Good job, Clay Buchholz: You've got your spot

by Randy Booth on Sep 9, 2009 10:36 AM EDT in News

After ripping through spring training and dominating minor league competition, Clay Buchholz wanted to get back in the big leagues. He knew he was good enough and he showed that he was good enough with those blips of success. But it wasn't that easy. There was too much starting pitching depth at the time and nobody wanted to rush him back.

He's back now and he's not going anywhere.

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Outside of two starts, Buchholz dominated August. Those two games he did give up seven runs in each of them, but the Sox actually won those games. The theory has been put out there that maybe once Buchh gets big leads his focus is lost a tad. That could be it. But if he's going to do that, might as well be in the games the Sox are going to smash the ball anyway, right?

I'm convinced at this point that Buchholz has his spot in this rotation for good. The Sox have been waiting for Buchh to be ripe and just consistently pitch to his potential. As great as his no-hitter was two years ago, wouldn't we all take five solid starts versus one great one and four bad ones?

The icing was put on the cake last night when Buchholz went seven innings in the Sox's 10-0 win over the O's. Maybe he's out of that get-a-big-lead-and-blow-it funk as well, because he certainly could have given up a few runs with the Sox's offense pounding the ball. Then again, it was the Orioles last night...

In my opinion, Buchholz is just getting good now. He's hitting his stride and if this is just him warming up, he's going to be scary later in the season and at the beginning of 2010. It's time for his confidence to build up and really get comfortable. When that happens, watch out.

What do you think about Buchholz? Is this the guy we've all been waiting for, or is this just a blip? Are we going to see this guy for the rest of the season and into the future?

Poll

What do you think about Clay Buchholz and his recent success?

This is the Buchholz we've been waiting to see for so many years

347 votes

He's been good, but I don't think it'll last

32 votes

Trade him in the offseason, please

22 votes

My opinion can not be contained within a poll. I will post in the comments.

9 votes

410 votes | Poll has closed

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Comments

I was thinking about writing this last night, actually.

Then I realized it was 2 AM and I should probably wait for tomorrow. Now I have no need.

Clay is here for good, no doubt in my mind. His composure, which was so lacking last year, is here in spades this year. I haven’t seen him get rattled past the game against the Orioles—even against the White Sox it was so much more of a slow bleed. Perhaps most tellingly, though, is that he followed both those games up with strong performances, including his 8-inning domination of the Jays.

The Curveball and Changeup have always been plus. He’s always had the stuff. He seems to be able to use it. Add in the confidence and he’s a lock for our rotation for years to come in my opinion. I expect they give him 2010 to make sure he’s for real, and then try to lock him up long term.

It’s been a long time in coming, but I think we can (thank God) finally start moving past the love/hate trade/keep bust/beast drama we’ve been experiencing for the last 15 months.

by Ben Buchanan on Sep 9, 2009 12:02 PM EDT reply actions

Clay

then again…the Orioles were one of the 2 teams that tagged him for 7 runs too, so we can’t have a double standard here. Clay is certainly here to stay, and i would not be surprised if he is clearly above Dice-K and Wake in the rotation next year, assuming they play and pitch. His stuff is just too good. We say it last night, he was consistantly locating 4-seamers ranging from 93-96. He is of course still somewhat inconsistent. We can almost here the wheels turning when he throws over to 1st constantly (haven’t seen it too much lately perhaps because there haven’t been too many danger innings lately for him). He still has not had all of his pitches (FB, slider, change and curve) working at once. In fact I don’t recall a game where he had the touch for more than 2. That shows how scary good he can be. It was always claimed he could be better than Lester. While he may not reach that level, I would not be shocked if he did.

by Buzzy on Sep 9, 2009 12:58 PM EDT up reply actions

I still have some hope for Daisuke for next year..

If he gets into shape and get his WHIP down during spring training, he could put in the 2-3 slot in the starting rotation. If he has a bad spring training, or throws meatballs across the plate in 2-3 starts in April: trade him.

I still think he has shown his talent, and can be a primo pitcher, but he can’t do what he did this year and neglect his day job… for the World Classic

by superferret on Sep 9, 2009 2:40 PM EDT up reply actions

Luckily, that shouldn't be a problem for the remainder of Dice-K's tenure with the Sox.

The next WBC isn’t scheduled until 2013.

by lone1c on Sep 9, 2009 2:42 PM EDT up reply actions

2-3 Slot

You think he should start before Lester?? I would put him in the 3-4 slot depending on Wakefield.

by drabidea on Sep 9, 2009 3:33 PM EDT up reply actions

If Lester doesn't pitch well at the beginning of 2010..

Matsuzaka could be in the top of the rotation. However, Daisuke has to climb a big mountain to show he is worthy again even if he can be a starting pitcher in the AL East… It is not good that he is getting shelled in AA ball, but I think he can be like Lester, a strikeout king, if he concentrates on 3-4 pitches, and have some confidence, work on his pitch location, instead of just throwing the ball across the plate.

I would like to see Daisuke pitch later in September if the Sox clinch a playoff spot, to see if there is much to hope for in spring training…

by superferret on Sep 10, 2009 12:45 AM EDT up reply actions

He has indeed arrived

Barring a total meltdown, I think he’ll be a lock for the rotation at the beginning of 2010. Something to consider, though, is his workload for this year. Take a look at his innings pitched as he’s come up through the system:

2005: 127 IP
2006: 119 IP
2007: 148 IP
2008: 155.2 IP
2009: 163.2 IP so far + 3 more regular season starts (20 innings, just to pick a number)

Plus, there’s a pretty good chance the Sox will be in the playoffs. The way he’s been pitching, he’s the one you’d want in the #3 spot, unless Wake or Dice-K show otherwise. Depending on how far they go, that could be 1-4 more starts. Maybe 5-30 more innings. He could potentially be over 200 IP.

The Sox have been pretty cautious with his innings increases thus far. If they go on a deep playoff run, should they risk Mark Prior’ing him? To be fair and present a counter-example, Lester had a huge IP jump (+50) last year and seems fine this year.

by Fizrat on Sep 9, 2009 1:03 PM EDT reply actions

Case by Case

the Sox are smart enough to consider the innings increase (as with Lester) on a case by case basis, instead of a dumb set rule of thumb. It should be noted that Clay is already 25. By the dumb set rule of thumb is is old enough for an innings increase of more than 35 innings, whatever that means. Btw-Lester’s innings jump was more than 70 innings with regard to season+playoffs,

by Buzzy on Sep 9, 2009 1:31 PM EDT up reply actions

Of course, given the number of baserunners and runs he allowed in his starts last year...

His pitch count was much higher, I’d expect, than it was at the same point this year.

by Ben Buchanan on Sep 9, 2009 2:23 PM EDT up reply actions

Some hard numbers

In his time with the Sox in 2008 and 2009:

2008 (16 GP/15 GS): 76.0 IP, 1.763 WHIP, .355 BABip
2009 (11 GP/11 GS): 64.1 IP, 1.399 WHIP, .284 BABip

So he’s working an inning longer per start this year, and has 20% fewer baserunners, and doing a better job when pitching to contact. If he can maintain this, he’s got the raw stuff to be every bit as good as Lester.

by lone1c on Sep 9, 2009 2:40 PM EDT up reply actions

The poll suggests that we've all figured out

…that Clay has it figured out. Besides, anyone possessing the often-cited but seldom-seen ‘Bugs Bunny changeup’ has to be on a path to Greatness.

http://www.doubletongued.org/index.php/dictionary/bugs_bunny_changeup/

There’s no going back. Now, to straighten out Bowden…

by Mister Snitch on Sep 9, 2009 1:37 PM EDT reply actions

I think Clay's here to stay barring a last minute King Felix trade in the offseason.

Or maybe Pujols. I’d give up Clay for Pujols.

DFA Beckett

by South Coast Ghost on Sep 9, 2009 2:51 PM EDT reply actions

I bet most Sox fans would trade in Grandma if that meant the Sox could get Pujols.

by lone1c on Sep 9, 2009 3:05 PM EDT up reply actions

not so fast

Granny still outhits Varitek.

by Mister Snitch on Sep 9, 2009 3:09 PM EDT up reply actions

i could not be contained by that poll

the buchholz we’ve been waiting to see for years? well he’s been good, but personally i’m hoping for more, i’m hoping for a triumvirate of greatness with beckett lester and buch, im hoping for total domination. so no im not happy YET, but if he pitches great for the rest of the year, including playoffs, then sure, this is the buch we’ve been waiting for.

by revived0103 on Sep 9, 2009 3:33 PM EDT reply actions

I'm more than satisfied with his performance

I’ll take what he’s been doing any day. But I agree, he is potentially capable of being pretty overwhelming. As long as he gives us a better than even chance of winning, though, the pragmatist in me is happy.

by Mister Snitch on Sep 9, 2009 4:26 PM EDT up reply actions

I'm a Clay-doubter no more

You could have counted me as one of the ones ready to deal Clay away after 2008. A no-hitter against Baltimore then…what? Flash in the pan, then he’s done.

Well, it looks like I was wrong. I’m glad I am, too.

THAT'S the money you could be saving with Geico

by DJDP23 on Sep 9, 2009 4:54 PM EDT reply actions

guardedly optimistic

no doubt he has the stuff

head is the issue

when he is too cautious, gets behind, has to come in; seen that a couple starts

lately, he has relaxed and trusted his stuff to good advantage. But he has been pitching with a lead usually, and that makes it easier to relax. Also, he had some match-ups against big name pitchers, and I think he figured then that no one expected him to win, and that relaxed him

hopefully, success will breed confidence which will breed further success

by Frank Malzone on Sep 9, 2009 5:25 PM EDT reply actions

Bush League

To be honest with you all, I think that Buchholz is straight up bush league and a waste of a roster spot. Although we only have 20 or so games left before vacation time, I still care and we should dish Buchholz off before he isn’t even worth two knuckleballs and a left-handed fungo bat…Sox in da South…

by King of Da AL EAST on Sep 9, 2009 6:21 PM EDT reply actions