Game 131: Papelbon shuts down Rays for win
by Randy Booth on Sep 1, 2009 11:42 PM EDT
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PrintJonathan Papelbon makes grown men cry.
With the Sox up by just three, the Rays loaded the bases against Hideki Okajima in the 8th with no outs. That's when Papelbon came in and shut the door for two consecutive innings to give the Sox a 8-4 victory.
Jon Lester started and held the Rays in check. He went six innings, allowed seven hits, two runs, two walks and struck out nine. He was effective in the win but, better yet, the offense didn't miss a beat, either.
Jacoby Ellsbury, Victor Martinez, Kevin Youkilis and Mike Lowell each had two hits in the win. Youk, J.D. Drew and Jason Bay all had home runs. Drew's was a two-run shot that broke a 1-1 tie in the fourth inning.
While Oki really blew (he gave up two runs without recording an out), Billy Wagner pitched his second inning with the Sox and struck out two while not surrendering a hit or walk. While this could be premature, at the moment, Wagner has been effective. That means only good things for the Sox.
Minus Oki's stint, this was a complete effort by the Sox. Lester, Wagner and Paps all pitched well while the offense continues to click. Finally, I think everything is coming together for the Red Sox. We've waited all season and I think we're finally seeing it.
Josh Beckett on the hill Wednesday.
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If it hadn't been for Oki's 5 batters
This would have been the most impressive effort by the Sox I’ve seen this season.
faded
Oki faded at the end of last season too, maybe it’s conditioning.
But the Japanese have superior shoulders, if Dice-L
@bs_uf15bosox9be The Original Gameday; Learn to use SB Nation
ARG.
- Dice-K’s journalist friend is to be believed.
@bs_uf15bosox9be The Original Gameday; Learn to use SB Nation
Hey guys
Just dropping by to say I’m not dead or something like that, just have been very busy lately. Good to see us beating these assholes, a sweep and it’s ‘see ya next season’ for Tampa.
"Hey we got a lot in common here... I'm gonna rape you"
good to hear from you
A win tonight and we would have to almost pull an 07 Mets to allow the Rays to make it…
Paps looks like the closer we're used to seeing
in recent years. Love that enthusiasm, too (which he’s always had.) Efforts like last night will go a long way to getting him the big bucks he wants.
Meanwhile, Ellsbury showed his value to the team as a game-saving centerfielder and the best thing on the base paths the Sox have had in decades. He hits.300 and is improving on his OBS. I’ve said it all along; he’s a big star in the making and getting better all the time. . Of similar age and experience is Justin Pedroia who has the fire in his belly that these other guys do. Add in Youk, Jon Lester and a few other possibles (Bard, Lowrie, etc) and you have a nucleus to build around to keep he Sox a winner for many years. Let’s hope FO agrees and keeps these guys here well into the 2010s.
Last night’s win was the biggest of the season thus far. If we can just keep Okijima away from the mound in big games, we’ll be fine. Billy the Kid seems to be on a mission. Use him when you need a lefty at crunch time.
Papelbon looked good...
but the 8th inning could had been a disaster for Papelbon if Ellsbury didn’t make that catch off Jason Bartlett’s bat, if the ball went by Ells, Papelbon would had gotten some of the blame as well.
Paps was thrown in a similar situation, (I think it was actually a tiny bit better situation with one out) this season against the Orioles in the game that the Sox blew a 9 run lead, or rather the Sox bullpen blew a 9 run lead. Paps gave up a double that gave the Orioles the lead, IIRC.
As much as the Rays have a pretty good batting line up, their fielding looked NY Met like, with three errors with Crawford’s little league error, the most noticeable. They were playing like the Rays in their classic years, of 70 wins 92 losses seasons of the past
Re: Ray's Defence
I thought there actually should have been FOUR errors, but I guess they didn’t count Longoria’s dropping Gonzo’s liner and then misfiring to 1st as an error, but rather a fielder’s choice.
In any event…yeah, that was a comedy of errors out there in the Trop, I tell ya.
Man I love that tuna casserole.
It's amazing how horrible they were defensively last night.
Even with a few downgrades from last season, they’re still supposed to be really good.
To me, an error should be anytime a fielder doesn’t make a play that at least 75% of his peers would – wait, that sounds JUST like UZR…
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Now Tonight...
needs to be a statement game for Boston. Boston needs to at least win a series with Tampa Bay. Beckett has been very un-Beckett like the last 3 starts and conversely Matt Garza typically owns the Sox. Boston needs to make a statement tonight out there in Tampa. We the last two series with Tampa we can knock them out of the wildcard chase, and who knows we aren’t so far out the division race either we can still end up with that.
Sodomize Intolerance
by sonicdeathmonkey on Sep 2, 2009 10:50 AM EDT reply actions
Garza can't do this by himself...
Garza is not having a good year. However, like Kazmir, he is still a nemesis to the Sox.. However the Rays defense can’t repeat what it did on Tuesday night. an AL East team can’t let a good team like the Sox get on base, or beat out a double play ball. The Sox have its weaknesses, but they are pretty good in starting out 2 out rallies. A team can’t give any breathing space to a team like the Sox or the MFY, or it will cost them…
I don’t know what to expect from Beckett tonight. I just hope he doesn’t give up too many homers to a home run happy ballclub…
The Rays should be thankful the Sox doesn’t have its Rays killer in its rotation at the moment: Wakefield
Kazmir's gone
But Garza is Red Sox Kryptonite.
Wakefield is NOT a 2008-09 Rays killer. His record at Tropicana is inflated by beating up on the AWFUL teams of their past. In his one start this year, he lasted five innings and allowed five runs. In three starts last year, his ERA was 5.87, and Rays batters had an .886 OPS (131 OPS+) against him. In his one start in the ALCS last year, they rocked him to the tune of five runs in 2.2 innings.
"It's just a tiny little nick, but it hurts when I get champagne in there."
- Jason Bay, on getting spiked scoring the winning run in ALDS Game Four.
Post Season Odds look very good once again
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/ps_odds.php sees us at 82% (highest of the season). We’ve been down to 42% a couple weeks ago.
Pecota adjusted are even 92%.
Lets keep it rollin Sox.
by German Red Sox Fan on Sep 2, 2009 11:30 AM EDT reply actions
How much better are the Yankees than the Sox?
the Yankees do seem to be the stronger team. Best hitting in the AL, much improved pitching and defense, good pen. By Pythag the Sox and Yankees are very close, as would be expected given the Yankees inordinate # of walk-off wins (including the Castillo debacle). It is hard for me to tell if these Yankees are a world-beating team or just a very good one in disguise:
a)CC is great, but Burnett seems to be totally unreliable. Leading the league in walks and WPs, bad peripherals and great stuff. Pettitte is pitching well, but interestingly his FIP is worse this year than last, when no one would be scared to face him. Forget Mitre. Joba also has awful peripherals, and I don’t quite understand the 3 inning start-plan. Can he then throw a full start in the playoffs?
b)The hitting is great, and they have true HR power from a lot of guys. In order for the Yankees to be where they are, they have had a magical, projection-beating turn from nearly all of the old guys that were at significant risk for decline: Jeter, Damon, Posada, Matsui and even ARod[given the hip surgery this March ]. I doubt that can reoccur next year, but for now they are killing the ball.
What do you guys think? If it comes to pass, how hard do you think the Yankees would be to beat in the postseason (aside from the obvious fact that anything can happen in a 7 game series)?
I think their chances depend on how good Cash Cow is in the post-season
If he pitches like he did in the past, the MFY won’t go very far. However, the playoffs are a crapshoot. There’s a month a baseball left in the regular season. Anything can happen. A key injury here or there can change things.
Right now, the old guys on the MFY are playing over their heads.
Jeter (35-years old) – .389 wOBA (2009), .343 wOBA (2008), .375 wOBA (career)
Damon (35-years old) – .387 wOBA (2009), .373 wOBA (2008), .351 wOBA (career)
Matsui (35-years old) – .372 wOBA (2009), .348 wOBA (2008), .367 wOBA (career)
Posada (38-years old) – .375 wOBA (2009), .340 wOBA (2008), .370 wOBA (career)
I’m sure part of it is the joke of a ballpark they play in. But how many 35+ players post seasons better than their career norms? While they’ll probably be able to sustain their performance through the remainder of the year, I’d be shocked if they were able to do it again next year. That said, old players are an injury risk going forward. But, if they remain healthy, the MFY will go as far as their pitching takes them.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Sep 2, 2009 12:21 PM EDT up reply actions
To answer your question....
I think it would be difficult, but far from impossible. The offense numbers may be inflated due to the NEW YANKEE STADIUM…but 4 of 7 games of the series would be played there, so it doesn’t really matter why the old knobs are hitting well…just that they are. That offense is just plain dangerous.
Their starting pitching is definitely where things will be won or lost. Burnett really is a toss up. He can be absolutely lights out…but he’s as likely, if not more so, to be vulnerable. We know we can get to CC in the playoffs, but that’s certainly no guarantee. Joba is another crapshoot.
I like our starters against theirs still, even with Beckett’s current struggles and the uncertainty on our #3. I like this potential series to go 7…and I’m giving us a 60% chance of winning it. And I’m pullin’ all that outta my ass.
Man I love that tuna casserole.
The Yankees have 1 HUGE problem
Right now Burnett is terrible, if he cannot be their #2, then that rotation is just CC and Pettitte. Joba is not reliable, neither is Mitre or Gaudin.
Burnett might be the Yankees Achilles heel. IF he does not perform, well I do not think they will win the AL, not with the Red Sox, Angels and Detroit all having better 3-5 starters and bullpens.
They're good,
but I trust Beckett/Lester in the playoffs over CC/Burnett. The playoffs are all about high-end starters that are dependable. We have them and the Yanks don’t.
"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw
Well
Pettitte likely trumps our #3 no matter who that will be-and in a seven game series that would likely be 2 starts. I hope CC is the bad cold weather starter he seems to be….
+1
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Sep 2, 2009 3:42 PM EDT up reply actions
Yankees pitching isn't that great..
The Yankees have two good pitchers, CC Sabathia and Mariano. Everyone on the staff else doesn’t have great stats, including Petite. The MFY’s hitting is covering up many of problems with their pitching staff. As much as the media is claiming how Phil Hughes is doing great in the bullpen, he really isn’t doing that great.
Matt Garza has a better ERA, I don’t know his FIP to the Yankees pitching staff, but he has some better numbers than most of the Yankees pitching, starting or bullpen.
Also Yankee Stadium may be inflating the numbers of the Yankees pitching staff as well.
The Yankees still looks like they still have the same problems with middle relief and part of their starting rotation as they had in the beginning of the season.. It is just their batting lineup is so awesome, that the pitching staff can give up a couple runs per game and not need to worry about blowing a win… like last night’s game where Burnett gave up six runs, but the Yankees still won, against another hitter heavy/pitching lite club: the Orioles..
I take it back about Hughes...
I saw his stats for August and July, he is pitching very well as a set up man, he gave up two runs in August and one run in July, that is pretty awesome…
just going to say
he has been awesome from the pen. Teams are OPSing 434 against him from the pen. That’s better than Mariano…
The GOOD and the bad
Last nights game was mostly on the good. We may well have the pieces in place to make a run at the wildcard. The things I see now both good and bad are:
Good- the line up last night was very good, our best. No Varitek hitting and Lowell in there with all the rest. Very impressive.
Bad- Francona will still play Varitek at times, and Lowell can’t play ever night, I guess.
Good-Starting pitching is coming around, especially if Buch and Bryd can be consistent
Very Good-Papelbon was extremely impressive, almost scary last night. I’d have to say that he is worth almost anything he wants, and the Sox ought to give him a contract for whatever he wants if he can keep up performances like last night. Chilling!
Bad- Okajima was very, very poor, and maybe the bullpen is tiring. Hopefully the new flamethrower Wagner along with Bard can be relied upon more in tight situations.
Am looking forward to tonight, and am getting excited all of a sudden as I look at the changes in this team in that last few weeks.
We have to play Tek sometimes, whether or not that gives you fits.
Vic can’t be the fulltime starter.
@bs_uf15bosox9be The Original Gameday; Learn to use SB Nation
Why not?
Martinez surely can play catcher everyday, but I do understand that Lowell may not be able to play everyday. So let Green fill in for Lowell now and then in some configuration, as Green seems to be a Jack of all trades!
by NG on Sep 2, 2009 3:38 PM EDT up reply actions
Because nobody can play catcher every day
The position is too physically demanding. Also, what makes you think Green is a better hitter than Tek? Both haven’t been good since the ASB, but Tek has been better.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Sep 2, 2009 3:45 PM EDT up reply actions
V-Mart's offensive stats go down when he catches. The man needs a break.
And as for Tek bashing, I appreciate him a TON every time I see the Rays catcher Navarro.
"Hating the New York Yankees is as American as apple pie, unwed mothers and cheating on your income tax." -- Mike Royko
by sox-inda-south on Sep 2, 2009 4:12 PM EDT up reply actions
Handwriting on the wall
Drugs, I see this handwriting, that is why. You seem to support the Lugos and Variteks, but we cannot win anymore with these guys. They are momentum suckers for various reasons.
Green may not be a great hitter, but I get a feeling of hitting competence with him that I not longer get with Varitek, the old man zombie-like hitter at the plate. Sorry if this offends the troops, but that is how I see Varitek now.
Reply fail.
But Martinez can’t play catcher everyday. His knees aren’t strong enough. And Green is a wholly incompetent batter—and I don’t speak from stats here even. Just watch him swing and miss at stuff way out of the zone. If he hits one, he might hit it far, but that’s a big if.
Gonzalez is doing just fine by us at the moment, and he’s got fielding competence.
Not talking about Gonzales being subbed for.
I agree totally about Gonzales, and am thanking management a thousand times for finally filling that void.
What I now want is very little Varitek at catcher and especially hitting. I would like to see Lowell play everyday, but am not sure how to do this or if he can. It has become extremely obvious to me that Mike Lowell is the key to the team’s success, and without him we will flounder again. Maybe he can be put in everyday as DH and or 3rd, and Papi can again play first when he DHs. Maybe Green can play first if Lowell must be kept out entirely, but I would like to see as close a lineup to last’s nights as can be had from now on!
by NG on Sep 2, 2009 4:08 PM EDT up reply actions
what don't you understand?
1)Martinez can’t catch every day.
2)Tek is a better hitter than Green, as bad as he is.
3)Papi at first is a disaster.
4)Lowell’s fluid in the hip problem was related to him playing too much, especially on turf.
These are facts that cannot be disputed by “feelings.” Accept them as the truth.
Keep Martinez in the lineup hititng even if
he is not catching. Use him at first or even as DH. If Varitek must be catcher, make him the backup only, but be prepared to bring on the double plays in spades with him in the line-up. I feel he is just too big a mementum sucker in his current condition. I prefer youth in the game. Can Green catch??
by NG on Sep 2, 2009 4:16 PM EDT up reply actions
Do you live in an insane asylum?
No Green can’t catch. AND HE HITS WORSE THAN TEK ANYWAY. What is your problem? Martinez is in the lineup everyday. Tek has to catch and hit when Martinez plays first. Geez.
historically
Gonzo=Green (at the plate) with a bit more power from time to time. But…I will ride out the hot streak. That way, we get too unwarranted hot streaks-Green’s earlier this season and Sea Bass’ now…;).
This does not offend the troops.
But you know what does-
Green OPS=667
Varitek OPS=747
Despite your “feeling of hitting competence” Green is significantly worse hitter.
Yep
Thank God the Sox aren’t run based on NG’s feelings.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Sep 2, 2009 4:34 PM EDT up reply actions
He'd have the video board running 2006 film on loop.
And he’d be screaming “NEVER AGAIN” as he directs the eldery players off the field and has young players checked for signs of “momentum sucking.”
@bs_uf15bosox9be The Original Gameday; Learn to use SB Nation
NG's feelings
Over the last few years, I felt that:
—Lugo had to go
—Wakefield was too old to make it through this year
—Manny was not a team player and was hurting the team’s spirit
—Varitek is too old to be able to help a team now win a championship.
Sometimes you do have to go with your gut, and if you watch ever game, your gut is probably pretty correct. The above first 3 have happened, and the Varitek situation will soon. You guys can get so stuck behind your stats that you fail to see the players from the momentum suckers anymore.
So maybe the Sox are run on my feelings, but just a little delayed!
More NG feelings
Over the last 3 years…
— You thought that the Red Sox were on the path to another 2006 type collapse.
They won the World Series one year, came within a game the next, and have a good hold on the Wild Card this year and are playing some of their best baseball of the season.
Your “gut” is always negative. That’s why people have a hard time listening to it.
Man I love that tuna casserole.
That of course should read:
came within a game of making the World Series the next.
Man I love that tuna casserole.
They most certainly were on the path to a 2006 type collapse earlier this year.
However, due to complaints and maybe just the obvious weaknesses, management acted to stop that scenario. It pays to complain when you see crap and drag. It does not pay to just blindly support what is Not working. Varitek alone will not bring down this team mostly because the moves so far may bale him out, but hopefully this will be it for him.
by NG on Sep 2, 2009 7:31 PM EDT up reply actions
So...
Lugo had to go：Every 5 year old knew that.
Wakefield was too old: And you said he should be gone. But he’s been one of our best guys and could well pitch in 6 or so days and in the playoffs.
Manny not a team player/hurting the team spirit: When did this come up? I’m gonna guess right around the time the media keyed in on it. If it was in 2007, then you run smack into the WS win. So you had a narrow window to have “felt” this without it being the same situation as Lugo—which is to say obvious shit you’re repackaging as your own.
Varitek is too old/bad: Why isn’t 38-year-old Posada? Tek is putting up better numbers than Yadier Molina and Russel Martin—are the Dodgers and Cardinals out of the race too? Catcher is a bankrupt position at the moment. Unless you’ve got a better suggestion that “destroy Martinez’ knees” or “Make NICK FUCKING GREEN catch” (and he IS worse), then your feeling is completely misguided.
I posted about Manny not running out balls
when I first posted here in 2007 or 2006. I said it was impossible to overlook this lack of hustle and then go after others of not hustling. A management nightmare. I also wrote that when Youk got into that fight with Manny, it was a sign that Manny was depressing the hustle aspect which Youk naturally brings to the team. It went against Manny’s laziness, and again was bad bad bad for team spirit.
by NG on Sep 2, 2009 7:42 PM EDT up reply actions
Okay...
Did you post about Manny carrying the Red Sox through the first round of the playoffs in ’07, too? Cuz that happened.
And the fight with Youkilis was because every time Youk walked back to the dugout he was pitching a hissy-fit, not “depressing a hustle aspect”.
Man I love that tuna casserole.
Manny is quirky...
Manny was tolerable in his antics, until he got Scott Boras as his agent.. Then he started to bring his contract and contract frustrations into the clubhouse, and then he became intolerable. Boras, I believe reenforced those feelings rather than cooling them down..
The Sox still got splatter after Manny left and was caught taking steroids, but it would had 10x worse if he was still with the club.
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