What can Bill Hall bring to the Red Sox?
One of the more controversial deals in the last week was the trade of Casey Kotchman for Bill Hall, a yet unspecified amount of cash, and a minor leaguer (or several as it is reported that the Sox will be receiving a catcher from the low minors as ONE of their minor leaguers from the Mariner's).
Now the obvious thing to do is look at this immediately and think "what can a good defensive fielder who hasn't been able to hit a thing in the last year, who is making $8.4 million be to the Red Sox?" And that would be a very valid point. The first thing to keep in mind with that would be that his contract is paid (to the mariners who traded for him from the brewers) up to $7.15 million, so a big part of what this trade is worth is just how much of the $8.4 million the Sox will be covering. Reports (with minimal investigation) have ranged from $1.25 mill to 4 or 5 million. As he is on the roster either way though, let's examine what exactly he can provide for the team (after the jump)
First of all, the first thing he provides is a salary discount from Kotchman, who was due a raise from his almost $2.9 million salary in 2009- probably somewhere around $4.25 million. The cost of Bill Hall for the CBT (which seem most relevant to the Sox, though not the Mariners) is currently $6 million minus whatever cash comes in from Seattle as part of the trade. If the minimum amount that I have heard rumored is true($4 million), this means that the Sox will be on the hook for paying $4.4 million, but for the sake of luxury tax, will only count as $2 million. Compared to Kotchman's $4-4.25 million, this saves the Sox about $2 million+ in CBT allowances.
Secondly, this is a player who can play defensively all over the field. While UZR has him rated as very slightly negative in 3B and LF, he has proven positive everywhere else- including great fielding at shortstop and center field, two of the most important defensive positions in the game.
Now defensively, in combination with Lowrie and Scutaro, Hall makes it so that the roster can handle pretty much anyone dropping off and still remaining defensively strong- the biggest dropoff would be if Youk had to sit, and Martinez had to move to first (average) and Varitek had to move to catcher (reportedly below average, though there are very few reliable metrics). Apart from that, the team would still remain one of the most solid teams in the MLB, defensively- with either Hall or Scutaro able to manage most any position on the field and Lowrie able to man any infield position except first. Essentially, this is probably the team in the majors which can afford to lose a major defensive player in any position and still be the best or one of the best defensive clubs in the MLB.
Where does Hall fall flat? Lately, that has been offense. Although Hall has historically been a middle fielder with decent power (in his peak season, he got 35 home runs!), his average has decreased horribly lately, and his OBP along with it (he's always struck out a lot, but lately has posted a horrifying 36% K rate with a tiny BB rate, greatly decreasing his value.
He has been fairly adamant over his career that he should be a starter- he has been visibly upset when brought in as a replacement for teams, and as such, is probably not a great long term utility guy, however, he has proven he can do the job effectively. Essentially, in the case which someone gets injured (as we saw quite often last year), he provides a player in pretty much any position in the field, who can field the position with some pop in his bat effectively for a short time. In the long term, I see him being replaced with Lowrie, who is younger, cheaper, and more effectively defensively in the infield, however, for so litttle money, Hall provides a goodvalue.
In addition to all of this information, Hall is willing and ready to prove himself. After by far his worst career offensive year, Hall's value is reduced to that of a AAAA player, and he is raring to get the ABs to prove himself for a starting job with another club. If the Sox can find a club a few months in looking for a quality fielder, who would like good offense but don't require it (or can't afford it guaranteed), Hall is an excellent choice. In addition, his lifetime .810 against lefties, while not everything, was worth a look.
Essentially, he provides some salary relief from Kotchman, being a more effective defensive player, while being a useful backup player for the Sox
Where he lacks currently is his bat, but as he is not expected to be an everyday player for the sox, this is not expected of or required. Hall should provide some excellent early-season value for someone in trade or a replacement for someone in need.
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All true
But I’d rather have Lowrie as our util man with Kotchman as our BU @ 1st. Kotchman didnt hit 4 Bos last yr, but in the past he’s been a much better hitter and real good fielder. I know, I know, they save a couple of mil
Lowrie will not develop as a utility guy-
It would be better for him to play in AAA even. At least he would be playing full time baseball.
Good move
I think Hall has more value to the Sox than Kotchman. If I had to pick one to be a starter, I’d of course pick Kotchman, but that is not what the Sox need. Also I agree with Buzzy and Bloggy that Lowrie should get regular playing time at AAA. I don’t think he’s helped much by sitting on the bench, and I suppose with the Beltre deal only being one year there is an option of him starting at 3b next year.
Buzzy & Bloggy
Kinda sounds like a buddy-cop movie. Like Tango & Cash.
Actually…no it doesn’t. It sounds more like a lame-ass tag team in the early-to-mid 90s.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
I have a five-tool player in my pants.
I could not agree with this more
I think really the ideal thing to do with Lowrie at this point is to get him constant at bats at AAA, and once he’s proven he’s healthy, hitting, and playing as well as he should, have him take over at shortstop with Scutaro becoming our superutility guy- which may not be till 2011 if Scutaro is performing as well as he did last year.
Lowrie just has too much potential to be used as a backup because there’s a risk that he will end up remaining as a backup.
I'd be ok with that on two conditions
1) He has to be healthy. If he’s not healthy, there’s no point in having him on the major league roster.
2) He has to get 300 plate appearances. He really needs regular at bats to continue to develop.
On #1, we’re not going to know if he’s really healthy until he can show us he can play every day. Ok, so what position would he play to be able to get in the game every day? We have Pedroia, who I suspect would play a doubleheader every day if he could, at second. He’s going to play 150+ games, so there’s no opportunity for Lowrie there. We have Scutaro at short, and you don’t sign a type A free agent in order to sit him, so you can bet he’ll play 140+ games — no opportunity for Lowrie there. And we just signed Beltre to play third, and the only reason he didn’t play 140+ games with reasonable offensive production and outstanding defense last year was because he was hurt. If he’s healthy, he’s going to play 140+ games, possibly 150+ — the exact number will depend on how many times the Sox shift Youk to third so Martinez can play first on days he’s not catching, but regardless, there’s no opportunity for Lowrie there. So we’re not going to have a position available for Lowrie to play every day to show us he’s healthy unless he’s in the minor leagues.
That also takes care of my second condition — if he’s not playing regularly, he’s not going to get 300 major league plate appearances. I’d be shocked if he got 200. But if he’s healthy and plays most of the year in AAA, he can get 500 appearances, join the Sox in September, and make us all feel better about having him step in at third when Beltre declines his option for 2011.
Speaking as a brewers fan
This guy is the most frustrating player in the world to watch. His offense is, well, horrible. It’s an automatic that if he gets to a 1-2 count (which seems to happen 3 out of every four at bats) that the pitcher will give him a slider in the dirt, which he invariably swings at. I mean, like every time.
This dude isn’t an everyday major leaguer in the NL, I really can’t see him being much while trying to hit the superior pitching in the AL east. Maybe if you guys use him as a utility dude, that’d be alright, but it seems like the talk here is about having him as a starter… bad, bad, bad.
Oh, and lest you think his defense will make up for it, third base was where he spent the majority of the time… the only place where his UZR is horrible.
God no to the starting
Our infield and outfield is set at this point. He’ll be a utility guy, but it’s more a question if he’s our middle infielder or more a guy to man the corners.
DFA Beckett
by South Coast Ghost on Jan 7, 2010 1:18 PM EST up reply actions
STARTER!?
where’d you get that from. Even if one of our starters got hurt, they’d call up Lowrie from AAA and keep Hall on the bench. Hall will only spot start if somebody has a day off. anything long term and Lowrie would play
When I saw the comment on 300+ ABs
It seemed like they were talking about having him be a legitimate part of a red sox offense, which he definitely isn’t.
Talking about Lowrie
debate about AAA or MLB util this yr
Hall's offense
must be really, really bad. The caption says “Seattle Mariners’ Bill Hall throws his bat after striking out against the Seattle Mariners.” That is hard to do!
Brewer fan
I’m a brewers fan, first and foremost, but Boston is my second favorite team. Now that you have both Hall and Cameron, prepare for lots of strikeouts. Cameron is a great guy and great defender, but strikes out way too much. Hall is a worse defender, lets things get into his head, and fails way more than he delivers. good luck with that.
Ugh. Enough with the Cameron striking out stuff.
Ks are meaningless if you can OBP & SLG. I’ll take a K over a double play any day.
I was drunk. Sue me.
by Dikembe Meiztombo on Jan 7, 2010 4:13 PM EST up reply actions
Brewers fan
Sure he may or may not get a spot start here or there, but Hall is a utility player and nothing more.
Is anyone else think that a low-level catching prospect would be worthless to us?
I mean we have Exposito, Fedex, Lavarneway……
"Hating the New York Yankees is as American as apple pie, unwed mothers and cheating on your income tax." -- Mike Royko
it's probably more about who they're willing to let go of that we think has potential than someone we need
If they all work out, a few of em can get traded
sometimes a low-level prospects' value
isn’t about whether he has a place in THIS organization, but whether he might have future value in ANY organization.
If a low-level prospect looks like they have talent, then that’s potentially a trade chip, regardless of whether they fit in your organization.

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