How much offense will the addition of Mike Cameron instead of Jason Bay cost the Sox?
by wolf9309 on Jan 28, 2010 11:09 AM EST
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Much ado has been made of what a significant contribution Mike Cameron will bring to the Red Sox defensively- between him moving to center and Ellsbury moving to left, the Red Sox will have pretty definitively one of the best defensive outfields in baseball.
Despite this significant addition, there are still those who do not believe that this difficult to measure defensive improvement will be enough to make up for the power that Jason Bay brought to the team in left field. Certainly, Cameron's career line of .250/.340/.448 doesn't look like much when stacked up to Bay's .280/.376/.519, however the fact also remains that Cameron will now be playing 81 games a year at Fenway Park, which may be much better suited to his hitting style- let's look at some of the facts after the jump-
Recently, there has also been a lot of discussion about Adrian Beltre and how he should improve at Fenway. Some people believe that as a righty with the Monster, he should rake at Fenway, but further analysis shows that Beltre is really great at hitting with power to all fields- which will serve him very well in a lot of different parks. Cameron, however, IS that dead pull hitter who should see his numbers dramatically improve at Fenway.
Now the first obvious thing is that he is a TRUE pull hitter. He hits to the left side with a lot of power- enough power that it looks like about half of the 14 doubles he hit at home last year would be homers, in addition to a few flyouts. Perhaps even more importantly, he's probably got a good 10 flyouts which would be turned into doubles with his speed on the basepaths. More than almost anyone else, this seems like a hitter made to play at Fenway Park. Certainly we won't see MVP type numbers for him, but from a many who typically hits 20-25 homers a year, it shouldn't be remotely unreasonable to expect something more like 25-30 in 2010, as well as seeing his batting average at home improve a fairly significant amount. Still, he strikes out quite a bit (though less than Bay), but he has always known how to take a walk, which he probably won't be losing anytime soon by joining a very patient Red Sox lineup.
In addition to this, while his hits for power all uniformly all to the left, he singles to all fields (something which Bay rarely did), meaning that he will keep the entire field on their toes- they can't all cheat too far to the left, because in those situations, he's very capable of singling into shallow right for example.
Overall, yes, he is an offensive downgrade from Bay, but should only be a slight one and I wouldn't be surprised to see him perform pretty much just as well at Fenway. Combined with his superior defense, the change from Bay to Cameron (for a shorter time period and less money per year) should be considered an absolute steal for the Front Office.
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I can't help but feel his age is going to start catching up with him
And that Fenway will more mitigate than multiply his numbers.
Still, he does seem to be tailor-made for the monster…
USG
Any reasons in particular...?
Bay is younger than Cameron, but Bay is the one with the TTO/old player skillset and Bay is the one who has shown signs of decline (diminished glove, increasing K rate, peripherals all worsening).
Cameron hasn’t really declined at all.
Certainly I expect Bay to, as well.
But Cameron is 37. It just boggles the mind how he’s remained so consistent.
It’s almost a gambler’s fallacy on my part, except that there is the fact that age regression DOES happen.
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Jan 28, 2010 11:52 AM EST up reply actions
I understand, but when you get a chance to really LOOK at Cameron, live
you will go, “Whoa!”
He is a physical stud – always has been. Tall, lean, built like a stallion. And a real fitness freak on top of his genetic gifts.
If he could have only hit for higher average, his career would have been a superstar career.
It wasn’t, so it was just a ‘very good’ career. But where his lack of hitting prowess never got him to superstardom, his real natural gifts will still keep him in the game a along time.
Barring injury, I don’t expect him to fade soon.
Pretty much where I am with him
BUT I do have the fear in the back of my mind that he’s 37…
I am still extremely happy we took a chance on him. I never wanted Bay back at all. I just think he’s seriously already in decline with the bat and his bad knees will make him a DH in a year or two.
No one doubts Bay is and will be a appreciably superior offensive player to Cameron in 2010 (and beyond a little). Bay has lots of power, will hit for a higher AVG and walks more. There really can be no arument about it. Fortunately, the offense isnt the entire story with these two. I fully expect Cameron to be a more valuable player than Bay in 2010, possibly by a good margin. Cameron is the better player. Bay’s glove will be harshly exposed in Flushing, and (despite their age difference) Bay is less likely to stay healthy.
I mean... he's 37 this year... so sheer odds are his age could catch up with him
But Cameron has a skillset that typically ages very well, and as I said, he hasnt shown any red flags in his components.
Trying to predict Bay and his bad knees for four years scared me a hell of a lot more than projecting Cameron for two.
Let’s not forget that Cameron’s offense+defense > Bay’s offense + defense. I realize this article is just about offense, but still… Cameron has been more valuable than Bay the last three years.
Again, I'm not trying to compare him and Bay in that way.
I love the Cameron signing. Love it. Especially in comparison to what a Bay signing would’ve entailed. I’m just saying I’m naturally worried about this 37-year-old superman who seems to feel no effects of aging.
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Jan 28, 2010 11:56 AM EST up reply actions
It does give me pause that we signed a 37 yo for 2 years...
I was just wondering above if there was a specific thing you were looking at that was concerning you that his age would catch up to him, or if it was just general concern. I completely understand the general concern.
The upside is that as 37 year olds go, this guy is as good a bet to hold up as you could find.
absolutely agree about the general Cameron>Bay
just so much has already been discussed on the defensive side that I wanted to make a few points about his offense as well.
Cameron doesnt make up for Bay
But I think the OFF will be better.
Martinez all year (Less ab’s 4 tek)
Beltre away from sea should be solid
Scutaro is an improv over last year
2009 XBHs
Cameron – 32 – 3 – 24 = 59 in 628 PAs
Bay – 29 – 3 – 36 = 68 in 638 PAs
Don’t really care that much about the age factor….heck Julio Franco played until 45. If you are a workout/training beast like Cameron, Franco, Jerry Rice type of athlete I think age is less of a factor.
So...
You’ve got a guy with 9 more extra-base-hits in 10 more plate appearances….I see a drop-off but only a slight one….then of course you have the other factors
Defense: Cameron >>>>>>>>>>>> Bay
Contract: Cameron >>>>>>>>>>>> Bay
I like the Cameron signing
Defense & cost are much better. But I dont see Cameron making up for 36 119/103.
but does he have to?
Really?
Say he goes 26 80/88 (easily obtainable)…that’s a difference of 10 39/15
Which will easily be made up by Scutaro/Full year of V-Mart.
Basically the upgrades at SS and C by far offset any downgrades in the OF…its not like we are throwing Yuniesky Betancourt out there
I agree, thats fine
26 80/80 sound about right and the other upgrades on the team should more than make up for the Dif. But your early post said only slight drop off from Bay. 26 80/80 to 36 100/100 is more than slight to me.
I’m also real high on Beltre this year and think Bos will score more runs than last year
Overall yes..
I agree that the additions of Beltre, Scutaro and V-mart for a full season may very likely make up for the loss of Bay, but don’t thow away 10 home runs and 30 RBI’s like nothing, especially in a compettitive division like the AL East. There is also the lineup factor; Bay is a middle of the lineup power threat, while I don’t think Cameron has ever been thought of that way. There is a lot to be said for a bat in the middle of the lineup that puts fear into opposing pitchers and makes the other team make moves and the pitchers thow better, more predictable pitches. We all heard the same thing when Bay replaced Manny – “hey, its only 10 homers less”. While Manny had to go and Bay was an excellent replacement, we all saw that Bay was not the hitter Manny is/was. He is simply an easier out and Cameron is an easiser out than Bay.
I wouldn't throw them away like they were nothing, but
I would throw them away if I thought that by doing so I could save even MORE in their equivalent runs defensively.
Doesn’t really matter what division you are in.
Not sure about line up
I’m thinking Ells, Pedroia, Vmart, Youk, Otiz, Beltre, Drew, Cam, Scut.
Went Lefty/righty from Youk on. I think Beltre will have a big year. Hurt last yr, but very consistant b4 that. His away games from sea much better. Also a contract yr
Prob what their do
I’d do Beltre. Gonna have a big yr. Heard it here
do you just swap Drew and Ortiz?
That could be pretty good.
Personally I like
Ells
Pedroia
Drew
Youk
Ortiz
Beltre
Vmart
Cameron
Scutaro
Or maybe reverse Vmart and Ortiz, but I think a little less pressure on him would be nice if he’s catching every day. Plus keeps the bottom of the order nice and balanced with high OBP guys throughout
Vmart to low at 7th
switch with Otiz would be ok.
I think it depends on which version of Ortiz we see in ST
If it’s Ortiz anything like his second half last year, I’d rather give Martinez the break personally.
Yes,But
Ortiz after may had the most HR’s & RBI in the AL. But Vmart cant be that low. Back to what I 1st Said. Drew 7th betwenn Drew & Cam
Nah I just disagree
Drew= higher OBP, SLG, and OPS than Martinez, I’d rather have him higher in the order.
I think an ideal Sox lineup
would be:
Ellsbury
Pedroia
Victor
Youk
Drew
Ortiz
Cameron
Beltre
Scutaro
Victor worked wonders in the 3 hole during his 2 months with the Sox last year.
Also some good OBP and power at the bottom end.
by FloridaownsFSU on Jan 29, 2010 8:59 PM EST up reply actions
Can't hurt
to be going from Safeco to Fenway…
I figure 25 homeruns sound like a good estimate.
by FloridaownsFSU on Jan 29, 2010 9:04 PM EST up reply actions
R/L
The bottom 5 in your proposed lineup go:
L,L,R,R,R
It’s better to mix it up a bit. Unless Ortiz dazzles in ST, I’d like to see:
Ells
Pedroia
VMart
Youk
Drew
Beltre
Ortiz
Cameron
Scutaro
I understand
I’m merely looking at it in a way I feel would maximize the efficiency of the Red Sox lineup.
But you’re right in noting that there has to be some safeguarding against very easy matchups problems late in games.
by FloridaownsFSU on Feb 2, 2010 8:39 PM EST up reply actions
VMart n others make things happen
Drew does everything above avg, but he doesnt seem to get things done. I like Vmart 3rd. has 100 rbi, seems JD has the skills but frustatated with him
Have any way to back that claim up?
’Cause it seems to me like he does everything damn well.
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Jan 29, 2010 9:16 PM EST up reply actions
for someone who seems to like SABR stats I can't believe you're forgetting
CHR- Clutch/Hustle Rating
Comparing Runs and RBI is foolish here
Bay batted in the middle of the order behind a bunch of guys who get on base a ton and in front of guys who were pretty good hitters.
Cameron is going to bat near the bottom of the order with many less Run and RBI chances. Bay could accumulate many more at bats, for that matter. So to stand there at the end of 2010 and say “look at all the Runs and RBIs we lost!” is a pretty unfair treatment.
Rs and RBI are team dependant things. Teammates have as much to do with them as the player himself. They are never a good way to evaluate a player.
True
But there’s no question that Bay is a better offensive player than Cameron. Bay was a 113.1 and 112.5 wRC hitter the last two seasons, compared to 71.5 and 84 wRC for Cameron. Bay’s wRAA was 36 last year, compared to 8.8 for Cameron. Bay’s .397 wOBA last year was better than his career wOBA of .384. Cameron’s .346 wOBA in 2009 was right in-line with career numbers (.347 wOBA).
Bay’s entire value is based on offense. In contrast, Cameron’s value is in his defense. But his offense isn’t awful. Offensively, the Sox have traded Lowell and Bay for a pair of Lowell’s (Cameron and Beltre are comparable hitters to Lowell). That said, VMart and Scutaro are definite offensive upgrades over what the Sox had at SS and C for most of last year.
As long as the Sox are healthy in 2010, their offense should be around what it was last year (it may even improve) and their run-prevention should be much better.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Jan 28, 2010 2:32 PM EST up reply actions
I said above
No one doubts Bay is and will be a appreciably superior offensive player to Cameron in 2010 (and beyond a little). Bay has lots of power, will hit for a higher AVG and walks more. There really can be no argument about it.
But I agree completely with your take
I think we score just about as many runs, and I can envision a number of scenarios where we better last year’s mark…
Another park factor that will probably help his average is the foul line down LF
A fair handful of Cameron’s outs each year are deep LF fly ball outs in foul territory. Fenway has virtually no foul territory there – just seats. That will keep him alive for a few more hacks at the ball. :-) Not many, but every extra pitch helps!
Pitchers will probably adjust and pitch him down low & outside to prevent him pulling. That’s happened to him before and sometimes that has turned into a K fest for him – we’ll all have to grit our teeth and endure it until he adjusts. When he’s adjusted in the past he’s turned into a singles hitter for stretches. No real power that way, but he can be pretty effect still.
Yeah, I can totally seeing him putting up a (superficially park adjusted) monster year
Career high batting AVG and HRs very possible.
i absolutely can barring age related regression
looking at the spray chart from 2009, I see easily 8 flyouts which would have been turned into doubles or homers, with 6-7 doubles that would have had a chance of being homers- which if we’re being relatively conservative (say of those 14 possible hits, 10 are doubles and 4 are homers) would easily make it a year batting .264 with 40 doubles and 28 homers
If I’m calculating that all right, that would be a .264/.356/.511 year
now obviously that’s quite situational and he won’t be hitting in the same exact situations with the Sox and so then numbers won’t be quite the same, but I do think that we can expect to see his numbers improve dramatically.
mostly 5th and 6th
he was awful 5th and quite good 6th.
I was watching the first few games of the Brewers’ season the other day and Cameron got me very excited in game 1 by going 1 for 1 with 4 walks and 2 stolen bases (or was it three… it was a lot).
when he's patient and doesn't try to pull the outside pitch, he's a pretty fair hitter
and will get on base. Fortunately he will get plenty of reinforcement to do those things from the Red Sox coaches since that is their mantra.
4th
i believe Cameron has hit some clean up in the past and posted some good power numbers.
i know it sounds crazy :p but can you show me some stats that prove i am nuts?
he's hit well 4th
but in a very small sample size- starting 53 games over his long career. The fact is we just have much better hitters on the Sox than Cameron- enough that he shouldn’t be near that part of the order.
He should have good power, but won’t produce as well as someone like Youk.
The defensive bonus could actually be even more than suggested.
We’re going from Bay-Ellsbury-Drew to Ellsbury-Cameron-Drew, which could easily increase defense substantially at two positions (CF and LF). Personally, I think Ells’ poor defensive numbers were an aberration, and we can expect better numbers going forward regardless. Other CFs moved to left have produced well defensively (thinking Carl Crawford and Coco Crisp).
There’s also the argument that LF, with less ground to cover, will mean less wear on Ellsbury both physically (less running) and mentally (less to worry about defensively), which could benefit his stealing game. I’m not sure how much truth there is to this.
"It's just a tiny little nick, but it hurts when I get champagne in there."
- Jason Bay, on getting spiked scoring the winning run in ALDS Game Four.
i don't know that it will help his baserunning
but when Ells HAS played LF in the past (i.e. with Crisp in CF) he has done very well defensively.
Getting reads off the bat is simply much, much easier in LF than in CF. That’s his main weakness in CF (well his arm is not great either but its more than good enough for LF in Fenway).
I don't really know
if it’s a completely fair way to measure the Sox offense by comparing Cameron to Bay (if that is indeed what this is). Cameron isn’t an offensive upgrade from Bay, but he’s not being paid to be. That’s where the signings of Scutaro and Beltre are also supposed to aid the Sox.
And the defense has also been helped insurmountably. I tend to think that defense is almost overvalued by this point, but it still has a very big impact. The Red Sox boast average to above average defenders all across the diamond. Couple that with their rotation, and they made not even need to make up all the offense they lost with Bay, in order to be a better team in 2010 than they were in 2009.
it's not a fair measure of the sox offense
but it’s the one position where a significant amount of people argue that there might be a downgrade. Looking purely offensively, keep in mind. I hold that the defense is actually better than your statement comes off as- the way I see it:
Youk, Pedroia, Beltre, Ellsbury, Cameron, Drew are all very plus defensive players at their positions
Scutaro is around average – but I loved his placement and his defense should be helped by being surrounded by some of the better defensive players in the game
Martinez, I have no idea. I don’t know how to quantify how good a catcher’s defense is other than how much pitchers like them. But no one else does either.
So really I only see two positions that don’t have fantastic defense. I really like this team, if you couldn’t tell.
Toronto is on turf right?
Scooter would probably benefit from playing most of his games on grass too.
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 28, 2010 4:11 PM EST up reply actions
and
Having a 3B with range like Beltre….Scutaro wont have to go for many balls in the hole…mainly because they wont get there
and a 1B who catches everything thrown near him
and a 2B who can both start and turn the double play with him (and help cover the gap up the middle) …
It all helps. Scutaro is going to have the cushiest SS job in the league …
every time I imagine Ells in left field
I always think about that catch he made to make it two out in the bottom of the ninth in Game 4 of the 07 WS. He sure got a great read on that ball, and in a crucial situation.
Cameron
It really boils down to when you hit, and not necessarily how much you hit. Do you get big hits in 4-3 games versus 13-5 games? Never-the-less the offense to be successful requires Big Papi to have a big year.
That’s the opposite of what it boils down to, it’s completely unfair to only consider context when evaluating a player’s hitting performance. It’s akin to saying that RBIs and Runs are good measures how well a player has hit.
by Gnick on Jan 29, 2010 3:56 PM EST up reply actions
Indeed
All you’re describing, Splinters, is dumb luck.
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Jan 29, 2010 4:35 PM EST up reply actions
I wonder.
Think of how scouts, when evaluating a pitcher in a side session, will add a couple miles per hour to his FB on the theory that in a game situation he will benefit from extra adrenaline. The recent Chapman bullpen session in particular comes to mind.
So adrenaline exists, and effects pitching performance. Why dismiss its effect on hitting?
Manny ain't the only bad man.
Well… not so sure scouts pull out the gun for side sessions that often. They try to stick to games for that reason.
On the Chapman thing – this was in the middle of winter and he wasn’t on a throwing program/hadnt been throwing and he still impressed a ton. We also have PitchFX on him from the WBC. He’s for real and the velocity is legit…
No doubt his velocity is legit.
And no doubt pitching in January will yield different results than pitching in July. But I read it all the time, that when a pitcher is throwing for scouts as opposed to in a game situation, scouts will project his game velocity as a bit higher due to the adrenaline.
But as for the larger question, whether “clutch” exits, count me with Bill James as someone who considers it an open question (see his article “”http://cyrilmorong.com/ClutchLinks2.htm" >Underestimating the Fog" here).
Manny ain't the only bad man.
Another Cameron comment.
Unless a player has lost it, he will usually perform like the rest of the offense is performing. How much base traffic is in front of him. Will he take his walks. If he can be persuaded to take his walks, the next thing you know pitchers will have to challenge him instead of trying to get him fishing. If the hitters behind you are capable, the I got to do it myself syndrome can disappear. Tougher to convince a younger player who wants to hit HRS and drive in runs. Hopefully Mike is at the age where just winning becomes more important, and he still has the ability to be a plus player.
He's generally been pretty good at taking walks
he has a pretty consistent 10%+ walk rate and a career OBP 90 points over his career BA. His O-swing percentage (how often he swings at pitches outside the zone) is well below average- he’s pretty patient. Where he seems to have the most trouble is a contact rate well below average.
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