What should the Sox expect out of Daisuke Matsuzaka?

by Randy Booth on Sep 11, 2009 11:32 AM EDT in News

With 23 games left this season, the Red Sox sit two games ahead of the Texas Rangers in the American League Wild Card race. These 23 games will obviously make or break the Red Sox's chance to make it to the postseason.

As much as we might not want to admit it, a lot of it rests on the shoulders of Daisuke Matsuzaka.

Ahh, Dice-K. Do you remember 2008? Despite his efforts to walk every batter in the American League -- twice -- in the course of a season, his year was pretty good. Sure, the WHIP was too high. Sure, he gave us all heart attacks every five days. But he didn't allow the runs to score and he got the job done.

That was last year.

This year, Dice-K's season has been injury-filled and when he did pitch, he was horrid. His best start of the season came earlier this week. It was a great start: 6.2 innings, one walk, one run and struck out seven.

For Single-A Salem. Hmm.

So the results don't mean much -- or, anything at all. But at least it gives Dice-K some confidence. Yeah, he's facing 19- and 20-year-old green hitters, but it was still an outing he can work off of. Throwing strikes and getting outs is the same at every level. And whatever way Dice-K can get confidence, I'm all for.

Let's go into a pretend world. Let's say that Dice-K is activated next week and throws seven scoreless innings in his first start back.

What do you say then?

I'm sure most of you would say: "It's just one start, let's see more." Some would say: "The postseason is ours!"

No matter what the results are, an effective Dice-K means a scary Red Sox team.

With Josh Beckett and Jon Lester being themselves -- and Clay Buchholz becoming a Lil' Beckett -- adding Dice-K to the starting pitching equation would sure up this team in a heartbeat. The Sox wouldn't have to worry about Tim Wakefield's back at all with those four revved up at top speed. As much as the Sox would love to be able to rely on Wakefield, at this point they know whatever they can get from him at this point is just a plus.

But let's get out of the pretend world and get into the real world. What can the Sox expect out of Dice-K? Will we even see him before the season is over? Will we ever see the Dice-K we saw last season again?

In pursuit of a World Series, the Red Sox would love to have him back.

Poll

What will we see out of Daisuke Matsuzaka the rest of the season?

He ain't even coming back

66 votes

He'll be back and decent, but nothing great

154 votes

He'll pitch just as well as we've ever seen him

77 votes

Grab the closest coin and find out for yourself

109 votes

406 votes | Poll has closed

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Comments

over rated

He’s just an average # 4 starter at best.

by Old Fan on Sep 11, 2009 11:50 AM EDT reply actions

RE:

So do you think 2008 was a fluke? Or do you just think injuries will keep him down for good?

OverTheMonster.com

by Randy Booth on Sep 11, 2009 11:51 AM EDT up reply actions

Randy, I thought it was pretty clear that was an extremely lucky season.

@bs_uf15bosox9be The Original Gameday; Learn to use SB Nation

by bdalebs on Sep 11, 2009 10:57 PM EDT up reply actions

Dice-K is a competitor,

if his shoulder can handle the pressure, I expect him to be in the rotation within the next couple weeks.

by SoxAcumen on Sep 11, 2009 11:54 AM EDT reply actions

Even competitors break, though

But will he be as good as last year?

OverTheMonster.com

by Randy Booth on Sep 11, 2009 11:56 AM EDT up reply actions

Dice-K

I believe he is a #4 starter at best. He is an inning eater when he is on, but thats only when he is on. I honestly think we could trade him for some solid pitching prospects and maybe a RF prospect

by Patsfan1220 on Sep 11, 2009 12:03 PM EDT reply actions

In 2008, he wasn't an inning eater at all

He averaged less than 6 innings per start.

I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.

by Drugs Delaney on Sep 11, 2009 12:32 PM EDT up reply actions

This ^

I would say he is the opposite of an innings eater, even at his best.

We are not normal. We are legends.

by NittanyAlum02 on Sep 11, 2009 2:30 PM EDT up reply actions

Of course

2008 was a fluke in terms of both wins and ERA. But he was a pretty good pitcher. You could argue he was in many ways better in 2007. Consider that in 2007 he went significantly deeper in games, he threw more innings, had better K and BB rates and his FIP was very similar. The difference in the 2 years was largely HRs allowed (he cut his rate down from 10% on fly balls to 6%), which could have been chance too, and he had a rediculously low BAPIP and high strand % in 08. In 07 Dice-K hade a 3.84 ERA at the break and slowed down a bit after that (he was also “victimized” by the pen allowing a fair fraction of his runners LOB to score). I don’t think we should want or expect 08 Matsuzaka. 07 Matsuzaka is fine, and is an excellent #4 or an average #3 on a good AL team. I would like to see him get Byrd’s start against LA (he would be slated to go then) or, if the race is still too close for comfort the Sox can go with a 4 man till Wakefield makes his next start because we have enough days off.

by Buzzy on Sep 11, 2009 12:11 PM EDT reply actions

Regarding the upcoming series with LA

(1) I’m not sure Dice-K is better than Byrd right now.
(2) I’m not sure he really is ready. How many rehab starts has Matsuzaka made?

The Sox play Baltimore and KC after LA. It might be better to ease Dice-K in slowly by having him make his first start against a non-contending team. Assuming he skips the LA series, there still should be time for Dice-K to make 3 starts before the season ends.

I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.

by Drugs Delaney on Sep 11, 2009 12:40 PM EDT up reply actions

byrd kinda sucks

sure it might be better to ease dice-k back in, but theres no reason to think that byrd is better than dice-k right now. dice-k has been rehabbing for months and just pitched his third(?) rehab start. I don’t think byrd spent too much time rehabbing after his year of retirement, and his first start was a fluke. i think it is so sad that at the beginning of the year i laughed at the thought of needing paul byrd because of all the depth we had. and now we’re almost relying on him.

by revived0103 on Sep 11, 2009 2:22 PM EDT up reply actions

Sure, Byrd is nothing special

But in his three starts this year he has been better than Dice-K. If Dice-K can come back and by the low 4.00s FIP pitcher he was in his first two years, then Matsuzaka is a huge upgrade. But there’s no guarantee that he is, and a good Single-A start doesn’t make Dice-K a sure thing.

Last year, Byrd had a 4.93 FIP (4.72 FIP in 3 starts this year). In four starts this year, Dice-K posted a 5.73 FIP, up from 4.23 FIP (2007) and 4.03 FIP (2008). So, if both are healthy, Matsuzaka is significantly better. But, right now, Dice-K is a question mark.

I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.

by Drugs Delaney on Sep 11, 2009 3:11 PM EDT up reply actions

Dice Dice Baby

I think last year was deceiving, numbers-wise. He may have had a good record and a low ERA, but if you watched any of those games, you know damn well it was a crapshoot as to whether or not he’d win it. He had high pitch counts and early departures…basically just long enough to have enough time in for a win if the bullpen held on. Which it usually did for him.

Coming back, I don’t expect anything great from him. I only pray for decency.

Man I love that tuna casserole.

by Bloggy on Sep 11, 2009 1:54 PM EDT reply actions

He is going to shock everyone and be very good.

First time out might be rocky, but after that-look out.

Victimized. But still here.

by gizmosandy on Sep 11, 2009 5:04 PM EDT reply actions

Fool ?

He doesn’t fool hitters anymore, they make him throw strikes and hammer him.

by Old Fan on Sep 11, 2009 5:47 PM EDT reply actions

Agrees with Old Fan

I have never liked Dice, and unless he mans up and starts challenging major league hitters I never will like him. He dissed the Sox management, dissed the training methods, and when he is actually in the strike zone he gets hammered. How many days for a sore shoulder, right! The Sox are paying way too much for a borderline #4 starter. Sorry to keep beating this dead horse but trade him to Texas, they seem to be in love with his training methods. And Texas has several actually good starters that the Sox management might be able to finagle. Of course, if he actually starts winning games like a major league starter I’ll be happy to eat my words with some Boston Red Sauce. But I doubt it.

by papoonforpresident on Sep 11, 2009 11:08 PM EDT reply actions

so....

when do we pull the plug and realize that throwing as many pitches as he did back in japan, we should never have tinkered with his style? he can’t find the arm strength, or even the gyroball. nomo was great his rookie year, right?

by gmoney425 on Sep 12, 2009 1:49 PM EDT reply actions