Game Story: BucKKKKKKKKKo Nearly Has to Punch the Pen
by bdalebs on Aug 29, 2009 10:59 PM EDT
in Game Stories
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PrintClay Buchholz was phenomenal tonight - 9 K's, 2 walks, 3 hits (one of which wasn't really), all in 8.1 IP. The offense didn't give him a lot of support, but he dealt with it and gets the arbitrary "W." The sad part about this game is that he almost got no credit for after Hideki Okajima allowed Buch's last batter to score along with another run. Paps managed to shut it down with minimal additional drama, for once, and we all logged off the Game Thread happy (aside from some little issues with a heated debate and a cranky old guy). And now, for a in-depth look at Buch's dominance, in the form of a few Pitch F/X graphs.
First off, the trajectories:
Brilliant breaking stuff, and nice cut on the two-seamer. Very straight change, too. How was his location?
Glove side fastballs, curves breaking all across the zone, lots of changeups just below the zone. Good work, kid. How nasty was the stuff?
I <3 Buch's curve - that's just unfair. His change looks a lot like his fastball, but with less horizontal movement, like I mentioned looking at his trajectories. Another thing I noticed - last time he had an issue with showing his curve by throwing it from a bit higher than other pitches. Looks like that's still there:
They're spreading out though, so maybe he's working towards making them mix in with the others. Besides that, this is probably one of the best outings we've seen from Buch - ever. Keep it up, kid.
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buch's curve
Baseball Tonight raved about it. Nasty stuff.
Glad the Sox didn’t listen to all the people clamoring for his head just a few weeks ago.
Outings like tonight's show the potential for dominance
There’s basically no limit to his potential. His main issue is to work on his control and focus—-in other words, not letting himself fall into the emotional headspace that was his undoing last year.
The couple of times his armor showed signs of cracking—I’m thinking primarily of the fifth inning here—he buckled down and got out of the situation with minimal damage. Last year, that inning (in which 7 of the first 8 pitches were balls) would have quickly spiraled out of control as he lost his cool.
If he can keep his wits about him on the mound, Buchholz on any given day can be just as good as Lester.
precisely
he has a really nice arsenal of a plus plus change, plus curveball, potentially plus fastball and a rapidly developing slider. The issue is just, as you say, focus and command. He still seems to lose focus at least once a game, but the stuff is so damn sharp. Great game for Clay. In fact has been impressive 4 out of the last 5 times out.
Hey, for a #3/#4
Four out of five impressive starts is probably better than you can possibly ask for.
I think both of the big prospects—-Lester and Buchholz—-are still very much works in progress. Lester’s setbacks were physical, Buchholz’s were psychological. But it looks like they’re starting to reach the potential that everybody in the Sox front office was predicting from the beginning.
I don't really think Lester
is a work in progress anymore. Unless you mean that his K/9 are evolving in a surprising way. It has now been nearly 2 years over which he has been a frontline starter in the toughest division in baseball. The best lefty starters not named Lester are Sabathia, Lee, Santana, Danks, Bhuerle, Hamels. Perhaps I am missing some. Lester is clearly in that group-maybe not the best but up there with any of those guys. I would take him, all things considered (age, contract..) over any of them.
I hope of course Buchholz reaches close to his potential. He really has the talent for sure to be a great pitcher.
I believe he's still "in progress"
In that I think he has the ability to shut down lineups almost every time he takes the mound—-he certainly has the raw material to do it. But I also think he needs to figure out how to use his pitches better and be more efficient. (There were signs of this at the end of last season, but he seems to have regressed to late 2007-early 2008 form this year.)
That will come with time.
Working with the En-Tek-lopedie for another year or so should help him too.
@bs_uf15bosox9be The Original Gameday; Learn to use SB Nation
he is going deeper in games this year than last
so you need to revise this notion. He is going nearly as deep in games as Beckett did in 07.
On average, yes.
But there was a distinct split last year between the first half and the second half (or perhaps pre- and post-no-no). The first half had a lot of 5-6 inning, 100+ pitch outings; in the second half, he was able to get through 7+ innings on similar pitch counts.
Same length
this year after May 15 as last year in second half. If there is any difference at all it is just that he is King WAY more people, which takes a bit more pitches to do so. I would trade that for less than 1/3 inning as it allows him to control the game more without balls in play. He is better this year than lest-look at his peripherals.
Serious question
How many K’s per 9 would you trade for an extra inning per game, if peripherals were more or less the same?
Or is it just a function of this year’s defense being worse than last year’s?
If you are trading K/9, then peripherals would not be the same. A higher K rate though, leads to a lower ERA, which is what everyone wants. And, as you mention, our defense this year is much worse than last year, so we want to keep as many balls out of play as possible.
"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw
Was going to post the same thing.
However, if, magically, you could make that trade I would take the innings of course. The utility of K’s is to keep the balls in play out of the picture. If you still could manage a tRA or FIP that is the same (and predictably and sustainably the same) than I would take the innings. Either way, Lester is going very deep-nearly 6 2/3 a game. That’s fine by me.
Why wouldn't you?
If it doesn’t change the run prevention, why not try to get more of it?
@bs_uf15bosox9be The Original Gameday; Learn to use SB Nation
clay bucholz
way to go clay. josh should return to form & w/lester retaining form we should have a strong september and, at the least, wrap up the wild card…. GO SOX
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