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Sox offered Buchholz, Bard and Bowden for Felix Hernandez

Oh boy, this would have been a huge trade:

The Seattle Times reports that, according to sources, the Red Sox offered a list of eight players, from which the Mariners could choose any five in exchange for Felix Hernandez. The list reportedly included:

Clay Buchholz
Daniel Bard
Michael Bowden
Justin Masterson
Nick Hagadone
Josh Reddick
Yamaico Navarro
Felix Doubront

The Mariners, however, didn't feel that deal was adequate enough to trade their 23-year-old star. Then the Sox tried to negotiate a three-way deal with the Mariners and Padres that would have sent Adrian Gonzalez to Seattle, Brandon Morrow to San Diego and Hernandez to Boston, with prospects flying every which way. The Mariners also turned down that deal, according to the report.

Whoa. The Mariners could have chosen five of those prospects? Personally, I would have gone with Buchholz, Bard, Bowden, Hagadone and Reddick. That would have been a ridiculous haul for Seattle. While King Felix is an amazing pitcher (and just 23), it must have been really hard to turn that down.

Interesting, though, that a few players were untouchable: Lars Anderson, Casey Kelly and Ryan Westmoreland, to name a few that are certainly better than the Yamaico Navarros and Felix Doubronts of that group. I guess the Red Sox aren't swayed by Lars' tough season.

Poll
If you were the Mariners, would you accept the following trade: Clay Buchholz, Michael Bowden, Daniel Bard, Josh Reddick and Nick Hagadone for Felix Hernandez?
Yes
1907 votes
No
302 votes

2209 votes | Poll has closed

Comment 84 comments  |  0 recs  | 

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I'd pass on it, honestly, if I were the Mariners.

First off: Felix is a done deal. He is an ace now, and for years to come.

Second off: He’s young, and has 2 1/2 years left under team control.

Third: He’s one of their big market draws.

We’d have to give away a lot of talent (my guess is Buchholz, Bard, Bowden, Reddick, Navarro) but we would’ve gotten a really fantastic pitcher out of it for 2+ seasons (more, likely, since we have the cash to sign him to a significant long term deal). I’m not surprised we did this. King Felix is one of the few players in the league worth emptying a system for.

I think what’s possibly most notable about this is the two names not on the list: Westmoreland and Kelly

by Ben Buchanan on Aug 3, 2009 3:35 PM EDT reply actions  

Tazawa too

But I think that’s a contract thing.

by Ben Buchanan on Aug 3, 2009 3:35 PM EDT up reply actions  

Odds are none of our prospects becomes as good as Felix Hernandez, however the Mariners as a team would have improved and benefited greatly, in my opinion.

"You know you're having a bad day when the fifth inning rolls around and they drag the warning track." - Mike Flanagan, Baltimore Orioles pitcher, 1992.

by SoxDevil on Aug 5, 2009 1:47 PM EDT up reply actions  

I'm not surprised by the Mariners at all.

Felix is way too young and proven to trade off for other prospects. He’s a good 1 1/2 years younger than Clay and is years ahead of him with experience/talent.

Now is defintely not the time to trade Felix – for anybody.

Introducing the new 2008 Big 12 Football Champions: OU, UT*, TT*, and MU*!
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by mystman995 on Aug 3, 2009 3:43 PM EDT reply actions  

True

But, like I said, NOW is not the time to trade him. The 2011 trade deadline is when he should expect to ship out.

Introducing the new 2008 Big 12 Football Champions: OU, UT*, TT*, and MU*!
Now Introducing the new 2009 Big 12 Baseball Tournament Champions: UT, KSU*, BU*, and MU*!

by mystman995 on Aug 4, 2009 11:49 AM EDT up reply actions  

Why not?

He should be a more valuable trade chip the more years he has under team control. If the return package is worth it, trade him. Well, with his name recognition, you’d probably have to get something in return that’s a bit beyond fair.

by Sky Kalkman on Aug 4, 2009 1:58 PM EDT up reply actions  

Theoretically, yes that is true...

but I think Felix’s value is so high that if he is traded in the next year the Mariners would basically be getting some sort of maximum package for him. I think teams would have to give up so much to get him now or in a year that there might not be any difference between the packages.

"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw

by BTLove on Aug 4, 2009 5:27 PM EDT up reply actions  

I would imagine the Mariners will try and extend him this offseason first

And only if they can’t then they start seriously entertaining offers. Even then they still have a good year to explore their options and still get a good haul.

I wonder if we can take Silva off their hands as a salary dump to offset the Felix cost.

by South Coast Ghost on Aug 3, 2009 3:45 PM EDT reply actions  

No thanks to Silva.

But I don’t see Seattle resigning this kid. He’s amazing to say the least. He’ll demand money like Barry Zito.

"Hating the New York Yankees is as American as apple pie, unwed mothers and cheating on your income tax." -- Mike Royko

by sox-inda-south on Aug 3, 2009 4:56 PM EDT up reply actions  

Why the fuck is that? When Barry Zito was going in FA, our former GM

Bill Bavasi actually offered him 99M for 6 years. But the Giants one up him by giving him 118 for 7 years. Seattle is not a small market team. It does not have a history of not offering market level compensation for players. Contratry to your belief, the Seattle Mariners are owned by a conglomorate of billionares from Nintendo, Microsoft and other high tech firms in the local area. It does not lack money, and it DOES have the financial resource to compete to the Boston and the NY market. It spends money on players, but whether it spends money wisely on players is another matter (see Carlos Silva and Richie Sexson,) and if Felix were to leave, it’s not going to be about compensation, it’s about his own will to test FA.

by brian_sun on Aug 3, 2009 6:56 PM EDT up reply actions  

I think you both fail to realize the change in Seattle's management.

The GM is not even a year into his job. We don’t know how they will go after players from here on out.

"Hating the New York Yankees is as American as apple pie, unwed mothers and cheating on your income tax." -- Mike Royko

by sox-inda-south on Aug 3, 2009 10:01 PM EDT up reply actions  

He was the worst GM in baseball.

Even worse than Bowden.

"You know you're having a bad day when the fifth inning rolls around and they drag the warning track." - Mike Flanagan, Baltimore Orioles pitcher, 1992.

by SoxDevil on Aug 5, 2009 1:48 PM EDT up reply actions  

He shouldn't reach FA.

It’s in both the M’s and his interests to sign away his arb eligible years plus first couple years of FA, a la Lester.

Manny ain't the only bad man.

by tommy.otm on Aug 4, 2009 7:00 PM EDT up reply actions  

Not sure I'd sign away any FA years at any discount if I were Felix.

It’s maybe worth doing when you haven’t even reached arbitration, because there’s significant injury risk to actually get to the seasons where you make your first $10M and are set for life. But Felix had a near $4M payday this year and will get a larger payment this off-season. He’s close enough to a huge pay day that it’s probably worth the risk. For Lester, however, he’s still a couple years from his first arbitration season.

by Sky Kalkman on Aug 5, 2009 9:10 AM EDT up reply actions  

I think signing a $50-$60 million dollar deal now

and setting his grand kids and great-grand kids up for life is worth it. If I was his financial advisor, I’d have him sign a four or five year deal now and hit FA at 27 or 28. There’s enough risk for an arm injury, especially for a 23 year-old approaching 900 major league innings, that guys should get their first big pay day as soon as they can.

Manny ain't the only bad man.

by tommy.otm on Aug 5, 2009 10:06 PM EDT up reply actions  

really?

smells a lot like Pedro to me…

"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw

by BTLove on Aug 4, 2009 1:50 AM EDT up reply actions  

We certainly got a good look at him...

…when he one-hit us on the occasion of Dice-K’s Fenway debut.

THAT'S the money you could be saving with Geico

by DJDP23 on Aug 3, 2009 4:10 PM EDT reply actions  

I am kind of dubious on this..

  Hernandez is worth alot, but he isn’t worth 4 of the top prospects and a starting pitcher in the Sox organization. If a trade of Hernandez for Buchholz and two prospects was made, it would had been lopsided. If the trade was Hernandez for Buchholz, Bard, Bowden and Reddick, the trade would had been called “The Revenge of the Heath Slocumb trade”…

  The Mariners are kind of a tight lipped organization right now, so I would take this with a grain of salt unless a Boston sports reporter can find sources to verify this. The Sox may want Hernandez, but they wanted Gonzalez even more. I can see the Sox seriously inquiring about Russell Branyan.

by superferret on Aug 3, 2009 4:41 PM EDT reply actions  

If this trade scenario was made for Halladay..

The Jays would had taken it. I don’t see the Sox offering the moon like this to anyone for one MLB all star, Multiple Cy Young winner or MVP

by superferret on Aug 3, 2009 4:43 PM EDT reply actions  

The difference between Halladay and Hernandez

Is 9 years in age and $11 million. King Felix is under team control until 2012. I can’t see Theo emptying the farm for a 32-year old; a 23-year old ace is another matter. It’s smart to do whatever you can to get young, cost-controlled pitchers like Hernandez (and Beckett). I don’t know if the rumored deal is tru or not. But, it fits the Sox’ MO. They don’t want to pay a premium for past performance.

I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.

by Drugs Delaney on Aug 3, 2009 5:51 PM EDT up reply actions  

Hernandez is not worth..

A starting pitcher, a reliever that can throw on the paint 100mph fast balls and a sinker sidearm reliever plus two top prospects. Halladay is not worth this.. Hell the Sox offered the Twins four players for Santana

Hernandez is a good pitcher, but he has had control issues, which is understandable, given he is still young for a starting pitcher. Hernandez is getting close to $4 million a year which is not that cheap, even though it is a bargain.

  This is sort of the dream deal that Ricciardi was looking at for Halladay.

I can see Theo and the FO wanting Gonzalez more than Hernandez at this moment. I also don’t see the Mariners also refusing 5 players for Hernandez. I guess they don’t need two 100 mph pitchers on their staff, (when Morrow is healthy) to disrupt the feng shui.

  I don’t see Theo doing this in a mid season trade. I can possibly see this, in an off season trade and there is a huge hole in the starting rotation.

  Personally I think the Sox would offer Daisuke in any talks/package with the Mariners for Hernandez.

by superferret on Aug 3, 2009 6:28 PM EDT up reply actions  

Why the fuck do we want a 100MPH guy in the pen when King Felix is

touching 99MPH in the 9th inning against Boston last year? King Felix has a sick curve ball, + change up and a 92, 93MPH 2 seamer with a downward plane movement that makes opposing hitter pound the ball on the ground like Chien-Ming Wang does in his best days couple years ago. But his best pitch is his slider. It’s a Brad Lidge level slider. Seattle didn’t allow him to use it in his 1st 2 professional seasons because of the worry on the effect on his elbow. What the fuck is so rare about a 100MPH guy? We already have Morrow throwing 100, Lowe throwing 99 and Ardsma touching 98. Hernandez is immensely more valuable than Halladay. A 23 yo ace just come into his own earning way less than a 32 yo ace with only 1.5 more seasons under team control. Also the risk associated with extending a 23 yo pitcher through his 28 yo season is much lower than the risk of extending a 32 yo pitcher through his 37 yo season. I am glad you are not Theo, because if you are the GM, you can’t really grasp the value of a player is not only in a player’s talent, but also in his age, compensation level, years of service and position. You don’t seem to understand the factor of age and compensation level in a player. So of course you are not a GM.

by brian_sun on Aug 3, 2009 6:49 PM EDT up reply actions  

calm down...

I was kidding about the need of having a bunch of hard throwers. okay?

Hernandez is definitely in the top ranks of starting pitcher in MLB, I am not denying that. However he is not worth 5 top of the line players, nor is he worth 3 or 4 very good pitchers, with Masterson being the only question mark of caliber.

If the trade was Hernandez for let’s say Buchholz, Bowden and Reddick, it would had been lopsided for the Mariners.

I don’t see the Mariners turning down a deal like this, three top Sox prospects and two pitchers already in throwing in the Major Leagues for Hernandez. That is lopsided for Hernandez or for Halladay.

Anyway I think the story was wrong, because the Sox seemed much more interested in a deal with San Diego for Gonzalez, then selling the farm for Hernandez.

by superferret on Aug 3, 2009 7:07 PM EDT up reply actions  

You still didn't grasp the concept of why Felix is more valuable than Halladay in a trade.

Base on RESULTS alone, there isn’t a pitcher in baseball that’s more valuable than Roy Halladay. Stuff wise? Felix is better. But when you factor into age, compensation level, number of years till FA. there is no question why Felix is more valuable than Halladay. That’s why if it’s a 3 for 1 or 4 for 1 deal for Halladay, then for Felix is a 5 for 1 deal. Basically, what you are buying is Felix’s 23, 24, 25 yo season + 2.5 years of negotiation rights to extend him through his prime year. Think Roy Halladay’s 27, 28, 29, 30, 31 yo season. That 2.5 years of exclusive negotiating right is also worth something. That is why the 5 for 1 deal is just a starting point proposed by Theo. Honestly, Seattle make the right decision in this case, because it doesn’t need to trade Felix now. They could trade him next year and get close to the same return. 1 extra year of Felix is probably going to worth 5 wins.

by brian_sun on Aug 3, 2009 7:20 PM EDT up reply actions  

whatever..

I never said Felix Hernandez is worth less than Roy Halladay, I have been commenting on the Seattle Times blog post. I find it dubious for the Sox to offer this to any player, Felix Hernandez, Greinke or Alberto Pujols. I wrote this is the type of deal that the Toronto’s GM was looking for, I didn’t write that the Sox should had offered it to the Jays for Halladay.

  Before you give Felix another congratulatory reach around. He is still young, he has had control issues in the past, and dealing with a Manic Depressive Boston Media are new things for a starting pitcher.

by superferret on Aug 3, 2009 7:39 PM EDT up reply actions  

I found this topic is as silly as whether the Red Sox

deserved to win the 2004 WS because David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez tested positive in the 2003 season for using PEDs. It’s a non-issue outside of NYC. This is a non-issue, it really is.

by brian_sun on Aug 3, 2009 7:45 PM EDT up reply actions  

In terms of worth

Lincecum and Greinke are both worth more than King Felix. Lincecum hasn’t even hit arbitration yet and Greinke has one of the most favorable deals in the league.

by Gnick on Aug 3, 2009 7:51 PM EDT up reply actions  

Probably true,

but Felix is right on their heels. He is one of the top 3 most valuable pitchers in the game. He is absurdly valuable; much, much more so than Roy Halladay.

"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw

by BTLove on Aug 4, 2009 1:55 AM EDT up reply actions  

But Felix has the better stuff among them, and it's not even close

Plus, Lincecum plays in the NL.

"Hey we got a lot in common here... I'm gonna rape you"

by MerryGoByeBye on Aug 4, 2009 3:17 PM EDT up reply actions  

I wouldn't offer that much for Greinke

He’s a bit of a headcase. I’d need to see another season of stellar performance.

"You know you're having a bad day when the fifth inning rolls around and they drag the warning track." - Mike Flanagan, Baltimore Orioles pitcher, 1992.

by SoxDevil on Aug 5, 2009 1:51 PM EDT up reply actions  

I’ve already made clear my disgust for referring to any prospect as “untouchable.” Its absolutely inane.

"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw

by BTLove on Aug 4, 2009 1:57 AM EDT up reply actions  

This story not credible

I don’t believe Sox would have bled the farm system like this for anybody, even King Felix. Many other sources have said Bard in particular was off limits and never included in any offer.

by Sophist on Aug 3, 2009 6:03 PM EDT reply actions  

WTF?

King Felix is younger than 2 years younger than Buchholz, 1 year younger than Bard, 1 year younger than Masterson, same age as Bowden, and 10 months older than Reddick. This is already his 5th season in the majors, and he is just blossoming into an ace this year. He’s making 3.8M this year. He has 2.5 more season under club control. You are trading for his 23, 24, 25 yo season + 2.5 years of negotiation rights to buy out his 26, 27, 28, 29 season. What part of you DON’T understand he’s more valuable than 1.5 years of a 32 yo Roy Halladay? What part of you don’t understand for a pitcher like King Felix, Bard will be very available, because no one in their sane mind will even compare a 1st year reliever like Bard to King Felix. We are talking about the King, not just any pitcher in the game. You can say the King is even more valuable than Tim Lincecum because his pitches are better, his body type projects better, and he gets results from a tougher league. What part of you don’t understand he’s the #1 pitching commodity in all baseball now. The only one who’s more valuable than the King is the 3rd baseman in Tampa, because of the ridiculous cheap contract he signed 1 month after he got to the majors. Got it? There is NO one single prospect in the Boston system that’s more valuable than the King. There is NO one single player in the whole Boston roster that’s more valuable than the King. Talent + age + current compensation level + position determine his value, not just talent alone.

by brian_sun on Aug 3, 2009 6:36 PM EDT up reply actions  

For a guy who's from the Seattle area, Lincecum is a local favorite.

We have no reason to bash him. But there is a reason why he’s drafted #10, and it’s because of his slight build. This is his 2nd year, the results are definitely spectacular. But it remains to be seen how his arm will hold up in year 3 ,4, 5, 6, 7. Tell me you really want a guy with a build like this over the King?

by brian_sun on Aug 3, 2009 7:02 PM EDT up reply actions  

at first i though this was a gay lincecum appreciation

but a pitcher doesnt need to be ripped. Pedro was really skinny early on, with little toothpick legs.

by revived0103 on Aug 3, 2009 7:07 PM EDT up reply actions  

No, pitchers don't need to be ripped to be great.

But if projectable body types don’t play into scouting, and ultimately into drafting decision, Tim Lincecum would’ve gone to the Dodgers in #4 instead of Clayton Kershaw, to the Mariners in #5 instead of Brandon Morrow. Andrew Miller was still a higher ceiling prospect at #8 than Tim Lincecum at that time. So it’s understandable why Detroit took Miller instead of Lincecum. But you bet the Dodgers and the Mariners took great consideration in projectable body types when they made their draft choices. For the 20 teams that drafted after #10, how many of them will take Lincecum over Kershaw or Morrow if given the choice at that time? Hard to say, but projectable body types undoubtedly will play in drafting decisions.

by brian_sun on Aug 3, 2009 7:27 PM EDT up reply actions  

I thought that Lincecum’s delivery actually protected his arm because he used more of his body.

by Gnick on Aug 4, 2009 12:24 AM EDT up reply actions  

Yes, but it's still violent.

Lots of movement. Seems like if his body messes up a little, of he becomes less flexible with age, then his arm becomes pretty vulnerable.

by bdalebs on Aug 4, 2009 1:53 AM EDT up reply actions  

Just look at Bard's work against the A's and O's.

No one is comparing Bard to Hernandez. However Tito is using him more and more as 8th Inning bridge to a closer in a non save situtations. He is throwing pitchers that are flummoxing batters. Sox fans see him as definitely a future closer, if Papelbon (or to many when Papelbon) leaves the Sox for free agency.

Second, as the Texas Ranger learn after a couple years with Alex Rodriguez under contract. Baseball is a team sport. One player can’t win division titles.. The Mariners are better this year, even though they shot themselves in the foot with the Eric Bedard deal..

  Felix Hernandez is worth alot, but not the entire crown jewels of the Sox farm system, (with Masterson as a very tarnish jewel)

by superferret on Aug 3, 2009 7:24 PM EDT up reply actions  

Felix Hernandez as a starting pitcher is a 5+ win player. Daniel Bard as a reliever

is a +1 win player, even if he’s a future closer, at most, he’s a +2 win player. The position difference is huge between starters and relievers.

The Erik Bedard deal was made by the previous GM, and he’s fired now. It did set the Seattle Mariners farm system back a few year, but the current GM, Jack Zdurienzk is slowly building that back up through trades and draft.

by brian_sun on Aug 3, 2009 7:32 PM EDT up reply actions  

Agreed.

For the record though, most (maybe 75%) of the users on here were against a Halladay trade for the rumored price. Given the option to trade that package for Hernandez, I think everyone would’ve been on board, because we would be stealing from y’all.

by bdalebs on Aug 3, 2009 7:44 PM EDT up reply actions  

I don't believe this at all

sounds like bull spit and unlike Theo

Sox need another lefty in the pen, not named Lopez
Sox need a utility guy prefer one with speed
Sign Matt Holliday in 2010
Dice-K will return, and he will be very good.

by gizmosandy on Aug 3, 2009 6:59 PM EDT reply actions  

I voted no

because King Felix is probably in the top three or five most valuable players in the majors, for a few reasons: His talent (obviously), his age, and his affordability/team control. I don’t really believe the M’s listened seriously, I mean can you imagine the Giants listening to offers for Lincecum? Sure the five prospects would have been great, but none of them are a sure thing. God I wish Buchholz was even close to King Felix in results.

by revived0103 on Aug 3, 2009 7:01 PM EDT reply actions  

People are overvaluing King Felix

Sure he seems to finally have put everything together in order to become an ace, but he’s going to get incredibly expensive in two years. He most definitely is not in the top three to five most valuable players in the majors, as suggested. Off the top of my head Longoria, HanRam, Justin Upton, Pujols, Wright, Braun, Lincecum, Adam Jones, Reyes, Greinke, Sizemore, and Mauer probably all have more value.

by Gnick on Aug 3, 2009 7:56 PM EDT reply actions  

Hmm

Many to all of the guys you mention are listed higher in fangraph’s trade value list. My own view is that Braun, Jones, Reyes, Sizemore do not have more value. Pujols is the best player in baseball, but you can’t empty the farm for a player that old-it leaves you with too big a hole in the almost near term. As for the rest, Mauer will hit the market soon, HanRam, Longoria, Lincecum and maybe Uption do probably have more value. Greinke perhaps, but I am not sure I would throw the farm at a guy with his past problems. Just because many of these guys are “listed” as better values does not make them better players to have. Also recall that Buchholz is #38 on that list. Personally, factoring age and contract, the strongest cases can be made for Lincecum, Upton, HanRam, Longoria. That is a pretty select list. I don’t think people are overating Hernandez-he is 23 and already an ace and can still grow into being a better pitcher. But, that is a lot of players to offer.

by Buzzy on Aug 3, 2009 8:13 PM EDT up reply actions  

yikes!

you’d rather have an unproven outfielder in Adam Jones who probably doesn’t even have 30 HR power, you’d rather have David Wright who can’t put up numbers without massive protection, you’d rather have Sizemore who is hitting .230 this year with about a .320 OBP (thats Big Papi territory)? I’ll agree that guys like Mauer, Pujols, Upton, Greinke and Longoria are on the top of the list too, but Felix is right up there with them. I may have overvalued him SLIGHTLY, because he is not in the top three. But top five is not ridiculous. I think you are overvaluing some of those guys.

by revived0103 on Aug 4, 2009 5:31 PM EDT up reply actions  

King Felix is worth the farm

He is a dominating #1 who can handle big market AL lineups. I am assuming this rumor is more rumor than truth bc I just dont see how Seattle can turn down AG + prospects v. keeping Felix and finishing 2nd every season to the Angels.

Maybe I am wrong, but the trade seems fair for each team. Felix is worth that haul, Seattle, a team in contention, gets a power 1B who is cheap + young arms and SD gets young cost controlled players with a potentially high upside.

I think that Bard is great, but to ill pack his bags and drive from LA to Boston and then to the airport if the Sox can get King Felix in the rotation.

What cracks me up is if Theo could of pulled this off, he still kept three very solid pitching prospects in Kelly, Pimental and Tazawa, plus Westmoreland. So the farm would still have a few players left.

by SoxAcumen on Aug 3, 2009 8:31 PM EDT reply actions  

I think it would have been a coup

I’d still make that trade in a second.

"You know you're having a bad day when the fifth inning rolls around and they drag the warning track." - Mike Flanagan, Baltimore Orioles pitcher, 1992.

by SoxDevil on Aug 5, 2009 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions  

Age

the most important thing here is that King Felix is 23. That is a huge difference compared to Halladay. Well, it would be an interesting deal, and give the Sox a 1-2-3 of guys all under 30 (Lester and Hernandez way under) that could not be topped. It is risky (in the economics definition of risk) in that if Hernandez got hurt, then it is 5 players for none (the risk distribution issue) but sometime you take such risks for special, young players.

by Buzzy on Aug 3, 2009 9:05 PM EDT reply actions  

I find it hard to believe that Theo would trade that much ordnance for any one player.

King Felix would probably be the guy, but again, after a payout like that, the team is one freak injury away from total disaster. I can’t see Theo trading like 20 years of (potential) production from prospects for 2.5 of Felix.

"It's just a tiny little nick, but it hurts when I get champagne in there."
- Jason Bay, on getting spiked scoring the winning run in ALDS Game Four.

by 0157H7 on Aug 3, 2009 11:53 PM EDT reply actions  

That's assuming we couldn't sign him...

But yeah, I get what you mean. Total value of the prospects could easily eclipse Felix, esp. if he starts getting paid more and more.

by bdalebs on Aug 4, 2009 12:00 AM EDT up reply actions  

Feliz is literlly untouchable.

Many people around here have claimed that some of ou guys are “untouchable”. Bard, Buch, Lars or whomever. But I think Felix might actually be untouchable. Seattle cannot trade the guy. He is too good and too young. The team has money and they will resign him for a lot of money. It would be like if someone offered us a hit load of prospects for Pedroia. Even if the guys were worth more than Pedey, we just could not trade the guy.

"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw

by BTLove on Aug 4, 2009 2:03 AM EDT reply actions  

Only 6 minutes after saying it's "inane" to do so...

BTLove gives in to the dark side. :)

Yeah, yeah, it’s all about context and he’s not a prospect, yadda, yadda, yadda.

by bdalebs on Aug 4, 2009 3:07 AM EDT up reply actions  

When I say it, I actually mean that he is untouchable. Not “untouchable” in that we would trade him for someone good, but untouchable in that Seattle would be crazy to trade the guy.

"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw

by BTLove on Aug 4, 2009 1:10 PM EDT up reply actions  

It really

Just comes down to a bird in the hand is worth xx in the bush philosophy. Personally I would’ve been happy giving all that away for Felix. He’s young, he’s brilliant and right now, he’s cheap…simple as that. Then again I was the guy on this site a few years ago who constantly got ripped for wanting Johan Santana and the Mets stole him for essentially a handful of magic beans.

by sydneysox on Aug 4, 2009 2:11 AM EDT reply actions  

Well, see, here's the problem with the analogy:

Theo’s started breeding the birds, so he no longer needs the bush. He also seems to have figured out a Willy-Wonka-like way of finding out if the eggs are good or bad, and he gets the most out of each that he possibly can.

by bdalebs on Aug 4, 2009 3:10 AM EDT up reply actions  

And a problem with the Santana comment:

Santana is older, costs plenty more, and would’ve cost us a much more ML ready Jon Lester who’s pushing closer and closer to equaling Santana in quality while being wrapped up for a long time for less money.

This proposed trade has 1 fully ML ready prospect in Daniel Bard, who I think is the only one on the list who’s a sure thing. I think Reddick and Buck are both going to be great, but they’re not sure things. I’d do this deal. I wouldn’t do the old Santana deals.

by Ben Buchanan on Aug 4, 2009 3:30 AM EDT up reply actions  

All humans are fallable and

can get hurt or worse. Anytime you risk 3 or more good-ability-potential humans for one, you run the real danger that that one will get hurt and you are tripled, or is it really quadrupled, screwed? Not a good risk unless you do not need the three or really 2 of the three.

by NG on Aug 4, 2009 9:27 AM EDT reply actions   1 recs

Interesting

NG-I actually agree with your thought process here.

by Buzzy on Aug 4, 2009 1:46 PM EDT up reply actions  

Agreed.

For once, I’m going to rec NG.

by bdalebs on Aug 4, 2009 2:44 PM EDT up reply actions  

A little late on this, but

1- Felix isn’t just a good pitcher, or even an ace. He has “best pitcher in baseball once Halladay begins to decline” written all over him.

2- Lars isn’t untouchable. He’s having a down year, and the Sox wouldn’t want to sell low on him. That’s it.

3- Westy and Kelly are untouchable. Westy because of his contract, and Kelly because his a total enigma right now, and those are just too damn fun.

4- A rotation of Felix, Lester and Beckett is just silly.

5- I somehow doubt that the M’s can get more than this Sox package. This could end up like the Peavy trade for the Padres, where they were forced to take a not-so-great return because they didn’t pull the trigger at the right time.

"Hey we got a lot in common here... I'm gonna rape you"

by MerryGoByeBye on Aug 4, 2009 3:16 PM EDT reply actions  

What's the deal with Westy's contract?

couldn’t he be traded as a PTBNL?

"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw

by BTLove on Aug 4, 2009 5:29 PM EDT up reply actions  

Sadly, yes.

That’s the loophole to the “can’t-be-traded-until-a-year-after-signing” rule. Although, I’d think that any deal with a PTBNL as the centerpiece would piss off the receiving fan base b/c they likely wouldn’t know who they’re getting.

by bdalebs on Aug 5, 2009 1:21 AM EDT up reply actions  

Lars Anderson, Clay Buchholz, Hagadone, Navarro, Bard sounds good

to this Mariner fan. I would take that deal for Felix in a heart beat. It satisfies our team need in a much better way with Anderson included in the package.

by brian_sun on Aug 4, 2009 4:59 PM EDT reply actions  

Good to hear that

That sounds like a good deal to me but I always wondered if that was just me overvaluing the prospects. It’s good to know that both sides would like that deal.

by BigRedDog42 on Aug 4, 2009 6:24 PM EDT up reply actions  

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