Jason Bay, Red Sox Had Deal In Place In July
by Randy Booth on Jan 18, 2010 8:18 PM EST
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PrintJason Bay and the Red Sox had agreed to a four-year contract during the middle of the 2009 season, according to Peter Gammons, but concerns about his knees stalled the deal:
"You had the same thing here with Jason Bay, when he agreed to the four-year, $60 million deal near the end of July and then the MRI showed some problems with both knees," said Gammons. "Ownership wanted it to be two years and he had to prove that he was healthy to be able to make it four years, and he wouldn’t sign. This is no reflection on [Red Sox team physician Dr. Thomas] Gill and the Red Sox doctors, because they are probably the best in any sport. But the fact is, there becomes this disconnect where the player says, ‘Is he doing this for the owners or is he doing this because of my knee?’ That independent panel, I think, will almost certainly be a compromise that the owners will make."
If this is true -- and we really have no reason to think it isn't -- then the Red Sox's lack of interest in Bay during the offseason is really due to health concerns. The Red Sox have obviously done this in the past with players like Pedro Martinez, but it wasn't as obvious in this case. We'll see how it works out for the Mets.
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I was upset at first
about bay going to the mets, then about 5 minutes later realized his fielding was terrible, and this just makes me relieved. Good call Theo.
by leftcoastsoxfan on Jan 18, 2010 9:00 PM EST reply actions
Welcome to OTM LeftCoastSoxFan
I hope you’ll post here often ’cause it will be a great addition to this community.
"That was a lot of fun… You just keep pounding balls into the gap. The one thing you don’t want to do is hit a home run. That’s a rally-killer." Jeff Francoeur
Also
How hilarious is it that he settled for a 4 year deal at 15 per in July, but to go to the Mets, even when he had no other strong suitors, he needed 4 years at 16.5 per and an easily vesting 5th year?!
No, Im sure he really wanted to play in Flushing…
Just as funny is that the Mets were willing to give a deal like that to Jason Bay! My God… Omar Minaya is a train wreck.
The Sox were right about Pedro
He had one good year for the Mets before his shoulder fell off. Then he pitched ok when they duct taped it back on, but he wasn’t worth the big contract anymore.
I’m pretty confident they’re right about Bay too.
Then again
I wasn’t too happy with 4/60 even if Bay was healthy.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Jan 19, 2010 9:32 AM EST up reply actions
at least
we know that the team’s medical staff is doing their due diligence these days. Hopefully we won’t have as many breakdowns in the future.
Imagine the reaction of Mets fans if Bay blows out a knee this year
Especially after the Beltran situation.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Jan 19, 2010 10:22 AM EST up reply actions
have the met's ever had a good sighning with a free agent?
seems like the type "a"s’ go there for big bucks and to live in manhattan. bay will follow suit.
k-rod had a good year
i expect that will continue
K-Rod wasn't very good
He posted his lowest K-rate, walked 5.03 hitters per 9 innings (his worst rate ever), and had a 4.01 FIP (also his worst). He is another example of a bad Mets signing, as his K-rates have been dropping and his BB-rates climbing for a few seasons. New York owes him $25.5 million for the next two years.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Jan 19, 2010 3:56 PM EST up reply actions
They got blinded the number of saves he had in 2008
They really don’t understand statistics. I’d bet that if a pitcher wins 20 games this year with an ERA over 5.00, a low K/9, and an average BABIP, the Mets will offer him $15M or more per year in free agency and not understand why no one else is making a bid.
Exactly
That’s why they’re a bad organization.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Jan 20, 2010 11:33 AM EST up reply actions
Not quite
You have the causality reversed. It’s not that the signing makes them a bad organization, it’s that they made the signing because they’re a bad organization.
Or, to be generous, because their organization is about 30 years behind the times.
i didnt even look at his stats
just kinda figured he did. wow, that is pretty horrible. poor mets.
pedro, lowe, et al
the sox have made a lot of good decisions on “no signs”. lowe, pedro, tek (got his posada like #’s down), gagmee, manchild, bay
only two blown none signings: johnny damon. initially, that ‘none signing’ looked very good for the first 2 years and Jose Offerman who may become available in 5 to life.
the free agent signing’s that flunked – julio.
i think the sox were going to let lowell go after 2007, but fan pressure and the emotion of october 2007, changed their mind. i think they would have only offered 2 years but the phill’s were offering 3 at more moola. both sides compromised.
generally, i trust their moves.
except for trades.
While Johnny's bat stayed pretty good
His defense went in a huge hole and he missed a good amount of time due to injuries. In fact, his defense is so bad he remains w/out a contract in january despite putting up a very good offensive season.
He is the one guy I really regret not keeping, though.
Offerman was Duquette.
True
The thing most people forget when talking about Damon is that he was signed to play CF, but only started 78 games in CF after 2006. Since Damon could no longer play CF, and the Sox had Manny in LF, they were right to let him go.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Jan 19, 2010 4:00 PM EST up reply actions
Trades
Actually most of the trades in recent history have been decent – I say “most”
Great – Pedro trade (Pavano/Armas), Lowe/Varitek trade (Slocumb), Schilling trade (Goss/Fossum/Lyon/DeLaRosa)
Good – Ramirez/Bay swap (Moss/Hansen), Crisp trade (Shoppach/Marte/Mota), Victor Martinez trade (Masterson/Hagadone/Price)
Arguable – Beckett/Lowell/Mota for Hanley/Anibal
Bad – Meredith for Mirabelli, Murphy+ for Gagne
Arguable????
Ok, seriously, the Beckett and Lowell trade for Hanley has to at least be considered good. I would consider it great. Without that trade there is no way they would have won the World Series in 2007. Now, I guess you could say Hanley has become a superstar and therefore it is arguable, but he definitely would not have won them a series in ‘07. And I doubt he would have led them to one last year or in ’08. Beckett’s performance in the ’07 playoffs was one of the greatest ever and Lowell was the MVP in the W.S.
Fine by me.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
I have a five-tool player in my pants.
The Mets...
…are like a hot girl with low self esteem.
So...
you want to buy the Mets a drink…?
Id say the Mets are more like a tough broad with a big bank account who knows they arent all that good looking.
No...
A hot girl with low self esteem buys you the drink, because they don’t realize they don’t have to. And that’s what the Mets do, they overpay. That’s basically what I was trying to say.
by pedrewkilis on Jan 20, 2010 12:45 AM EST up reply actions
I thought I would have to rant again about how we're better off without JayBay
But it seems like Sox fans once again are the smartest in the world and have already figured it out. He can’t defend or throw, strikes out 190 times, goes into months-long slumps, and makes poor contact. We see beyond HR’s and RBI’s and ’he’s a super nice guy’. I like you as a person Jason. Just not as my team’s left fielder.
Well, we'd be better off with him.
Just because I’m pretty sure he’ll be better than Papi this year.
But all in-a-vacuum nitpicking and foolishness aside, yeah, the “Jason Bay must be resigned” sentiment mostly died out around the time he hit that slump. Now, had he maintained that ridiuclous >1 OPS…
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Jan 19, 2010 10:47 AM EST up reply actions
Just because I’m pretty sure he’ll be better than Papi this year.
You’re sure? Guess which projection is which:
Bill James
Player A: .264/.369/.519
Player B: .268/.374/.504
Marcel
Player A: .264/.363/.493
Player B: .264/.358/.491
ZiPS
Player A: .260/.366/.507 OPS+ 126
Player B: .268/.368/.507 OPS+ 126
Further, only one of these guys would require a huge, multi-year commitment…
And my predictions say he'll be better than Papi this year.
Or would be in Fenway, at least.
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Jan 19, 2010 5:18 PM EST up reply actions
The ZiPS was for Fenway
The others Im not sure. I dont think Marcel gets that complicated. Its just a three year sample with regression and aging components.
I dont know if that Bill James was updated. it was taken from frangraphs and I dont think the Beltre projection there has changed since he signed…
Bay IS in the NL, now, too, so if they arent adjusted that’s a plus for him.
Stick a gun to my head and I probably choose Bay for the better production in ’10. Im just trying to make the point that its not really a clear and obvious choice… Ortiz was a pretty fantastic hitter for four months last year. He is only 34 yo in 2010, which isnt that far from Bay.
Im an unrepentant, unabashed, HUGE Papi fan, so perhaps Im overly optimistic, but I really think he can put up a .26x/.37x/.5xx line in 2010. It would not surprise me at all to see him end up with the best production of any DH, though he will still be overpaid at $13mm… I would be pretty happy if they bring him back for $6-7mm in 2011 and beyond. He’s likely good for 2 wins with the bat (CHONE has him worth 2.3 – and CHONE is the most pessimistic of the projections on him). As long as he plays a full season, his value over replacement will negate his negative positional adjustment, so he’ll continue to be worth ~2 wins, which is worth between $7mm and $10mm in free agency these days.
If he actually performs like I expect we may have an ugly situation on our hands where he might not want to take much of paycut. Getting way ahead of myself there, though. Plus, who is going to throw money at a 35 year old Big Papi? So I say 75% he’s back in 2011…
There was an updated ZiPS for Bay once he signed with the Mets, actually...
http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/mets_signed_bay/
.270/.369/.523 OPS+ 136 (formerly .268/.368/.507 OPS+ 126)
vs.
Ortiz’s .268/.368/.507 OPS+ 126
Still not a big difference. In fact, Bay did get a boost of .002/.001/-.016 and 10 points of OPS by moving to the NL and to Flushing.
Ortiz was a pretty fantastic hitter for 2 months last year.
He had an OBP of .330 or less in July and August.
And he’s got a nice two-year trend of getting significantly worse.
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Jan 19, 2010 5:57 PM EST up reply actions
Eh
He just said we’d be better off and with an empasis on this year…
Bay is still a very good offensive player. I think people just forget that there lots of reasons to think Ortiz is still a very good offensive player, too. Yes, he’s declined from where he was – but where he was was awesome. He has a long way to fall.
No
Which is why I called it “in-a-vacuum nitpicking and foolishness”
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Jan 19, 2010 5:17 PM EST up reply actions
I dunno
If I had to lay money on which player would have a better seasons at least in terms of OPS I’d have to think about it……Might still go with Bay…but I’d at least think about it.
Not in Fenway, for me.
It’s a blowout in Fenway.
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Jan 19, 2010 5:19 PM EST up reply actions
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