Jonathan Papelbon Was The Red Sox's Best Reliever Of The Decade
I broke down the decade's best hitting performances on Monday, but now we turn our attention to the 'pen.
This was a little trickier. First, there had to be qualification standards. Relievers must have had at least 50 innings pitched with the Red Sox in that season. I figured 50 is a solid number, any less and we might have some skewed results.
Also, all relievers were eligible -- from long-relievers to setup men to closers. Even LOOGYs, if they can hit the 50 inning minimum.
The biggest thing to figure out was what stat I would use to rank seasons by. I decided on FIP, because it's one of the best stats to judge the actual performance of the pitcher. I debated ERA+, but that revolves around ERA too much. So just like using wOBA with the hitters, people might complain about FIP, but I'm going to use it anyway. So there.
Here's the top 10, in descending order.
10. Manny Delcarmen - 2008 (3.32 FIP)74.1 ip, 3.27 era, 1.17 whip, 2.57 so/bb
Maybe you're surprised to see Manny D on this list? Well get used to it because he fills two of the top 10 slots. His 2008 was pretty solid, though. He struck out almost one batter per inning and allowed only 6.7 hits per nine innings. As bad as 2009 was for Manny D, his 2008 was pretty solid and we need to remember that heading into 2010.
9. Byung-Hyun Kim - 2003 (3.26 FIP)
79.1 ip, 3.18 era, 1.10 whip, 3.83 so/bb
Yes, BHK makes this list. If you remember, he was pretty solid before his blow up in 2004. He saved 16 games in 2003 after the Red Sox acquired him from the Arizona Diamondbacks. He started five games for the Sox in this season, but I figured I'd count his season toward this list. At least for the time, he was a good pickup for Theo Epstein. It didn't last long, but he did provide at least some value.
8. Keith Foulke - 2004 (3.16 FIP)
83 ip, 2.17 era, 0.94 whip, 5.27 so/bb
After BHK came this guy. Foulke was the missing piece going into 2004. The Red Sox needed a closer and they got one in Foulke. Foulke really had a great season, striking out nearly one batter every inning and walking just 15 batters on the season. Foulke's 225 ERA+ in 2004 was the best of his career. Like Kim, though, his success really only lasted one season.
7. Jonathan Papelbon - 2009 (3.05 FIP)
68 ip, 1.85 era, 1.14 whip, 3.17 so/bb
Papelbon's name lands on this list for the first time at No. 7 -- and believe it or not, this is his worst full season with the Red Sox. Of course, compared to most players, it's a great season. But compared to what he did from 2006-2008, it's just not as good. Papelbon walked a career-high 24 batters this season.
6. Derek Lowe - 2000 (3.05 FIP)
91.1 ip, 2.56 era, 1.22 whip, 3.59 so/bb
The first, and only, appearance from Mr. D-Lowe from his stint when he was a reliever. Lowe was pretty good in 2000, despite being extremely overworked. He worked more than 91 innings, but appeared in just 74 games. He led the league in saves (42) and games finished, with 64. (And as bad as this was, in 1999 he worked 18 more innings in the same amount of games. Way to be, D-Lowe.)
5. Manny Delcarmen - 2006 (3.02 FIP)
53.1 ip, 5.06 era, 1.59 whip, 2.65 so/bb
This is where it just gets weird. Manny D's 3.02 FIP in 2006 was fantastic -- but all his other numbers were quite atrocious. What does this say about Manny? The defense really kind of screwed him. Have no fear, I have a post planned for the future breaking down all of Manny D's 2006 season. Why? Because it's too interesting to not take a deeper look.
4. Mike Timlin - 2005 (2.70 FIP)
80.1 ip, 2.24 era, 1.32 whip, 2.95 so/bb
An old friend makes an appearance at No. 4. Timlin's solid season is made even more impressive considering he made a league-high 81 appearances. He was worked to the bone, but he stayed consistent. Timlin would have only one more really good season (2007), but in 2006 and 2008 he just couldn't produce. He was great out of the bullpen while he lasted. I definitely miss the camouflage undershirts.
3. Jonathan Papelbon - 2007 (2.45 FIP)
2. Jonathan Papelbon - 2006 (2.14 FIP)
1. Jonathan Papelbon - 2008 (2.01 FIP)
2007: 58.1 ip, 1.85 era, 0.77 whip, 5.60 so/bb
2006: 68.1 ip, 0.92 era, 0.77 whip, 5.77 so/bb
2008: 69.1 ip, 2.34 era, 0.95 whip, 9.63 so/bb
I figured I'd just make this easy and clump the last three together. All Paps. All the time. There are few differences between all these seasons, and any one could really be at the top, but let's just come to the conclusion that Papelbon knows how to pitch. Over these three seasons, Papelbon pitched 196 innings, struck out 236, allowed 37 runs and walked just 36. All while saving 113 games. Even his 2009 wasn't bad, as evidence from No. 7. So yes, Papelbon's four full seasons are four of the top 10 relief performances of the decade. That is real.
He's kind of a big deal, huh?
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Yeah....
He’s kind of a big deal, huh?
Just ask him. ;)
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
I have a five-tool player in my pants.
He certainly knows his value
His 25-28 age seasons were better than Mo’s 25-28. Paps is on pace to be one of the best ever…
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by Randy Booth on Jan 12, 2010 11:57 AM EST up reply actions
Agreed.
But I wonder if he’s trending downwards, while Mo trended upwards.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
I have a five-tool player in my pants.
That's hard to assume
Considering how great he’s been already. Even if he kept the pace of his worst season — 2009 — for the rest of his career, he’d be better than Mo in the end.
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by Randy Booth on Jan 12, 2010 12:14 PM EST up reply actions
I'm not assuming it, Hot Clutch, I'm wondering it.
As Hix says below, it seems like batters might be getting a little more used to him. He sure as hell doesn’t suck, but keeping pace with his 2009 season for the rest of his career is a mighty big if, you have to admit.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
I have a five-tool player in my pants.
He didn't seem to be, uh, trying
With the whole “saving the arm” bit. I’m expecting 2010 to be mediocre, 2011 to be for the record books so he can impress the Yankees.
Building Fenway from the ground up - Virtual Fenway
the "saving the arm" thing was a mechanical change
not that he wasn’t trying to pitch as well. It took getting adjusted to, but notice going month by month, that by the end of the year, his peripherals were much improved than at the beginning of the year. I expect him to be dominant in 2010.
Papelbon need to readjust his approach
In 2008 he was the ideal reliever:
He wasn’t walking batters: 1.04 BB/9
He was striking more than a batter per inning: 10.00 K/9
He was generating a lot of groundballs: 49.02 % GB%
While maintaining his K numbers in 2009 (10.04 K/9), he tripled his free passes (3.18 BB/9) and batters are putting the ball more in the air (26.7 GB%) and his peripherals took a hit: xFIP of 3.98 and a tRA of 3.56: Basically, even in a down year where he melted before our eyes in game 3 of the ALDS, he’s been lucky all season long.
You may ask what happened? Actually, Papelbon made a career making hitters chase balls outside of the zone: They were swinging at 34.3% of the pitches outside of the strike zone in 2008 generating whiffs ad weak contact. Not this year where hitters look like they have adjusted and are swinging less (O-swing 26.2%) and being more selective (Swing% 50%).
He needs to mix more off speed pitches with his fastball if he wants to perform at a high level because batters aren’t “biting” anymore.
"That was a lot of fun… You just keep pounding balls into the gap. The one thing you don’t want to do is hit a home run. That’s a rally-killer." Jeff Francoeur
well, he already made one big adjustment
to his mechanical delivery last winter that was supposed to result in a more natural arm motion with less wear and tear.
The result was a bump up in velocity, but less control. Hence the walk number increase. Batters weren’t biting because he was missing his spots by too much. He still got Ks when he would miss over the plate, because of the velocity. But too often it was just obviously not going over the plate.
In large part he needs just get more and more used to his new motion and get control over it. That should eventually happen. Despite the post-season blow-up, I though he looked better as the season wore down. ’Need to go look at the numbers to confirm that impression, though.
your impression is correct
the walks went way down and the k’s went up as the season went on. Peripherals in general looked much better- seeptember Papelbon was just lights out.
Let's compare
Papelbon 2006-2008:
196 IP, 236 K’s, 36 BB, 37 runs 1.69 ERA, 323 ERA+
Pedro, 2000:
217 IP, 284 K’s, 32 BB, 42 runs, 1.74 ERA, 291 ERA+
Both spectacular, but Pedro remains on another planet.
Building Fenway from the ground up - Virtual Fenway
Of course
There’s no comparison between a reliever and a starter anyway. Pedro = best starter of the decade (as we’ll see in a post) and Papelbon = best reliever of the decade.
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That's the thing
It’s amazing how relatively similar they were in the end. It is simply beyond belief that Pedro did it for a full season.
Building Fenway from the ground up - Virtual Fenway
In a steroid era.
"That was a lot of fun… You just keep pounding balls into the gap. The one thing you don’t want to do is hit a home run. That’s a rally-killer." Jeff Francoeur
Pedro's 2000 is my pick for best season of all time.
He was just…wrong.
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Jan 12, 2010 5:21 PM EST up reply actions
against the AL East!
Some RIDICULOUS Stats from that 200 year
Lefties OPS – 0.406…yes that is OPS!, 0.190 OBP for lefties in 420 PA
Righties only fared a bit better – 0.544 OPS, 0.238 OBP
He was 12-1 on the ROAD with a 1.66 ERA, 5 CG and 3 Shutouts
In the month of August in 6 starts he struck out 51 batters and walked – 2! that was a 25.5 SO/BB ratio for a month
Basically he made the whole league look like Yuniesky Betancourt as hitters
A couple notes
I never would have expected Delcarmen at #5 with an ERA of 5.06.
There were a bunch of comparisons to Mo and Paps. Yes Paps was better then Mo during this time period. If Paps wants to be the next “Mo” he needs to learn how to pitch and not just throw.
Mo can spot a cutter on both edges with ease and get out everyone. If Paps can get back to his precision ways from years past he could be the next Mo. As of right now though he thinks his fastball can blow away everyone, while it can only get out most hitters.
Some nice Timlin love
He kind of left quietly… I liked him and his nice camo undershirts
Homer: Kids, you tried your best and you failed miserably. The lesson is, never try.
And his bow-hunting.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
I have a five-tool player in my pants.
I still can't beleive that Delcarmen made this list twice...
How about a “starter” only version of the list?
Either Wednesday or Thursday, most likely
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I think Surviving Grady put it best
Back in ‘06 or ’07, they compared bringing Papelbon into the game as the equivalent of using a chloroform rag on the Sox’ opponents.
Not quite that now, but still pretty dang dominant.

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