Too Many Question Marks in Boston's Bullpen
by Ben Buchanan on Jan 16, 2010 6:00 AM EST
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Early last year, there seemed to be only one certain thing about Boston pitching: the middle relief was going to get the job done. While dealing with the early struggles of Jon Lester and Josh Beckett, Jonathan Papelbon's heart-attack inducing performances, injuries, and mediocrity from the bottom half of the rotation (Wakefield excluded—he did pretty good for us), the Sox could at least feel secure about innings 7 and 8. On May 25th, both Ramon Ramirez and Manny Delcarmen were maintaining ERAs under 1, Hideki Okajima had managed to recover from early struggles to bring his ERA under 3, and Takashi Saito was doing his best to follow suit.
But then something went horribly wrong.
Manny Delcarmen would tank the rest of the season, never having a month with an ERA under 4 after May. His ERA after the All- Star break was an awful 7.27. Ramon Ramirez would at least manage a 3.48 ERA in the same time period, but couldn't break under 4.00 in either August (4.15) or September (4.36). Okajima managed a 1.64 ERA in August, but then imploded in September with 6 runs in 7.1 innings.
Those are 3 of 4 returning members of last year's middle relief: a trio of relievers who spent the latter parts of the season putting up numbers which would be at best average for starters. The final member is Daniel Bard, a rookie who has fantastic potential, but can't necessarily be counted on yet. In short, another question mark.
Theo has to ask himself: is this going to cut it? In 2007, the Red Sox utilized Declarmen and Okajima as a top-notch combo for the 7th and 8th innings. But Manny Delcarmen has been incredibly inconsistent since then, and Hideki Okajima has lost some of his effectiveness as he ages, and as opposing hitters figure out his unusual delivery more and more. Their numbers look nothing like they did in the championship season.
For a team that seeks to play low-scoring games and base their team around run prevention, having a strong bullpen is absolutely essential. While the Sox may be hoping that their improved defense will improve their bullpen performance (and undoubtedly, there will be some change), can we really put our faith in a guy like Manny Delcarmen, who walks more than 5 guys per 9 innings? What about Ramon Ramirez, who spent the last half of 2009 as a ROOGY? Currently, the Sox have nobody outside of Papelbon who can shut down guys from both sides of the plate. Delcarmen had a .936 OPS against facing righties last year (odd, given that he's right handed, but it follows the career trend), while Okajima was barely better at .901. Lefties managed a .792 OPS against Ramon Ramirez, and a .859 OPS against Bard (there is some hope here, as Bard's minor league splits do not show a problem against lefties—in fact, he was better against them). An alternating lineup with decent pinch hitting could eat this bullpen alive if these trends were to continue.
What's most puzzling is that the Sox have seemingly chosen to ignore this problem. While they have signed a plethora of relievers, none of them are impressive names, and all seem likely to compete for only the final bullpen slot. Meanwhile, players like Kiko Calero or Chan Ho Park (as a reliever), who did well against lefties and righties alike, haven't even been mentioned in the same sentence as the Red Sox.
Perhaps the Red Sox think there will be options in the trade market later, if they need them. Perhaps they expect a turnaround from 1 or more of our players. Maybe they just think the defense will make all the difference. But right now, Tito will be hard pressed to find anyone he can trust to go a full inning against a balanced team, much less the switch-hitting Yankees.
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I think at any rate our bullpen looks better to start than 2009's
last years opening day bullpen was: Papelbon, Ramram, MDC, Saito, Oki, Masterson, and Lopez.
This year’s is Papelbon, Ramram, MDC, Oki, then a lot of options. If it ends up with something like Wake and Richardson there in addition, that’s much better that Lopez and Masterson.
I think the reason we have half of the league’s underwhelming relievers is so that if someone starts to have issues, we have another half dozen options to bring up.
No. He's their closer of the future.
At least, they wouldn’t move him without getting more than they give.
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 16, 2010 11:50 AM EST up reply actions
Problem is
That someone who has a major league contract would have to be displaced via trade or sent through waivers. Delcarmen, Ramirez and Okajima are set as is Wakefield. Unless you send down Bard or Buchhholz – both of which have no business in the minors.
Is Bosner on that list, too?
…of being set in the bullpen?
THAT'S the money you could be saving with Geico
Major League Deals
Bonser, Atchison, Ramirez Ramon A., Castro and Manuel all have major league deals and would have to clear waivers
Not really.
We’re at 24 with that final bullpen spot. I’m saying use said final spot on someone who’s a more definite #2 guy in the pen, rather than a mop-up man. We need someone who isn’t a ROOGY/LOOGY.
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Jan 16, 2010 9:34 AM EST up reply actions
I'm optimistic
I think the pen will be more effective this year for a number of reasons. The starting staff is better equipped to go deeper into games more consistently, lessening usage. Hopefully Bard will be better adjusted to the majors and Delcarmen’s shoulder will hold up the entire season (aside, I read somewhere that Calero has shoulder issues of his own that are making teams cautious). Bonser was also one of about a half dozen pitchers brought in to provide depth if needed, mostly from Pawtucket.
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Calero does have injury issues.
But the Sox have spent some $40 million on free agency this offseason. They’re building a team based around run prevention and pitching. If we spend 6 innings giving up 1 run and scoring 3, I’d rather be going into the 7th inning without having to worry about right-left matchups every single batter. Calero would likely make a huge difference in shoring up the pen.
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Jan 16, 2010 11:35 AM EST up reply actions
Eh, bullpens usually figure them selves out.
I’m sure in AA or AAA you have a mediocre starter who throws 92-93 with only one good secondary pitch. Sooner or later he’ll get switched to the pen, see the velocity bump up to 95-96 and Viola! insta-bullpen arm.
Strikeouts are boring- Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.
I know we can fill the holes with average guys.
I just think that we have too many average guys. Nobody who really strikes me as a legitimate setup man you can throw out there for an inning without much worry.
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Jan 16, 2010 11:39 AM EST up reply actions
Oki and Bard are our 8th inning men
Oki’s been effective against righties and lefties alike. Bard has been effective in the minors against lefties as well as righties so he’ll likely find himself as he matures as a major league pitcher.
Ramirez #1 and MDC were a bit troubling last year, though. Perhaps they’re expecting improvement there and that someone will emerge out of the new group (Boof, Ramirez #2, et al) to be effective from both sides. Otherwise, we’ll be having a lot of pitching changes in the 7th and 8th innings this year.
Oki got killed by RHB last year (.901 OPS against) and, quite frankly, projects the worst of all of our pen arms.
He’s getting older and relies on an odd delivery which hitters will start to figure out.
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Jan 16, 2010 11:41 AM EST up reply actions
One-year relief stats are more subject to wild swings
due to their low number of innings pitched. Looking at Oki’s 3-year stats (192 IP), his OPS against LHs is .547 and his OPS against RHs is .675. I do agree that the trend is toward the worse, but I don’t believe he’s lost his effectiveness even against RHs just yet. I’d give him more time. If he’s still got a .900 OPS against RHs at the break, then I’d agree you’re probably right. I don’t think that will happen though.
Rec'd
Same thought was going through my head. They lost Saito and Wagner and we are counting on MDC having a bounce-back year. It was baffling to me why the Sox wouldn’t at least test the waters for bullpen arms. DJ Carrasco and his rubber arm was a viable option and he signed for peanuts.
It'll figure itself out
MDC, Okajima, and Ramirez are all solid arms. I don’t put much stock into their troubles. Oki will regress but there’s enough arms to get the high-leverage innings. Bard’s got the stuff to be a relief ace if things go right. And there’s a plethora of back of the bullpen types signed recently just waiting to see who can do well.
It’d have been nice to land Calero, but I can see why not. He’s old as hell and that was a career year which still included a 4.5 BB/9. Guys with high K and BB rates aren’t hard to find. Hell they already got Richardson in Pawtucket waiting for an opportunity.
Also a name to be reminded of: Fernando Cabrera. Boasts a pretty nice 70.5% contact rate in the majors and quietly had a decent 2009 in AAA.
bullpens are crapshoots. The Rays bullpen fell off a cliff from 2008 to 2009 for no reason. All Theo can really do is hope these guys (who have all shown that they can be dominant in the majors) put it together for an entire season.
"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw
The Rays decline was not unexpected.
They had about 3 guys who had career years in the pen. They were due for massive regression to the mean. Bringing in scrubs like Brian Shouse didn’t help either.
"It's just a tiny little nick, but it hurts when I get champagne in there."
- Jason Bay, on getting spiked scoring the winning run in ALDS Game Four.
by 0157H7 on Jan 16, 2010 6:34 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
for no reason?
that bullpen was a complete FLUKE in 2008, and those guys will never duplicate that.
Trade Beckett !!!
It'll figure itself out, usually
bullpens are strange and unpredictable. you never know what you’ll get, etc.
bullpenners remind me of field goal kickers – no matter how good your kicker is, he will screw up when you least expect it and the inversa vises is true – the worst kicker in the league will call his shots off scoreboards and the like when playing against your team.
the one exception – Adam Vinatieri. only broke my heart once – when he left.
does everyone here hate the colts?
i’d go with the bullpen i was dealt and see what happens in february. you never know – we picked up b. lyons off waivers a couple years back and he ended up being our closer for about a month. no sense in trading potential good meat for a you never know.
wake came out of the pen a while back – he may have been the closer for a while. the guy is amazing but that doesn’t mean i’m comfortable with that.
another note about trading for a bullpenner – gagmee. (one of the 2 unbelievably bad trades by theo)
need i type anymore?
Yes, Wakefield was a closer for a short time
Racked up 15 saves before Lowe took over. But watching Wakefield close was akin to reliving the 13th inning of ALCS Game 5 as if it were Groundhog Day.
really I love the idea
of having someone like Beckett or Lester pitching or even (more likely) Matsuzaka, and then having Wake come in with his slow knuckleball partway through and confuse the $%&# out of the other team’s hitters.
really I love the idea
as long as it doesn’t hang.
a hanging knucklehead is like hitting a hard softball.
also, catching a 3rd strike could be a bigger problem with runners on base.
in a bullpen role, a pitcher doesn’t get away with as much as someone starting.
And then, just for giggles, throw Bard out there.
Particularly in game 1 of a series—it would so screw with the batters’ timing that the rest of the series would be all the more entertaining.
that's a good strategy.
that move will create havoc.
keeping hitters off balance is the art of pitching.
the only real problem with Wake in the bullpen
is that Wake pitches slightly better when his arm is a little bit tired. He does a pretty hard warmup before his starts. That’s hard to do in the pen. If you know your starter is on a pitch count and you can depend on them reaching it, then you can time Wake’s warmup. Otherwise, it is hard to get him ready in time from the pen.
In the end, given the usual injury events that happen in a year, I think Wake will end up getting about 10-15 spot starts which may be about all the innings we want from him for the year – we may not actually see him from the bullpen that much.
Im not sure that's so true anymore
I think with his age now he just takes a long time to get loose. He also definitely can’t pitch back to back days.
One solution is to piggy back him on Dice K’s starts in between spot starts. Or perhaps keep him open as a piggy back for Buchholz or Dice K, dictated by game situation. In either case, he’s a long reliever/spot starter and last guy out of the pen. Its going to be a very unglamorous role for Wake, which will be somewhat sad to see.
Of course, someone could get hurt in March and all this goes out the window. Perhaps if everyone is healthy they leave him behind in extended spring training, and then bring him back in May, since we’ll likely have lots of off days in April.
i'm pretty confident that he'll get starts as I said.
what are the odds that all 5 of the main rotation all make 32+ starts?
Even if they each made 30 starts, that still leaves 12 games that someone has to pitch.
I’m not wishing for any injuries – I’d rather everyone stayed healthy and nobody missed a start, but simple reality is that’s not going to happen.
Even without injuries, usually one or two starters gets a ‘dead arm’ at some point and simply needs a rest.
I can easily see Wake getting 10-15 starts.
Presumably
Wake will have a very short leash in the pen. So no blowups.
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Jan 17, 2010 1:39 AM EST up reply actions
Boston Bullpen
The answer is very simple, assuming the starters are Lester/Beckett/Lackey/Dice K/Bucholtz, and they pitch well. Wakefield should be the long reliever, and inning chewer-upper. The games that are lost unless you get lucky should see Wakefield pitching. Taking one for the team and as often as necessary. He’ll get a win here or there when the team rallies to win. In fact I would look for another pitcher with starter ability and drop a short reliever. They just don’t cut the mustard late in the season as innings pile up. Everytime you use three pitchers after a starter you are asking for it. Better to have one guy who can pitch 2 or 3 innings than asking most of these guys to pitch 50-60 innings a year.
Boston Bullpen
One other thing. I know it will never happen the way pitchers are babied today, but a smart manager would find a way to use his starting staff in relief. They have to throw between starts. Surely a starter could get his throwing in during the 6-8 inning of a game and be available to pitch an inning in that game if necessary. I don’t know when the practice stopped. Probably when closers came along because the starters usually pitched the 9th or 8th and 9th when they were called in relief. The only other thing against it is agents would want more money for another 5 innings a year.
How to fix the bullpen? Easy
You promote Derrick Loop from AA and anytime you need a critical out, you let him in, walk the batter and then pick him off at 1st base with that nasty pick off move.
Case closed :)
"That was a lot of fun… You just keep pounding balls into the gap. The one thing you don’t want to do is hit a home run. That’s a rally-killer." Jeff Francoeur
Sadly I believe Derrick Loop signed with the Padres this offseason
So you’ll have to come up with a new plan.
DFA Beckett
by South Coast Ghost on Jan 17, 2010 9:34 PM EST up reply actions
Platoon the Pen
Platoon Wake, Bucholz and Dice K, and just rotate them in and out of the Pen. Two weeks starters, 1 week in the Barrel. Keeps them warm and rested, allowing Wake to ease back into starting, Bucholz to continue gain experience without stretching him too much, and well just let Dice-K get his head together. When management sees who is most effective where, then Tito can decide if he wants to continue or consign one to the Pen.
I can see the Sox having to forgo a big bat at the trade deadline in order to pick up a new closer…. As much as I like Paplebon I think he is getting shakier by the inning out there, not only does he need to get his second pitch under control, a third looks to be in order ( a slider? ala Rivera).
Mo doesn't have a slider
just a cutter. Just the one pitch. The one very, very nasty pitch.
Papelbon is still, hands down, one of the best closers in the game. In his off year he was completely dominant. If you notice, his enormous jump in walk rates was mainly towards the beginning of the year when he was trying to figure out how to pitch with a mechanical change that would allow him to pitch more innings in the season without exhaustion by the end. You’ll notice it worked- he walked no one in september and in the second half of the year, had more K’s in significantly less innings. I don’t think a new closer is going to be a primary concern.
This is a good way
To seriously throw your starters off rhythm. Do you want to end up at the bottom of the division?
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 17, 2010 1:16 PM EST up reply actions
Sox Bullpen
The Sox bullpen should be significantly better, simply because Daniel Bard is a year older. He had nasty stuff in his rookie year, look for him to be even for comfortable during year two. Also, expect Bonser, Michael Bowden, or others to join the backend of the pen.
I dont understand why people would be worried about our pen
We had perhaps the best pen Ive ever seen last year.
We lost Saito (who had superficially good numbers because we never used him outside of mop up/middle relief duty past June), and Wagner (who probably can’t stay healthy for a full season anyway).
Is our pen a sure thing to be great? No, no pen ever is. I think 29 other teams would be delighted to head into ’10 with this pen. Its a real strength for us. We go deep with quality arms and we have a bunch of talent hanging around we can sort through and figure out who is pitching well this year.
We should really not be concerned about the pen much. Between our killer rotation going deep into games (other than Dice K presumably) and Papelbon-Okajima-Bard at the back end we look great.
I mean, jesus, if we should be worried about our pen, pretty much every other GM in baseball should be c***ing their pants. Can anyone even name a team that looks like it has a comparably good (never mind better!) pen situation going into 09 than us???
ZiPS has us projected to have 5 relievers with an ERA+ of 111 or higher! That’s ridiculous. This is seriously much ado about nothing.
Haha....ROOGY....
As if LOOGY didn’t sound weird enough….
"Hating the New York Yankees is as American as apple pie, unwed mothers and cheating on your income tax." -- Mike Royko
by sox-inda-south on Jan 17, 2010 11:25 PM EST reply actions
Two Words...
Trade Deadline. Rather then picking up question marks now, they can get guys they know are performing during the season and get what is more of a sure thing (GAGne being the exception to the rule).
1 question mark.
Paps, Bard, Okajima and RamRam aren’t exactly question marks. MDC will hopefully overcome his arm issues. With Wake and the front five, that’s 11 pitchers, leaving one spot open.
Ideally we’d have another lefty, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see Bowden coming out of the ‘pen, as he doesn’t have much left to prove in AAA and he’s not exactly going to crack our rotation.
Manny ain't the only bad man.
Bowden still has work he could be doing in AAA
He did well there in 2009, but wasn’t all out dominating like Buchholz was in AAA last year. Plus he just turned 23- too early to give up on him as a starter IMO.
Interestingly, Bowden was doing better than Clay for the first few months.
He ended up having a disastrous June, though. So bad that I wonder if there was something going on injury-wise or personally. Maybe because of all the trade talks?
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Jan 19, 2010 10:52 AM EST up reply actions
I think Id rather have Bowden starting regularly in AAA
That way we’re protected against injury. Same for Tazawa.
We dont need to worry about sorting out another lefty in April or May… just keep as many quality arms as possible when you break camp. Sort it out later.
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