wrong with the rest of his at bats, his .325 OBP isn’t cutting it.
He was actually very Hall like this year. Actually. Worse than Hall-esque.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
Pena?
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by bestbostonsports on Oct 17, 2010 10:49 AM EDT up reply actions
Yes,
He does have something going on Hall. I’m pretty sure he’s not as terrible on defense.
"Every night I go to bed thinking about when I’m going to play again. I dream about playing at Fenway."-Ryan Westmoreland
Twitter: @BoldandBrash
by BoldandBrash on Oct 17, 2010 11:03 AM EDT up reply actions
Dude was hittin' around the Mendoza line, yo.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
On the catcher situation another option to consider...
If you are concerned about the price tag and productivity and defense of Lanetta and V-Mart then:
Accept that this position is not pretty for the Sox this coming season and go with a platoon of Tek and Salty while waiting for other prospects to develop. This kinda takes on the assumption of good enough is good enough- when I see those numbers from Ben I am not exactly overwhelmed.
That 10 million a year on V-Mart or the 3 million on Lanetta is now saved and spent elsewhere. You could look for a big bat to buy or a big arm or even both. V-mart does contribute to the offense. Both Tek and Salty are a bargain and should get you through the year with the same defense or better than V-mart and Lanetta – just a thought. And, if Salty does have an upside a platoon situation over the season would confirm or deny the assumption of he is legit starter.
All I know is I am watching the Yankees and Rangers play in the ALCS – I do not want to watch next year without the Sox there. So, whatever moves they make I hope put them in the best position to win.
"Man that ball got outta here in a hurry, you know anything that travels that far oughta have a damn stewardess on it, don't you think?" - Crash Davis
This is a good point
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Twitter: @BoldandBrash
by BoldandBrash on Oct 16, 2010 11:29 AM EDT up reply actions
The thing is
after his incredible start (and even before his injury), our beloved Tek was looking Ca$h-like, even in his backup role.
And
Salty flat-out sucks. I doubt he’ll ever be a viable catching option.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Oct 17, 2010 12:36 PM EDT up reply actions
We need to find his worth
He hasn’t yet been given a solid sample size. If these things are 50/50, well we bombed on Hermida, maybe Salty will become the real deal! But nothing more than a platoon for Salty as it stands, which may be our catching situation going into next year.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
Find out his worth in the minors
Go with Vic or another catcher (Iannetta, a FA, etc), a back up like Tek, and start Salty in the minors. If Tek gets hurt or Salty looks legit (something he has yet to do), call him up. One of my peeves with Theo is he gets infatuated with players—Wily Mo, Hermida, etc.—who were highly though of when drafted, but are projects. Project players do not belong in the majors. I don’t care how good a players was in high school. A contending team’s major league roster should consist of solid major league players.
Salty is poor defensively, and is a career .248 AVG/.315 OBP/.386 SLG (.701 OPS/.307 wOBA) hitter in 899 PA. He hasn’t shown he can be a legit back-up. He should prove himself in the minors before being handed a job with the Sox.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Oct 17, 2010 8:33 PM EDT up reply actions
These players have nothing left to prove in the minors. Salty has hit to a .823 OPS in nearly 2000 PAs throughout his minor league career. Hermida his .829. At some point they’ve got to be tested at a major league level for a long enough sample size to determine their value. Salty can prove NOTHING by hitting well in Pawtucket besides that, as always, he can hit minor league pitching.
That’s what these projects of Theo’s are about, getting players who have shown themselves at one level but haven’t been given a full chance at the next.
Don’t forget that Wily Mo hit to a .838 OPS in 300 something PAs in 06 before blowing hard in 07. Horrendous defense aside.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
But, they can't hack it in the majors
So they’re a waste of a major league roster spot. Salty may be the worst of all because catcher is such an important position. It’s foolish to expect anything of a player who has shown absolutely nothing at the major league level.
Salty has to prove he can play the position, something he has never shown. The ONLY place to do that is in the minors.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Oct 18, 2010 7:28 AM EDT up reply actions
He will get a shot at ML playing time
But he has to prove he belongs quickly. The Red Sox will be trying to win a pennant and they can’t afford to have him learn on the job for 6 weeks. There are hundreds of “AAAA” players out there that just can’t make the jump. For Salty, he may be better off in another organization that can afford to give him a longer ML leash. But he will get his shot.
well the minors probably give the Sox staff more in depth scouting than they could get otherwise in any case
See if there’s anything wrong with his swing they can fix, etc. The impression I had was him and the Texas coaching staff didn’t seem to click. I think him starting in the minors is fairly likely.
I think it’s likely he starts in the minors too, I don’t want him as a starter on this team, he’s too unknown. But if we go with a less ideal catcher situation, like with Tek, I wouldn’t mind seeing him in a platoon to try him out if we’re sacrificing the position anyway.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
I think you will see Salty this year in a platoon or backup role.
2011 is definitely a make or break year for him. As another poster mentioned he can perform in the minors – can he make the jump? he does have 813 PA’s dating back to 2008 (most with Texas) and he is less than impressive. However, 2010 was horrendous but also injury plagued so the sample is best thrown out. If you look at 2008-2009 it is decent for a backup. He is not Carlton Fisk, Rich Gedman or the youthful Varitek. But, perhaps he is serviceable.
They just signed him to a one year deal (on the cheap) so I am assuming they intend to give him an audition in the majors to see what pans out. I also wonder what acceptable numbers are for a catcher in today’s game?
In a powerful lineup you do not need a masher at the catcher position although it is always value added. I agree that Salty has been less than impressive – but, I think he gets a shot this year based upon the overall lack of good options available.
This I say: “If you go with Lanetta and Salty you better buy a big bat (probably in the OF)…and resign Beltre and Papi if you go with V-Mart the big bat option is not as critical as long as Beltre and Papi are both back in the lineup.”
On that note, I am hoping we do not throw money at the OF position this season – I think we have enough options there to be good enough and can adjust in 2012. Time will tell…
"Man that ball got outta here in a hurry, you know anything that travels that far oughta have a damn stewardess on it, don't you think?" - Crash Davis
Typo cops:
That’s Iannetta with an “eye”, “two enz” and “two tees”. No L’s, unless this is a nick name you use. I’ve missed one of the N’s a dozen times.
It seems, Chris Iannetta needs to get his AB’s in a starting role at least five days a week or his swing gets out of wack. If Chris had more success throwing out baserunners, I’d be more willing to take the risk for a high reward. Even with the low $ contract, he’s still a plan B for me.
Salty gets an invite to spring training with a chance to make the team but he has a lot of work to do coming off the thumb injury.
Side note: How did Salty’s injury not become known during his physical when the trade happened? This still puzzles me.
Doctor's can't get that info real well if he's not saying anything about it
I don’t think they’re doing full body MRIs of all the players. Apparently he was hiding it pretty well.
But they do tests for strength in pitching shoulders and such.
Why not a test on the grip of a catcher? It would seem, without a good thumb, a catcher isn’t of much use or value until it’s fixed.
Here is my question
Could the Sox sign Crawford this winter, and an AGonz type next winter?
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It depends who else they sign this winter.
Both those guys might get 7 years,and I doubt we do that in back to back years. Maybe not 6 either.
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by BoldandBrash on Oct 16, 2010 11:30 AM EDT up reply actions
Actually, most likely not
I think we just have too many needs. Those two combined would be about 40mil. We have 100mil already committed to next year, so that gives us about 70mil in spending money this offeason (give or take arb and trades for lower salaries). IDK who would be coming off the books after next year, but this idea doesn’t seem likely. We need a 3B, a C, a bullpen, and maybe OF help, which would be Crawford. I just don’t think they will go all cheap in those areas for two players.
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Twitter: @BoldandBrash
by BoldandBrash on Oct 16, 2010 12:06 PM EDT up reply actions
Dont think they want to go back to 170m
It limits the moves they can make inseason.
Sign Beltre about 15m
sign Werth about 15m
sign veritek platoon with Salt about 3-5m
sign a cheaper DH, Vlad, Huff, ect 5-7m
sign 2 top relief pitchers about 10m
let Ortiz and Pap go. Bard closer
Puts the team about 150-160 m
Why would the Sox need Crawford?
With one of or both Reddick and Kalish ready to go in 2012 I don’t see the need for Crawford. If anything we’d need someone with a cannon to play right, and I’m not sold on Werth. A couple years of Ells/Kalish/Reddick sounds fine to me, and will be significantly cheaper than Crawford/Ells/Kalish or Crawford/Kalish/Reddick. With the money we save we could end up with an infield of Beltre/Lowrie/Pedroia/Youkilis with Ianetta behind the plate and a rotation of Lester/Buchh/Lackey/Beckett/Dice-K(Or Kelly, or whomever) Plug Lars/Rizzo/Whomever in as the DH until Youk’s leaving and you have a significantly cheaper team here without addressing the bullpen, which I see as a combination of Bard/Felix/Bowden and a collection of cheap as free free agent relievers.
If I was your math homework I'd be really hard and you'd be doing me on your desk.
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by TheLoneDavid on Oct 16, 2010 12:59 PM EDT up reply actions
Whats not to like about Werth
Hits for power/Average gets on base. Plays very good D and can run the bases
He's also 32 and would end up blocking either Kalish or Reddick.
He would cost a lot, which means either we don’t sign Beltre like in my example, or we neglect other areas, such as the bullpen. It’s the same as my argument against Crawford basically. Reddick has the cannon arm we need in right field, he’s younger, and he’s cheaper. If he can hit about three quarters as well as he did in Pawtucket during the second half then I’d rather have him and Beltre at third than Werth and a question mark at third. In my mind, Werth and Beltre are getting similar deals, they’re both 32, and they’re both one of if not the best option at their respective positions.
Reddick has the ability to be a younger, cheaper Werth, he just needs to translate it to the Big Leagues.
If I was your math homework I'd be really hard and you'd be doing me on your desk.
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by TheLoneDavid on Oct 16, 2010 2:16 PM EDT up reply actions
If we don't sign Martinez and we do get Beltre,
it’s possible that we could get Werth or Crawford.
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Twitter: @BoldandBrash
by BoldandBrash on Oct 16, 2010 2:24 PM EDT up reply actions
I know it's possible, I just don't think it's smart.
It seems like a fan-service move to me that could cost us in the future. Unless they plan on trading Ellsbury I feel like it’s a better idea to spend that money on a suite of relievers. After seeing how Kalish has played in the bigs this year I am totally convinced that we can compete with the plus players who are in our farm system. I’d rather offer arb to Victor and take the picks, pick up Ortiz’s option, then trade for Ianetta, sign Beltre, and ride the Cameron/Drew wave until it’s over. Give Kalish and Reddick some more playing time next year and go in with them as the starters in ’12. Think about it:
2012 lineup
C Ianetta
1B Youkilis
2B Pedroia
SS Lowrie/Iglesias
3B Beltre
LF Ellsbury
CF Kalish
RF Reddick
DH Rizzo/Lars
Reddick’s bat still has to translate to the MLB, but speaking right now I like that roster. It frees up a lot of money too, with Drew off the books and Reddick/Kalish/Lars all earning league minimum, it allows Theo to sign proven bullpen help. The other options I see are something like this:
With Crawford
C Ianetta
1B Youk
2B Pedroia
SS Iglesias
3B Lowrie
LF Crawford
CF Kalish
RF Reddick
In this option Ellsbury is traded or used as the 4th OF, Beltre walks, and Iglesias is the starting SS with Lowrie as the 3B. It’s not a BAD lineup, and I think it could definitely compete in the East, but I don’t think it’s quite as good as the lineup with Beltre. If both Crawford and Beltre are signed, then the bullpen is going to be a mess.
With Werth
C Ianetta
1B Youk
2B Pedroia
SS Iglesias
3B Lowrie
LF Ellsbury
CF Kalish
RF Werth
In this lineup Kalish becomes the trade bait/4th OF. Werth may be the next Jim Edmonds in which case we don’t have to worry about his age, but I don’t really believe that. In this scenario we end up with a older, worse version of JD Drew at the end of his contract. This is a cheaper option than the Crawford deal, which means that Beltre has a better chance to stick around, but I still feel that the first option provides the most competitive team. Good defense, good hitting, and money for good relief pitching. We end up with a mainly homegrown team, with Iglesias possibly taking over SS from Lowrie to make one of the best defensive infields in the game, and providing us with one of, if not the best super utility players in the game.
If I was your math homework I'd be really hard and you'd be doing me on your desk.
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by TheLoneDavid on Oct 16, 2010 2:44 PM EDT up reply actions
I like the last one best
and I dont like the first one. Too many lefties.
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by bestbostonsports on Oct 16, 2010 2:57 PM EDT up reply actions
Good hitters are still going to hit.
If I was your math homework I'd be really hard and you'd be doing me on your desk.
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by TheLoneDavid on Oct 16, 2010 3:17 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm not saying we need an OF.
I’m sorta with you on that. I think it depends on how much these guys are going to get. Both could just not be worth it. However, let’s remember that we do have an OF position opening after next year. It would be up to Reddick or Lin to fill that, and it’s no guarantee that either of those two will ever make it to the bigs. Plus, it’s not like Ellsbury is a great player. And it’s no guarantee that Crawford or Werth will produce in Boston, but they are established major league players. Something that Lin, Reddick, and Kalish are not. If we have the money and don’t sign Vic, it MAY be a better investment to spend on the OF as opposed to the pen or signing Gonzalez. Signing big name pen guys really isn’t that great of an investment, but sometimes it has to be done. I think it’s still possible to sign pen help and get Beltre and Werth/Crawford. Obviously it depends on how much Werth and Crawford are.
"Every night I go to bed thinking about when I’m going to play again. I dream about playing at Fenway."-Ryan Westmoreland
Twitter: @BoldandBrash
by BoldandBrash on Oct 16, 2010 3:48 PM EDT up reply actions
I would still rather wait a year with Cameron and Ellsbury and see where our AAA guys are.
If I was your math homework I'd be really hard and you'd be doing me on your desk.
I'm a 7 WAR player in bed.
by TheLoneDavid on Oct 17, 2010 3:20 AM EDT up reply actions
I agree,
I’m just not sold on either option. If we wait, we can’t go back and get one of those guys. There’s a line between necessity and luxury here, and I hope we know what we’re doing.
"Every night I go to bed thinking about when I’m going to play again. I dream about playing at Fenway."-Ryan Westmoreland
Twitter: @BoldandBrash
by BoldandBrash on Oct 17, 2010 11:08 AM EDT up reply actions
Dont like your options
Sox can spend more on the lineup.
Why do you want to drop the payroll by 50M
All the Options
Sign just 1 big FA? They can sign 2!
I don't want to drop the payroll by 50m. I want to spend the money where we actually need to spend it.
If I was your math homework I'd be really hard and you'd be doing me on your desk.
I'm a 7 WAR player in bed.
by TheLoneDavid on Oct 18, 2010 3:52 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm not saying they NEED him,
just factoring him into the total cost. Sorry, it was a bit misleading.
"Every night I go to bed thinking about when I’m going to play again. I dream about playing at Fenway."-Ryan Westmoreland
Twitter: @BoldandBrash
by BoldandBrash on Oct 16, 2010 2:23 PM EDT up reply actions
dang
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by bestbostonsports on Oct 18, 2010 1:49 PM EDT reply actions
The question is who on OTM would vote yes?
definitly no for me
by German Red Sox Fan on Oct 18, 2010 2:00 PM EDT up reply actions
+1
dice k straight up …lol
by RED SOX are #1 in my heart on Oct 18, 2010 2:10 PM EDT up reply actions
I would say no
unless they sign Crawford AND Werth to go along with it.
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by bestbostonsports on Oct 18, 2010 2:27 PM EDT up reply actions
Wow
68% of the people voting in that poll said yes. We don’t have a need at 1B and our offense has not been a huge problem. We will need Lowrie over the next couple of years.
I agree with went9, just sign Beltre.
Or if Boras plays his games and waits 'till the last minute with Beltre,
holding everyone over the barrel, make a play to get Paul Konerko for one year and then go for A-Gon as a free agent in ‘12 with no loss of prospects. Konerko said he would be open to signing a short term deal because he’s not sure how much longer he wants to play.
Man, the Sox are going to be in on every trade rumor this off season because there are so many different ways to go to improve this team. And one move will create the domino effect.
I should shave my head right now because I won’t have any hair left anyway after two or three months of getting this roster together.
I'd rather move Lowrie to third and keep Scutaro around than sign a 1b and move Youk over.
If I was your math homework I'd be really hard and you'd be doing me on your desk.
I'm a 7 WAR player in bed.
by TheLoneDavid on Oct 18, 2010 3:55 PM EDT up reply actions
Wait a minute, everybody. Let's think this through.
Not that it matters because the deal didn’t go through anyway, but…
Rizzo is a prospect, albeit a damn fine one, but could turn out to be another Josh Reddick AAAA guy. He’s no “can’t miss” at this point. Ellsbury gets injured sneezing hard (and doesn’t walk enough to be a great leadoff guy) so no big loss there. As for Lowrie, I’m a big fan, but he has had health issues, too. (i’d rather throw in Scutaro than Lowrie).
A-Gonz is the Mark Texeira we didn’t get, we’d have him for one year real cheap, and have the upper hand in signing him long term.
I’ll bet we haven’t heard the last of the A-Gonz trade proposals.
But what upper hand do we really have?
Why give up prospects unless he was willing to negotiate an extension as part of the trade. He has NO reason to not go to FA, so we can just get him then.
A few things wrong
Reddick isn’t AAAA yet. This next season will be the one to tell us, but 56 games is no where near the sample size needed, no matter how bad he’s looked.
Rizzo can be our Texiera. He’s got a tremendous bat, has succeeded at all levels and his 1B defense is constantly marveled at. This guy hasn’t hiccuped the way Lars did.
Lowrie doesn’t have health issues, he broke a hand and was told to play through it, he did as he was told and it cost him time. Mono, was a freak thing. He’s back and healthy and so far looks like he can be second to HanRam in terms of SS hitting.
Ellsbury? Sneezing? He took a big man’s knee to the stomach and broke some ribs, and then he was rushed back, dove and re-injured them. He’s only missed 22 games the two previous years, playing at least 145 games in each of them.
Rizzo, Ellsbury, Lowrie, Kelly is not cheap, it’s sacrificing A LOT for a player we don’t especially need. Lowrie can play third and his bat plays well there. Beltre could be re-signed. Youk is an excellent 1B but doesn’t have much future at 3B with his size.
There are much cheaper, still good options that don’t involve us trading our two best young players, our best pitching prospect and our (IMO) best positional prospect.
Plus, Theo WILL NOT do it.
100% guaranteed.
When’s the last time he pulled a deal like that in his time here? Don’t say Beckett/Lowell. That wasn’t him.
Theo’s always built through the draft. Because he held onto prospects instead of trading them is why we have: Youkilis, Pedrioa, Ellsbury, Lowrie, Lester, Doubront, and Buchholz.
He values them as much as we as fans do and because of our scouting department, it’s been worth it nearly every time.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
I agree with all of this except your assessment of Lowrie
I don’t think he’s injury prone either, but it might be a little early to dub him the 2nd best hitting SS in the game. Maybe he can be. I’ve certainly been impressed with him, and I hope he is given the starting SS or 3B job next year (depending on if we re-sign Beltre). But let’s not put too much expectation on him just yet.
But I think you’re right about everything else. So tired of hearing about how injury prone Lowrie and Ells are.
To be fair
Among SS with at least 100 PA this season, his OPS and wOBA was ranked second, ahead of HanRam and behind Troy holycrap Tulowitzki. Which is much the same way he hit when he broke into the league back in what? 2008 right?
I’m not saying he is, I’m saying he can be because in limited time this year, he was.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
I agree
But we have to be careful about counting on those numbers. He has had success multiple times, but both times have been (relatively) small sample sizes. I think most of us would agree that he can and should produce like that over a full season. But if I’m Theo, it’s hard to plug Lowrie’s numbers into my big equation, when he hasn’t done it for a full year yet. There is a question mark there, even if it’s a smaller one.
specifically for a year of a player we don't really need
He’ll be a free agent after next year… If the Red Sox decide they need him then (doesn’t really make sense to me) they can sign him then and just sacrifice a draft pick rather than all the top talent.
Move him to third
I believe is the party line.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
And by then
We should know what we have in Rizzoa little more, he’ll be prime for an end of season call up next year. If he still looks as good as he does right now I don’t see Theo making a strong push to sign him.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
Some fuel for the fire
(And this isn’t my opinion, just playing devil’s advocate here). Is anyone worried about Gonz going from relative obscurity in SD to the big stage in BOS? Will he thrive under the pressure?
Or conversely, will he benefit from not being the only guy who can hit in his linuep? Will the added protection take the pressure off of him?
Thoughts?
I would tend to think if anything, more of the second
coming from a place where he essentially is the offense to a very solid lineup I would think would help him. Certainly there’s lots of pressure at Fenway, but he also wouldn’t be “the superstar” to the same degree as he is in San Diego.
Although, he would be pressured to live up to his Teix-like monster contract.
See: K, Dice.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
HOLD THE PHONE
MLBTR says that Kelly and Iglesias would probably need to be in there as well. http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/10/odds-ends-red-sox-greinke-rays-jays.html
"Every night I go to bed thinking about when I’m going to play again. I dream about playing at Fenway."-Ryan Westmoreland
Twitter: @BoldandBrash
by BoldandBrash on Oct 18, 2010 7:23 PM EDT up reply actions
and listen to what one of the comments was
Your stupid as heck if you vote no
lol
"Every night I go to bed thinking about when I’m going to play again. I dream about playing at Fenway."-Ryan Westmoreland
Twitter: @BoldandBrash
by BoldandBrash on Oct 18, 2010 7:24 PM EDT up reply actions
well that's just nuts.
not in a million years does anyone make that deal.
Rizzo, Ells, Lowrie, Kelly AND Iglesias???? for one 1B?
If the first baseman is not named Gehrig, Foxx, Greenberg or Musial, I’m not doing it.
Ok, be rational
Read the article, it wasn’t an addition of Kelly and Iglesias per se, one just had to be included.
So, a guy who was arguably in the NL MVP race, who is an excellent 1st baseman, hit 30 hrs and 101 RBIs in one of the top pitchers parks, who is young, cost controlled and probably going to mash off the monster is not worth…:
Ellsbury – whom everyone hates on this board bc he does walk enough(which is ridiculous).
Lowrie – actually I really like him.
Rizzo – a player who has not hit a single major league pitch
???
You would not make this move?
and in a million years you would not substitute any of these 3 with Iglesias or Kelly?
You guys really want to just watch drafted players.
Outside of Votto, Tex, and Pujol, AGon is the best 1B available and he is worth so much more than a utility guy, an OF with no position and a bunch of PROSPECTS.
But go ahead, I bet he will look great in Ranger blue.
P.S. OBVIOUSLY both A-Gon and the Sox would want an extension.
Another thing this “Liverpool will not affect our payroll” argument needs to stop. OF COURSE purchasing Liverpool will affect the Red Sox, most likely in a positive ways since its a money making machine.
Ask around, ask your soccer fan friends. Liverpool is no joke, its Man U. or NewCastle. The money this organization is about to pull is Yankee like.
it's a year of him, I wouldn't do that
and why would he want an extension? He could do much better playing teams against each other in FA.
+1
"Every night I go to bed thinking about when I’m going to play again. I dream about playing at Fenway."-Ryan Westmoreland
Twitter: @BoldandBrash
by BoldandBrash on Oct 20, 2010 6:37 PM EDT up reply actions
You do this every year, SoxAcumen
If you had been GM the past few years, the Sox would have traded Lester as part of a deal for Johan Santana, a very expensive, declining pitcher. You also were in favor of sending Buchholz to Texas straight up for Salty. How would those moves have worked out? Remember that the next time you make the argument for trading prospects for “proven” players.
Gonzalez is a very good player. But the Sox already have one of the best 1B in the game, Kevin Youkilis. Youk is FAR better than Teixeira. Moving Youk, an elite defensive 1B, to 3B, where he isn’t very good, isn’t optimal. Also, why should the Sox trade top talent for a player they can just buy after next season? Good, young, cost-controlled players are valuable.
Based on your posts here, you like to pay a premium for past performance. That’s a bad long-term strategy for building a club.
Another thing, why is a player’s walk-rate ridiculous? The rate at which a player makes outs is important. Even you should be able to understand that.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Oct 20, 2010 4:23 PM EDT up reply actions
See my post above; I WOULD make the move they proposed. I was the only one...
until you agreed with pretty much the same rationale. I didn’t want to add Kelly and Iglesius to that, which is what I thought they were saying.
So tell me
How many massive deals has Theo pulled in his tenure here? He wasn’t even the one who pulled the trigger on HanRam for Beckett/Lowell, which worked out for us at SP and 3B but cost us stability at SS, even though HanRam was only a PROSPECT.
You know who else was only a PROSPECT?
Kevin Youkilis.
Dustin Pedrioa.
Jed Lowrie.
Jacoby Ellsbury.
Jon Lester.
Clay Buchholz.
Jonathan Papelbon.
Daniel Bard.
How many times could these guys have been traded for Adrian Gonzalez, Felix Hernandez, Johan Santana, Alex Rodriguez or any other major talent that could have been available over the last few years?
No how many times were they?
0.
The tag of top prospect carries a lot of weight in this organization because with all their amateur scouting and good drafts, the top prospects actually have a very good success rate with our team. Why would Theo trade any of them for a player he can just purchase with a contract next year if he really wants him? He won’t do it, it isn’t and never has been who Theo is. The prospects stay with us.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
Yeah...Um...
How about…um, NO.
Way too much. And Theo & Co. would want to make sure Gonzo would sign an extension, otherwise no deal in any shape or form.
Still, that’s too much as we’d have nothing left for a possible SS prospects. If this is true, it’s Jed Hoyer playing hardball and at the same time, being an idiot if he really believes it could happen.
Don’t see a trade like this happening unless another team jumps in.
Most important offseason move...
…compelling someone other than the Yankees to sign Cliff Lee. Because holy crap, dude…
Wait 'til next/this year?
"Laser show. So relax."
by nuthinboutnuthin on Oct 19, 2010 12:13 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
little ditty floating around
“If Cliff Lee signs a six-year contract with the Yankees this winter, he could earn close to $200MM in salary and endorsement deals, estimates Forbes Magazine’s Patrick Rishe.”
Geez that is all?
"Man that ball got outta here in a hurry, you know anything that travels that far oughta have a damn stewardess on it, don't you think?" - Crash Davis
Sarcasm obviously...
I think we should throw in Pedroia, Lester and Buch then it would be really fair for the Padres. That is way too much for one year. Let’s sign Cliff Lee and Beltre and let V-Mart go.
"Man that ball got outta here in a hurry, you know anything that travels that far oughta have a damn stewardess on it, don't you think?" - Crash Davis
ITs not for 1 year
Theo is so stupid he will move his starting LF, utility man and top prospect WITHOUT an extension?
IN the immortal words of Keyshawn….Cmon Man!!!!
Who knows if Gonzo even wants to go to Boston?
Maybe he wants to play the market. Plus, if he likes Boston and we are able to pay the extension money, then why trade for him? Just pursue him later. It’s not like someone is going to trade for him and he’s automatically gonna sign with them.
"Every night I go to bed thinking about when I’m going to play again. I dream about playing at Fenway."-Ryan Westmoreland
Twitter: @BoldandBrash
by BoldandBrash on Oct 20, 2010 6:29 PM EDT up reply actions
How is this for a plan
I know this sounds weird coming from me, seeing as I’ve been so vocal in defense of V-Mart, but …
If we believe that Iannetta is really the hitter his minor league numbers predict and and corrected BABIP hints at then …
We let V-Mart and Beltre walk.
We trade a couple prospects for Iannetta.
We put Lowrie at 3B and leave Youk at 1B.
We extend Papi to 2-3 years at a reduced salary.
With the money saved we sign Lee.
Yes, that would reduce our offense at 3B and C, but a rotation of Lee + Lester + Buchholz + whatever … ?
Wow. That’s a pretty devastating threesome and two dynamite lefties to trot out against the Yankees.
Actually if the math in my head is correct, we may not have to let both V-Mart and Beltre go to make that work or we use the extra money to shore up the bullpen.
In theory, a healthy Drew, Cameron & Ells + Kalish outfield squad would boost our outfield production over what we got last year (too many at-bats to guys like Hermida and Patterson) so that also would mitigate the decreased output at C & 3B.
And you have to expect some bounce from at least one of Lackey or Beckett. Odds are one of those guys will have a strong comeback year.
Dice-K might actually be trade-able at that point, because his remaining 2 years at $10M doesn’t seem so outrageous relative to how he pitched this last year and he might be attractive to a west coast team. You can maybe grab back some prospects for what you gave up to get Iannetta.
I'm agreeing with 75 percent of that.
I think A-Gon WILL be a Red Sox next season. A deal will get done. Ellsbury and a P (Kelly or Dice-K) will be a part of it. So will another top prospect (Nava? Lowrie? Iglesius? Rizzo? Lars?).
Youk will take over 3B.
Beltre and V-Mart will sign elsewhere.
Ortiz will renegotiate for a 2-year deal.
We’ll sign or trade for another C.
Dice-K is traded as well.
Kalish starts in AAA, but moves up during the year when Drew or Cameron get injured.
Nava gets traded (he has a his high OBP).
Doubront and Wakefield share #5 starter duties unless someone else comes in (Lee, please?)
2 good FA relievers are signed. Other not-so-great Atchison-types come in for a look.
Crawford? I don’t see it at his reported asking number (20M per), but maybe at something less.
Anthony Ranaudo excels in AA, then shows some good, if not as dominating, stuff in AAA. He makes the rotation in ’12.
Wow
If the deal was Ells, Dice (not Kelly) and Lars, then I would seriously considering doing that, even maybe if it’s Rizzo instead of Lars. And this is coming from a guy against the trade. I think that actually MIGHT be good value for one year of Gonzo. However, I don’t know if we can afford to lose Ells. After next year we would have a OF of maybe Kalish, maybe Reddick, or maybe we need to sign FAs. If we sign Werth or Crawford, then it’s not as bad.
"Every night I go to bed thinking about when I’m going to play again. I dream about playing at Fenway."-Ryan Westmoreland
Twitter: @BoldandBrash
by BoldandBrash on Oct 20, 2010 8:58 PM EDT up reply actions
There are so many different scenarios that can happen this off season
once one of the big dominos fall. If Beltre or V-Mart sign with another team, a chain reaction kicks in for the FO and everyone starts scrambling. Or if Lee, Crawford, or Werth sign first, the pressure mounts to make a move or be left out of the big boy market.
Any guesses on which one of the above five FA’s sign 1st? I’m picking Victor.
As far as the Padres are concerned, I don’t see them having a strong interest in Ellsbury. Jacoby is in his 1st year of arbitration and is expected to sign for one year at $3m +/-.
Increases in the 2nd and 3rd arbitation year and then free agency is not the type of player the cash tight Padres will be looking for. They will want the cost control guys like Kalish, Kelly, Pimentel, Iglesias, Doubront, and Rizzo or Anderson. How do they justify to their fan base that they send A-Gon ($5.5m) on his way this off season and then pay Ellsbury $3m and Matsuzaka $10m?
Yeah
there would probably have to be a third team that wanted Dice, and nobody really wants Dice.
"Every night I go to bed thinking about when I’m going to play again. I dream about playing at Fenway."-Ryan Westmoreland
Twitter: @BoldandBrash
by BoldandBrash on Oct 20, 2010 9:45 PM EDT up reply actions
only two years left
and whether his WAR supports his salary or not, his market draw probably does.
Maybe not so much as Ichiro, but Dice-K is still a rock star to certain markets. He is worth $$ to the Red Sox beyond his on-field performance. He arguably would be worth even more to a west-coast team. Especially to one that has a decent Japanese population and isn’t already selling out because he’d not only provide revenues from broadcasts into the Japanese market but also would probably provide a bump in ticket sales.
We'd probably have to pay some of the contract, which is what I don't want to do.
"Every night I go to bed thinking about when I’m going to play again. I dream about playing at Fenway."-Ryan Westmoreland
Twitter: @BoldandBrash
by BoldandBrash on Oct 21, 2010 6:04 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm thinking Lee signs first.
Either because the Rangers knock out a deal in the 15 days after the Series, or because the Yankees hand him a blank check deal right after that time period.
If I was your math homework I'd be really hard and you'd be doing me on your desk.
I'm a 7 WAR player in bed.
by TheLoneDavid on Oct 20, 2010 10:40 PM EDT up reply actions
It's no longer a 15 day window for teams to have the exclusive time to bang out a deal.
They reduced the window to 5 days after the world series starting this year.
I think you're right
There won’t be much negotiation. The Rangers will say, “Here’s a billion dollars. Please stay with us.” And he’ll say, “No, thanks. I’ll take two billion from the Yankees. Peace.”
How many times does Theo trade top prospects?
The Padres aren’t looking for Ellsbury or Dice-K, they want young prospects with a lot of team control ahead of them at a low cost, Ellsbury is about to hit Arb and take a big salary bump.
Lowrie, Iglesias, Kelly. That’s to get them to pick up the phone. Rizzo/Lars to make them ponder it. They aren’t just going to give him away, it’s a whole season of a very valuable first baseman and they actually competed this year and if it weren’t for a late season collapse/surge by SF we might be seeing them beat the Phillies instead right now. They’re listening to offers because it’s the responsible thing to do but I doubt they move him this offseason, if he goes, it’ll be at the deadline after they’ve assessed whether they are in it or not or if another team makes an offer they cannot refuse.
Theo will not make that offer, years of observation show us that. He just doesn’t make huge trade acquisition’s using top prospects. Bay? Manny was the focal point of that deal. Gagne was gotten using Doubront/Lin types, good prospects but not the top ones. Trading HanRam was the only time top prospects have gone, and Theo wasn’t even in charge when that happened.
Our top prospects usually end up pretty good, our best players were our own prospects we held onto instead of trading for Johan Santana or any other player that’s popped up over the years.
AGonz is no different. If Theo want’s him, he’ll sign him to a deal in a year without giving up anything other than a pick, he’ll happily keep the prospects, especially Rizzo since he could be our Tex/AGonz of the future.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
I think A-Gon traded somewhere this off-season
and SD knows our prospects better than anyone else’s. We are also already making overtures, if the reports are to be believed. We’re the logical choice.
A-Gon is the Texeira we missed the first time. I don’t see us missing again. It will almost certainly involve A-Gon renegotiating a deal with the Sox.
We've reportedly made a lot of overtures over a lot of players
And rarely ever does it work out that way. I can’t see Theo selling the farm, the farm he was “bridging to” in order to fill a position we already have covered. A couple years ago this would have made more sense, a couple years ago Youk was more enticing as a 3B and Lowell was in decline. He’s less enticing now and we’ve got people who can play 3B.
He is a total luxury now that we really don’t need to win. Correct me if I’m wrong but, we’ve been pretty fine without Tex. We moved on in another direction. The window for acquiring a 1B/3B has moved.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
Epstein did trade prospects in the Victor Martinez deal at the trade deadline in '09.
Justin Masterson ( 2nd rounder ’06), Nick Hagadone (1st rounder ’07) , and Bryan Price (1st rounder ’08) to the Cleveland Indians
I forgot about Hagadone
He was heralded. Masteson was alright, but we sorta knew what he was at that point and he was OK, but not great.
Catcher was also a much, much bigger need at that point. We have an excellent first baseman and a guy who can play a solid 3B in Lowrie if need be.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
How many times does Theo trade top prospects?
murphy, was theo’s first #1 draft pick and he traded him with a bunch of others (besides murph, at least one is still with the rangers) for the lights out, sure fire gagme
he traded another #1 in hanson for bay
plus, theo or not, the sox traded hanley.
arroyo was a second year guy, i believe – but of course that was for the great willie moe pinhead.
hangrove and ?? name escapes me for vmart to the indians was big. hangrove or whatever, is or was the indians #1 prospect this past spring.
Hagadone
And it’s not draft position that matters, but how well they’re regarded when dealt.
Murphy had never been anything special after leaving college. He remains that: nothing special.
Hansen was given chances in three seasons to show SOMETHING in the majors. He never did.
Hanley was, as you said, not Theo. Theo was apparently pissed about that when he got back.
Hagadone was probably the best talent at-the-time-of-trade Theo has ever moved, and he was ranked #10 on SoxProspects, coming back from TJ surgery, and having trouble finding the plate. He spent 2010 playing poorly in Double-A with a BB/9 over 6.
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Oct 21, 2010 6:22 PM EDT up reply actions
Exactly
It’s not where they were drafted, it’s where they placed in the talent pool. None of those guys at the time of the trade were heralded the way Rizzo and Kelly are now. We’ve held onto those sort of guys.
And Masterson, Hagadone and the other guy who’s name is escaping me, isn’t anywhere close to the package needed to acquire AGonz.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
Plus, Hagadone was damaged goods coming off of TJS.
That was a big risk to see if he could come back, and he has had a decent year this year.
"Every night I go to bed thinking about when I’m going to play again. I dream about playing at Fenway."-Ryan Westmoreland
Twitter: @BoldandBrash
by BoldandBrash on Oct 21, 2010 7:22 PM EDT up reply actions
Theo wasn’t a member of the organization when Hanley was traded and that’s the discussion. 1 top prospect in recent history ever traded and Theo wasn’t here when it happened. Would he have done it? Maybe. But history tells us that a blockbuster of this sort is entirely against his MO.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
Here is an idea for A-Gon (still can't believe we don't let this die)
First off, I do not see us getting him we have YOUK!! And, Youk is the man. And, all those prospects when he is a free agent in a year? The money and the prospects make the idea less than attractive.
But, let’s assume we trade for him (groan). Let Papi walk and Youk can DH and Lowrie or Beltre (if they resign him) is at third. Youk can always play 1B or 3B on any given day.
As attractive as A-Gon is with Youk he is a luxury not a necessity. Youk provides power and defense what more could we ask for? But, if we are going to ‘go for it’ then that would be a way to consider doing it. But, what a waste of Youk not at 1B.
"Man that ball got outta here in a hurry, you know anything that travels that far oughta have a damn stewardess on it, don't you think?" - Crash Davis
probably more likely with Youk's defense that
we would be hoping to spend over $20 million/year after 2011 on a DH in Gonzo. Just doesn’t make sense to me. Sure his bat would be great at Fenway, but that doesn’t mean he makes the most sense for the team.
Then why did we try to get Texeira?
We wanted Youk AND a stud 1B. That hasn’t changed especially now that we have a huge vacancy at 3B. We wanted Texeira with Lowell still on the books.
Because Lowell was at the end of his career
And two years ago Youk was a viable 3B option. Now at 32 he’s much less of one. There was a window there where acquiring someone made sense. That is now gone seeing that Lowrie is back and showing he has good major league caliber ability. Or we could re-sign Beltre. Either way we still have a good 3B that won’t cost us a whole lot compared to AGonz (Who we can just purchase next year) and Youk stays at 1B where he belongs.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
We CANNOT just purchase A-Gon next year. He will be traded this off-season.
SD isn’t going to give him up for nothing and A-Gon doesn’t carry the same value after the season starts because the new team would want to negotiate something long-term for all that investment they’re trading away. This is our chance if we want to get him.
Maybe we won’t go for it, but this is the time to do it if we ever will.
I think he meant that we can purchase him after the 2011 season.
That may be what he meant by next year. And I believe that we can just purchase him after next year. Why would he sign with a team he was traded to (had no control over) and not see what the other teams offer? For him to do it, it would probably have to be more money that he could ever imagine, which certainly would not be worth it.
"Every night I go to bed thinking about when I’m going to play again. I dream about playing at Fenway."-Ryan Westmoreland
Twitter: @BoldandBrash
by BoldandBrash on Oct 21, 2010 9:40 PM EDT up reply actions
I wager 1,000,000 points
That AGonz is on the Padres in spring training.
A team’s number 1 goal is to win,.
Right now the Padres are in a position to win, with their very marketable star Adrian. They’re listening to offers of course, if Theo offered Kelly, Iglesias and Lowrie they would definitely mull it over, it would be irresponsible not to. But that would take away from their ability to win this year and they don’t have as many opportunities to win immediately with their payroll. Win now with Adrian, or shoot this season in the foot and hope for the future?
It’s a tough decision and while maybe he has his most trade value right now, he still will have good trade value halfway through the season, and still good value at the end of the season when they tender him a contract and he turns it down and they collect their draft picks happily.
So for them, is it keep Adrian until the trade deadline, evaluate and keep/trade. Or trade him now, abandon this season and hope that the prospects they get propel them to victory in a few more years (knowing full well they would still get draft picks if they held onto him anyway)? I say they hold onto him til the trade deadline. If they have no hope, he goes. If they’re on the threshold of being good they take offers and think about it. If they’re losing he goes to highest bidder.
They don’t have much incentive to trade him now given the status of their team and the small difference in their haul between now and July/November and how much they stand to gain by keeping him.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
I agree
The difference between now and July is not huge in return for the Pads. I would argue that going into the ’10 season, they were planning on trading him at the deadline for a huge package, but then were in the midst of a surprising playoff run and decided to keep him.
If I was Jed, I’d be floating his name out there with only minimal interest, mostly to gauge his value for when/if they are out of it next summer.
A team’s number 1 goal is to win - maybe
but that is hardly ever the organizations #1 goal.
making money might be one, getting the flash of being a civic icon, getting good seats, the babes, etc – there are a bunch of owner/front office goals other than winning
And more money/babes.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
First you get the money,
then you get the power.
Then you get the women.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
Even if someone else trades for him, that doesn't mean that he will extend with them
it’s really in his best interests to go out on the free market. He has no real incentive to sign an extension with a team just because they trade for a year of him, he would be much better served to let teams bid for him. A year of him just isn’t worth the cost to the Sox.
drive up the price
"Every night I go to bed thinking about when I’m going to play again. I dream about playing at Fenway."-Ryan Westmoreland
Twitter: @BoldandBrash
by BoldandBrash on Oct 21, 2010 6:07 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm curious where you get the notion that Iannetta is an absolutely terrible defensive player
He is by no means a gold glove candidate, but he blocks balls fine, frames pitches fine, has a reputation to call a decent game. While he doesn’t necessarily throw out many runners, much of that is on Rockies pitchers, who aren’t particularly quick to the plate. I watch almost every Rockie game and have only cursed his defense once or twice. I’d say he is a perfectly average defensive player, and a significant step up from a 33 year old veteran V-Mart
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Oct 21, 2010 2:08 PM EDT reply actions
Still quite confused
because Iannetta is not mentioned in the framing article, and his blocking is pretty average, just a bit below (and I think his 2010 was improved)
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Oct 21, 2010 2:16 PM EDT up reply actions
Whoops, wrong link
He comes in at well below average both years measured, with one being truly awful.
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Oct 21, 2010 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions
I guess I'm not familar with that method much
but 2009 appears pretty trivial and 2008 was his first year as a starter. For what it is worth, he seems perfectly average.
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Oct 21, 2010 3:23 PM EDT up reply actions
I get a kick out of how much Iannetta is appreciated here, fwiw
Last offseason, we had the fabled “Catcher Wars of 2009” at Purple Row. People split in defense of Torrealba or Iannetta as the better catcher, and it devolved into a horrid debate of 4-figure comment threads each day, pitting stats folks against old-school folks. We even had to ban a regular who was at PR since the very beginning. He wasn’t banned for this specifically, but he accused the staff of groupthink propaganda for all being on the Iannetta side.
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Oct 21, 2010 5:38 PM EDT reply actions
Andrew,
Your fellow fans at Purple Row have great passion for the team and I love going to your ballpark. Would you say that the Rockies vs Sox series was the wildest most energetic series of the 2010 season in Denver?
Unfortunately, i was unable to attend any of those games personnally
I was working out of state, though I know a dozen people who did go and related pretty much what you’re suggesting. The Cards’ series had some crazy games too
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Oct 22, 2010 11:17 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
We see a player
Who has proven a lot in the minors who hasn’t ever gotten a full chance for stat normalization in the majors. We don’t have a feel for how the team feels about him exactly, but it’s perceived that the team is down on him and he might be acquired for a discounted price because of that.
We see a lot of upside in him.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
And, as outsiders, we have a certain un-bias toward him...
As a COL fan, debating Iannetta vs Torrealba going into the season, you all probably had a lot of context to base your arguments on. Context – both negative and positive. IE some of you were at games when Iannetta struck out 4 times and others were at games where he came up with a clutch hit or two.
I’m not trying to trivialize your experiences, but I think we would all agree that as fans, we tend to form opinions based on what we’ve seen ourselves, then, from what we’ve heard from those around us. So it makes sense that Andrew and other COL fans would have varying opinions. That’s the beauty of these fan forums!
All that to say, we at OTM who are arguing for or against Iannetta can’t ever have the same perspective that COL fans do. We do the best we can to evaluate the guy with some degree of impartiality and go from there.
most at purple row see the same thing
One way to view CDI is that he has been the victim of terrible timing. When he has slumped (2007, Sept 09, Apr10), the backup has one of the hottest stretches of their career. By the time iannetta starts mashing again, which has been every time he has returned from the minors, Olivo/Torrealba were firmly entrenched.
The other view is that Iannetta’s struggles have ALWAYS come after a vote of confidence. He fell flat when given the job in 07. He fell flat in 09 after being heavily touted. He fell flat this April when torrealba left. His best production has been when he needed to prove something.
I don’t think the organization really dislikes him, though I’m positive Jim Tracy does. There could be potential in regression towards the mean babip-wise, but he is a flyball hitter, so probably not that much. I don’t have the numbers, but in 2009 he seemed way too patient, found himself in two strike counts and struck out or hit weak grounders or flyballs. In 2010 he got more aggressive, sometimes too much so, and his big long swing didn’t make contact on pitchers pitches. That’s a legitimate weakness. It seemed he gets to two strikes and has little ability to turn his at bat positive
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Oct 22, 2010 11:41 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
From your years of watching Iannetta in the batters box,
which team batting philosophy might be a better match for Chris to excel with.
A team focused on plate discipline and working the count in every at bat (ex:Red Sox) or a team that is more aggressive in their at bats and come in thinking fastball and getting the front foot down early to drive that pitch even if it is the first pitch in the at bat (ex: Blue Jays). If you were a betting man , which team philosophy would you put a 100 on that it would fit Chris best?
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