Don't choke on your Taco!

by radiohix on Sep 27, 2009 2:46 AM EDT

Jacoby Ellsbury started this season as the uncontested starting CFer for the Sox. Francona said that the team envision him as its leadoff hitter even when they demoted him in the batting order after the Minnesota serie. How's he doin' at that task, one word to describe that: Average!

Let's try to breakdown his hitting performance this year. Taco is sporting a .302/.353/.419 line although the BA is good, the OBP is average to mediocre if you consider that he's batting leadoff for a club with a WS expectations! If you look to the other contenders in the AL, you'll find that: Jeter is having a .401 OBP for the MFY and Figgins is doing very well for the Halos with a .399 OBP.

Ellsbury is not walking enough for a leadoff hitter (or an above avg baseball player for that matter) with an unhealthy clip of: 7 BB%. He clearly lacks plate discipline, FranGraphs' plate discipline section gives us a good outlook at Taco's tendencies in the batter box:

He's swinging at 23.9% of the pichs out of the zone (Figgins for example is swinging at a much lower clip 15.3%) combine that with the fact that he's making 72.3% contact with those pitchs out of the zone and, unless he's the second coming of Vladimir Guerrero or Pablo Sandoval, raises the probability of making weak contact resulting into outs: 50.1% of his batted balls are ground balls and only 17.2 % of them are line drives.

Don't get me wrong, Jacoby's not a mediocre overall player: He's a terrific base stealer (his success rate is ELITE), gives some highlight reels grabs, pink hats loves him and he plays some REAL GOOD defense....in LF!! But, don't fool your self thinking that we have a Carlos Beltran, I'm sorry to say: We may have a Carl Crawford at best!

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Comments

Don't mess with my Taco.

I know a good thing when I see it.

by NG on Sep 27, 2009 8:13 AM EDT reply actions

I'll take facts over opinions anytime!

But at least Taco ain’t no Francoeur kind of hacker: 35.7 O-swing%!!!

tRA is the real stat.

by bloodysock04 on Sep 27, 2009 1:20 PM EDT up reply actions

Not helping the crazy old guy stereotypes, NG.

@bs_uf15bosox9be The Original Gameday; Learn to use SB Nation

by bdalebs on Sep 27, 2009 11:03 PM EDT up reply actions

Nice post, Hix

I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.

by Drugs Delaney on Sep 27, 2009 4:57 PM EDT reply actions

but his fielding is awful

Unaccountably low UZR. Given his speed, it’s baffling. He needs to watch some tape of Andruw Jones.

by RickD on Sep 29, 2009 1:08 AM EDT reply actions

We have talked about this before

And honestly, until the past 15 games or so, have you seen Tacoby make many, if ANY, defensive miscues? UZR dictates that balls hit off the monster are catchable I believe, which becomes a burden on the CF and LF.

Ellsbury is great defensively. Stats can tell you somethings, yeah, but defense is something that a stat really can’t tell you. I mean I have seen A Gonz make some outstanding plays and his UZR is like 1 or something, isn’t it?

I didn't like the old one very much. I didn't see the ball there very well. - Julio Lugo on the old Yankees Stadium.

by Charged on Sep 29, 2009 10:43 PM EDT up reply actions

I don't know what you are watching

every game I watch he looks crappy in the field. Breaks too late on balls. Takes weird routes to the ball. Is Abreu-like in his fear of the wall. Can’t throw. Just in the NY series alone he F-ed up 3 plays (and I wasn’t even watching much). he dropped a ball on the warning track that should have easily been caught. He muffed a throw to third when the correct throw was to second (and he had no chance on the runner at 3rd), he misplayed Teixiera’s popup into a single by breaking back on the ball-and that would have been the 3rd out in what was to become the rally inning for the Yankees. His UZR is absolutely accurate-and it show him to be the 7th worst fielder at any position in all of baseball this year. He is awful in the field, period. I think fans get wowed by the speed without watching how he is approaching the ball. It is the same reason why Drew is not noticed as a great fielder-because he is always well positioned and takes proper routes. And guess what-UZR likes him as it should. Far more balls hit in his area become outs-which is what defense should be all about.

by Buzzy on Sep 30, 2009 11:50 AM EDT up reply actions

Exactimundo

Far too often fans and sportswriters look at the plays made by a player and not the plays the same player doesn’t make (unless it’s glaring). When you watch Ells every day, especially live, you’ll see a player that gets bad jumps and takes weird routes to the ball. His speed sometimes makes up for this. A lot of Ellsbury’s “web gems” are the result of his speed compensating for his bad instincts.

Gonzo is very sure-handed, but lacks range. Watch him closely and you’ll see a few hits that better shortstops turn into outs.

Both players don’t make a lot of errors. But they also allow more hits than they should.

I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.

by Drugs Delaney on Sep 30, 2009 12:00 PM EDT up reply actions