Jason Bay Defense
by gbaked on Jan 6, 2010 10:54 PM EST
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PrintHello Bostonites
Met fan writing here... I was wondering what your takes on Jason Bays Defense is. Looking at the stats, most say he is pretty bad...
UZR has him rated at -11.2 while +/- has him at around -5. Both say he is below average.
However, I have a hard time trusting most Defensive stats. So I ask...
Since you all got to see him actually play, how is he out there?
Thank you!
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He is not a good defensive player.
But exactly how bad has been a subject of some debate in these parts. Some think the UZR is reflective of his skills, given that he was consistently bad over the last three years between Pittsburgh and Boston. Others (like me) think his Pittsburgh numbers were hurt by his knee problems and that his Boston numbers were hurt by Fenway.
We’re all curious to how he’ll do in 2010.
But you’ll love his bat. He carried us a couple of months last year. Hopefully he ages well.
Manny ain't the only bad man.
Yup
He’s bad. He’s slow and doesnt come in on balls well at all. He’s not a butcher – not noticably terrible, but he doesnt cover much ground anymore. I think he never really came back from his knee problems in Pittsburgh. We had high hopes when he arrived in Boston, but his defense was pretty bad the entire time. I wrote it off in 08 to SSS and adjustment issues. I was wrong.
This was the major reason I was praying we would let him walk. I would get giddy when I heard other teams interested. Nothing would have upset me more than giving 5 years to a guy on the wrong side of 30 with poor defense, who strikes out >30% of the time and who has a bad aging profile. Should have known Theo wouldnt fall for it – but the Mike Lowell deal (signing him after 07) scared me. I was strongly against re-signing Lowell then because I thought this is exactly what would happen. He actually was surprisingly good until the labrum surgery, but hey, if its not one thing its another with players his age, and he’s really not much of a hitter anymore despite the surface numbers looking deceivingly good.
Bay does some things well – he’s a good source of power and a potent offensive player in general. He’s a great guy and a nice teammate. He’s a good baserunner despite his lack of speed. As I said above, he’s a capable fielder who doesnt make atrocious errors or butcher balls, but his lack of speed and range is damning and the overall defensive package is poor to very poor. I really have terrible concerns about how he will age. He has already shown signs of decline in his peripherals – contra Mike Cameron, who has been more valuable than Bay every year for the last three and who, despite a far more advanced age than Bay, has shown absolutely no signs of decline. Bay’s component factors have been getting worse since he was 29 and trying to project him 3 years from now (nevermind 5!) scares the crap out of me, to be frank.
He's not going to make any bad plays out there
That’s one thing. He’s just not going to get to many balls. His throws are usually accurate, but it’s just a matter of him getting to balls. He’s not a stupid player, though.
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Good assessment.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
I have a five-tool player in my pants.
I remember him making some questionable throws at times
Let’s just say it’s not a plus arm out there. He’s also a bit slow. Not Adam Dunn slow, but slow nonetheless.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see him put up a 0>x>-5 UZR/150 next year and then decline from that.
DFA Beckett
by South Coast Ghost on Jan 7, 2010 4:07 PM EST up reply actions
If he gets there he makes the play. He will slide in or whatever, but he just does not have any kind of range. Good luck in a few years when he’s 35 years old.
"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw
Yep
Mets fans better hope the NL adopts the DH in a couple of years.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Jan 7, 2010 7:19 AM EST up reply actions
Mets scouts
say he is better defensivelt than Holliday. He basically stinks. Really really reluctant to aggressively move up/down to get to balls (moves ok laterally). Has a slow release on throws and a below average arm. Had a ton of assists, probably a function of people running on him and the Monster.
yes
I posted that because I find it so damn funny. Could that organization be any more dysfunctional? Remember the Bernazard/Minaya fiasco last year? I feel for Met fans.
Let's not get all crazy...
The Mets: Never the Greater Evil
(not that I actually have anything against the Mets)
Rock me, sexy Jesus...
by nuthinboutnuthin on Jan 9, 2010 3:41 PM EST up reply actions
Not Bad
Thank you for asking for observations, not defensive stats. I would sum it up like this – Bay will neither hurt or help the Mets with his glove. There were some balls hit to left that I thought could have been tracked down by better outfielders than Bay over the past season and a half, but I don’t recall any real bad plays.
Obvioulsy, his bat more than makes up for any minor defensive issues he has, I don’t care what the UZR ratings say. The Sox just did not want to go four years for Bay. Of course they couldn’t come out and say that, so we get all the defensive issues and bogus injury issues thown out there to the voracious media, blogger and stat hounds. Sorry, I know I’m a nearderthal here, but I would prefer to have Bay in left next season. Just silly me.
"wherewithal"?
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
I have a five-tool player in my pants.
The Sox offered him 4/60
I would go as far to say that that is overpaying him.
In 3 or 4 years people are going to be happy the Sox chose not to resign him. With a glutton of OF prospects (Westy, Kalish, Lin, Reddick, Fuentes), Bay would have found himself DHing anyway.
3 or 4
I think his #‘s will be down this yr playing in NY. Cameron may match him in HR’s
Not at that price, they won't.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
I have a five-tool player in my pants.
+1
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Jan 7, 2010 3:25 PM EST up reply actions
The Sox could get a cheaper DH who could potentially match his numbers
2011 Class includes:
Adam Dunn
Carlos Pena
Jorge Cantu
Jayson Werth
Lance Berkman (has a 15M club option)
Not including Rizzo or Anderson who could have breakout years and potentially platoon with a Russel Branyan-esque type at 1B.
I’m as much of a J-Bay fan as the next guy, but really, you cannot blame the Red Sox brass for letting him walk. Not only would they be regretting it in the long run, but they have effectively filled the holes that Bay’s departure left open. Beltre could smack 30 homers at Fenway, and he as well as Cameron and Scutaro make the club a more balanced, and in my opinion, better ball club.
Seems like Theo noticed what Jack Z did in Seattle last year
and thought, “I can keep the Redsox in the thick of things by signing some top notch defensive talent who also offer some offensive upside.” A run saved is a run earned.
He’s probably just waiting for a better class of free agents to go for another big splash signing.
I admit it, I like Adam Dunn for DH
He gets maligned a lot for all the strikeouts, but he walks a good bit too, and when he does swing he’s got power. Take him out of the field and there’s another negative neutralized.
I think someone will offer him a starting position though, and I don’t think he’s too keen on DHing yet.
DFA Beckett
by South Coast Ghost on Jan 7, 2010 4:09 PM EST up reply actions
I LOVE Adam Dunn for DH
Just so long as nobody is still stupid enough to sign him for LF, where he actually manages to mitigate his offense almost entirely.
USG
Well, there might be someone out there who would offer him a contract for 1B/LF
Do the Royals have a LFer after next year? I know Dayton Moore HATES defense!
DFA Beckett
by South Coast Ghost on Jan 7, 2010 6:17 PM EST up reply actions
All over Pena or Dunn
I would love Pena a 1B in 2011 and Dunn as the DH. My bet is both get traded during the season, unless Tampa is near the top of the division and maybe even then. Remember, they traded Kazmir last season, so they will trade assets before losing them even if they are in the race.
And Kazmir wasn't doing them any good. And they won't trade inside their own division, most likely.
USG
Let's compare career numbers
Adam Dunn: .249/.383/.520 (.384 wOBA)
Carlos Pena: .264/.381/.472 (.366 wOBA)
USG
After this yr
Ortiz, Martinez, Beltre may all be gone. thats not gonna leave bos much offense. Need a catcher-Mauer, DH-Dunn, & someone to play corner inf cause youk can play either
Victor
With Victor’s flexibility (C, 1B, DH) I’m betting he’s signed this year. I doubt the Sox get into a war for Mauer’s services. Ortiz is gone but at his stage very replaceable. Beltre – well we’ll wait and see
Fan Scouting Report
If you haven’t already, you should also check out the Fan Scouting Report. That can give you a sample of boston fan observations.
OP here
thanks guys/gals
basically a confirmation of what most of us met fans expected… but its nice to hear from the fans that watched him play.
Also – just to say… I am very happy with the signing. We needed a big bat, and after seeing what MH got from the cards, the Bay deal is a good one. It may get dicey at the end, but that doesnt turn the deal into a negative… at least for me.
I wish the best for Bay
even though his D was frustrating, I could never dislike the guy. And he can really go on some crazy streaks (both amazingly good and bad). He is a top notch offensive player.
I never saw him make the amazing play out there in left, but I never saw him make the bonehead play either ala Manny.
I feel like this is the major problem
with judging fielding by eye. It is human nature to remember the seemingly amazing plays (Ellsbury) or the boneheaded errors. When you have players that don’t make the boneheaded plays (like Bay) we tend to think they are somehow “ok.” We are conditioned to remember obvious errors but don’t pay much attention to balls that players should make plays on but don’t (afterall, these are not usually judged as errors). Thus, a guy like Alex Gonzalez, who if we pay attention, does not get to a lot of balls that he should, is deemed a great fielder. He is surehanded, and sometimes slick, and does not make boneheaded plays. On the otherhand Nick Green made some memorable boneheaded throwing errors. But Green had obviously superior range. The gap in fielding as it impacted the Sox was probably much smaller than we realize (as backed up by UZR) but our eyes and memory may disagree.
'Zactly
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Jan 7, 2010 8:28 PM EST up reply actions
but I guess that is my point
he is not average. He is a significantly below average fielder who does not make boneheaded plays. By nearly all metrics except fielding percentage he has been among the 5 worst LFs over the last 3 years.
Woof?
By UZR/150 Gonzo was more than twice as good as Green last season. He even beat him in cumulative UZR, despite playing 300 less innings at SS.
And in his first season with the Sox, 2006, he was the second best SS in baseball, behind Everett.
Sometimes the eyes don’t lie.
Manny ain't the only bad man.
I did not say
Green was better, I said the gap was smaller than people might realize. It is a small sample, but both were good. AGonz CAREER average UZR/150 is Nick Green’s. Pretty much exactly. So stop cherrypicking select years. Thus…sometimes the eyes lie.
Are you baiting me?
The “CAREER” comp is a joke. Last year, Green played 644.1 innings at SS. Over his career, he has played an additional 108 innings at SS. Or twelve games.
Your point, if I interpret it correctly, is that the naked eye and memory are deceptive. Thus, while we remember Green blowing a game here with an overthrow or committing three errors in another game, he wasn’t actually that bad. Fair enough. But then you suggest that Gonzalez isn’t as good as his rep, and that “our eyes and memory” mislead us, when in point of fact, for those of us who watched Gonzalez during his two seasons, he was basically twice as good as Green, by UZR/150.
Manny ain't the only bad man.
number of innings or not
Nick Green for his career is basically a different verson of Alex Gonzalez. Who would believe that based on what we have seen (and what we have seen for Gonzalez is his best work)? A better way to put it is we are not conditioned, ever to pay much attention to range. All of Green’s defensive value last year was in his range factor. He was in the minus for error factor. But his net is a nice plus. So, a better way of making the point would be-who by memory feels Nick Green was useful in the field?
As to opposed to your original point?
Which was, I believe, that the stats don’t support our respective memories of Green and Gonzalez? (event though they do…)
Manny ain't the only bad man.
First
I was talking about last year, not 2006. In the small sample size they are basically a wash (eg x/150 is meaningless when you play 300 innings). Second, talk about a laywer bait and switch. First you say that matching career lines is meaningless because of Green’s small sample. Then you trot out the comparison of last year’s Green and last year’s Gonzalez as proof of a factor of 2 difference between Green and Gonzo’s UZR. Basically at that level of sample, their UZRs are a wash (to look at statistics you have to take the number plus/minus the confidence interval or error bar-at thst sample size, at BEST, they are the same within error). Since I don’t think that Gonzo magically gets better at SS when he puts on a Sox uniform the best comparison one can make is to look at their career #s, and for Green that is small, but they say they are equally effective at SS.
Come on
You were talking about about eyes/memory versus stats -aI premise which I agree with. The eyes sometimes lie. But then you compared Green and Gonzalez to argue that are eyes/memory are deceptive, because while based on our memories Gonzalez might seem better, they are statistically very similar.
I’d guess most people on this website have never watched much of Gonzalez in a Marlins or Reds uniform. I know I haven’t. Our observational perceptions of him – by which he has seemed much better than Green, who himself wasn’t terrible – are based on his time in a Sox uniform. And his time in a Sox uniform is twice as good as Green, by UZR/150. An average of 17.6 over a season and a half, versus Green’s 8.3.
Yes, small sample size, but its the only sample we have to compare our eyes/memory with stats.
Manny ain't the only bad man.
It's not really fair to use Gonzo's career UZR numbers
A lot of his athletic prime came before 2002, the first year that UZR data was collected. It would probably be a lot higher if UZR included those years.
by Gnick on Jan 9, 2010 3:14 AM EST up reply actions
Dear Mets
Thanks for taking Jason Bay off our hands. Enjoy.
P.S. We’re almost even for 86 now. Almost…
Kidding. Not even close to even. Your two monster collapses sure made us feel better, though.
Ah, leave the poor Mets alone
Their fans hate the MFY almost as much as we do.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Jan 8, 2010 9:06 AM EST up reply actions
Oh Im a Mets fan every interleague series
Lets also not forget the jerks stole Pedro too, b/c they were foolish enough to give him a 4th year.
I dont really have any anger towards them though.
Bay's defense can be summed up with a pretend radio call.
“There’s a softly hit looper into left field, Bay is coming on and it…..drops in front of him for a hit.”
ALL…….YEAR…….LONG
Bay v Manny
Bay may not have had the best range, but at least he never vacated left field and went back into the Monster when there were only two outs, as I saw Manny do a couple times.
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