Bloody Sox Laundry - 8/30/09
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Aug 30, 2009 5:00 AM EDT
in Daily Links
39 comments
Just some quick news links today, all about the roster moves leading up to the expansion, among other topics.
Wakefield scratched - Boston Herald
And who will take his place?
Paul Byrd to Start Sunday for Red Sox - NESN.com
As I predicted. Yay, I'm learning more about baseball. Anyways, hope Wake can get through this to end the season and then get the surgery during or soon after the playoffs.
These are just a few of the moves we can expect. SoxProspects has more predictions after the jump, and we get an early look at next season's schedule.
September Reinforcements - SoxProspects.com
What to expect when the rosters expand - some of those might be voided by today's moves, but still, a good read.
Perfect ’10: NY opens, Manny Ramirez visits - BostonHerald.com
The 2010 schedule, still being finalized, has the Sox opening the regular season next April against their archrivals.
Oh, goodie, more stress when I'll be prepping for a load of AP tests.
Anderson offers take on Minors, music - MiLB.com
Cap tip to chowdah. Maybe Lars makes it up next season.
Let’s Get Trendy with the Sox - Comcast SportsNet New England
Well, at least more people are finding stat sites entertaining.
Find some links and drop them here, or just discuss whatever comes up - SoxAcumen did a great job with his lengthy contributions yesterday... just like a lawyer to submit tons of writing.
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Wakefield needs something besides surgery.
He needs to retire. The ageless search for the fountain of youth always fails, but it does seem like everyone has to learn this in their own way in life.
by NG on Aug 30, 2009 8:54 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Except that he has been, y'know, really good for us.
So shut up for once.
by USG on Aug 30, 2009 9:22 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
*spit take*
Man I love that tuna casserole.
by Bloggy on Aug 30, 2009 9:43 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hey, this is how I perceive the truth.
I don’t believe in censorship, so if you don’t like my truth, don’t listen. Your “shut up” comment adds nothing to a discussion of whether depending on such old guys is a good thing.
In case you have not noticed, Wakefield is missing lots of games (to the detriment of the team) due to just normal (maybe even light) wear and tear and not due to any specific collision or baseball incident. Does that maybe suggest something to you?? To further make my point, I still bet that Wakefield will NOT finish this season as an active Sox. Am I just a mean and/or stubborn person, or is there something to the idea that a/all forty plus year old pitchers maybe unreliable in the major leagues due to the natural aging process, never mind the knuckleball in this particular case.
by NG on Aug 30, 2009 10:08 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
And your "all old guys should retire" bit doesn't add anything to the conversation either.
Most pitchers are unreliable. Wake has started 18 games and given us 115 innings. Of those 18 starts, he’s given us a chance to win about 15 of them, he’s nearly won 6 of those games on his own, and whenever he’s pitched he’s consistently been a guy who can go out there after the pen takes a hit and gives them a night off.
He has the 4th most starts by a good margin on the team. Ahead of him is Brad Penny, who was paid 1 million more dollars and, while giving us 16 extra innings in 6 starts has had 6 terrible starts, a ton of mediocre ones, and only 2-3 really good ones. Wakefield has been better than him. And hell, our ace Josh Beckett has a tendency to randomly suck any given year due to blisters, obliques, or any of a multitude of conditions that pop up “not due to any specific collision or baseball incident”. And just this year Daisuke—all of 28 years old—has pitched 8 starts with only a couple being decent.
The other options in Junichi Tazawa and Michael Bowden have both been smacked around a fair share in their limited appearances. The FA market this coming year is thin at best, and filled with guys who—you guessed it!—are HUGE injury risks! Bedard, Harden, Duchscherer, Sheets. You name ‘em, they’ve missed the majority of a season of late. The only difference between them and Wake? They’re gonna want more money.
Age brings frailty, sure, but in all sports youth is never, ever a sure thing. And even with his perhaps limited starts, Wakefield always manages to outperform the 4 million we pay him and then some. Hell, his value isn’t even expressed fully by numbers—how many times have we seen the Knuckler completely derail a team for a whole series? He may only give us so many starts in any given year, but so long as he’s willing to give them to us at such a low price, we’d be absolutely crazy not to take them. If he wants to retire next year, having made the All Star team, than all the more power to him. He’s had a prolific career with the Sox and has earned the right to end it on a high note. But make no mistake—it’ll be the Red Sox loss if he can perform the same as he has these last two years.
by USG on Aug 30, 2009 10:55 AM EDT up reply actions 6 recs
Wow, didn't read your comment at all and said the same thing.
Rec’ing this as hard as I can. This may be what needs to be on Wake’s plaque in the Sox’ HoF.
@bs_uf15bosox9be The Original Gameday; Learn to use SB Nation
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Aug 30, 2009 4:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Rec'd
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Aug 30, 2009 4:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Pitchers in general are unreliable, NG.
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by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Aug 30, 2009 4:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sure, when he's been healthy
How many starting pitchers are really good when they’re on the DL for two months? And he’s a knuckleballer — he’s not exactly straining the physical limitations of the human body to do what he does. It’d be great if he could give us one more year, but even if he does come back next season, I guarantee you he won’t make more than 25 starts, which means we’ll need another starter to replace him anyway.
I think we need to accept that our rotation next year will consist of Beckett, Lester, Wake for half to 2/3 of the season, Buchholz, and maybe Tazawa. And maybe it’ll be Bowden who steps up when Wake gets hurt again.
by RSNexile on Aug 30, 2009 10:45 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I wouldn't expect much from Tazawa or Bowden
Neither have high ceilings. Let’s hope Buchholz has turned the corner and Dice-K is healthy next year. If that’s the case, Beckett, Lester, Buchholz, Dice-K, and Wake is a very good rotation.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Aug 30, 2009 10:55 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Above Mid-to-back-of-the-rotation/middle relief
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Aug 30, 2009 12:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Which is what they'd be expected to be
Beckett and Lester are our aces, Wake would be #3 until he gets hurt, Buch would be #4 with a promotion to #3 when Wake gets hurt, and Tazawa and Bowden would be #5/#4 and #5. It’s not a great rotation, and it’s actually quite a poor rotation unless Buch pitches more like he did last night and less like he has in most of his starts, but what else do we have unless the Sox can find someone better in free agency?
by RSNexile on Aug 30, 2009 1:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
it's not a poor rotation
unless Beckett pitches as he has for the last 3 games. When healthy and right Beckett, Lester, Wake, Dice-K and Buccholz is a good rotation. Very good.
by Buzzy on Aug 30, 2009 1:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Forgot about Dice-K
But it’s not a good rotation by any means. If Buch pitches the way he has for most of his starts, he’s a #5 starter. Bowden and Tazawa are back-of-the-rotation starters. And Dice-K is a #3 starter when he’s good, but if he pitches next year the way he has this year, he’s not even a #5 starter on a bad minor league team.
Which leaves you with two reliable starters. That may have worked in the days of “Spahn and Sain and pray for rain” or in the NL of today with Lincecum and Cain and pray for rain, but it doesn’t get you to the playoffs in the AL East. If Dice-K doesn’t come back strong next year and Buch doesn’t step up his game and show he deserves a spot in the rotation, it’s absolutely a poor rotation.
by RSNexile on Aug 30, 2009 3:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Man, I really need to read all the comments.
And Buch’s been really good for about a month now. Dice-K was out of shape, and should rebound to somewhere around 2007, maybe better, depending on how much of 2008 wasn’t luck.
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by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Aug 30, 2009 4:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Two problems:
1) Sample size again. Any pitcher can have a good month. Buch’s year, however, combined with his performance last year and the fact that he’s nowhere near as aggressive in his approach in the majors as he was in AAA indicate that he still has some things to work out. I think you and I both expect him to develop into a top-of-the-rotation starter, but the best we can really hope for next year is for him to be a solid #3.
2) We hope Dice-K will return to form — which would make him a solid #3 starter. But you can’t count on him, particularly if his earlier comments about the way the Sox have treated him are indicative of his attitude toward preparing for the regular season. And you and I both know he was very lucky last year.
Somewhat unrelated, Dice-K is why I think all MLB contracts should have a “punch Scott Boras in the face” clause — if the agent pulls a BS comparison out of his rear end in order to inflate his client’s contract demands, all fans of the team that signed the client get to punch Scott Boras in the face during the all-star break and the World Series, regardless of whether or not Boras is the agent of the player in question.
by RSNexile on Aug 30, 2009 6:14 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Giving this a bigtime Canadian Rec for the somewhat unrelated 3rd point.
I think I’d like a suplex thrown in there, too.
Man I love that tuna casserole.
by Bloggy on Aug 30, 2009 6:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's all I ever expect Buch to really turn out to be actually.
A #2/3 pitcher. That said, his pitches have looked really good of late, and he’s commanding them pretty well – he definitely looks MUCH better than last year.
Dice-K was very lucky last year, but the underlying peripherals didn’t say he sucked, but that he was pitching average-ish. Those comments were supposedly twisted by the reporter, and even if they weren’t, I don’t think that was really an issue – he wanted to throw more pitches, which would probably have gotten him in shape better. Perhaps his body is just too used to the Japanese system to stay in shape on American pitch counts.
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by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Aug 30, 2009 8:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Done
Sometimes he’s been good, sometimes he’s sucked. Overall his performance has been ok for a back-of-the-rotation starter. Do I think he’ll get better? Absolutely, but you’d have to be a fool to expect him to make a giant leap by next season.
by RSNexile on Aug 30, 2009 6:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
wow you are totally wrong
buch is gonna be 26 next year, and he did make a huge improvement from last year. hes even made improvements in the past month or two. i expect a breakout year next year, like lester last year. then with a beckett extension, we have the best top three in baseball, nevermind dice-k who will still be around.
by revived0103 on Aug 30, 2009 7:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
who has a good rotation?
All I was mentioning was when healthy and “right,” not as of right now with the health and “not rightness” of some of our starters. Before 3 games ago, is their anyone in the AL you would take as your 1-2 over ours? How many 3’s are better than Wake has been this year when he pitches? You use terms like poor. Look at the Yankees rotation. Burnett and Joba have astronomical FIPs. And they have Mitre. Who else in the AL? Maybe Detroit? Texas? There are perhaps 2-3 rotations in the entire AL that you can make a case for-so you need to redefine “poor.”
by Buzzy on Aug 30, 2009 8:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Forgot Dice-K.
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by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Aug 30, 2009 4:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Where would the Sox be right now without Wakefield this season?
If the Sox hadn’t had any contributions from Wakefield at all this year, where would they be right now?
If nothing else, think back to the Jackie Robinson game against Oakland—-the one where Wakefield pitched a complete game the night after the 11-inning ordeal when Dice-K went down. Say someone else had to start that game—-Bowden, perhaps, or Tazawa, or even Smoltz. Where would the Sox be right now? You’d have probably had to send relievers out there to work their fourth consecutive day, and then on to the DL. The early season heroics of the bullpen, which saved the Sox’s bacon in multiple games, would have been crippled right out of the gate. (Or they could have tried to cobble the remaining innings from the rest of the starters, and risked even more significant injuries.)
Also, don’t forget that he has a year-to-year deal, with the option going [I]to the Sox[/I]. They are the ones who keep choosing to bring him back. Perhaps it’s because they believe that even with all the time lost due to injury, he’s actually worth the $4 million investment.
Personally, considering all the money the Sox have flushed down the toilet this year on Lugo, Penny, and Smoltz, it’s no surprise that they’re willing to renew Wakefield’s contract each year. It’s relatively little money, and the return on it is damn good.
by lone1c on Aug 30, 2009 12:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
$4 mil is a steal for Wake.
Especially when you compare it to the $80mil the Skanks are giving Burnett, who is due to go on the DL in 3….2…..
Man I love that tuna casserole.
by Bloggy on Aug 30, 2009 12:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hey, if Wake can make even ten solid starts, he’s well worth $4M. But he’s never going to make 30 starts again, and at some point you have to worry about what his quality of life is going to be after he retires. If I were him, I’d give it one more year at most.
by RSNexile on Aug 30, 2009 1:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's not like he's exerting himself.
He’d need the surgery even if he wasn’t coming back.
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by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Aug 30, 2009 4:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's not just about what he does on the field
The lifestyle a MLB player leads during the season isn’t healthy. Have you ever had to do a lot of travelling in a relatively short time span? Multiple long flights just a few days apart, staying in lots of different hotels, having to adjust to different time zones, trying to maintain some kind of healthy sleep pattern — it’s a recipe for catching every illness that’s going around even if you just do it for a couple of weeks, and they have to do it for six months. The longer you do it, the harder it is for your body to recover from the kind of injuries and wear and tear you experience as a matter of course, and MLB players have a lot more of that sort of thing to deal with than the rest of us.
Besides, if he’s breaking down enough to need surgery when he isn’t exerting himself, that’s a pretty good clue he’s getting to the point where he’s too old to do this anymore. The Sox would be fools not to offer Wake his contract for next year, but he’d be a fool to keep taking it much longer.
by RSNexile on Aug 30, 2009 6:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He's been hurt for a couple years though, and he's been playing through it.
He can be next year’s Smoltz if need be, to get him healthy. Hell, if he needs it, he could be a Fenway-only pitcher.
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by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Aug 30, 2009 8:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Smoltz is done
We definitely don’t want Wake to be next year’s Smoltz — Smoltz sucked this year. But if he can be next year’s Wake, I’m all for him doing whatever he needs to do — including being a Fenway-only pitcher if it comes to that — if it means he gives us 10-15 solid starts for his $4M, provided that whatever he needs to do doesn’t throw off the rest of the rotation and roster. And as valuable as Wake is, he may not be valuable enough to take a spot on the roster if we need another arm in the bullpen or another bat off the bench and he can only give us 10-15 starts.
by RSNexile on Sep 1, 2009 10:11 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I meant he could come in halfway through the year and give us a starter to rest a couple guys.
I’m not going to argue about Smoltz again.
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by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Sep 1, 2009 5:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Just to point it out
Wakefield has the 3d highest VORP for pitchers , behind Lester and Beckett, respectively. Notably he is ahead of papelbon, bucholtz, okajima and ramirez. So take what you will from that.
by Rocket Ship Science on Aug 31, 2009 9:42 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Starters will always have a higher VORPs than relievers.
Well, so long as they’re above 0, at least. The difference in IP makes a huge difference.
by USG on Aug 31, 2009 1:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Besides, didn't VORP get replaced with WAR a year or two ago?
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by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Aug 31, 2009 8:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I know it did on the Millenium Falcon.
Man I love that tuna casserole.
by Bloggy on Aug 31, 2009 8:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
VORP isn't as transparent as WAR.
There’s no saying what the actual calculation is, so it gets less credit than WAR. No reason to say it’s worse, but there’s also no reason to give it as much credit when it’s not open to scrutiny.
by USG on Sep 1, 2009 2:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Exactly.
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by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Sep 1, 2009 5:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
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