Trading Clay Buchholz: Progressive or Nonsensical Ideology?
Clay Buchholz has always been an intriguing subject in relation to trade rumors involving the Boston Red Sox -- and 2009's off season has been no different. The young right-hander has been linked in trade discussions involving everyone from Roy Halladay to Hanley Ramirez during his time in Boston; the most recent discussions surrounding the San Diego Padres' Adrian Gonzalez.
Buchholz has certainly shown that he is more than capable of dominating on the major league level, most notably throwing a no-hitter against the Baltimore Orioles in September of 2007. However, Buchholz has also shown flashes of insecurity on the mound, specifically regarding the incorporation of his fastball into his repertoire, leading to some well-documented struggles during his still short-lived MLB career.
Every member of 'Red Sox Nation' holds a different opinion on whether Buchholz is best served on the trading block or permanently included as a part of the rotation, and it's a safe assumption that those within Boston's organization are like-minded in relation to this particular subject. If that weren't the case, then we'd have either seen Buchholz moved by now, or trade rumors involving the young pitcher would have ceased. However, as it stands, Buchholz continues to attract potential suitors -- and the Red Sox continue to listen.
Is it time that the Red Sox stop shopping Buchholz and finally allow him to settle into his role in Boston; or will his name continue to litter the rumor mill?
While obtaining a slugger such as Adrian Gonzalez or Miguel Cabrera via trade may seem like the obvious way to quiet rumblings of a potential offensive downfall for Boston in 2010, trading away a prospect of this caliber, whether now or in the future, should induce hesitation for a plethora of reasons.
First, and perhaps most prominent, is Buchholz's potential. His now-infamous no-hitter of 2007 aside, the denouement to his 2009 season in itself should help galvanize hope amongst the Red Sox faithful. Looking past the final two October starts against the Indians and Angels, Buchholz had a tremendously effective month of September. In six starts the young right-hander amassed a 4-1 record with an ERA of 2.87 in 37 2/3 innings pitched. Buchholz shined down the regular season's stretch-run, averaging nearly seven innings per outing. In fact, take away his final September start against Toronto, in which he surrendered seven earned runs (including five home runs) over just five innings, and Buchholz turned in a 4-0 record with a miniscule 1.39 ERA during the month. Compared to the adversity that Buchholz created for himself in previous seasons, 2009 was a giant step forward in Clay's quest for consistency.
Another reason for hesitancy is the importance placed on his position. The most influencial individual on the field in any given game is the starting pitcher, and not surprisingly, that same spot is one of the most difficult to fill with an impact player. Top of the rotation starters that are developed within their team's system are rare in the world of professional baseball, and Buchholz has the potential to be one of said rarities; a fact not lost on general manager Theo Epstein. Despite the fact that he has shown on several occasions that he isn't adverse to struggling at the major league level, the position that he plays in addition to the potential displayed in his few years in the MLB keeps him among one of the most appealing names in Red Sox trade discussions, and with good reason.
The Red Sox, Epstein in particular, have always expressed their devotion towards the continuation of the development of Buchholz -- even during his shakiest of stretches (on and off the field). It is in this patience that makes it difficult to foresee Boston eventually parting ways with the young pitcher -- and yet another reason why letting Clay go now may be a mistake. As mentioned earlier, it's of near-unanimous opinion that Buchholz has the potential to be a top-tier pitcher at the professional level, so it hardly makes sense to have displayed such a level of equanimity in relation to trading Buchholz to this point only to move him now.
On the other hand, when assessing the potential upside to the opposite end of the spectrum (that being trading Buchholz), finding positives is not a toilsome task by any means.
Using the same formula of potential plus appeal, Buchholz can assuredly create a very intriguing centerpiece to any package of players that could conceivably land the big-name addition that may be needed to transform the Red Sox from a contender to a favorite. In a similar sense that a young starting pitcher's value undoubtedly decreases the allure of being traded at the hands of his particular organization, the same fact subsequently increases the appeal for other teams who may be looking to complete a deal. While Jacoby Ellsbury was reportedly the one player demanded in any potential deal between the Detroit Tigers and the Red Sox regarding Curtis Granderson, Clay Buchholz remains the most highly sought-after name that has been dangled by the members Boston's front-office. It's no coincidence that he has been linked to discussions surrounding high-caliber stars such as Adrian Gonzalez, Hanley Ramirez, and Roy Halladay (to name a few). His value is undeniable -- however you choose to look at it.
When considering a trade this season, the current rotation featured by the Red Sox should afford them the luxury of moving a player like Buchholz to fill voids left in other areas -- this particular instance calling for an offensive upgrade according to popular opinion. With a surplus of viable options in the rotation entering 2010, Buchholz's departure could be perceived as a less-significant subtraction than it may have been in previous years. Josh Beckett, John Lackey, and Jon Lester combine to form one of the most imposing 1-2-3 punches in all of baseball. While a team can never have too much pitching depth, the stability of the Red Sox's rotation as it stands now does nothing but increase the likelihood that he be continue to be shopped; even moreso if Beckett is re-signed during the course of the regular season.
Boston failed to successfully consummate a deal to acquire Adrian Gonzalez from the Padres this off season, but with San Diego ostensibly in position to struggle yet again in 2010, it's more than probable that Gonzalez will again find himself amidst trade rumors surrounding next year's trade deadline. While David Ortiz was one of the best hitters statistically during the second half of last season, his positive production is hardly the certainty that it once was. Another slow start from Ortiz may force management to re-address the offensive issue mid-season. If someone like Adrian Gonzalez is again made available at the deadline, his consistent production and friendly contractual obligations may be too enticing to pass up for the Red Sox, even at the cost of Buchholz.
However, thanks in large part to the Red Sox's pitching staff, namely the starting rotation, it would require a truly dismal output from this offense to have a profound impact on Boston's considerations as a contender. That being said, there may be too much emphasis being placed on the subtraction of Jason Bay's production and not enough on the potential upside to the newly-formed lineup. Despite Bay's departure, the Red Sox may actually end up having a more successful offensive campaign in 2010 -- all things considered. New additions Victor Martinez, Marco Scutaro, and Adrian Beltre all represent offensive upgrades at their respective positions in relation to last year's club (Martinez based on his first full season with Boston). That fact, coupled with the improvements made to the pitching rotation and the defensive alignment, could make this year's Sox a vastly-improved team from an overall outlook.
With Buchholz staying put throughout this entire off season amidst much speculation that the Red Sox were in dire need of a power-hitter to compliment their lineup, it seems less-likely that Theo Epstein is willing to move his prized developmental product (at least this season).
So, while it appears that Buchholz is safely entrenched in Boston for the time being; just how long before his name again resurfaces in the rumors section? And whatever they decide to do -- will it end up being the right move?
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Also worth mentioning...
…that aside from Casey, Boston doesn’t really boast any truly impactful starting pitching (near MLB-ready) in their system as the moment, not on the level that Buchholz was a few years ago anyway.
At least not in my opinion.
(suffice it to say I voted “No.”)
Bowden?
I never hear Bowden’s name even mentioned as a good prospect anymore. Has he slipped that much? His Pawtucket numbers (SO/BB, ERA) were pretty good last season.
He's really young to just be given up on.
But he was never at Buchholz’ level to begin with, and now he has to prove himself.
USG
right
I’m in no way suggesting that Bowden should be given up on, I just don’t think he has the same caliber of upside that someone like Buchholz had (obviously), which was my point; the Red Sox don’t have the high level pitching prospects that project as front of the rotation guys in their system right now (aside from Kelly).
actually
When I posted that initial comment, his name was the reason I added the “not on the level that Buchholz was” part.
I just don’t know what to think about Bowden yet….still.
They won't trade Buch before the season.
But come July, if we need an offense injection, and the rotation is otherwise doing well, I wouldn’t be shocked to see him go.
Though hopefully he’ll step up and pitch good enough that it’s be crazy to trade him.
Manny ain't the only bad man.
agreed
The signing of Beltre essentially laid to rest any ideas of Buchholz starting 2010 anywhere but Boston, even prior to that the chances were slim.
Personally, I think Buchholz is going to have a really solid season (especially as a #5 starter).
I used to think trading him for a bat was a good idea, but I seem to be changing my mind more and more with each passing day. As of now I’m pretty much 100% against trading him, regardless of who it’s for.
Actually, I would be surprised to see him moved this year
With the Beltre signing, the Sox are now set at the corners. That means they’re unlikely to try to acquire a Gonzalez or Cabrera during the season (unless there’s an unforeseen injury to a key player).
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Jan 7, 2010 10:08 AM EST up reply actions
I could Ellsbury being trade for a corner-outfield bat
"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw
though at this point, only if something terrible happens to Beltre/Youk
because we SHOULD have very solid corners. I wouldn’t be shocked to see someone traded after this year though.
You want Theo to trade a top pitching prospect?
Good luck with that. You might as well ask Bill Belichick to discuss injuries.
I don’t know what it would take to pry a Kelly or Buchholz loose from Epstein’s iron death grip. He’d probably demand AGon plus prospects before he’d greenlight a trade like that.
If they sign Chapman
That would make Bucholz more avail. If not I think he stays unless our offense really sux and our pitching is keeping us in the running at the trade deadline
Not sure
I actually made that exact point in a previous article regarding Chapman’s signing making Buchholz more expendable, but I’m starting to have a change of heart.
For one, I don’t think the Red Sox end up signing Chapman the more I read about it. Also, I think that if Buchholz were going to be moved then they would have used him to make a more concerted effort to land Gonzalez prior to Beltre’s signing (especially when it seemed bleak that the deal would get done).
At this point, it just seems as though Buchholz is only going somewhere if he truly falls off this year or if Boston is “wowed” by an offer…niether of which seem likely to me. Idk…
I don't see a need to trade Clay now that we have Beltre
since we have the starting corner infielders set. Unless there’s an unfortunate season ending injury to one of the two, it’d be kind of a waste to get A-Gon/Miguel with somebody of that worth riding the pine.
Aside from injuries, Clay Buchholz will be pitching for the Red Sox in October.
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Now Introducing the new 2009 Big 12 Baseball Tournament Champions: UT, KSU*, BU*, and MU*!
Funny
I just posted the same thing. Great minds think alike :-)
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Jan 7, 2010 10:10 AM EST up reply actions
Touche!
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Now Introducing the new 2009 Big 12 Baseball Tournament Champions: UT, KSU*, BU*, and MU*!
+1
You both saved me the trouble.
I might add that I believe that the marginal value of replacing Beltre or Youk with A-Gon (netting changes to both offense and defense) is probably significantly less than the marginal value of Buchholz over Wakefield in the starting rotation. So for this coming year the value proposition goes heavily in favor of not trading Buchholz.
Yes, we lose Beltre eventually so the longer term value calculation is different – but we’d be keeping Buchholz as a further hedge against the potential loss of Beckett in the rotation. So again, even beyond this year it makes more sense right now to NOT move Buchholz (at least for A-Gon).
Agreed
We have Lester through 2014. We have Lackey through 2014. Wake is done after 2011. We control Clay for a few more years. And we have Dice-K through 2012.
Let’s assume we re-sign Beckett. That gives us a rotation of Lester, Beckett, Lackey, Clay, and Dice-K through the 2012 season. I’m assuming we lose Dice-K at that point — Boras is going to demand he be paid like an elite pitcher and someone will be dumb enough to give it to him — but Casey Kelly should be ready by 2013, probably sooner. That means we’re set up to have a dominant rotation for several years.
Now, it’s possible we lose Beckett, but we’d still have an excellent rotation — Wake would be our fifth starter in 2011, then retire. And we could trade Kelly for someone like Gonzalez. But we’d still have a top three of Lester, Lackey, and Buchholz that ought to be the envy of most teams.
Ultimately, you have to conclude that Theo has done a masterful job setting up the Sox rotation for the next several years. And because he’s done such a great job of it, he can afford to trade Buchholz if the right offer comes along, especially if he re-signs Beckett — but it has to be a great deal.
I agree mostly
But I keep thinking hes our 4 or 5th starter for someone like Gonzalez.
He's our fourth starter THIS YEAR
On most teams, he’d be the second or third starter right now. And while he’d probably still be our third pitcher in a couple of years, at that point he’d be the ace on at least half the rotations in the majors. So you can’t think of him as merely a bottom-of-the-rotation starter — he’s a hell of a lot more than that.
I know that y I mostly agree
But I’d love to see Gonzalez on this team. If he can hit 40 in SD what would he do in Fenway
Not worth trading the house for
San Diego will either accept less for him at the deadline next year, either before the season or at the deadline, or we can go after him in free agency and he’ll only cost us a draft pick.
I doubt we resign Beckett.
especially if Buch plays well this year.
"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw
Agreed to some degree
Beltre’s signing certainly diminished any possibility that Buchholz be moved prior to the beginning of the season, but it’ll be interesting to see how the Red Sox approach the trade deadline if Ortiz fails to produce or someone like Youkilis/Martinez/Beltre gets seriously hurt.
But yes, I’ll say it again, after the way this off season played out (especially early on), I don’t see Buchholz being moved any time soon — if at all.
I agree
Theo should not be looking to trade Clay based on the “what if’s”
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I don't think Buchholz is going anywhere
At least not this year, something might always come up in the future. But what about Wake? Is he the long reliever now? Are he and Dice-K going to split games? (Joking on the last one… Sort of…)
long relief and spot starter - someone is bound to get injured at some point
And he should do very well in that role. Less wear and tear on his body. May be able to maximize quality innings out of him rather than quantity.
Wake is bound to get injured at some point
By keeping him in the role Justin Masterson occupied at the start of last season, though, he may be able to last. It seems almost criminal, though, to have him go out like that.
Then again, unless Dice-K has changed his conditioning, Wake will still get 20 starts anyway.
All reports I have heard
indicate that Dice K has indeed ‘changed his conditioning’ , is working very hard and is very highly motivated to show that last year was the aberation.
Hopefully that isn’t just wishful buzz.
I don't believe it until I see the results
All the reports we heard when we first got him were that he was an ace. But even at his best, he’s been nothing more than a third starter — Beckett and Lester have both been far better throughout his tenure.
Yah - buzz is just buzz
Still, his 18 win season was pretty damn good. And he’s had some outings that show that he could live up to the buzz.
There was A LOT of bullpen help in that 18 win season.
And a lot of PeptoBismol.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
I have a five-tool player in my pants.
And a lot of luck, too
A .267 BABIP is the only reason he looked so impressive. He was significantly better in his first year, when his numbers looked mediocre — he walked batters less often, struck them out more, and averaged 6.4 innings per start (compared to 5.8 in the 18 win season).
not so simple
Yes, his walks went way up in 08 v 07 (from 3.5 per 9 innings to 5.0 per 9 innings).
But his hits per 9 dropped correspondingly down (8.4 to 6.9) so that his WHIP was identical.
A walk isn’t quite as good as a hit, so missing bats helped him more than missing the plate hurt him.
Maybe the low BABIP probably helped remove some potential hits?
His OBP against was virtually identical (due to the BBs), but the slugging numbers really, really dropped (.405 to .324). I would think a low BABIP would be removing more singles than extra base hits. And in fact he gave up a lot fewer doubles (42→29) and HRs (25→12) – that certainly helped.
So that suggests that the low BABIP was probably less a factor than just plain being harder to square up. He put people on base with walks, but left a lot on because he was hard to hit. Sort of a classic nibbler.
I.E. there’s two kinds of pitchers that walk a lot of batters: Wild Things (who can’t help it) and Nibblers (who refuse to give in to the hitter).
Do you suppose his lower BABIP had something to do with his lower H/9?
Look, BABIP is a function of luck. You should expect a BABIP of about .300. Dice-K’s was .306 in 2007 — about normal — and .267 in 2008, indicating he was very lucky. So it had everything to do with the change in H/9 — that alone explains the difference between 8.4 and 6.9 H/9.
As for the rest:
1) The 39 point difference in BABIP between 2007 and 2008 explains a hefty chunk of the slugging difference, including doubles — batters don’t have a whole lot of control over where they put the ball when they put it in play, so if they’re having worse luck in getting the ball to drop in for a hit, they’re almost certainly also having worse luck getting the ball to drop in the gap so they can take two.
2) Home runs aren’t dealt with in BABIP because they’re not in play, so they have nothing to do with the difference in BABIP. But all the statistics show that pitchers have very little control over how what proportion of fly balls they allow will turn into home runs. So if the proportion of flies is about the same, a change in the proportion of home runs per fly ball is, like BABIP, a function of luck. There was virtually no difference in how batters hit the ball (flies, grounders, liners, etc.) of Dice-K between the two years.
3) That’s why we use statistics like FIP to determine how effective a pitcher really is. But the problem with FIP is that it assumes pitchers do have substantial control over the percentage of fly balls they allow that become home runs; again, there is absolutely no reliable evidence that that is the case. A better measure is xFIP, which is a normalized measure of FIP. So what did Dice-K’s xFIP look like? In 2007, it was 4.31 — acceptable but not great, just like Dice-K’s outcomes. In 2008, it was 4.70 — barely passable, but far worse than his outcomes. And sure enough, with a nearly identical K/9 and better BB/9 the next year but far more normal HR/FB and a ridiculously high BABIP of .385, Dice-K’s outcomes were far worse even though he pitched only marginally worse overall when he wasn’t disabled by the side effects of a terrible case of sloth.
So no, it’s not “simple.” But anyone who tells you his going 18-3 with a 2.90 ERA in 2008 wasn’t hugely a function of luck is absolutely kidding themselves.
Of course, one nice thing to look at is that a lower BABIP comes with defense.
Daisuke might be the most helped by the defensive boost of all.
USG
True
But I think it likely his BABIP ends up around .300 this year — certainly it will be closer to .300 than last year, merely from regression to the mean. And that combined with superior conditioning habits — assuming Dice-K has done his job this offseason — will get him back to performing like a league average pitcher.
If he’s ridiculously lucky like he was in 2008, he’ll appear to be a solid middle-of-the-rotation guy. But if he’s who he seems to be and merely isn’t horribly unlucky like he was last year, he’ll be about league average or maybe a little better, and that would make him the best fifth starter in the American League.
I didn't mean to suggest he wasn't hugely lucky in 2008
He clearly was, with a BABIP difference like that.
But I did note that was a pretty significant drop in extra base hits.
And as you said – and I said – the BABIP number doesn’t completely explain that.
A significant portion of doubles in Fenway are not balls in the gap, but rather wall balls. Thus doubles are reflective also of power and not just luck of finding the gaps.
BABIP can also drop if fewer ground balls are hit hard enough to get through the gaps.
Thus, aside from yes, beinging ‘luckier’, it seems to me that he was also legitimately harder to hit in 2008 than in 2007.
Overall, I agree with your assessment of what we should probably expect from him this year. But I do think that there have been signs here and there of him having potential to be much better.
Never say never
If there was some sort of fantastic package that would bring us Pujols, Hanley, Adrian Gonzalez, and the cash to cover all their salaries and all Theo would have to give up would be Buchholz, you pull the trigger on that deal without even thinking about it.
But the kind of proposed deals we’ve been hearing, where we give up a potential ace (Buchholz) plus two or three top prospects (e.g., Kelly, Westmoreland) for someone like Roy Halladay? Sure, we’d be a little better this year, but not much. And we would be a lot worse off down the road. To make a trade like that, I have to be absolutely convinced it’s the one move that guarantees we win the World Series this year, and none of the proposed trades we’ve heard about are anything close to that.
Exactly why I voted "Undecided"
Of course, those deals never happen
DFA Beckett
by South Coast Ghost on Jan 7, 2010 1:52 PM EST up reply actions
Buchholz
We can’t trade him – I just figured out how to spell his name correctly —
I used to be on the trade Buchholz bandwagon, but I’m off it for a few reasons
- Its harder to find, keep and pay for top notch pitching than it is to find a positional player…just ask about 20+ ML teams who have a hard time trotting out a decent rotation year in and year out.
- Buchholz showed me something last year – Heart and Ability….
- Beckett. I’d keep Buchholz around until I really know what was going to happen to Josh.
I’d trade Casey Kelly before trading Clay
I'll agree with you there when he turns in a solid season at AA.
Right now his success if confined to High A with an older age class…..impressive, but not to the caliber Buchholz has been….
"Hating the New York Yankees is as American as apple pie, unwed mothers and cheating on your income tax." -- Mike Royko
by sox-inda-south on Jan 7, 2010 4:52 PM EST up reply actions
Well yeah...
Obviously it’s hard to argue against the fact that Clay has a more impressive resume to this point, but with Kelly being so young and talented – I don’t think it’s a stretch to consider that his ceiling is relatively similar to that of Buchholz’s.
I think Kelly is the first prospect since Buchholz that I am truly excited about in terms of his potential; that kid is special.
I'd trade Kelly before Clay.
Clay probably has the higher cieling.
But Clay will bring a much more significant return.
USG
Assuming equal leverage, I'd go Kelly before Buchholz too
I like Clay’s new groundball tendency’s along with some K’s. Kelly has a nice chance of making his ceiling, but I don’t yet quite see him as an ace yet, mostly velocity based.
DFA Beckett
by South Coast Ghost on Jan 8, 2010 12:05 AM EST up reply actions
true
…but at the same time, he is doing a lot of work to incorporate some off-speed stuff into his list of go-to (strikeout) pitches from what I’ve read.
I guess it will be interesting to see how Buchholz does in 2010, I’m really hoping he starts to truly cement himself as a consistently-reliable starter this year.
I also like the fact
that he’s in the majors NOW, and still under control for a long time to come. Kelly’s only pitched in A ball, and I don’t see how he can be rated above someone with as impressive a resume as Buchholz.

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