Fixing the Bullpen: Free Agency is Not the Best Answer
by 0157H7 on Oct 11, 2010 8:01 AM EDT
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PrintThe bullpen has been a real, glaring area of weakness in the Theo Epstein era, but this year it was especially concerning. Of the army of relievers we trotted out, only one had an ERA below 3 (Bard), and our closer had his worst year ever - the most blown saves and highest ERA. Naturally, improving it will be a focus in the offseason. But where will the help come from?
In the past, Theo has tried a number of strategies to 'fix' the pen. He's brought in free agents off an unusually good year (Julian Tavarez and Rudy Seanez). He's signed free agents with good track records (Brendan Donnelly, Takashi Saito). He's promoted players from within the organization (Papelbon, Manny Delcarmen, Dan Bard, Craig Hansen). He's sought help abroad (Okajima). He's even converted starters to relievers, so that they can throw harder (Joel Pineiro, 2007; Papelbon, 2006, Rich Hill and Boof Bonser this year) . Some of these moves have worked well, many have not.
The reality of relieving is that it is the most inconsistent discipline in baseball. Part of this is the especially small sample sizes involved. A mediocre reliever can have a solid season in 60 innings, get a big contract in free agency, and be absolutely horrible the rest of the way, just because the team judged him off 60 innings rather . The 200 innings a typical starter would pitch is generally more indicative of their talent.
Another factor is the nature of relief pitchers. In baseball, the most talented pitchers are turned into starters, leaving the rest of the field to compete for relief work. A small class of good pitchers are able to both start and relieve, but are more suited to relief work; Papelbon is one such player who jumps out.
Finally, the players who demonstrate real talent as relievers, and show consistency year after year, are snapped up by teams and made into closers. As a result, these players aren't freely available, as they're expensive in trade and free agency. Put all these factors together, and it's clear why most teams have issues building strong bullpens year after year. We've actually been lucky, as before 2010 the Sox had good or great pens from 2007 to 2009.
Building a bullpen is basically a crapshoot - you can't really expect most of the pieces to perform the same way as last year. So what's the best strategy? My inclination is to primarily build from within. You can waste a great deal of money on career year guys in free agency, the Rudy Seanezes of the world who are destined to come crashing down; and trading for relievers is usually either swapping dreck for dreck, or trading prospects at more valuable positions for established relievers. But the Sox can get the best results for the least cost by relying on help from within the organization. Papelbon, Delcarmen, and now Bard have provided good results for the team, and though plenty of relievers haven't made it (Hansen stands out), at least they didn't cost much.
Although good help can come from outside (witness Okajima before this year, Saito, even Foulke), the team should be very careful about anyone on one of Ben's lists of free agents (lefties and righties). I would rather see what Doubront or another young guy could do. And, if all else fails, we still have Bill Hall to throw a few innings...
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War...
or WAR?
Wait 'til next/this year?
"Laser show. So relax."
by nuthinboutnuthin on Oct 11, 2010 10:33 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Which version of WAR?
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Oct 11, 2010 10:54 AM EDT up reply actions
The Edwin Starr version
Because what are the others good for?
Wait 'til next/this year?
"Laser show. So relax."
by nuthinboutnuthin on Oct 11, 2010 11:33 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
How did I not see this joke coming?
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Oct 11, 2010 12:07 PM EDT up reply actions
Amongst are principle weaponry are:
Suprise;
Fear;
Ruthless Sabremetricity;
Darnell McDonald; and
These Nifty Red Uniforms
Wait 'til next/this year?
"Laser show. So relax."
by nuthinboutnuthin on Oct 11, 2010 8:53 PM EDT up reply actions
I picked option 2
but would like to qualify it by saying that I support any strategy that consists of Julian Tavarez. God, I miss that goofy bastard.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
by Bloggy on Oct 11, 2010 8:24 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
I miss Hatchet Face too
His quote on signing with the Nationals was priceless:
“Why did I sign with the Nationals?” Tavarez said told a group of reporters. “When you go to a club at 4 in the morning, and you’re just waiting, waiting, a 600-pounder looks like J. Lo. And to me this is Jennifer Lopez right here. It’s 4 in the morning. Too much to drink. So, Nationals: Jennifer Lopez to me.”
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Oct 11, 2010 10:56 AM EDT up reply actions
He actually said that?
That’s one of the funniest things I’ve ever heard.
"Every night I go to bed thinking about when I’m going to play again. I dream about playing at Fenway."-Ryan Westmoreland
Twitter: @BoldandBrash
by BoldandBrash on Oct 11, 2010 4:02 PM EDT up reply actions
Yup. He actually said that.
HE. IS. AWESOME.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
I can do without his duckpin bowling rolls to first.
And I think Youk wanted to pound him like a cutlet a few times, too.
Fenway: "An alternate and better universe, disguised as a ballpark." --Thomas Boswell
Anyone remember
When he tried to tag Brian Roberts out at second… by running from the pitcher’s mound? That was easily my favorite Julian moment.
I love the bowling to first.
I love him pointing to first to help the infielders decide where to throw the ball on routine ground-outs. I love him pounding people in spring training, and I love watching him interact with the Japanese players.
I love that goofy bastard.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
Pointing to first doesn't actually affect the play.
Bowling it over could. Hence pissy Youk.
Fenway: "An alternate and better universe, disguised as a ballpark." --Thomas Boswell
You're thinking of
Fahrenheit 9/11
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
People forget
In the Giants game that bowling was the ONLY option to get the guy out. The ball was fielded by sexy lips close to the line, and if he threw it normally it would’ve hit the runner. So he bowled it beside him on a bang-bang play.
Sexy Lips = Julian Tavarez
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
oooo, the thought of that
makes me want to rip my eyes out!
who came up with that?
that dude is ugly
Would the Sox be better off trying to trade DiceK to an NL team and grooming Doubrant to be the 5th starter?
If so, then I think wou have to look at an FA or trade.
by The Herndon Kid on Oct 11, 2010 9:27 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
Julian was pure entertainment
Well, after reading this I repeat my thoughts – building a pen is not easy. I think you kicked the tires on trading for relief – sounds like that is not a good course of action. What we need is for us to pick up a starter (type like Dennis Eckersley comes to mind) who seems to be faultering and be smart enough to convert him to the reliever role.
“All I knew was that Dennis was a great competitor,” says manager Tony La Russa. “We put him in the bullpen to see what would happen, and [pitching coach] Dave Duncan got the idea that he’d make a great reliever.”
Read more: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/vault/article/magazine/MAG1068101/3/index.htm#ixzz123YcicKO
Here is a crazy idea; AND JUST SPITBALLING so don’t shoot me here – pick up Cliff Lee to start and try DiceK and/or if Beckett faulters as a starter then try a conversion and see what happens – if they both can only last through five that is not enough to justify staying a starter. Beckett definitely has the attitude to be a closer anyway – Something would have to give I already hear the objections – we are paying them too much – well, if they get the hook after five innings every fifth day the will kill us might as well try some value
Or, here would be a switch – the Giants eat Barry Zito’s contract or the Cubbies eat Zambrano’s (he has the competitive makeup)and we convert them- just some crazy ideas outside the box – I would like to see another team eat a contract in our favor and we try something different that works
"Man that ball got outta here in a hurry, you know anything that travels that far oughta have a damn stewardess on it, don't you think?" - Crash Davis
You're going to run into crazy ego issues there.
And picking up Cliff Lee is an awfully expensive and roundabout way to improve the pen.
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Oct 11, 2010 9:52 AM EDT up reply actions
Yup I agree with all that but it does block the Yankees :)
I think the more I think about this the best course of action is a few FA’s and maybe a trade or two and we have the internal options to try out too. This spring should be interesting
"Man that ball got outta here in a hurry, you know anything that travels that far oughta have a damn stewardess on it, don't you think?" - Crash Davis
The Sox can't make moves to block the MFYs all the time.
They don’t have the resources to compete with that strategy over the long run.
Fenway: "An alternate and better universe, disguised as a ballpark." --Thomas Boswell
The myth of the inconsistent bullpen.
A point I disagree with in your post e-coli is that pen arms are by their nature inconsistent. The truth is that the smaller the sample the larger the variation, but underneath that unavoidable statistical fact there are relief pitchers who are pretty consistent-look at Downs, Frasor, Pedro Feliciano,Balfour…(all FAs this year). With guys like these you will see some years out of wack-but they basically follow their FIPs, have reasonable BB rates, etc. Basically what you see is what you get from guys like this. Right now our pen is in such a bad state that we need multiple arms, preferably the most reliable kind who do have “down” years but are not propped up/relied upon because they have had lucky ones (see RamRam). We cannot cover the holes with purely internal options, although internal options need to be used/considered.
Just saw Ben's post
which also mentions Feliciano/Downs…so I obviously agree-there are several good FA targets more than in past years. Usually I agree that FA pen arms are a waste but combine the quality in this year’s market with our pen’s holes and I am for it this off season.
+1
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Oct 11, 2010 10:58 AM EDT up reply actions
Do nothing?
The Sox cannot go into the season with a bullpen of Papplebon/Bard/Atichison and a bunch of non-tenders. They have to add a solid arm to the pen and Theo has said as much. I believe they will wait until teams snap up the closers, or projected closers and then dive in the market. Yes, there is risk as always, but if team is not commiting closer money, and they won’t, do we really think a 2-3 year deal for a good set-up man is going to hamstring the team financially?
It appears the entire bullpens of the Rays and Jays are avaialble, so the Sox baseball people should have ample evidence of how these guys do against the AL and the AL East in particular. Soriano will get a closers job somewhere, but the rest are up for grabs.
To your larger point...
Free agency is never the best option. In a perfect world, teams would have ample rookies and young, inexpensive talent without the need to dip into the expensive and risky world of free agency. But that is not the case in the real world, especially with the Sox, Yankees and other financially secure teams that are shooting to win a pennant.
Theo has done OK with free agents. No real bombs. Foulke flamed out, but no 2004 WS without him, Drew is expensive but a decent player over his term. Ortiz, nuff said. Saito, fine for a year. Many lesser FA’s, especially in the bullpen, have not panned out, but that is life in the big leagues. Remeber, Gagne was a trade.
Have you looked at Theo's history with free agent Relievers?
There have been plenty of duds, enough that I’d be wary of them signing just about anyone in free agency.
Adrian Beltre is why we can't have healthy outfielders.
But most of them have been cheap mistakes.
Fenway: "An alternate and better universe, disguised as a ballpark." --Thomas Boswell
mistakes, non the less
mistakes getting bums or folks that don’t produce in bean town
but the biggest errors have been the ones we let go and have all star type performances in the following season.
and then there’s gagne
Spending league minimum on roster-filler arms that don't perform =/= a mistake
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Oct 12, 2010 4:04 PM EDT up reply actions
It does when you have no one else, so when those risky veterans bomb your bullpen sucks and the team loses tons of games because of it.
The mistake is a budget one in that case
But the individual moves, which were being questioned here, were not.
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Oct 12, 2010 11:27 PM EDT up reply actions
Can't give up
Yes, many, actually most moves have not worked out. But Theo can’t simply throw up his hands and just see were the cards land, that is a Lou Gorman move. The best part about the Theo era, apart from the overall success, is the fact they keep pushing forward; when something fails, they try again or move in a new direction. That is good management in any business.
They have to utilize FA this year for the pen, regardless if it is ideal or not.
Our pen is awful, and who do we have that can help?
The certified ambassador of all things good and great, here at OTM.
DO NOT OVERPAY FOR BELTRE !!!
TRADE ELLSBURY THIS WINTER !!!
One of the many, proud OTM'ers that cannot stand Josh Beckett.
It is/was especially with relievers that most underperformed their contracts.
Now it’s becoming that way for all positions. I do think that at some point (if it’s the best way to improve the team) a team has to bite the bullet and spend on the pen. At least if the team tries to go at it every year like the sox.
"Every night I go to bed thinking about when I’m going to play again. I dream about playing at Fenway."-Ryan Westmoreland
Twitter: @BoldandBrash
by BoldandBrash on Oct 11, 2010 4:11 PM EDT up reply actions
Most teams do not spend big $$ on their bullpens
and I don’t see the Sox doing it this year either. They will check the bargain bin again.
The Competitive Balance Tax for the 2011 season kicks in at $178 mil. Because the Sox reportedly went over the limit in 2010 by just a bit, this years tax will be 30% for any dollars spent over $178 mil. The FO philosophy has always been to try and stay under this tax number, so I don’t see our payroll going over $178 mil in ’11.
I am not counting on more than one bullpen arm coming from FA unless the FO decides to sign (or go to arb.) and trade Papelbon. Pap’s will cost $10-11 mil in ’11.
Most of our pen the last few years has been made up of low cost pitchers ( $500k +/- each) with are few exceptions:
2010: Papelbon $9.35 mil, Okajima $2.8 mil, Ramon S Ramirez $1.155 mil, Delcarman $.905 mil, Wakefield $4.05 mil (part time pen)
2009:Papelbon $6.25 mil, Okajima $1.75 mil, Saito $1.5 mil, Javier Lopez $1.35
I see the FO going after Downs or one of the best RHR FA and then looking for the diamond in the rough types with lots of invites to spring training.
I’d prefer the FO trade some prospects and make a play for the unhappy starter, Greinke. He has come out and said he is not happy playing for a basement team and wants to play for a winner ASAP. He has two years left at $13.5/yr. Sure, I’d love to have Cliff Lee but he will be looking for CC type $$ and 5-7 yrs. The Sox will only get in to help drive the price up.
If scoring on Greinke means we trade Daisuke or move him to the pen, so be it. Two years of Greinke at $13.5/yr is a steal and there would also a chance to extend.
Interesting idea to consider...but the Royals are probably going to want to much...
Besides Greinke, Butler and Soria are the only other KC players that drive attendance (that I can think of).
Well, how much is too much?
When guys come out publicly and say they want out like Greinke did, more often than not, it’s better to move him.
I just don't think they have any motivation to deal him.
They need his star power, and they’ve already got a ridiculously stacked farm system.
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Oct 11, 2010 3:57 PM EDT up reply actions
Maybe not, but Greinke is not a happy player
and with comments like the ones below, he may be shopped a bit.
Keep This in Mind
Baseball contracts are guaranteed, crappy or not. In this case, the contract extension Greinke signed, the Royals are playing somewhat with house money. The rest of his contract goes like this: 11: $13.5M, 12: $13.5M. Though you do know that. :-)
However, in knowing that, the Royals know that his contract is cheap for the bigger teams that have a decent payroll/budget and/or have a good farm system. Like Ben said, KC’s farm system is insanely stacked, and they know they can get away with robbery in a trade if they wanted to.
Greinke isn’t completely happy, but he’s not hating KC either. If he wanted out that badly, we would have heard from him again and again.
KC Royals FO is all ears on Greinke offers.
Link to MLB trade rumors and Buster Olney
My truck is backed up with Doubront, Reddick, and Bowden already on it.
How much more would you add?
Names I wouldn't be opposed to making available:
Navarro
Pimentel
Tejeda
Middlebrooks
Maybe Iglesias/Lavarnway (I believe in Lowrie!)
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Oct 16, 2010 11:39 PM EDT up reply actions
It was rumored that the FO was willing to give
five prospects to get King Felix from Seattle before he signed his extension. I put Greinke on his level and we’d have him for two full years at $13.5/yr.
Back the truck up….
I’d like to protect Stolmy for one more season but if it means getting Greinke, put him on the truck with Doubront and Reddick.
I think Greinke's probably not nearly quite as much value as Felix
but yeah, a lot. Very little I wouldn’t send.
Payroll
What are the Sox commited to for 2011 right now? I thought it was around $120 mil. That leavves a ton of room to play with. I don’t see the Sox going wild on the bullpen and siging 2 or 3 of the bigger names. One solid arm to go along with Bard/Papplebon will make a ton of difference.
$100 million-or-so n/i arbitration or renewed contracts
They have holes at: 3B, DH, C, at least 2 RP, and will be looking to make something happen long-term in the OF most likely.
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Oct 11, 2010 3:55 PM EDT up reply actions
This is kinda off topic (sorry)
1. Let’s say we pick up the ortiz option. Is that like 11mil?
2. Somehow we do trade for Iannetta. How much does he make?
3. We resign Beltre. I have absolutely no concept of what he could make. Is 10mil/year realistic?
4. We get Crawford/Werth for something like 16-18mil/year.
5. Adding that up is about 40mil, if I’m correct.
6. We would have about 30 to spend on the pen, maybe like 15 if we bring Paps back.
"Every night I go to bed thinking about when I’m going to play again. I dream about playing at Fenway."-Ryan Westmoreland
Twitter: @BoldandBrash
by BoldandBrash on Oct 11, 2010 4:17 PM EDT up reply actions
Here's the best chart I've seen for future Sox payroll:
/
Link to Sox Payroll Obligations;
Like Ben said, add in arbitration players.
Beltre is probably even higher, but I'll go 12 to be conservative.
100 + 12.5 + 12 + 2.5 + 17 = 143
+ 2.5 (Buchholz, Lowrie, Bard, Salty) = 145
Note that this ISN’T a Luxury Tax figure. That is an AAV which will bump up Lester and Pedroia by a decent bit and needs $10 million in benefits tacked on. But Chris Iannetta is absolutely the “silver bullet” salary-wise which could leave the Sox with about 15 million to spend on the bullpen n/i Papelbon.
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Oct 11, 2010 4:30 PM EDT up reply actions
If he's still on the team.
"Every night I go to bed thinking about when I’m going to play again. I dream about playing at Fenway."-Ryan Westmoreland
Twitter: @BoldandBrash
by BoldandBrash on Oct 11, 2010 5:26 PM EDT up reply actions
Either way he goes to arbitration,
unless the sides agree before February. With his injury this year, the Sox would be selling low on him if they sell this off season. Now if they feel that Crawford or Werth are coming in, they may just decide to make room by shopping Ells.
Cafardo said 30% but what does he know?
?
Link to Nick Cafardo in July post
Anyone have a better link to confirm?
Just to math it
The Sox paid the luxury tax every year from 2004-2007, bringing their figure up to 40%. They did not pay in 2008 or 2009. The salary tax drops to 30% in year #1 under the threshold, stalls for a year, and then drops to 22.5% when the club is under for the third year.
By going over, however, the Sox stopped that downward trend and paid 30% this year, raising them to 40% next year.
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Oct 11, 2010 4:40 PM EDT up reply actions
Just did the math
Thanks for the chart, Went9.
If I plug in $15 for V-Mart (he is a must) and $12 for Ortiz, $10 for Papplebon and bump up a few players, that puts the Sox payroll at @$143mil, $35mil short of the $178 threshold. I’m not saying they have go right to the limit, but they have a lot of flexibility to sign a couple of relievers and Beltre if they want to. On the other hand, they could opt to make a big splash with Crawford/Werth and still be OK. Then they still have the Drew and Ortiz contracts coming off in 2012. It looks like a pretty well managed plan to me.
I don't think the Sox are going to make a serious offer to Victor Martinez
All the signs show that they are going to part ways. There are hints that they want someone who with better defensive skills..
I like Victor Martinez, I think he will get a good contract on the open market. I just don’t see him and Beltre coming back to Fenway.
by superferret on Oct 12, 2010 12:03 PM EDT up reply actions
Really?
I see V-mart as the key. if I could have either Beltre or him, I would chose V-mart because he fills multiple roles as catcher, 1B and DH. I believe his defensive liabilites, whatever those are, are more than offset by his solid production. He is also the #3 hitter.
If not Victor, who? Buck? Don’t start the Ianetta thing again.
Saying he fills a role at 1B and DH is pretty sketchy.
DH especially
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Oct 12, 2010 6:35 PM EDT up reply actions
right, defensively and offensively, he's an average 1B at best
DH I just don’t get. I guess I could see him on a 4 year contract where, if he was having trouble catching everyday, he could split time between catching and DHing. That could have some value.
I’d rather have Beltre. Although I’d like both.
Oh, and Iannetta. Again.
Because he is the right choice.
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Oct 12, 2010 6:35 PM EDT up reply actions
Who may or may not be available
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Oct 12, 2010 10:37 PM EDT up reply actions
The Sox and Rockies talked about him at length this year.
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Oct 12, 2010 11:29 PM EDT up reply actions
That doesn't mean anything
The Sox talk to lots of teams about lots of players. Players’ names often come up in rumors.
The Rockies have to make a decision on Miguel Olivo’s option. And they’d need a replacement for Iannetta, if they decide to move him. I’m not so sure Vic is that replacement. Iannetta doesn’t cost much, so the Rockies don’t have to move him.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Oct 13, 2010 7:31 AM EDT up reply actions
I think what he's trying to say
is that he’s not untouchable. It’s not like we’d be trading for Pujols. We could get Iannetta for something; it’s just that the price is unknown.
"Every night I go to bed thinking about when I’m going to play again. I dream about playing at Fenway."-Ryan Westmoreland
Twitter: @BoldandBrash
by BoldandBrash on Oct 13, 2010 10:45 AM EDT up reply actions
If he's still available
Assuming Iannetta was available during the season, that doesn’t mean he’s available now. Circumstances change.
But, let’s assume Iannetta is available. His price goes way up if Vic signs with another team. In other words, the Sox have to get their catching situation sorted quickly.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Oct 13, 2010 11:27 AM EDT up reply actions
I personally would rather have Iannetta, but I can agree with your point.
The reason I don’t think they will make huge play for him is that they offered him a 2 year deal near the end of the season. Obviously they will start the negotiations low, but if they were really comfortable with him and had him as the priority, I think they would have started at at least three years. They may end up signing him, but I don’t see the sox going for 4-5 years, at the very most 3 and a club option.
"Every night I go to bed thinking about when I’m going to play again. I dream about playing at Fenway."-Ryan Westmoreland
Twitter: @BoldandBrash
by BoldandBrash on Oct 12, 2010 7:27 PM EDT up reply actions
They made a two-year offer as a negotiating ploy for Iannetta.
If they make no offer, Iannetta’s side has more leverage. By making one that is rejectable they appear to hold out the possibility of continuing negotiations with V-Mart if Iannetta falls through.
In reality I think V-Mart is gone if they can get Iannetta.
If the Sox show no effort to sign V-Mart, Iannetta's side has more leverage
because it will be obvious the Sox need outside help at C when they come calling.
If the Sox have an offer out there to V-Mart, they appear to be looking for the best-value deal, which Iannetta’s side will have to respect during negotiations.
almost all position players could play dh and first bag
dh and first base in 2011 isn’t a big deal to fill
besides why couldn’t beltre play dh and first?
he’s never needed to do that because 3rd base is far more important and/or harder to fill.
using your logic; beltre is the better player
Here's where a bullpen arm may come from in the second half of next year:
Arizona Fall League to open schedule Tuesday, Oct 12.
Red Sox players are on the Peoria Javelinas: 5 pitchers and three position players.
Bullpen Hopefuls:
Seth Garrison (25)
Jason Rice (24)
Dan Turpen (24)
Eammon Portice (23)
Of those
Jason Rice is the only one I can see realistically getting a shot in 2011.
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Oct 11, 2010 3:56 PM EDT up reply actions
And I wouldn't give them any more credit than Bowden/Richardson at this point, necessarily.
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Oct 11, 2010 3:56 PM EDT up reply actions
It seems that with bullpens,
you bring a young pitcher up for a quick look and maybe catch lightening in a bottle.
The bullpen we open the season with in 2011 will not be the same seven guys we end the season with.
Bullpens tend to evolve over the course of the season. Anyone of these kids could break out in the second half of ’11.
Or they may crash and burn
That’s the nature of building from within, especially for bullpens. Then again the same applies for FAs, so who knows.
It’s certainly cheaper to build within, that’s for sure.
The idea of signing Crawford is really starting to grow on me.
The certified ambassador of all things good and great, here at OTM.
DO NOT OVERPAY FOR BELTRE !!!
TRADE ELLSBURY THIS WINTER !!!
One of the many, proud OTM'ers that cannot stand Josh Beckett.
It bounces around for me.
On the one hand, good player, young-player skills, and we need an OF.
On the other hand, he can’t hit lefties, and has mediocre OBP.
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Oct 11, 2010 5:02 PM EDT up reply actions
What kind of defense would you take in exchange for a Youk-like OBP?
Are we talking Bill Hall-bad, Jason Bay-bad, Manny Ramirez-bad, or Julio Lugo-bad?
Fenway: "An alternate and better universe, disguised as a ballpark." --Thomas Boswell
Does that come with Youk like power?
The guy would have to hit like Manny did for me to accept Bill Hall D.
"Every night I go to bed thinking about when I’m going to play again. I dream about playing at Fenway."-Ryan Westmoreland
Twitter: @BoldandBrash
by BoldandBrash on Oct 11, 2010 5:30 PM EDT up reply actions
I go back and forth on it as well.
I like Werth, but with Boras factored in, I don’t like that idea.
The certified ambassador of all things good and great, here at OTM.
DO NOT OVERPAY FOR BELTRE !!!
TRADE ELLSBURY THIS WINTER !!!
One of the many, proud OTM'ers that cannot stand Josh Beckett.
Werth Vs Crawford
Dont get me wrong Id love to have either of these guys. But if I had to choose id say Crawford. We have seen how much speed helps with teams like Tampa Bay. Signing Crawford and adding another base stealer would really put more pressure on opposing defenses.
Another thing to conisider:
BJ Upton will be a free agent after next year, maybe the Rays are willing to trade him after a rough year.
and I don't expect his overall hitting to be as good as it was this year.
I think he’d be like a .800-.820 OPS. Plus, I suppose his D would be “wasted” in Fenway, but that’s not necessarily a reason not to get him.
"Every night I go to bed thinking about when I’m going to play again. I dream about playing at Fenway."-Ryan Westmoreland
Twitter: @BoldandBrash
by BoldandBrash on Oct 11, 2010 5:30 PM EDT up reply actions
So who is the better investment
Werth for Bay money
or Crawford at 18-20 per ?
I’d argue neither
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It depends how many years Werth is,
and it depends how many years Crawford is. I’d probably give the edge to Crawford if it was 5 years as opposed to werth for 4-5. And I’d give the edge to Werth if it was only a 3 year deal as opposed to Crawford for 6-7. Now you see why I originally wanted to stay away from those two.
"Every night I go to bed thinking about when I’m going to play again. I dream about playing at Fenway."-Ryan Westmoreland
Twitter: @BoldandBrash
by BoldandBrash on Oct 11, 2010 5:39 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I'm with you on neither
I like Crawford, but I think he’s way overrated and not worth 18-20 million at all. I think I’d prefer Werth a bit, I’d just be more hesitant about giving him a long term contract.
werth will get more $ than crawford per year
they both will be looking for a lot of years and will get ’em.
they both will surprise the monster at how much mlb is willing to pay
I'm not saying you're wrong...
…but the team that pays Werth more than Crawford should fire its front office.
Wait 'til next/this year?
"Laser show. So relax."
by nuthinboutnuthin on Oct 12, 2010 4:28 PM EDT up reply actions
so your saying werth is
werthless than crawford?
i don’t know. i know crawford had a monster year of WAR
but i read that some fa folks think werthless is werthmore than crawford.
seriously.
I will not pay you to never make those puns again
But I was strongly considering it.
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Oct 12, 2010 5:27 PM EDT up reply actions
Really, you could have said it much simpler...
How much is Jayson Werth?
Are we talking Kevin Cash?
(OK, I’ll leave quietly.)
Well,
… the exchange rate from Kevin Cash to Werthwhile currency is pretty steep.
Wait 'til next/this year?
"Laser show. So relax."
by nuthinboutnuthin on Oct 13, 2010 1:06 AM EDT up reply actions
Right now, I'd say Cash is next to Werthless
And wouldn’t try to get Cash even on credit or for penny stocks.
Fenway: "An alternate and better universe, disguised as a ballpark." --Thomas Boswell
what is david price?
norm cash is ok
just bring your eddie money
curt schilling will work in england
Whatever...
It would take a hundred Brad Pennys to equal one John Buck.
Wait 'til next/this year?
"Laser show. So relax."
by nuthinboutnuthin on Oct 13, 2010 2:35 PM EDT up reply actions
He'll probably get that, tops
in part because of how much the Mets are currently regretting the Jason Bay deal.
Not for our bullpen
but not far away from seeing time in Boston is Casey Kelly. He’s the fifth pitcher for the Red Sox in the Arizona Fall League. Good story in the ProJo today by Dan Barbarisi about Kelly keeping it real and in perspective.
Link to Providence Journal/ Casey Kelly
Happy to hear that his fastball is clocking at 96+ in the intructionals at Ft Myers….and he’s still stretching out with more innings to come in the Arizona Fall League.
Is he on the 40 man?
You’re right, he might not be that far away. If he comes out of the gate hot, he’d probably be promoted like Lars. And then if he’s decent enough, maybe he makes a spot start. There are IF’s involved in that, though.
"Every night I go to bed thinking about when I’m going to play again. I dream about playing at Fenway."-Ryan Westmoreland
Twitter: @BoldandBrash
by BoldandBrash on Oct 11, 2010 5:33 PM EDT up reply actions
No need unless fluke comes in
and wants one of our starting five to meet Tommy John. It happens, heaven forbid.
And he is high on the starting pitching depth charts. Ideally 2012 or ’13 but shit happens.
He's clearly not ready, but . . .
From what I recall, the peripherals were much better than the final line gives him credit for. So he had a “not great” year, but it wasn’t a “bad” year, either, being just 20 and facing AA hitters.
Fenway: "An alternate and better universe, disguised as a ballpark." --Thomas Boswell
right. agree
that’s true according to sports writers, who we all know, are always truthful and correct.
allegedly he has a couple of very good pitches – curve and tailing down fastball.
i’m a big fan of a sinking fastball.
he sounds like he could be ready for the sox’ mlb bullpen before the starting staff.
Was also dealing with an injury and newly-improved stuff.
It can be hard to get used to your fastball moving differently and faster when you’re testing it against guys in Double-A
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Oct 12, 2010 5:28 PM EDT up reply actions
agree
he’s doing good, but not fast enough, i guess.
there’s nothing wrong with being a starter in 2013
wait until he’s all star ready – then we get 6 years of the irishman under our control
yeah exactly
then he’ll still be what… 24?
I’d say if he comes in all barrels blazing and destroys this coming year, he has a remote shot at a single spot start in 2011. I can’t imagine him having a shot at a real starting job before 2013- in part because he just switched to full time pitcher this year and is going to need a few years to build his innings count.
Kelly pitched to the Sox's predetermined limit in 2009.
He even went beyond what they had intended in order to let him pitch in the Futures game.
I don’t think his innings limit in ’09 had any real connection to the shortstop vs. pitcher situation.
Fenway: "An alternate and better universe, disguised as a ballpark." --Thomas Boswell
no maybe not
but in any case, he’s not pitched over 95 innings this year (which will change today). He’s going to have to build up his innings count regardless of why it is.
It's a crapshoot
Like we all know. Completely hit or miss and there’s no right way to build a bullpen. Honestly, I’d prefer seeing a team build within and then drop in a few decent FAs here and there, than go exclusively one way or another. You don’t want to chain yourself to waiting around on prospects to develop, nor do you want to sink a ton of money to fix it either.
Plus, in going completely one way or another, a problem is created, forcing the team to go the opposite route to some degree to fix said problem. So for example, if a team wants to wait on several prospects it may use in the bullpen, then it forces itself to build it’s bullpen in the FA market. Surely, they’ll overpay in someway or one or a few of those FAs don’t pan out. What’s a team to do? Wait for those prospects or call them up ASAP (which itself, causes issues).
It’s a vicious and messy cycle, and I’m sure everybody sees that. So you have to mix it up.
I wish we could get SP Yu Darvish. I know we don't need SP (unless we trade Dice-K)...
He’s 6-5 and is the most dominant pitcher in Japan at only 24 after turning pro out of high school. He consistently throws 200+ innings per year with a sub-2.00 ERA for a crummy team. He’s half-Japanese, and considered westernized (or at least Hollywood-ized) with a Japanese celebrity wife – an actress, I think.
He throws mostly in the 93-94 range, but with an occasional fastball that tops off at 97MPH (although he threw a 100 MPH fastball in the 2009 World Baseball Classic). He has a great slider, cutter, two-seamer, change, curve, and even a screwball. I recently read about him in a book about Japanese baseball (You Gotta Have Wa – newly updated edition).
He’d be worth it if we could trade Dice-K. I read somewhere that he’s being asked about.
Oh but he's a celebrity of sorts...
…and you know where they all go. If you guessed the MFY, you sir win a prize.
However, the way the Red Sox have promoted in the Eastern Hemisphere, it’s possible. I know the Yankees have to some degree, but have they to the degree the Red Sox have? I don’t think so, but at the same time, I honestly don’t know.
Plus remember all that posting fee and crap, that’ll be a pain in a rear. Also, we can forget, his wife I’m sure will play a role…and we all know how that worked out.
If I had a choice then I would rather sign Lee not Crawford or Werth
Here is my reasoning/assumptions:
1. We will resign Beltre (so there is the power answer don’t really need Werth or Crawford).
2. We will resign V-Mart (what other option is there?)
3. We have enough options in the OF that we do not need to spend $$ there this year. Other needs are more pressing. Ellsbury should be given another year – after 2011 Cameron and Drew come off the books – so, I guess if we did get Crawford or Werth it is buying for the future and that would be the rationale??
4. We wil pickup the option on Big Papi (still more power)
Why Cliff Lee?
5. I think with Lee, Lester, Buch and Lackey you have a great shot at 6-8 innings for most starts – barring an injury. Consistent starters, well, that becomes a bullpen changer right there. Then, you have Beckett as the 5th starter. Send the Dice-man to the pen and let him throw 50-80 innings this coming year – heck, he is not much more durable than that anyway…Or, if one of the 5 gets hurt then you have the Dice-man to step up.
6. With that said – I would love to see him stay in Texas and the West or go to the NL if he does not end up in Boston. He has pitched in both leagues – I imagine he prefers the NL..
"Man that ball got outta here in a hurry, you know anything that travels that far oughta have a damn stewardess on it, don't you think?" - Crash Davis
Only thing is...
Are we going to be willing to pay more for Lee than the Yanks are? From my understanding it def. seems like the Yanks are going to be in the bidding.
I don't see any team outbidding the MFY on Lee
The only reason I see the MFY going for Lee is that the re-signing of Jeter and the pursuit of Crawford supersedes the pursuit of Lee. However, the MFY need Lee more than Lee needs the MFY. If the MFY had any sense, they would give Jeter a take or leave it contract of 4 years, 12 million, which is being super nice for an obvious fading player, who is going to see his defensive skills follow his hitting skills.
For any southpaw, I would be hesitant pitching with the short porch in right field in the house that Bloomberg built for half of the pitcher’s starts.
by superferret on Oct 12, 2010 12:00 PM EDT up reply actions
Why on earth would the Yankees let the pursuit of Carl Crawford interfere with their pursuit of Cliff Lee?
Gardner provides 90% of Crawford’s production for around 1/30th the price. Signing Crawford makes no sense. With Javy leaving and Pettitte with one foot out the door there is a legitimate need for a SP. I’d say there’s a 0% chance they sign Crawford at the expense of Lee.
Strikeouts are boring- Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.
by CasanovaWong on Oct 12, 2010 12:17 PM EDT up reply actions
Maybe not 90%
But yeah, Gardner gives the Yankees no reason to pursue Crawford.
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Oct 12, 2010 12:29 PM EDT up reply actions
Gardner is trade bait..
Gardner will be used as trade bait for the AAAA teams out there..
I like Gardner, I think the MFYs should keep him, but Crawford has been on the MFYs for some time. They are going to heavily pursue him and Lee in the off season, and use Gardner as bait for starting pitching to bullpen help.
We will see..
i would think ganderson would be the bait
but, one or the other most likely will be gone next year.
knowing the mfy and ca$hman, they’ll probably get roy halliday for mandy gandy.
Of course they could sign both or all
But I know they will sign Cliff Lee, just like I knew they would sign CC. The real question is what do they do after that. They really need a starter (Lee) and a DH. They may make a move for Adam Dunn. And never mind the talk about him wanting to play in the field. Of course he wants this, he’s a baseball player and his value as player is much higher as a fielder (as bad as everyone says he is) than a DH. If the Yankees offer millions more, he jumps and I who could blame him.
Lee to Yankees
I have never been more sure of a FA siging than Cliff Lee to the Yankees. After the Texeira debacle, we know the Yankees get the player they want. If I was a player agent, I would give the Yankees the last look at any player because they simply have much more money to spend than any other team.
not always the case
we outbid and got julio sluggo over them.
i don’t remember the fo of the present ownership out bidding the myf when the mfy were serious regarding a free agent. hmmm.
cliff lee would put the mfy significantly higher over the cap, as i don’t think much comes off of their books this off season.
there should be a cap on the cap – after you have blown past the cap, you should have to stop at another point, maybe give up a higher luxury fee and a couple off testicles.
i don’t know, just something to think about
I think they should either just say screw it, spend as much as you want
or put on a 100% luxury tax. I don’t like this stupid half-assed method.
agreed
wether we like it or not, – like sloan said about what is good for general motors is good for the usa; – the same thing applies to the mfy.
the mfy will always have the last say in dealings involving money and mlb profit.
fortunately, for us sox fans, the sox have a lot of influence, along with the other big market teams – chicago and la
Let's hope the Yankees offer Lee a better deal than A-Fraud got.
I’m thinking 12/360 or so should do the trick—especially after extending Jeter for 7/245.
Fenway: "An alternate and better universe, disguised as a ballpark." --Thomas Boswell
Yankees and Lee
Lee is almost a lock for the Yanks. They know their pitching rotation is below that of almost all the other post season teams. When they put their eye on someone they are going to get them. And Lee reportedly would love to be a Yankee
His job is easier in the NL
But then he also has to hit. It also depends on how much he wants to be in a big media market all the time, as well as the money thing.
For a short contract (≤ 3 years), yes, absolutely bring him to Boston. But I don’t want another Lackey-like contract that, coupled with Dice-K, will block the development of the rather nice starter arms that are gathering in A-AA right now.
The other issue is that we will need at least one OF arm in the next year to replace Cameron and Drew, even if we assume Kalish is ready in 2012.
Fenway: "An alternate and better universe, disguised as a ballpark." --Thomas Boswell
“Cliff,” our source said, “would go to Siberia if they offered him the biggest contract.”
I don’t know how true it is, but I like the quote a lot. If it’s true, the Sox could certainly try, but I’d imagine the Yankees have more need and money to get it done. In any case, Lee is one of my favorite pitchers, but I’d be hesitant if it looks like he’s going to get the Sabathia-style 8 year contract he’s looking for. I’d certainly want to be in the bidding for a lot per year, but once it gets past 5 years, I’d be getting moe hesitant.
Can we get the Yomiuri Giants to offer up a Sabathia-style contract?
As for a Sabathia deal, the guy’s already 32. Do you really want to try to lock him up for seven or eight years at 20MM/yr?
Fenway: "An alternate and better universe, disguised as a ballpark." --Thomas Boswell
no, no i don't
but that doesn’t mean someone else with cash to burn won’t be willing to go close to that.
Hmm. Not the best use of dollars
But hey, back in the day you could found a start-up called setfiretopilesofmoney.com and get $100 million in venture capital, so anything’s possible if people are stupid enough.
Fenway: "An alternate and better universe, disguised as a ballpark." --Thomas Boswell
You can't have two southpaws in the starting rotation..
It shows how good a pitcher Lester has become for a southpaw to have his numbers at Fenway. The Cliff Lee that the Sox would be hypothetically signing for the largest contract south of Barry Zito’s signing, won’t be the same Cliff Lee having one Cy Young Award winning game, and the next a Cy Worst game and bomb out.
If the Sox are going to have another Southpaw, they need a strikeout master like Lester.
Lee is a great pitcher. The money he is going to get will obscene. However, the Sox need more of a righty version of Lee..
The Sox will have a go for Lee, because they have to, because they have to compete against the MFYs, who pretty much want Lee very very badly. I think the MFY are terrified of the guy.
by superferret on Oct 12, 2010 11:54 AM EDT up reply actions
A lefty who gets contact that leads to a high groundball percentage
Could be just as effective as Lester at Fenway. The only issue is you don’t want somebody who will give up a lot of airballs, because that’s when things get dicey.
Fenway: "An alternate and better universe, disguised as a ballpark." --Thomas Boswell
it will be incredibly big bucks for lee
close to cc’s contract.
an older lee verse a big fat cc (age at signing time)
texas will be heavy in on the bidding and if the phils lose again, they may be aggressive
and who can predict what the ny door mets do
angels will ante up.
tigers? white sox? la doggers?
I don't know his contract but a reliever that interests me is..
Jose Contreas.. Sure he is more Julian Tavarez than Joaquim Soria, He has pitch horribly at Fenway, but there is something about him, that intrigues me
A Jared Carrabis tweet said that the sox are shopping Scutaro.
"Every night I go to bed thinking about when I’m going to play again. I dream about playing at Fenway."-Ryan Westmoreland
Twitter: @BoldandBrash
Seems premature to me
I’d love for Lowrie to be handed the starting SS job outright, but Scutaro would be an extremely valuable 4th infielder, and would fill in just fine if we have any injuries. I don’t know why the Sox would trade him unless they were getting something great in return, or had other moves in the works.
well he is still owed $6.5 million
which is quite a bit to pay for the bench if they’re pretty confident Lowrie will be the everyday shortstop. Could be they’re just dangling to gauge interest, or could be trying to save up pennies for signings they deem more important.
nothing wrong with window shopping
everyone gets shopped
everyone must get shopped
didn’t bob dylan have a song about getting shopped?
Mel Brooks, History of the World, Part 1
“Of course ya do it. Everybody does it. I just did it, and I’m ready to do it again.” – King Louis
Seems like the origin may have just been Gordon Edes looking at the possibility on ESPN.com
But it still makes a lot of sense.
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Oct 15, 2010 12:50 PM EDT up reply actions
This makes sense Plus, Scutaro has two good years as a starter now under his belt.
I would think he intends to start and would not want to ride the pine. He has proven himself and should fetch a decent trade from a team that is in need of a good proven and reliable SS. Otherwise, you have Lowrie riding the pine and I think the Sox want to try him out for a full season – both players have proven they can start.
"Man that ball got outta here in a hurry, you know anything that travels that far oughta have a damn stewardess on it, don't you think?" - Crash Davis
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