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One of the hardest parts of fandom: overcoming nostalgia

The other day I was in a bar in Rhode Island talking to a few people.  This was the day the Beltre press conference happened, so of course the Red Sox came up in our conversation, as replays of the press conference were playing all over the TV's in the bar.  

I first mentioned to these guys (who were huge, old time Red Sox fans) that I was excited to see Beltre playing for the Sox (he's been one of my favorite players for a while, and I really do believe he can put up huge numbers in Boston), and expecting some kind of excitement in return, what I found instead was one of them getting a sheepish half-smile on his face and saying "Yeah, but it's really gonna be too bad to see Lowell go.  He's been such a great player."  And then the other joined in and pointed out "Yeah, plus Beltre only hit 8 home runs last year.  He's not that great.  It's also gonna be hard to watch the Red Sox without Bay playing for them."

Now my first thought was that these guys had been Red Sox fans longer than I've been alive, they should by now be well familiar with lineup changes and you would think grow immune over time to losing players.  But then the more I thought about it, the more I thought that there are really two types of fans of baseball.  I'll look at them after the jump

Star-divide

The first, and most obvious ones are the team fans.  These people (though this is a generalization) tend to end up supporting what the front office does no matter what if the team is doing well or questioning it the most if the team is doing poorly.  Either way, these are the fans that really love the team as whatever entity it may be and see the players as tools used by the team to achieve the goals they want.  They tend to get more attached to personnel than they do to players- who get moe caught up in the decisions Theo is making than they are in how many homers Papi had this week.

The second type, which is really probably more common, is the type of people I was talking to the other day.  These are the real fans of the particular players.  These are the people that have seen Lowell absolutely crush the ball in the 2007 World Series and who have seen that Bay hit a ton of home runs in 2009, regardless of his other stats, and as a result are very attached to the players.  These are the most common fans for a couple of reasons.  

When you're watching the players day after day, it's very easy to become used to them, and it's very easy to value them for what they have done in the past instead of what they will do in the future.  Going back to the Lowell example, he had a huge career year in 2007- it was one of the best fielding years of his life and hands down his best year at the plate.  After that season, fans were clamoring for him to be extended for a long time because they thought that would mean 3 more years of that same production.  As an absolute outlier year for Lowell, that was completely unreasonable to expect and although he produced well until he got injured, Lowell became a liability in 2009 because he got injured and could not perform to the level a starting player on the Red Sox needs to perform at.

 

Despite this, the fans of players look at what he did in 2007 and say "we wouldn't have gotten a championship in 2007 if it wasn't for Lowell, we owe him the rest of his contract" and while, in a contractual sense, they are right, we need to pay him for the rest of his contract, it doesn't mean that the Sox are required to field a gimpy 3rd baseman until his contract is over.  The contract means that the Sox have to pay him as long as they promised and that he has to play for them as long as he promised, but if they no longer want him to play, they have no responsibility to play him.  Similarly, if he wanted to play for the team but didn't want them to pay him anymore, they wouldn't have to pay him.  The fact is that he will probably never return to his 2007 glory, and this is very hard to expect for some fans.

 

It may be partly that the career life of an athlete is far shorter than that of a fan.  An athlete may burst onto the major leagues scene with huge potential at age 25 and then, at age 30, people are starting to talk about how he is starting to get too old to give a huge contract to.  This could seem odd to the casual observer who has been watching the team for over 20 years and thinks that the player is still a new acquisition.

I really think that the hardest part of becoming a fan of a team is overcoming loyalties to one particular player and putting your loyalties into the team.  It is difficult to realize that no matter how good a player is, they can't keep it up forever, and to think about what the team can do in the future instead of just keeping the players they have had in the past.  Years like this with massive turnover are particularly hard to bear for some fans, but in the end, the 2010 team should be a much more solid team than the 2009 one was.

 

Jason Bay and Mike Lowell, the Red Sox will forever appreciate what you have contributed to them and what a huge part of the team you have been on and off the field, but their job is to win championships, and at this point, there are other players out there who will just make that goal more achievable.  Red Sox fans all over the place will still be rooting for you and wishing you hadn't left, whether it was the best choice or not.

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I guess I'm a little bit of both

I try to refrain from questioning most moves made my the front office, but at the same time I still yearn to see Pedro and Nomar play for the Sox again…even if they would get eaten alive at this stage of their careers.

by Logan Lietz on Jan 14, 2010 9:10 AM EST reply actions  

well yeah

It was kind of exaggeration. I think everyone is a bit of both. Just different levels of the two.

by wolf9309 on Jan 14, 2010 9:15 AM EST up reply actions  

mark bellhorn

just kidding

but he was the first sox 2nd basemen to hit 3 hrs in consecutive post season games – 2004 alcs games 6 & 7 and game 1 ws.

he broke mussina’s perfect game up in alcs

big time contributions.

so what if he k’d once in a while.

my real choice: kevin millar.

by Mick Lowe on Jan 14, 2010 12:28 PM EST up reply actions  

I think there's a difference between liking a player like Lowell and thinking he can still do the job

I’ll always like Mike Lowell. He was a class act. But most rational fans should be able to see that he can no longer play 3B at a high level. It is a shame to see Lowell’s tenure in Boston end this way. But the Sox needed to upgrade the position. While it’s OK for fans to be sentimental or nostalgic, I’m glad the FO isn’t.

I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.

by Drugs Delaney on Jan 14, 2010 9:28 AM EST reply actions  

actually

the fans really cant afford it anymore. The reason there is less sentiment (thats wrong huh) is because both the players and owners treat it as a business, which is fine. But you cant expect a team to keep you on the decline and give you a pay raise, thats not good business. And you cant expect fans to cry about you leaving for that pay raise when we pay 40 dollars for bleacher seats.

I would love to see a player stick around, take a pay cut if they are not as good, to finish with their team. And I wouldnt mind a team keeping an aging player in a limited role so he could do that. It pretty much reminds me of Varitek. Varitek deserves to finish his career as a Red Sox player. But without the Sox having to overpay or guarantee him a starting spot on the team. Which actually is happening but that is a very very rare situation.

Look at what happened with Smoltz last year with the Braves. He could have taken lesser money to stay with the Braves and the Braves could have showed that they wanted him to finish with the team. If he felt disrespected then they could have made it a incentive laden deal. What happened last year sucks!!!! But that is the way it goes, just like the tickets will go up for the fans.

by Jason A on Jan 14, 2010 5:23 PM EST up reply actions  

We're saying the same thing

Management can’t afford to give out contracts based on nostalgia and reminiscences of past glories. I just meant that nostalgia is something fans can indulge in (“Oh, I wish so and so were still here”), but management can’t do that.

by lone1c on Jan 14, 2010 6:01 PM EST up reply actions  

When the guy at the bar

mentioned Beltre’s 8 HRs did you respond that that was in 111 games with an obscenely unlucky 5.6 percent HR/FB ratio (verses his career 13 percent)? On second thought, maybe that would not have meade too good a conversation starter ;).

When thinking about Lowell and Beltre, I do try to be objective. You are correct that Lowell’s 07 was an outlier offensive year, but he was actually better defensively in 08, where his UZR/150 was Beltre-level. He had the 4th best AL WAR of all 3bs in only 113 games-a rather remarkable feat. For a whole season (which of course he didn’t play) only Longoria and ARod were better. However, the injury means we have to move on, and of course I would rather have Beltre at this point, but I do appreciate that injuries are not always predictable and that is the way things go. And I am excited for Beltre. Unlike some here, I don’t think the Monster is going to turn him into a big offensive threat, but if he simply gets his HR/FB ratio back up to 13 percent…he will be fine on offense and a beast with the glove.

by Buzzy on Jan 14, 2010 9:34 AM EST reply actions  

I thought about mentioning something like that

but decided that it wasn’t the right situation to try to introduce those guys into more advanced stats…
for the record, I don’t think that decrease in power was necessarily unlucky, I think it waas more of a result of the fact that, according to him, until he got the surgery, it felt like his shoulder was being stabbed when he lifted up his arms. That’ll sap anyone’s power.

by wolf9309 on Jan 14, 2010 9:42 AM EST up reply actions  

One of the great troubles of being a stat geek

Is getting your point across by using arguments that any baseball fan can understand. So I’ve been making the case for Beltre by using 1). the universal praise for his glove around the league from lifelong baseball men, 2). road stats, and 3). the tried-and-true “righty at Fenway” routine. It can still be surprisingly effective, even without UZR and WAR and everything else.

Building Fenway from the ground up - Virtual Fenway

by Sean O on Jan 14, 2010 10:56 AM EST up reply actions  

Agreed

However, I agree with Buzzy about Beltre and Fenway. I think Beltre’s biggest value will be his glove and road hitting. Nothing I’ve seen about Beltre’s hitting makes me think he’ll get a huge Fenway offensive bump. His home numbers should be better this year because of the lack of foul territory at Fenway. Other than that, I don’t think he’ll be a huge offensive threat just because of the move to Boston.

I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.

by Drugs Delaney on Jan 14, 2010 11:16 AM EST up reply actions  

I don't think he'll be a monstrous offensive threat like in 2004

but I expect his numbers for the year to be more like his road numbers the last couple of years just because he’ll be in fenway instead of safeco. It’s just as much about not being in safeco as it is about being in fenway. I expect Lowell-like numbers with a little more power offensively.

by wolf9309 on Jan 14, 2010 11:56 AM EST up reply actions  

It depends

If Beltre is a dead pull hitter—and I don’t think he is—you’d expect Fenway to have a big effect on his numbers. It shouldn’t help him much if he hits to all fields, except for the lack of foul territory. RF and right-center are pretty big. Also, a lot depends on how comfortable Beltre is hitting in Fenway and how well he sees the ball there. In a small sample, he hasn’t hit well there over his career. The one thing that we do know is Beltre has hit better than Lowell on the road. There’s no reason why that wouldn’t continue. We’ll see.

I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.

by Drugs Delaney on Jan 14, 2010 12:40 PM EST up reply actions  

yeah though safeco is larger in all dimensions

but you’re right, he hits for power all over the field, which is probably why his generarl road numbers are pretty good. Fenway won’t make him a beast, but I do expect the monster to make some outs into doubles.

by wolf9309 on Jan 14, 2010 12:56 PM EST up reply actions  

if beltre is a dead pull hitter

i think i read somewhere on mlbtr hot stove, that belter had been a pull hitter in his dodger days. he started spraying when he moved to safeco.

back in 2004, the la roiders, as is still the case, had a shorter left field.

er, i mean dodgers.

by Mick Lowe on Jan 14, 2010 3:14 PM EST up reply actions  

A nickname is born

Building Fenway from the ground up - Virtual Fenway

by Sean O on Jan 14, 2010 3:31 PM EST up reply actions  

"Dead Pull"?

Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.

I have a five-tool player in my pants.

by Bloggy on Jan 14, 2010 3:47 PM EST up reply actions  

Belter

Building Fenway from the ground up - Virtual Fenway

by Sean O on Jan 14, 2010 3:56 PM EST up reply actions  

Ha ha ha...totally missed that.

Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.

I have a five-tool player in my pants.

by Bloggy on Jan 14, 2010 4:01 PM EST up reply actions  

Even better when you precede it with "that there".

“Uh, whuddaya think o’ that there….Belter?”

Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.

I have a five-tool player in my pants.

by Bloggy on Jan 14, 2010 4:01 PM EST up reply actions  

Check the mlb.com hit chart

http://boston.redsox.mlb.com/stats/individual_player_hitting_chart.jsp?c_id=bos&playerID=134181&statType=1

I think it’s encouraging. He seems to pull a decent number of hits, especially those for power.

Building Fenway from the ground up - Virtual Fenway

by Sean O on Jan 14, 2010 1:10 PM EST up reply actions  

Interesting

His fly outs are more of a spray, with a slight tendency for opposite field.

His singles, doubles & HRs definitely show a distinct tendency to pull.

I.E. he has more success when he pulls the ball.

by mmmmm on Jan 14, 2010 2:24 PM EST up reply actions  

Interesting and Check the mlb.com hit chart

in 2004 @ dodger stadium, arguably his best season, beltre put hr’s everywhere, as well as everything else. he hit a lot of doubles deep (385 ft) to rt center. kind like manny did, once upon a time.

majority of pop ups are to right, ground outs to the left side.

i like it

by Mick Lowe on Jan 14, 2010 3:25 PM EST up reply actions  

Definitely encouraging

Safeco’s Left field ranges from 330 to 390 ft. away while Fenway’s is 310-379. It looks like a lot of those left field fly outs and doubles could become doubles and homers.

by Schulz on Jan 14, 2010 4:28 PM EST up reply actions  

and it's not really 310 to left at fenway anyways

I remember from taking a couple of tours of the Park that the actual distance down the line to Fisk’s pole is in fact less than 300 feet.

by payroll on Jan 16, 2010 12:44 PM EST up reply actions  

310 is actually supposed to be right.

The Globe snuck in and measured independently.

USG

by Ben Buchanan on Jan 17, 2010 8:54 PM EST up reply actions  

i have been there

when the Sox got rid of Nomar. I am and was a huge Nomar fan!!! I loved how he played the game, and when he was at his best I didnt think there was anybody else better. But in 04 it was obvious he had to go and ironically that would be the best thing for the team.

I saw the writing on the wall the year they won the division but lost in the first round against the Indians. That team (i think it was the 1st year without M. Vaughn) had no reason to be in the playoffs and didnt have a chance in hell against that Indians team. The last game of the sweep Nomar came out and was clapping to the fans, as in respect for the season they had even though it was over. The fans didnt care because they got swept, that was when I knew Nomar wasnt going to finish his career in Boston. They were just on 2 different wavelengths.
Nomar wanted appreciation from the fans for him and his teamates for how hard they played all year and the fans wanted a World Series.

by Jason A on Jan 14, 2010 11:30 AM EST reply actions  

Nostalgia

ain’t what it used to be.

by Mister Snitch on Jan 14, 2010 12:36 PM EST reply actions  

Hypos

Some of those same Sox fans who still long for Nomar, Mo Vaughn and whose hearts yearn for the Bay/Lowell/Varitek to keep getting starts for the Sox are also some of the fans who moan and complain when the Sox can’t compete due to carrying past-their-prime players…..Hypocrites

by BobZupcic on Jan 14, 2010 12:49 PM EST reply actions  

Hers's the Thing

I have neve never been a great Lowell fan in particular, I have always been a Sox fan. In Lowell’s case however I think the Sox should have been treading very lightly. Aside from the fact that I feel Lowell still will come back from his hip and thumb injuries, surgeons are able to perform near miracles these days and we were told he needed a full year for him to return to full playing form, there is still one fact that makes me extremely uncomfortable about this Lowell bashing…. Lowell took a Red Sox offer that was less than his true market value just to play in Boston. While I understand the FO and author’s reasoning, I think it is very shortsighted from a club that is essentially looking at the long term in many ways. What is most important here is how this will be viewed by the players in the Red Sox clubhouse. Will they be willing, now that Lowell’s example is being repeated daily in blogs and in the news, that club friendly deal that others did following Lowell? We have several important signings coming up, I wonder how they will go now?

by NJ Native on Jan 14, 2010 1:30 PM EST reply actions  

Can we stop with this lower-value contract stuff?

he wasn’t any good and got more money than any team should’ve given him. Maybe he should’ve been in acceptable shape, knowing that he falls apart in every 2nd half of his career (except for the contract year, conveniently).

Building Fenway from the ground up - Virtual Fenway

by Sean O on Jan 14, 2010 1:53 PM EST up reply actions  

Not really true

in 08 (despite the relative 2nd half swoon) he was a 3.2 WAR player in 110 games. Over a 150 game season that is roughly 4.3 WAR. That would be better than Beltre was in all but one season on the Mariners, and even in that season (06) he was only marginally better. Only ARod and Longoria were better in 08 at 3b in the AL on a per game basis. Now maybe you can say that you should not give 33 year olds 12 million a year, but Lowell never had a single year until 08 marred by injury that cut into his playing time. He put up WARs of 3.4, 5.3 and a scaled 4.3 from 06-08. That is a pretty damn good player. So, you can say “he wasn’t any good” but actually he was a good player that simply got hurt and is no longer useful.

by Buzzy on Jan 14, 2010 2:49 PM EST up reply actions  

BTW

Youkilis has only had one year on the Sox were he was nearly as good (or better) in the 2nd half compared to the first half, and that was 08. Even last year his OPS dropped 65 points in the second half. It would be nice if players are rock solid consistent, but a win is a win.

by Buzzy on Jan 14, 2010 2:53 PM EST up reply actions  

you do have a point about other players taking team friendly contracts

but really, the reason players take those team friendly contracts with the Red Sox is that they want a good chance to get in the playoffs and play for a ring for a large, overenthusiastic market. I think there is no place quite as frightening to play as a visiting team as Fenway is and there is no place quite so welcoming for the home team as Fenway. Partly because the fans are very loud, partly because there’s a lot crammed in that tiny little park every night. So lets be honest, the players aren’t doing the Front Office a huge favor when they sign team friendly contracts, what happens is the Sox offer them what they say they are willing to, and we all know the Sox are willing to let players walk if they won’t agree to the numbers they come up with- sometimes this results in players taking less money for the opportunity to call Fenway home and to get a championship.

The other fact is that while the Red Sox do think of the long term, they also need to keep the short term in mind. They weren’t going to defensively upgrade every position except third base and leave Lowell, who has yet to prove that he is still capable of fielding there in the position. It would just be completely counter to the philosophy of this offseason. Players are well aware that this is a franchise built to win, and that’s why they sign with the Sox. Keeping on players past their usefullness to the team would undermine that.

by wolf9309 on Jan 14, 2010 4:28 PM EST up reply actions  

Juice

Anyone else wonder if Beltre was on it in 04?
And for that matter…how about Lowell?

by wdogg72 on Jan 14, 2010 7:47 PM EST reply actions  

No and No

The three reasons his power numbers dropped so largely from 04-05 IMO:
1) He was very lucky in 04.
2) New League with new pitchers.
3) New Park that was an awful fit for him.

Lowell had testicular cancer. Im pretty sure he wouldnt risk his life and take steroids. In fact he had to stop taking a testosterone treatment for testicular cancer survivors b/c of MLB’s new steroids policy.

Also, tossing around steroid accusations isnt helpful or productive in my experience.

by alskor on Jan 14, 2010 8:32 PM EST up reply actions  

accusations

i am not tossing them…..i am asking for opinion.

thanks for yours…. you call 48 homers lucky?

anyone else???

i know sensitive subject…but what do you guys think. shoot me down.

by wdogg72 on Jan 14, 2010 9:49 PM EST up reply actions  

'agree with alskor

I doubt Beltre did steroids.

If you add up all his extra base hits (HRs + 3Bs + 2Bs) for that year, you find that it isn’t all that different, relative to his total hits, compared to other years. I.E. his ‘power ratio’ wasn’t all that different from the rest of his career. It was 40%. That’s not even his highest ratio for a season. He just managed to hit a few more long fouls in fair territory and a few more doubles went over the wall instead of off the wall. Overall, year-by-year, his power ratio is pretty constant. That’s not proof that he didn’t use PEDs, but when you really look closely, it doesn’t look likely.

by mmmmm on Jan 14, 2010 10:21 PM EST up reply actions  

I thought that at first

but after immediate analysis, I realized that if it was PEDs responsible, the mucles built up from that don’t disappear immediately, and he would have probably performed close to as well during the beginning of the 2005 season, tapering off severely at the end. What in fact happened was that he was terrible at the beginning and actually iproved at the end. So as odd as it seems, yes, I would say that year looks more like the result of a massive stroke of luck than PEDs to me.

by wolf9309 on Jan 15, 2010 1:15 AM EST up reply actions  

I am a rank and unapologetic nostalgic.

I drink beer and yell at the screen. And I attach the joy and the heartbreak with with the people that cause it, not the statistics attached to Player A and Player B.

It’s why I love Beckett and hate Lackey, to some extent. I just spent the past however many years wanting Lackey to lose. BAD. I can’t turn that off all of a sudden. I don’t want to.

That said, I’m not an idiot, either. I can look at things logically and realize that certain players have to go and so on and so forth.

But I have no problem with mild nostalgia contracts. I have no problem with the contract Lowell got. He got injured and hasn’t bounced back all that well and that’s too bad. But he was great for this team up to us getting our World Series in ’07. He took a “home town discount” and we did alright by him.

I’ll be okay if we float Ortiz a decent contract next year, too. I hope he produces well enough this year to warrant one.

Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.

I have a five-tool player in my pants.

by Bloggy on Jan 15, 2010 9:53 AM EST reply actions  

agree with you completely

I have no problem with the fact that Lowell got that contract- he got injured, and sometimes that happens. I just personally disagree with those that think he should still be playing third base for us and shouldn’t be traded because of what he did in 07

by wolf9309 on Jan 15, 2010 11:58 AM EST up reply actions  

Indeed.

And if he can get a full-time gig somewhere, good for him. Class act who deserves good things.

Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.

I have a five-tool player in my pants.

by Bloggy on Jan 15, 2010 12:08 PM EST up reply actions  

It happens more to mid-30 somethings.

And so signing them, when they’re average to begin with, for big money over 3 years is a terrible decision. Any decline whatsoever, especially considering the total lack of upside, is disastrous as we’ve seen.

Building Fenway from the ground up - Virtual Fenway

by Sean O on Jan 15, 2010 1:02 PM EST up reply actions  

it's true, it was a risk

but every year with the Sox except 2009, he’s been worth at least that much- even despite missing time in 08, he produced a lot for the team. It’s not that massive a contract and 3 years wasn’t terrible considering the numbers he put up in 2007. I still don’t think the contract. He’s never been a game-changing slugger, but he’s never been paid like one and until the hip injury, was an excellent fielder.

by wolf9309 on Jan 15, 2010 1:06 PM EST up reply actions  

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