Winning the Division = Statistically Improbable
by 0157H7 on Sep 21, 2009 10:43 AM EDT
in News
47 comments
The Red Sox have been playing some great baseball lately. Over the last 10 games, they are 9-1. Some Red Sox fans are starting to believe that the division is within sight.
I hate to be the bringer of bad news, but it is very unlikely that the Sox catch the Yankees and win the AL East.
The Yankees have a 95-55 record at present, with 12 games left in their season. The Red Sox have a 89-59 record and 14 games left. To win the division outright, the Sox have to close a 5 game gap by winning 6 games, and then hold off the Yankees. But let's say the Sox and Yankees finish the season with a tied record. In that case, the division winner is determined by tie-breakers, starting with head-to-head record and then record against the whole division (see here, 10th and 11th paragraphs). The Sox lead in both of those categories right now, so if they can tie the Yankees in record, they ought to win the division.
After the jump, I detail how this plays out practically.
To win the division, it's likely that all the Sox have to do is tie it. Below, I've listed the combination of Sox wins and the maximum Yankee wins in the remaining games that allow a tie of their final records. The numbers in parentheses are the teams' final win totals given those figures.
Sox Wins :: Maximum Yankee Wins
14 (103 wins) 8 (103 wins)
13 (102 wins) 7 (102 wins)
12 (101) 6 (101 wins)
11 (100) 5 (100)
10 (99) 4 (99)
9 (98) 3 (98)
8 (97) 2 (97)
7 (96) 1 (96)
6 (95) 0 (95)
So, if the Sox win every remaining game (14), the Yankees can still hold them off by going 9-3 the rest of the way. If the Yankees play .500 baseball the rest of the way, they'll win 6 games and Boston will have to win 12 to tie them.
Someone more mathematically gifted than myself can run the numbers on these scenarios and give likelihoods. If you assume that the chance the Yankees lose any game is 50%,* the odds of the Yankees losing each of their last 12 games is 1/2^12, or 1 in 4096, or a 0.02441% chance. Every Yankee win going forward, and every Sox loss, astronomically reduces the chances of the Sox winning the division.
Coolstandings.com currently gives the Sox odds of winning the division as 9.6%. It will take a combination of an utter collape by the Yankees and a miraculous run by the Sox for the latter to win. Dice-K, Wake would have to be superb, the pen would have to hold leads, and our offense would need to be on a tear. It could all happen, but don't bet on it.
*This is pushing it, because the Yankees are a better than average team, so their odds of losing should be below 50%.
0 recs |
47 comments
|
Email
Print
Comments
89 + 59 + 13 = 161
The Red Sox have a 89-59 record and 13 games left.
the Sox have 14 games left,
4 games serie Vs KC
3 games versus vs The MFY
3 games vs Toronto
4 games serie vs The Indians
"That was a lot of fun… You just keep pounding balls into the gap. The one thing you don’t want to do is hit a home run. That’s a rally-killer." Jeff Francoeur
by radiohix on Sep 21, 2009 11:06 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
The Division
It’s possible, but I’d rather them finish strong and get in with the Wild Card then blow themselves out chasing the division.
Man I love that tuna casserole.
by Bloggy on Sep 21, 2009 11:09 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
This
I honestly don’t care about winning the division at this point of the season and I would like Tito to go with a 6 men rotation for the remaining 14 games to give Beckett, Lester and Buchholz some rest needed ( Lester and Buch are reaching season high in IP).
"That was a lot of fun… You just keep pounding balls into the gap. The one thing you don’t want to do is hit a home run. That’s a rally-killer." Jeff Francoeur
by radiohix on Sep 21, 2009 11:18 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
*career high in IP
"That was a lot of fun… You just keep pounding balls into the gap. The one thing you don’t want to do is hit a home run. That’s a rally-killer." Jeff Francoeur
by radiohix on Sep 21, 2009 11:19 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't see the Sox blowing themselves out chasing the division
It’s not Tito’s style. Look, the Sox are going to a 6-man rotation (depending on Wake’s health). They’re doing this to rest the starters down the stretch. If/when the MFY clinch, look for Bowden or Tazawa to get a start.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Sep 21, 2009 11:18 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agree
EColi is of course correct in that this is unlikely with a capital C. Furthermore, Tito is going to continue to rest pitchers with the 6 man rotation if he can (see Byrd vs. Greinke on Tuesday). That is the right thing to do. The fun thing to consider is this-the Yankees have to play us, the Angels on the road and the Rays (who have stumbled but have talent). They also have KC for 3. On the other hand, we have the 2 worst AL Central teams +Toronto in addition to the Yankees. The next 6 games for the Yankees and 7 for us will tell the story. If the Yankees stumble hard against LA and us, then it really becomes a possibility (assuming we don’t lose more than one to KC).
by Buzzy on Sep 21, 2009 11:31 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't see it, either.
We’re pretty comfortable making a run from the Wild Card position.
Man I love that tuna casserole.
by Bloggy on Sep 21, 2009 11:53 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
really the main reason i want to win the division
is to crush the yankees psychologically. but of course we have the ALCS for that (;
by revived0103 on Sep 21, 2009 2:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That would be nice
To blow a 9 game lead with 21 to go would be epic, except for the fact that the MFY are a playoff lock.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Sep 21, 2009 2:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
yeah thats the only downside
even if they blow it they’re still going to the playoffs. it would make the collapse less epic, but still awesome for us.
by revived0103 on Sep 21, 2009 4:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
3 games in New York
The Sox are 4 game back in the loss column. If (and this is a big IF) they sweep the Yankees then they only have to make up one other game to win the east. Take 2 of 3 and make up 3 other games.
Entirely possible and very much in the Sox control which is the most key aspect.
Three reasons to win the east:
1.Play the Tiger instead of the Angles first round,
2. Home field advantage thoughout the playoff, where do you want to play games 6 & 7 of the ALCS, Fenway or Yankee stadium?
3. Sweeping the Yankees and dropping them to the wild card and they will be so in their head they will not beat the Angles in the first round or be their cocky selves if they survive the ALDS.
The Sox can’t kill the Yanks off at this point but they can seriously wound them psychologically and they would be fools not to try 100% next weekend to do that.
by holde kaeft on Sep 21, 2009 11:48 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
True
but regardless of the benefits you can’t blow out your team’s arms or fail to set up your rotation for a low probability shot. Sweeping the Yankees at home alone is a low probability shot. It is not so clear what home field means. We did not have it for any series last year or in 04. Last year we were grat at home and stunk on the road, especially in LA and Tampa. How did we do there? We went 4-2, and the 2 losses to Tampa were damn close (including an extra inning game). On the other hand we stunk at home (lost 2/3 to Tampa with the one win being a fluke, and split with LA with the one win coming essentially on a failed suicide squeeze). It would be nice to have home field, and to have the Yankees play LA in the first round, but the chances are low and the benefits are necessarily that great.
by Buzzy on Sep 21, 2009 12:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
you prepare for winning by winning
A. There is a good chance we will pick up a game on the Yankees this week without killing ourselves
B. it is all about the Yankee series, we have swept 60% of the series so far this year with the Yanks (3 of 5)
C. You answer your own question about home field advantage better than I could plus in ’09 .500 on the road .700 at home
D. Senario, next Sunday, 1 or 2 gamed behind the Yankees, who do you start Beckett or Byrd?
Beckett on tuesday, Beckett on Sunday
It is possible
You have to BELIEVE
by holde kaeft on Sep 21, 2009 12:35 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Welcome to OTM, by the way.
To reply to an individual comments, you can click on the “reply” button below the comment. Makes it clear who you’re responding to.
"It's just a tiny little nick, but it hurts when I get champagne in there."
- Jason Bay, on getting spiked scoring the winning run in ALDS Game Four.
by 0157H7 on Sep 21, 2009 1:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It is possible
but it is not likely and is not overwhelmingly important. The cliche about “winning by winning” has been proven wrong over and over in baseball, where many teams that backed in won (eg the 2000 Yankees) and teams that looked like locks fizzled out. I don’t think you understood my point about home/road: last year we were similar in our home and road strength and in our limited games in the playoffs our results were much better on the road than home. As for picking up a game, I think tonight is key for both the Sox and Yankees in that regard. If the Sox win and Yankees lose (and if Pettitte has physical problems) then sure, I think we could take 3-4 and the Yankees chance losing the LAA series is a real possibility. Our chances of winning Tuesday are low because that has to be one of the worst pitching matchups on record this year. As for playing in NY-we are 2-4 this year, so a sweep in NY is unlikely, there is no way to argue around it.
by Buzzy on Sep 21, 2009 1:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
For further proof of the foolishness of "winning by winning"
How ’bout them 2007 Rockies? Won like 20 games straight to end the season, and got swept in the WS.
"It's just a tiny little nick, but it hurts when I get champagne in there."
- Jason Bay, on getting spiked scoring the winning run in ALDS Game Four.
by 0157H7 on Sep 21, 2009 3:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well, now.
you prepare for winning by winning
No one is arguing that the Sox are gonna tank games or anything. But that said, winning the World Series trumps winning the division, and if you can ensure that you have the components you require to win the World Series available, then you do that.
It is possible
You have to BELIEVE
I believe that it’s possible. But I don’t much care if we don’t achieve it. And I don’t think others should much care, either. I think a strong showing in New York is far more important.
Man I love that tuna casserole.
by Bloggy on Sep 21, 2009 1:47 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
BLOCK QUOTE FAIL
@#$%
Man I love that tuna casserole.
by Bloggy on Sep 21, 2009 1:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sox
What’s the point of pushing for the division. We have won the WS from the wild card.
We should just work on staying hot into the playoffs.
by JayBay on Sep 21, 2009 2:09 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
And make sure the starters are well-rested
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Sep 21, 2009 2:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Oh way the BoSox catch the Yankees
Is if the Angels sweep the them this week and the BoSox sweep or take 3 of 4 from KC. Other than that, I think it’s a moat point to worry about winning the division.
by cthunder on Sep 21, 2009 2:58 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
No chance to catch the Yankees
Seriously folks, the playoffs are set. Except for a meaningless AL Central Team (who cares, not advancing either Tigers or Twins) the last games before the playoffs are about tuning the winning machine. Sweeping KC is not about tuning the playoff machine, it is about not getting hurt, burning through innings of our starters or taking a psychological chill pill.
The Red Sox are mentally more capable than the Yankess in the playoffs. Look at our team vs. their team. Beyond Jeter, Pettitte, Posada and Damon, name one guy who has performed after October 3rd? Teixeira is having a great MVP type year, and did hit well as an Angel last year in the first round.
The only important thing is to go to the Bronx next week and win that series. Put some grip in the hearts of the pinstripers.
If you want stats about how probable it is to catch the Yankees outright. Look at this stat -
Since August 24th the Sox are a sizzling 18-6 a .667 winning percentage. They have totally smoked the wannabe Rump Rangers and shown the Angels they still have their number. An amazing run considering we were 5 games UNDER .500 in the period from All-star Break until August 24th.
However…
In all that time, with all that pressure riding on the Sox when the Rangers were just 1 game back of us, the Yankees have quietly played the same period of time to 16-9 record, almost exactly their current winning percentage – .640!
We have made up only 2.5 games during that run. Don’t plan on catching them. More likely the Sox will cool off.
If we match our winning percentage the rest of the 14 games, call it 9-5 all the Yankees need to do is win 4 games. That seems like a lock. Although, taking 2 of three at YS would be nice…
by sdweiss0904 on Sep 21, 2009 3:30 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Both teams will be resting guys down the stretch. I anticipate the Yankees giving starts to Mitre and Gaudin down the stretch.
Basically, the Sox would have to go 11-3 and the Yankees would have to have a losing record – best way to do this is to sweep New York and hope the Angels and Tampa Bay whoop up on New York.
If it happens – fantastic. But I think everyone knows as well as I that we’ll be seeing a lot of Gathright, Anderson, Kottaras and Kotchman the next couple weeks.
by Rev. KB on Sep 21, 2009 3:48 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Hey idiot
What are u talking about? Lets see 14 games left and they play the yanks 3 more times. They could easily get back into first. Yanks are already looking to the postseason and the Red Sox got back Dice-k with tim wakefield coming back. Looks like you are a yanks fan wishing that the Yanks have the division. Penty of ball to play.
by Drew P on Sep 21, 2009 4:27 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Obviously...
We all would like to see the sox take the east (I think the best chance we have is winning 3 of 4 in KC, and hope the halos take 2, then a sweep to stick us tied in the loss. We could go 101-61 with a little help while still running a 6 man rotation and subbing Bay one day, Drew the next, etc. etc.). But I think with no more off days before the end of the season, we have to play the percentages. If we give it all we’ve got and come up short, then have to go to Anaheim tired, we could easily go down 0-2. The division push only makes sense if we succeed, and the odds are dramatically against us.
That being said, tied next monday? who knows. (my first post, hope I didn’t break any decorum)
by RyanBeingManny on Sep 21, 2009 5:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
No decorum broken
and welcome to OTM.
"It's just a tiny little nick, but it hurts when I get champagne in there."
- Jason Bay, on getting spiked scoring the winning run in ALDS Game Four.
by 0157H7 on Sep 21, 2009 6:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Funny
Its a low prob that yanks get swept? Man u people are retarded. Sox won like 9 straight against them. This is baseball, anything can happen. Why are the yanks resting players? They will go into the postseason lame. Happens to teams all the time. Look at the Angels last year.
by Drew P on Sep 21, 2009 4:32 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Of course anything can happen
but unless you think that 10% means the Sox “[could] easily get back into first” then it is low probability. Even if the Sox take 3/4 while the Yankees get swept by the Angels it means that the Sox are still 2.5 behind the Yankees. Then the Sox would basically have to sweep again-meaning the Yankees would have lost 8 of 9. Don’t think that has come close to happening all year. Sure anything can happen, but coolstandings puts it at 10%-which sounds about right.
by Buzzy on Sep 21, 2009 4:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
you made 2 posts already
first one
Hey idiot
2nd one
Man u people are retarded
Let me tell you this : Man you are agressive more than Francoeur at the plate! No need to call people names, show some respect we all Sox fans! Oh…an welcome to OTM!
"That was a lot of fun… You just keep pounding balls into the gap. The one thing you don’t want to do is hit a home run. That’s a rally-killer." Jeff Francoeur
by radiohix on Sep 21, 2009 6:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sawx chances of winning the AL East
Of course they have a chance. But we will definitely how much to push after the Sox/KC series and the MFY/Angels series. If Sox win 3 of 4 or sweep (unlikely if Greinke pitches to his capability) AND the MFY get swept by the halos, we go to NY trailing by only 2 games. That said, the Sox rotation is not exactly set up for that weekend series in NY, while the dogs will pitch Sabathia and Burkett. So it will be tough but doable. On the other hand, if the MFY win one or two against the Angels, it is all but impossible for the Sox to win the division. At that point, we set up our 6 man rotation and get ready for the wild card series against the Angels. What we should not do is rest everyone while we’re hot. When you’re hot, you look to stay hot. Don’t mess with it!! If all our starters perform at peak levels, the Sox are clearly the team to beat.
by LesBleus on Sep 21, 2009 4:36 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
The Yankees hear the foot steps
from the NY Daily News
(The Yankee return) home for three games with the Red Sox, making for a crucial, potentially season-changing week in the AL playoff races. “These are important games this week,” Girardi said. “As I’ve said all along, I think this thing is going to go down to the end. No one is going to hand you anything.”
I tell ya, the best chance for the Sox to get to the World Series is to catch the Yankees and win the division. I live in New York I know these idiots here, they will be so in their heads if they loose the division they will never get past the Angles.
by holde kaeft on Sep 21, 2009 5:28 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
That stuff
is for fans and newspapers. The players really don’t care too much about it.
by Buzzy on Sep 21, 2009 5:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
actually, Buzzy...
I think the Yanks ARE a bit concerned. Not about the Sox per se. And not about making the playoffs – that’s a given. But Andy Pettitte’s shoulder is a BIG question mark. In previous years, he’s broken down once his shoulder starts barking. (He’s no kid.) Then there’s Joba, who everyone from Cashman to the clubhouse attendant is worried about. He’s a ticking time bomb, a loose cannon. Burnett? He’s REALLY great when he’s on, but it’s 50/50 whether you see Jeckyll or Hyde. And CC? He’s game, but his playoff record is scary if you’re rooting for the MFY.
So – the writers have it wrong. The Yanks aren’t worried about the Sox. But they ARE worried that things have, well, gone a little too smoothly for much of the season. They know they have problems, and they know those problems have not yet gone and bit them in the ass. What concerns them is that their chickens will come home to roost once the Big Spotlight is on them.
by Mister Snitch on Sep 21, 2009 6:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
There's no guarantee they get past the Tigers
Sure, the MFY have taken five of six against the Tigers this year, but they swept the Indians two years ago and then blew it in the Division Series. And the Tigers beat them in the playoffs three years ago after going 2-5 against them in the regular season.
by RSNexile on Sep 21, 2009 5:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I remember hearing the odds are stacked against the sox another time
like the 2003 ALCS against the yankees, wonder how that went. Even if we lose the division its not really a bad thing considering that we get to bully the Angels again.
by darknight555 on Sep 21, 2009 6:25 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
The odds were stacked in the '04 ALCS
Assuming a 50% chance of winning a game, you get 1/2^4 = 1/16 or a 6.25% chance of winning four games in a row. If you believe Coolstandings’s figures, the odds are slightly better for the Sox now.
"It's just a tiny little nick, but it hurts when I get champagne in there."
- Jason Bay, on getting spiked scoring the winning run in ALDS Game Four.
by 0157H7 on Sep 21, 2009 6:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
...
I REALLY hope this was a typo.
@bs_uf15bosox9be The Original Gameday; Learn to use SB Nation
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Sep 21, 2009 7:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
This is an example of where taking a middle road is the best strategy.
The Sox have not yet clinched a playoff spot, so it doesn’t make a lot of sense to completely ease off the pedal at the moment. However, it also doesn’t make sense to go full-bore for a 1-in-10 shot at winning the division. I think the current strategy—-a 6-man rotation, plus some off-days for the starters here and there—-is the right way to go.
by lone1c on Sep 21, 2009 8:14 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Sounds like my horoscope for today.
/tangent
@bs_uf15bosox9be The Original Gameday; Learn to use SB Nation
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Sep 21, 2009 8:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Question
Hypothetically, Sox win WC and beat the Angels in the ALDS, and the MFYs lose to the Central Team – who gets home team advantage in the ALCS? The team with the best record?
Manny ain't the only bad man.
by tommy.otm on Sep 21, 2009 10:01 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Should be.
Would probably be the division winner though.
@bs_uf15bosox9be The Original Gameday; Learn to use SB Nation
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Sep 21, 2009 10:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wild card team never gets home field advantage
Which is another reason Tito might have tried a little harder to protect his 8-2 lead against KC last night. A victory and we’re three away from the AL East pennant and home field.
by ccthemovieman on Sep 22, 2009 12:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Certain photos copyright © 2009 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
