Beckett will not be brought back

(1) The development of potential impact players like Reddick, Westmoreland, and Kelly. Bringing in cost-controlled talent will make it easier to afford to pay out another big pitching contract.

(2) Is Beckett eager to take his chances elsewhere in exchange for a bigger pay day? I think Beckett really wants to get another ring more than he wants the extra million or two he could make somewhere else.

(3) Wakefield plans to retire at the end of his current two-year deal (which expires in 2011).

(4) If Theo can build a long-term rotation with four ace-caliber pitches (Lester, Beckett, Lackey, and Buchholz), why wouldn’t he at least want to try? I think that the Sox are more likely to want to keep Beckett than Dice-K, so I would expect to see Kelly replace Dice-K after 2011, not Beckett.

He’s always been overrated, from even before we got him. Beckett is too brittle and too inconsistent for a Lackey-type contract.

2008 saw Beckett again struggle, while 2009 was a relatively positive season overall.

Beckett was very unlucky in 2008. In fact, his 2007 and 2008 numbers were surprisingly similar:

2007 – 8.70 K/9 1.79 BB/9 3.08 FIP
2008 – 8.88 K/9 1.76 BB/9 3.24 FIP

Injuries limited Beckett’s IP in 2008. The major difference (besides IP), was that Beckett’s BABIP was lower in 2007 and his strand rate was higher.

While Beckett was good last year, his numbers were better in 2008:

2008 – 8.88 K/9 1.76 BB/9 3.24 FIP
2009 – 8.43 K/9 2.33 BB/9 3.63 FIP

His BB-rate and HR-rate went up from 2008 to 2009.

ERA and ERA+ are not good measures of how good a pitcher is. Here’s a comparison of Lackey and Beckett over the last three seasons based on K-rate, BB-rate, and FIP:

2007:
Lackey – (224 IP) 7.19 K/9 2.09 BB/9 3.54 FIP
Beckett – (200.2 IP) 8.70 K/9 1.79 BB/9 3.08 FIP

2008:
Lackey – (163.1 IP) 7.16 K/9 2.20 BB/9 4.53 FIP
Beckett – (174.1 IP) 8.88 K/9 1.76 BB/9 3.24 FIP

2009:
Lackey – (176.1 IP) 7.09 K/9 2.40 BB/9 3.73 FIP
Beckett – (212.1 IP) 8.43 K/9 2.33 BB/9 3.63 FIP

Beckett has been better than Lackey over the past three years. Beckett has thrown more innings than Lackey (587.1 IP v. 563.2 IP) and has a far better K-rate: 8.66 K/9 (Beckett) v. 7.15 K/9 (Lackey). Before anyone screams that Lackey was injured two of the past three seasons, it should be noted that Lackey’s K-rate of 7.15 K/9 is in-line with his career K-rate of 7.20 K/9. Lackey only has one year with a K-rate better than 8.50 (2005) and only one other season better than 7.50 (2006).

Beckett has always been a better strikeout pitcher. His 8.66 K/9 over the past three seasons is slightly better than his career K-rate of 8.54 K/9. Beckett’s BB-rates have also been better over the past three seasons. Beckett also has slightly better GB% than Lackey, although both pitchers are very similar in this respect.

Based on the above numbers, I think Beckett is the better pitcher. I also think his 1.50 K/9 advantage over Lackey makes him a better fit for the AL East and a small park like Fenway. As for durability, I think it’s a wash. The Sox clearly had questions about Lackey or they wouldn’t have put an injury clause in his contract. I’m not sure how the contract negotiations will go with Beckett. But, I’d rather see the Sox give Beckett Lackey-type money than give a pitcher like Lackey what he got.

It is too much money to commit two years in a row to starting pitching. Theo expects Buch to beome at least a solid pitcher and will continue to look for bargains to fill out the back-end of the rotation after this season.

I think four factors will determine whether Beckett is on the Sox in 2011. The first is the progression of Buchholz, and whether he developes into a solid #2 or 3. The second is the return of a healthy Dice-K and whether he can be a consistent #4 or 5. The third is the level of success Casey Kelly sees in the minors; if he is tearing up AA ball, then I think they see him as a future Buccholz/Lester/Beckett type. The fourth is the state of next years market. With the economy possibly still slow, and the quantity of top pitching talent on the market (assuming Lee or Webb or any of those guys don’t get extensions) Beckett may have to take a cheaper deal.

The 2011 Sox are currently committed to 81 Million to 9 roster players (Drew, Dice-K, Lackey, Youk, Lester, Pedroia, Cameron, Scutaro and Wake). That leaves about 70 million (I’m using a 150 milllion payroll) to disperse between 15 other slots including Arbitration. Does Beckett for 15+ million allow the Sox to adequately fill those slots? Then you’ve got decisions on Papelbon, Martinez, Beltre, etc. Gonna be interesting

good scribe. i like how you broke the beckett re-signing down.

it seems that there will be enough money @ $15m.

the $64,000 question is will $15m get it done?

next years salaries may be tighter than this years. who knows?

what kind of competition will beckett face as a freebie?

we may want to invest in a catcher more than a pitcher. (bye bye vmart & tek – that’s a lot of peso’s becoming available).

I could actually see Dice K traded at some point. They’re pretty fed up with him and his salary is very reasonable. The team loves Beckett and as Gammons has stated, Beckett and Pedroia are the two most admired players on the team. They are the two leaders, the real captains. All the pitchers look up to Beckett and how he handles himself. He’s exactly the kind of player the Red Sox always covet, on and off the field. Why would they let him go? I also think he prefers to stay in Boston, fwiw. I guess we’ll see.

Two myths:

1) We wont have the money to sign Beckett now that we signed Lackey – FALSE. We have a ton of money coming off the books next year. We can easily afford him, re-sign VMart and sign a top free agent and still have a lower salary in ’11 than in ’10. Lowell, Lugo and Ortiz are all coming off the books. If Ortiz returns (something far less likely than Beckett) it will be at a substantial discount.

Also, Dice K and Lester are paid extremely reasonable (as is Buchholz, obviously). So its not like we have so much money tied up in pitching that we cant or wont sign Beckett.

2) We wont need him if Buchholz steps up and Dice K returns to form – FALSE. Wake is pretty much done as a full season starter. He cant be counted on and the chances of him returning in ‘11 are 50/50 at best. That gives us a rotation of Lester-Beckett-Lackey-Buchholz-Dice K. Where’s the need to shed Beckett there…?

The three guys who really might be able to convince us we can get by without him are Kelly, Tazawa and Bowden. I doubt Bowden does it. He’s useful, but might end up better utilized in relief or as trade bait. Tazawa is basically the same thing, but a little better. Neither has anywhere near the upside of a Beckett – theyre mid rotation types at best. Kelly? He might, but it would take a lot of doing, since he’s only had one full pro season and hasnt pitched above A Ball. Unlikely they feel comfortable slotting him in the rotation for 2011, though not impossible.

Other concerns are: a) Guys get injured. Lets see which starters make it through the year w/out injuries that effect ’11. b) We may need to trade for a big bat this year, and Adrian Gonzalez and perhaps others are on our radar. If that happens, Kelly could be gone just like that. Who else is ready to step in that would make us pass on Beckett…?

I actually think the chance of him returning is something like 75%/25%. He’s been very happy here, so happy he negotiated an extension after like his first month here. Its been a very happy marriage. He’s probably not going to ask for anything ridiculous… the market was pretty much set for him with this Lackey deal. I have a hard time believing the Sox would offer Lackey that deal and not Beckett. I think it takes a litle more than that, but gets done.

Here is a stab at it

Current Commitments 2011 (in mil):
Lackey – 15.95
Drew – 14.00
Youk – 12.25
Dice-K 10.33
Cameron – 7.75
Lester – 5.75
Pedroia – 5.75
Scutaro – 5.5
Wake – 1.5
Tazawa – 1.15
Buyouts – 1.5 (Beltre, Hall)

This puts the Sox at 81.44 mil

- Say Beckett signs for a Lackey-like deal – 15.95, makes the commitment 97.39 mil
- Say Martinez is signed for say 13.5 mil, makes the commitment 110.89 mil
- Papelbon goes to arbitration yet again and garners 10 mil, commitment now 120.89 mil

That leaves about 30 – 40 million for Okajima, Ellsbury, Bucchholz, Ramirez , Delcarmen, Hermida, Bonser, Bard. Estimating this crew at about 15 mil leaves 15-25 mil for….

Free Agents to cover 3B, DH, Backup Catcher, Middle Infielder

Not much room for big signings at 3B, DH slots but Sox could get creative with bench slots (Wagner at Backup Catcher, etc.)

When we look back at Beckett health history in Boston, we can speculate that the Red Sox FO won’t resign him because they think of him as an injury risk:
I Remember 2008 when Beckett reported to have felt “numbness in his elbow” and there was a risk of an UCL injury

Josh Beckett is apparently frustrated with his injury woes and is going to visit with Dr. James Andrews. Andrews, who is known as the Grim Reaper among baseball fans, will take a look at why Beckett has lingering elbow pain.

He also missed the beginning of the 2008 season due to back spasm.
On the 17th of May 2007, he went on the 15 days DL.
This year too he missed 2 games in the end of the season due to elbow problems.
Some experts in pitching mechanics like Corey Dawkins think that he’s more of an injury risk than Lackey:

Lackey’s injury history don’t suggest a major injury is looming in my eyes at all. Lackey had had problems with his triceps where it attaches to the bone in the back of the elbow which at worst, suggests he may have bone spurs but that is a relatively quick and easy fix with no long term problems. He has not had problems in the inside part of his elbow near where the Tommy John Ligament is nor has he had any injuries to his biceps. He has suffered from a two bouts of shoulder stiffness that I’ve seen referenced to in the past but the last one was in 2007 in which he didn’t miss a start. Command is generally the first thing to go with elbow injuries and velocity is the first the usually go with shoulder injuries. Neither of the things occurred with lackey over the last couple of years where his command and his velocity have actually been improving over the last 3 years. So nothing I see in this profile makes me worried about a Tommy John or Labrum surgery candidate.
Beckett on the other hand does have issues which I worry about. He’s mainly got over his blister issues from before but now other things pop up. Last year he suffered from back spasms, neck spasms, general groin soreness and of course the neuritis while this year he stayed relatively healthy in terms of not missing time. The back spasms and neck spasms could be a protective mechanism from a herniated or bulging disc or at the very least the spasms could be the result of a severe muscular imbalance. The muscles of the core work to maintain stability at all costs and when they can’t they strain or go into spasms.
The ulnar neuritis though is what really worries me. Ulnar Neuritis is a relatively benign issue in isolation but combined with other factors I’m beginning to worry. From my experience, Ulnar neuritis in throwers is from instability of the elbow leading to a compressive force on the nerve while it’s being stretched. As I said, instability in the elbow usually leads to a loss of command which he exhibited over the end of last year and the beginning of this year. He had a stretch of about 6-7 starts where his command improved but then his command started to suffer again. His velocity decreased over the time of the year which is another concern.
So from where I stand Lackey is a much much safer bet to stay healthy than Beckett is and I don’t see anything that could cause Lackey to miss entire years in his injury profile

When the Sox presented Lackey in the press conference, Theo said that they think that Lackey shoulder problems are fixable and they have no worries about it although they made him sign a front loaded contract with a 2015 club option at Major League minimum salary if he misses significant time with surgery for pre-existing elbow injury in 2010-14.
I think that they have faith in the fact that their shoulder program could improve Lackey’s velocity an allow him to perform at a high level at least in the beginning of the contract an put 2 or 3 seasons of 5 WAR performance.

The Time: December 2010
The Place: A dimly-lit bunker deep beneath Fenway Park.

You are Theo Epstein, general manager of the Boston Red Sox. John Henry has given you a blank contract worth 18 million dollars a year for five years. There are three pitchers in front of you willing to sign that contract: Josh Beckett, Brandon Webb, and Cliff Lee. You can only choose one of them. Who do you choose?