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Will the Red Sox Finally Go to Arbitration?

In his seven years as the general manager of the Red Sox, Theo Epstein has not once gone to arbitration over the salary of a player. Today, with mere hours to go before the deadline for teams to hammer out deals with their arbitration-eligible players [Edit: As Wolf has pointed out, I'm completely wrong on this. The deadline is actually for exchanging figures.] , he would have to complete four deals to maintain his spotless record.

 

Star-divide

 

It's not too surprising that Theo would want to avoid arbitration. After all, arbitration is, at its core, a fight between the player and the team. A fight where the front office will have to explain, in detail, why they think a player isn't good enough to earn more money. It doesn't exactly make for a comfortable workplace, as you can imagine.

 

The main holdout this year is Jonathan Papelbon. This will come as no surprise to Red Sox fans who will remember that the closer has often made talk of setting new bars in free agency and going year-to-year to make as much as possible. Last year, Papelbon signed a record-setting $6.25 million contract with the Red Sox right before the deadline. This year, it's expected that he could make up to $10 million.


This year Papelbon is joined by fellow relievers Ramon Ramirez and Manny Delcarmen, as well as outfielder Jeremy Hermida. For Ramirez and Delcarmen, it will be their first time eligible for arbitration. Hermida signed a $2.25 million contract right before the deadline last year to avoid arbitration.

 

Of the other three players, the widest gap between the team and player would likely be found with Manny Delcarmen. After 2 good years with the club in 2007 and 2008, Delcarmen fell apart down the stretch to finish with a 4.53 ERA in 59.2 innings pitched. Recent reports of late-season arm injury (which is now supposed to be completely healed) seem to be timed very conveniently for an agent trying to make the case that his client's late-season meltdown should be overlooked.

 

Still, though, if the difference is only a few hundred thousand dollars, would it really be worth risking the relationship between the team and player for a club that has as high a payroll as the Red Sox? Possibly. To begin with, the club will likely be pushed over the Collective Bargaining Agreement's luxury tax threshold when all arbitration-eligible contracts are factored in. A few hundred thousand here or there could be the difference if the Red Sox were to attempt to shed some payroll in order to get underneath the $170 million limit.

 

It also has to be considered how solid the relationship between the player and the club is to begin with. In the case of Papelbon, Delcarmen, and Hermida, how much is there to lose? Papelbon's outspoken ways haven't done anything to endear him to ownership. Delcarmen was seemingly being shopped around the trade deadline last year, and concealed an injury from the team. And Jeremy Hermida is a newcomer who was told he would be traded if the Red Sox signed Jason Bay; is Mike Cameron really such a different situation?

 

When all is said and done, Theo may no longer have enough incentive to avoid arbitration, regardless of how minor the financial gains may end up.

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nah this isn't the deadline

just the deadline to exchange numbers. After the numbers are publicly exchanged, they’re still able to negotiate up until the minute they walk into the arbitration room (Wily Mo style), which isn’t until february.

by wolf9309 on Jan 19, 2010 9:38 AM EST reply actions  

Well, that sort of shoots me in the foot.

Teach me to try and write while jet lagged. Oh well, the rest still stands.

USG

by Ben Buchanan on Jan 19, 2010 10:07 AM EST up reply actions  

I think Ramirez and Hermida will strike deals

…and Delcarmen and Papelbon file for arbitration.

by Justin_Bobo on Jan 19, 2010 1:24 PM EST reply actions  

God Paps annoys me

Everyone else is amenable to compromise and agreement on the club, while Paps refuses to play along. Paps is the Rhode Island compared to the Red Sox’ Continental Congress.

Building Fenway from the ground up - Virtual Fenway

by Sean O on Jan 19, 2010 2:11 PM EST reply actions  

It doesn't annoy me that much

Paps has chosen he wants money more then being on a championship quality team for years to come. The Sox will move on without him, if he keeps deciding to go this route. I don’t really want a player that only thinks about himself and not the team.

Let the Mets or some team sign him for more then he is worth and he will wish he stayed with us once the postseason comes along and he isn’t in it.

by drabidea on Jan 19, 2010 2:46 PM EST up reply actions  

Ultimately, it is in the best interest of all for the player to get paid market rate.

When Aroyo took a home team discount to stay with the Red Sox – how well did that work for him?

Similarly, when teams overpay to keep fan favorites around – that unfortunately means … overpaying.

Paps is trying to ‘set the market’ for his vocation. The Red Sox shouldn’t pay him more than they think he is worth. But he shouldn’t accept less. For one year, I think this ($9.35M) is reasonable – no commitments beyond so we can replace him with Bard past this year, yet it preserves a huge cog in our 2011 championship plan.

by mmmmm on Jan 19, 2010 5:33 PM EST up reply actions  

Bradford says that the Red Sox and Papelbon have an agreement in principle

$9.35 M.

"You know you're having a bad day when the fifth inning rolls around and they drag the warning track." - Mike Flanagan, Baltimore Orioles pitcher, 1992.

by SoxDevil on Jan 19, 2010 3:04 PM EST reply actions  

Notice the Sox Are Not Buying any FA time from Paps.

The continued 1 year deals for Jonathon are telling in themselves. The Sox evidently feel the same as drabidea, and Paplebon is OK with that. Hopefully Bard matures into the closer role sometime this year because the stepdancer is gone come FA. I personally like a player with quirks but am also fully aware that they are often not team players. The thing is, this time it may work out in the Sox favor. Unless Paplebon can get his second pitch working again and learn a third, he is going to see a drastic drop in his value, and the Sox will be looking at a supplemental draft pick worth almost as much. For Pap’s sake I hope he has started working his craft.

by NJ Native on Jan 19, 2010 8:08 PM EST reply actions  

Unless Paplebon can get his second pitch working again and learn a third, he is going to see a drastic drop in his value

That’s a tad too strong for me. He was still one of the handful of best relievers in the game despite those issues.

by alskor on Jan 19, 2010 8:28 PM EST up reply actions  

Agreed - Pap doesn't need a third pitch.

As Mariano shows year after year – controlling velocity (hard and f*&king harder) and location (sing: “Head, Shoulders, Knees and Toes! Knees and Toes!”) is far more important for a closer than pitch variety.

Paps is definitely one of the top 5 closers in the game and I don’t see any sign that he will fade soon from that.

But I still totally agree with Theo’s approach here and expect us to eventually let him walk.

by mmmmm on Jan 20, 2010 10:51 AM EST up reply actions  

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