Fixing the Red Sox Bullpen: Lefties
by Ben Buchanan on Oct 10, 2010 8:00 AM EDT
in News
Email
PrintMoving on from yesterday with the righties, this time we take a look at the lefties. With Oki likely on the way out, and Felix Doubront's situation entirely unclear, the Sox are going to need some southpaw help.
Joe Beimel - Beimel has been keeping his ERA down the last few years despite pretty much everything else getting worse. Don't pay for luck, even if he's managed to do it in Coor's.
Randy Choate - It wasn't the best year for Choate ERA-wise, but otherwise he's been his same-old consistent self. Choate could be a very decent third or fourth member of a pen overlooked by the masses, especially with his big ground ball rate in Fenway.
Scott Downs - Everyone's favorite trade deadline target, Downs comes onto the market after a lucky season, but he's still been very good for the last four years. Downs could easilly play the role of "the lefty" out of the pen, and let the Red Sox keep Doubront on the starting track. The only question is, will the soon-to-be-35-year-old cost as much in money and years as the Jays wanted in prospects? Again, he's just not worth a Papelbon-fortune. But he's worth opening the coffers for.
Pedro Feliciano - Another guy who might fly a bit under the radar, but this time one with the numbers to inspire confidence enough to take a look at him even if he doesn't. I was a big fan of Feliciano at the deadline, I still am now.
Will Ohman - Another guy with a small ERA and mid-sized peripherals. He'll probably cost more than he's worth, ultimately, but if nobody else bites, he's got a decent enough track record as a cheap pick-up.
Dennys Reyes - Reyes' greatest skill of late seems to be, uh, karma. Or universal self-correction. Or something. After years of underperforming his FIPs, now he's spent the last five years dramatically overperforming his FIP. I dunno, I don't really want to rely on that, do you guys?
Arthur Rhodes - See: Saito, Takashi
J.C. Romero - Romero is basically Reyes, except he didn't pay as many dues. He actually walked more batters than he struck out last year. Pass.
35 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
Not an Ohman fan.
Since I live in the DC area and watched the Sox pound him while he was an Oriole, I have never been impressed. I think Feliciano is the best in this group.
by The Herndon Kid on Oct 10, 2010 9:56 AM EDT reply actions
Any chance we could get the 2010 NL edition of Javier Lopez back?
Or the 2007 and 2008 Javier Lopez, as opposed to the no-good version that we had in 2009?
Fenway: "An alternate and better universe, disguised as a ballpark." --Thomas Boswell
Downs should be the #1 target.
solid history in the AL east.
The certified ambassador of all things good and great, here at OTM.
DO NOT OVERPAY FOR BELTRE !!!
TRADE ELLSBURY THIS WINTER !!!
One of the many, proud OTM'ers that cannot stand Josh Beckett.
Agreed
If we cut Papelbon we could probably afford Downs and someone else. With Bard as our closer and the Downs +1 ticket as the bridge, the bullpen will be greatly improved.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
This
Get rid of Craps, sign Downs and Frasor/Putz. Bard, Putz, Downs, Doubront, Atchinson. Nobody in there is terrible.
"Every night I go to bed thinking about when I’m going to play again. I dream about playing at Fenway."-Ryan Westmoreland
Twitter: @BoldandBrash
by BoldandBrash on Oct 10, 2010 5:31 PM EDT up reply actions
Pappelbon will be the closer to start 2011
I don’t see the Sox non-tendering Papplebon and they won’t get much in trade. Just accept the fact that Papplebon will go into 2011 as the closer. If he gags over the first couple of months, things could change. While he as had some very memorable implosions, he was still a very decent closer and he can certainly recover and adjust.
If the Sox project to let Papplebon walk after 2011, a very real and likely scenario, they will still need some talent in the pen. If they sign Downs or another good arm or two, and Bard continues his dominnance, they will be well-positioned for life after Papplebon.
If they sign Downs and a good arm or two
They’re likely dropping ~25 million on a bullpen, which can take up some precious capital that could be used on other FA.
Papelbon just isn’t worth $10+ million. It’s hard to be worth $10 million as a dependably good closer, much less an inconsistent one.
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Oct 11, 2010 11:59 AM EDT up reply actions
Papplebon a non-tender?
Do you really think that will happen? Stranger things have happened, but not very often.
Here we go with the “budget” again. I’m pretty sure the Sox have budgeted Papplebon’s arb money for 2011. I’m also sure they make long-term budget projections 2-3 years down the road. If they have to spend $25 million on the pen in 2011, that number can drop by Papplebon’s 2011 salary in 2012. If Bard is making $400K as the closer in 2012, that leaves plenty of room. They will also have the luxury of time to evaluate Dubront and Bowden for bullpen duty.
If they plan to tender him, then they have budgeted the money
But that doesn’t mean the money doesn’t come from somewhere else it could be spent. And with Drew and Cameron leaving next year and no good FA OF on the horizon, this seems as good a year as any to have room in that budget.
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Oct 11, 2010 12:16 PM EDT up reply actions
I think he means that we could spend that 10+ or whatever he makes toward
getting two FA relievers. It would be more than 10+, but possibly better overall value. They’re not just going to non-tender him and not replace him.
"Every night I go to bed thinking about when I’m going to play again. I dream about playing at Fenway."-Ryan Westmoreland
Twitter: @BoldandBrash
by BoldandBrash on Oct 11, 2010 4:21 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm still thinking they keep Paps who shares closing/setup duties with Bard.
Do you think Paps is as good as gone?
I'd really, really love to see Downs there
my only concern is if he’s pitched himself into a 3 or more year contract at his age. But if a reasonable deal can be made, he’s my #1
Just getting rid of Oki-freakin-jima
would be an upgrade in itself for the Sox.
Have you seen Dustin Richardson pitch?
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Oct 11, 2010 10:52 AM EDT up reply actions
no, but I've seen him hurl baseballs in the general vicinity of the strikezone.
Only the very general vicinity though.
Aren't there more Bards around?
I thought there were a couple more Bard brothers out there. Probably can’t help in 2011, but maybe they can have a Bard-to-Bard-to-Bard handoff in the bullpen in a few years. :-)
Fenway: "An alternate and better universe, disguised as a ballpark." --Thomas Boswell
The lefties look better than the righties you trotted out there the other day
This reminds me how hard it is to assemble the pen. And, dumping Oki he will probably go on and have a few good+ years in the NL…and then the fans will piss and moan “why did we get rid of Oki?” If I were Oki’s agent I would advise him to go to the NL where his delivery would fool hitters for a couple of years
Ben, have you thought about any trade options for lefites or righties?
"Man that ball got outta here in a hurry, you know anything that travels that far oughta have a damn stewardess on it, don't you think?" - Crash Davis
Trading prospects for relievers?
Maybe a Bowden or a AA, but I definitely wouldn’t want to hand over a good prospect to get a reliever who’ll implode halfway through the year.
Fenway: "An alternate and better universe, disguised as a ballpark." --Thomas Boswell
I hear you - at this point all options should be explored until the best options are discovered
Shopping does not always mean buying exploring the options does not always mean going with that plan – just things to consider. All I know is I do not want to see the pen in ’11 look like this years performance.
"Man that ball got outta here in a hurry, you know anything that travels that far oughta have a damn stewardess on it, don't you think?" - Crash Davis
Sox need a top bullpen guy
Theo has said that one of the most important jobs is rebuilding the bullpen, so I expect we will see the Sox grab one of the non-closers from the lists. It appears the Rays and Jays bullpens are essentially up for grabs, so the Sox baseball brass has plenty of first hand data on how these guys do against the AL and AL East.
It's less about top-quality than getting a few really dependable good guys.
Sure, Downs is a priority, but if it comes down to getting him or picking up 3 dependably good guys, then I’d pass on Downs.
Probably can have our cake and eat it too.
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Oct 11, 2010 12:01 PM EDT up reply actions
Sox are good at 8-9th inning now
with Bard and Papplebon in 2011. What they need is a solid 7th/8th inning guy that can get strikeouts. I generally prefer to have one 10 rather than two 5’s, so I would prefer they get a Downs, or even Fuentes if he doesn’t land closer money and then bring in some lesser lights to compete for the job(s) in the pen. One solid guy will go a long way.
In what world are they "good" with Papelbon?
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Oct 12, 2010 11:21 AM EDT up reply actions
I think most teams would be happy with Paps at closer BUT...
Not when it’s costing $10 mil next season. Even at his best, I have a hard time paying him that much. Closers are overpaid, and at the slightest sign of trouble (and you could easily argue that Papelbon had those signs going into 2010, let alone after this season), you gotta look somewhere else.
Papelbon = good? Maybe, but only if taken completely out of context. When you look at his cost vs. reward? Even “good” is a stretch…
Not many teams would be happy with 2010 Papelbon at closer
And given that there was some warning given his questionable 2009 and the sudden jump in walks carrying over, I’d say there’s little reason to expect Paps will ever be dominant closer Paps again. At least not in this division.
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Oct 12, 2010 3:12 PM EDT up reply actions
He's better than a lot of closers out there.
Know that I’m not a Papelbon apologist. I’d non-tender him tomorrow if it was up to me… But I think that as bad as he has been, there are a lot of teams that would take him. I mean, guys like David Aardsma are closing. Chad Qualls, Joel Hanrahan, Octavio Dotel – these guys had jobs as closers! So even though Papelbon has definitely declined, I still think he would be qualified to close on a lot of teams out there.
However, given his large price tag, I don’t know how we could trade him away. All of those AAAA teams who have no better options are not ever going to pay him that much.
yeah I'd like to keep him as a reliever just fine
I just can’t see how his arbitration salary would be justified by his performance.
2009 -2010 were disappointing for Papelbon
I can’t help but wonder if there is an adjustment that he could make and he would improve in 2011. 10 million is way too much based on his performance these past two years – and, spending the $$ elsewhere does make sense. I do imagine we keep him one more year and keep our fingers crossed. But, look on the bright side if you like stupid comments, eternal pauses between pitches, high drama and roller coaster rides then Paps is worth every penny.
"Man that ball got outta here in a hurry, you know anything that travels that far oughta have a damn stewardess on it, don't you think?" - Crash Davis
the thing is
going into 2010, my thought was “OK he wasn’t his best in 2009, but he’s a good pitcher, I’m sure he’ll be able to make adjustments in 2010.” Then 2010 was worse. It really is just an issue of the money he’ll make. The typical arbitration progression (40/60/80) would have him making $12 million this year- I’d guess $10 million is the barest minimum. I just can’t see a way where he’s a safe bet to be worth that- or even a reasonably risky bet. Would like if we could keep him around, but I’d rather see him non-tendered than to have the team tie up that much of their money in him. I think he probably will be there next year, I just wish the money was going elsewhere.
Even if he is dominant again
would he still be worth $10M-$12M?? For me, the answer is no. The only closer who should be paid that much is Mariano Rivera, and only because he is the best in the game (as much as I hate to say it). Relief pitching is just so volatile, and even the so-called elite closers can fall apart (see: Broxton, K-Rod, or for an injury example, Joe Nathan).
And… Even if you split the difference at $11M, that would make him the fourth or fifth highest paid reliever in baseball, and he is not the fourth best closer.
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
In Association With
Big League Stew - MLB - Yahoo! Sports
- Livan Hernandez welcomes ballboy to the bigs with shower of sunflower seeds (VIDEO)
- Man beaten by four others in Dodger Stadium parking lot
- Lance Berkman’s knee injury creates a lot of questions for Cards but also his career
- Next generation: Scott Van Slyke, son of Andy Van Slyke, hits first career homer
- The Juice: Stephen Strasburg homers to cool off Orioles, Aroldis Chapman closes out Yanks
