Low risk, high reward: Not a complete failure, but close
by Randy Booth on Aug 27, 2009 11:45 AM EDT
in News
69 comments
Instead of signing a big name like Mark Teixeira this offseason, Red Sox general manager Theo Epstein went a different direction. He decided (once he was burned by Teixeira) that he'd sign a few guys that were comparatively cheap, but their upsides could be good enough to make a real impact.
Now, with September just a few days away, the strategy seems almost like a complete failure.
The three players that fall under the "low risk, high reward" umbrella are as follows: Brad Penny, John Smoltz and Takashi Saito.
Please hold back your laughter -- if you can.
JOHN SMOLTZ
We all know how the Smoltz story went down. He rehabbed and everyone was waiting for "the day" he'd be back to save the Red Sox. He was supposed to be the savior of the Sox. So what did he do?
Nothing.
Smoltz's best start was a five-inning performance against the Royals on July 11. He gave up four hits, one run, one walk and struck out seven. That was the kind of performance the Sox were expecting on a regular basis.
Instead, he gave up five runs or more in six of his eight starts. After giving up eight runs to the Yankees on Aug. 6, Smoltz was finally designated for assignment. He refused a demotion to Pawtucket and was instead traded to the Cardinals.
The Smoltz era in Boston did not last very long. But, by all standards, it was a bust.
Grade: F -- Did not offer the Sox much other than two decent games. Such a promising time for both the Sox and Smoltz turned into something both will want to forget as quickly as possible.
BRAD PENNY
Penny wasn't a complete bust. While he wasn't the best starting pitcher, he had his moments and the Sox benefited from him at least a little -- unlike Smoltz.
Penny made the third most starts out of any Sox starter this season before he requested his own release Wednesday night. He racked up 11 quality starts in 24 games, which I would say is pretty good from a fifth starter.
So while Penny may have been a plus while the season started and went along, recently he just fell off. In four August starts, Penny gave up 20 earned runs in 21.2 innings of work. In his last start against the Yankees, he worked four innings and surrendered eight runs. Seems like the Yankees like to run the Sox's starters out of town, huh?
Grade: C- -- He was at least useful to some extent. The Sox could have done worse for a fifth starter. If it wasn't for his last month of work, the grade might have been higher. Nevertheless, he's gone now.
TAKASHI SAITO
Finally, a move that has worked out for Theo so far.
We can't forget about Saito. While he isn't working in crucial innings for the most part, he's been a big asset to the best bullpen in baseball. Saito has a 2.80 ERA in 45 innings of work. Opponents are hitting just .226 against the veteran (which is great, but also 4th best in the bullpen -- gotta' love how strong this 'pen is).
In the second half of the season, Saito has been even better. He's surrendered just two runs in 14.1 innings, including a 0.75 WHIP in August.
There was word the Sox were in the market to trade Saito earlier in the season, but that never panned out. Can you blame them, though? Saito could have brought in something valuable for a team that needed a closer. But he's with the club and pitching some of his best baseball of the season.
If the Sox make the playoffs, Saito could come up huge. It's nice to have such a deep bullpen with two proven closers (Saito and Billy Wagner) not even pitching in the 9th inning.
Grade: B+ -- He's been very solid, but he isn't working the toughest of innings either. Still, you can't argue with results, no matter where they are coming in a game.
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No arguements from me.
I agree with all the grades assigned.
Man I love that tuna casserole.
by Bloggy on Aug 27, 2009 11:56 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Kicked outta the spellin' bee
Too bad I can’t spell “argument”.
@#$%
Man I love that tuna casserole.
by Bloggy on Aug 27, 2009 11:57 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
That's fine
but the options after Teixeira were not large ones. Theo could have taken the road he did, or:
Option (A): Sign Derek Lowe or AJ Burnett or another multi-year guy.
Option(B):Internal options.
Option (A) probably would have only netted Lowe since the Yankees had an agressive interest in Burnett. Lowe is old, not cheap at all, and has had a very up and down year. He is better than Penny, but would have to be signed gor a lot and for years and would not have been dramatically better than Penny. USG also mentioned Wolf and Vazquez.
Vazquez is great-had great peripherals all 3 years on the WS and misses a ton of bats. Don’t know why he was not considered. Wolf would not be a tremendous help.
Option B-was probably deemed too risky. They probably never expected Tazawa to pitch in the majors this year, and likely had their doubts with Bowden. That leaves Clay, who would not be enough given the need for 3 starters (Wake, Dice and Penny-fill in).
Looking over the options, I think the idea made sense and failed anyway. The thing I will agree with USG on is that there were perhaps better pitchers to go after. Vazquez for sure, and I don’t know why that was not considered. Pehaps it was felt that he had already failed in the ALEast. It seems the FO did not want to make any long term committments to gain depth. I can really understand that, but then the likelihood of failure being higher has to be accepted.
by Buzzy on Aug 27, 2009 12:06 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I was on the Vazquez bandwagon as well. I’m not sure how well he’d pitch in the AL East again, though. We’ve seen the AL East turn men into boys after a couple of starts, but I still think Vazquez is a strong pitcher. He was my sleeper for NL Cy Young going into this season.
by Randy Booth on Aug 27, 2009 12:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Vazquez
is probably in the top 5 in the NL interms of the year he is having. He ranks 3rd overall in FIP behind Lincecum and Carpenter.
by Buzzy on Aug 27, 2009 12:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
So
you are saying you think Vasquez is in the same league of pitcher as Carpenter and Lincecum?
=)
by SoxAcumen on Aug 27, 2009 1:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Chris Carpenter from the Cardinals?
Come on Buzzy, you cannot be making that argument. Carpenter is a solid #1 who dominates teams.
by SoxAcumen on Aug 27, 2009 2:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Chris Carpenter
Using SoxAcumen stats, is a career 3.91 ERA. Javy Vazquez is a career 4.20. By smarter stats Vazquez is better. In the AL Carpenter’s ERAs were 5.09, 4.37,4.38, 6.26, 4.09, 5.28. He goes to the NL and, all of a sudden 3.41, 2.83, and 3.09. So…how is he “not in the same league” as Carpenter? His numbers in the NL are similar to Carpenter’s. He had at least one year in the AL that was superior to any Carpenter ever had. His peripherals are as good or better. He has better stuff. You can argue that Carpenter is better (and that is fair) but if you think Vazquez is not is the “same league” then you are a fool.
by Buzzy on Aug 27, 2009 4:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
also
maybe you missed Vazquez 7 2/3 inning one run domination of the Red Sox this year (if you want to talk about “dominating teams.”)
by Buzzy on Aug 27, 2009 4:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
So if your life depended on a single start you would
take Vasquez over Carpenter? Ok =) man, you stat guys are really willing to say almost anything to prove your point.
Last time I checked Javier Vasquez had not won a Cy Young, but maybe there is some RIPPE, SIDS, LOL stat that I am missing which would say that Carpenter’s Cy is not worth as much as Vasquez’s era in the NL.
I bet if you asked every manager in baseball if Chris Carpenter and Javier Vasquez were in the same conversation as #1s, everyone would laugh at the question.
but please dazzle me some more with your stats, its proven absolutely nothing in the past, why change? Do you want to break down Adam Dunn v. Nick Johnson as hitters? Oh wait Nick Johnson is on the DL….
by SoxAcumen on Aug 27, 2009 5:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hmm...
these points make sense, er, no they don’t.
a)Anyone would would rely on any pitcher for one start for their life is stupid. Carpenter has been great in the postseason at times and crappy. Like the 7 earned runs and 3HRs he gave up to the Mets in 11 innings in 06. Or the shutdown game he had in the 06 WS. So what?
b)Since when did the Cy Young award mean anything? Poll every GM in baseball if it does and you will be laughed at. Maybe we should trade for Bartolo Colon, Eric Gagne, or Barry Zito-they all won Cy Young awards! Let’s trade them for Beckett, since he never won the Cy Young.You know how SF ended up paying Zito what they did? By thinking like you.
c)Same goes for asking GMs if Carpenter or Vazquez are in the same conversation. Of course they are. Carpenter may be better, but they are in the same conversation.
d)And Nick Johnson vs Adam Dunn…can you find where I said Johnson was a better hitter? Please search the archives. I said that he was a good hitter that would be available and that Dunn is too expensive, too limited, and most importantly not available. And, guess what…Dunn was not available. Thanks for the non-sequitur low rent laywer trick of changing the topic. As you can see all it does is make you look silly about all of the other wrong things you say-like AGonz is available, like Dunn is available, like Buch would be in the VMart deal, like Mauer will leave the Twins (ok, that one has not come up yet, but same stupidity).
by Buzzy on Aug 27, 2009 5:43 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Rec'd.
@bs_uf15bosox9be The Original Gameday; Learn to use SB Nation
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Aug 28, 2009 10:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Because being healthy is a skill.
And managers in general aren’t the most knowledgeable of people – there’s a reason why they’re not called coaches.
@bs_uf15bosox9be The Original Gameday; Learn to use SB Nation
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Aug 28, 2009 10:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Are you sure Vazquez was available?
The Braves got him in a trade with the Chisox on December 4, 2008. I believe he was extended by Chicago through 2010 before the trade. So, he wasn’t a FA.
Vazquez was bad with the MFY and unlucky in Chicago: 38-36 4.40 ERA 1.25 WHIP – 3.86 FIP (‘06), 3.80 FIP (’07), 3.74 FIP (’08).
He is having a great year. But what would Chicago have wanted to trade him to Boston?
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Aug 27, 2009 2:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Never said
he was a FA, but I don’t think the WS got too much for him. Seemed like the typical WS move (sell low).
by Buzzy on Aug 27, 2009 4:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Here's an interesting piece on Vazquez
Link.
"It's just a tiny little nick, but it hurts when I get champagne in there."
- Jason Bay, on getting spiked scoring the winning run in ALDS Game Four.
by 0157H7 on Aug 27, 2009 12:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Exactly!
“the options after Teixeira were not large ones.”
Right. The Sox made a strong run at him, they just didn’t get him. I can’t fault the Sox for not wanting to throw endless amounts of money at the guy. The reality is, that strategy often does not pan out. Your expensive new player fizzles, gets injured, is a head case, whatever.
It’s not as if the Sox had the option of two or three OTHER Teixeira-like free agent players who fit into spots in their lineup. They believed in their farm system, and took another route. The signing of Penny and Smoltz seem designed just to bide time while younger pitchers came along.
The team’s got a lot of strengths. This winter they’ll consider what’s out there to address their weaknesses (short, catcher, maybe an outfielder). They’ve probably solved their future DH situation with V-Mart. (Ortiz may be hot right now, but on the whole his career is on ice. Guy’s hitting like .220.)
The Sox promise to put a contending team out there every year. I could not say they don’t make good on that. If I wanted a team that spent as if they owned the mint and promised the moon every year, I’d root for the Yankees.
by Mister Snitch on Aug 27, 2009 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Look for his stats after June 1.
@bs_uf15bosox9be The Original Gameday; Learn to use SB Nation
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Aug 28, 2009 10:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Why couldn't we have had
an “aggressive interest” in Burnett? The guy was a proven AL East winner. (Not hindsight; I wanted him and said so here.)
It IS possible to outbid the Yankees for some players. Usually, we aren’t exactly cheapskates when it comes to spending. Look how we outbid New York – substantially – for the rights to Dice-K.
Generally, the axiom “you get what you pay for in life,” is true. That sure was true this past winter: compare Sabbathia and Burnett with Penny-Smoltz. No….don’t; it’s too painful. “Low-risk, high reward” is BS. I hope the Sox learned.
by ccthemovieman on Aug 27, 2009 2:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
A "proven AL East winner"?
What has he ever won in the AL East? He was good last year—so what? The MFY signed him to a stupid contract: 5 years/$82.5 million. It’s a pretty good bet they’ll regret it. Burnett hasn’t been great this year: 4.08 ERA 4.49 FIP 5.24 tRA 4.37 BB/9. That’s a pretty poor result for $16.5 million.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Aug 27, 2009 2:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
another +1
Burnett with the Jays was an oft-injured, hot-cold, roughly .500 pitcher from my recollections, last year as the exception. They can have ‘im for 83 Mil. He’ll be an albatross by May of next year. I’m surprised he’s lasted this long this year.
Man I love that tuna casserole.
by Bloggy on Aug 27, 2009 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah I have to agree with DD on this
Burnett is OVER rated and to me a big waste of 86 million dollars. D. Lowe would of been a much better choice and cheaper.
by SoxAcumen on Aug 27, 2009 2:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
There is no way the Yanks would let Sabathia go go us
They wanted him more than they wanted Teixeira. As for Burnett, thanks but no thanks. He’s been okay this year, but not based on what he was worth. Theo felt like we already had a good 1-2-3-4 and really only needed a stable #5 starter, so that’s what he went after. But our aggressive attempts to get Halladay and King Felix show me they weren’t sitting on their asses when Dice-K and Wake went down. I’ll be curious to see what they do with the rotation this offseason.
DFA Beckett
by South Coast Ghost on Aug 27, 2009 2:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I personally think if Felix does not sign or talk about an extension,
the Red Sox and Yankees will be fighting over who can trade for King Felix.
I know Seattle has said it wants to extend Felix, but after seeing how horribly the Haladay situation was handled, and knowing the Red Sox offered a lot for Felix in 09, I would bet Seattle will be listening.
If Seattle gets any bad vibes from Felix, I can see him being moved.
by SoxAcumen on Aug 27, 2009 2:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Burnett
Is only good in contract years. Yeah he was good last year but hasn’t been anything special this year. Plus he gets hurt often, he’s certainly due for the injury bug.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
by Rogue Nine on Aug 27, 2009 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The hell?
Burnett’s going to be injured or suck pretty soon – would’ve been a waste.
We made the largest offer to talk to Dice-K. It wasn’t a bidding process, because teams made blind offers, not knowing who else and how much was bid. Plus, it was an investment in the Japanese market – helping us get guys like Tazawa.
That saying only works when everyone has equal information about the product and the same funds – we don’t have the same payroll, and maybe Theo&Co. knew that any of those deals would be bad in the long run (VERY likely).
Try to avoid judging the signings too soon. And, we paid less and have better backups for our guys, who weren’t supposed to be big factors anyways. That’s why Penny and Smoltz were “low-risk, high reward” originally – they were supposed to be marginal players fighting for a roster spot, with the potential to put a very good pitcher at the back end of the rotation.
@bs_uf15bosox9be The Original Gameday; Learn to use SB Nation
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Aug 28, 2009 10:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Lowe wanted to come to Boston..
The Sox would had gotten a discount, not much but a million or two off the final deal. However, if a team wants Lowe or any good sinker, they can’t have any holes in the infield, and the Sox had a huge hole at Shortstop.
The Sox have seen Lowe’s great feats (no hitter, Game 7 2004 ALCS and Game 4 2004 WS) but he is quirky, had some big drinking problems in the past, and the word “erratic” in Webster’s Dictionary has his picture next to the word. (Sept 2004, when he put into the bullpen) The Sox showed no interest in Lowe during the 2008/2009 off season..
I think the Sox FO tends to focus on OBP for batters and high Strikeout to Walk ratio for pitchers. Which is why Daisuke was suppose to be the second coming with his strikeout ratio, before he became the bases on ball king in 2008.
by superferret on Aug 27, 2009 3:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
One more point about Penny
A good point made on YFSF – Penny had max value around the trade deadline and could have brought us something nice if not for the injuries to our 3 and 4 starters, Wake and Dice-K. With them out we couldn’t lose him, which was too bad. Them’s the breaks.
by Sophomore on Aug 27, 2009 12:15 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
In the broader low risk category of signings
Don’t forget the position players: Rocco Baldelli, Mark Kotsay, and Nick Green.
Kotsay sucks. Baldelli’s been okay (96 OPS+), with decent power for a backup player, but a lackluster OBP.
Nick Green has been a good addition. He’s provided good defense (despite the scary number of errors), by metrics such as UZR, and he was on fire in the batter’s box at the start of the year.
So the low-risk acquisitions have been a mixed bag. That said, I’d like to see more high-profile signings in the future. If the Sox don’t get one of Jason Bay or Matt Holliday (ideal) this offseason, or a comparable bat, I’ll be upset. Sometimes you can bottle lightning with low-risk acquisitions, but most of the time they blow up in your face. The Sox are a rich team, and for the right players they should throw money around.
"It's just a tiny little nick, but it hurts when I get champagne in there."
- Jason Bay, on getting spiked scoring the winning run in ALDS Game Four.
by 0157H7 on Aug 27, 2009 12:32 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
+1
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Aug 27, 2009 2:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Holliday is the guy we need to go after
100%.
DFA Nick Green
by gizmosandy on Aug 27, 2009 5:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't mind the Cards
But I hope they flame out of the playoffs in the 1st round and Holliday decides he doesn’t like it there so much.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
by Rogue Nine on Aug 27, 2009 5:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Disagree on your ratings
According to Fangraphs, Penny was worth $9.4M, Smoltz was worth $2.0M, and Saito has been worth $1.3M. We paid Penny $5.0M, Smoltz $7M , and Saito $3.5M.
Including our position players (Baldelli, Kotsay, and Green) Fangraphs has them worth $1.3M, $-1.4M, and $1.2M respectively. We paid them $0.5M, $1.5M, and $0.55M respectively.
This means we got a total value of $13.8M and we spent $18.05M on them. Making a net loss of $4.25M, meaning it was a bust but not completely.
Players that were busts are Kotsay and Smoltz. Saito still has time to increase his value over the rest of the year, and can’t be considered a bust yet.
Green, Baldelli, and Penny have been a great success and there is still time for Green, Baldelli, and Saito to make up some of the $4.25M loss.
by drabidea on Aug 27, 2009 1:02 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
signing Tex
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Major_League_Baseball_teams_by_payroll
Yankees: $209 million
Red Sox: $138 million
Could we all please stop pretending that the Red Sox could have somehow outbid the Yankees for Teixeira if they’d only thrown in a few more dollars? The Yankees spend 50% more on players, and that includes all three of big free agent signings last year.
by RickD on Aug 27, 2009 1:07 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I couldn't agree more
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Aug 27, 2009 2:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I dont think it had anything to do with outbidding
If we look back, Tex probably used the Red Sox and Angels to get more money from the team he really wanted to play for, the Yankees.
The bidding war is going to be for Mauer, then we will see if the Red Sox really want to spend like the Yankees or not.
by SoxAcumen on Aug 27, 2009 2:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If he doesn't re-sign
Which I’m really not sure he will even if he is from there and all that. He is having an MVP season and it would be difficult for him to accept a “hometown discount” after this, I don’t think that the Twins can pay him what he deserves. Also Morneau has voiced his frustrations with the front office and their unwillingness to improve the team during the season when he thinks they are contenders, he hinted pretty heavily that it may affect Mauer’s decision.
I’m pretty confident we can get him if he becomes a free agent. I mean, I’m not sure our catching prospects will be ready at that point and the Yankees have Jesus Montero who is the heir apparent to Posada when he becomes a DH. We are really going to need a catcher (assuming we keep Vmart long term and he pans out as a 1B/DH primarily/backup C) and they really aren’t. Should he go to freeagency I’m pretty optimistic of our chances, MFY will push the price up but I think we will out offer them.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
by Rogue Nine on Aug 27, 2009 3:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Due to the general weakness of the AL Central the Twins aren't technically out of it yet
If they can somehow make it to the playoffs, and then sign some B-level talent in the offseason they may be able to convince him that they’re trying to go for it and to take a slight discount. That’s about all they can do at this point.
DFA Beckett
by South Coast Ghost on Aug 27, 2009 3:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
We've got Wagner, Expo, FedEx, etc.
And Montero’s likely a 1B in the future, IIRC.
@bs_uf15bosox9be The Original Gameday; Learn to use SB Nation
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Aug 28, 2009 10:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think Mauer is going to re-sign with the Twins...
He is their franchise player, the Twins are going to do everything to re-sign him or get him an extension.
If I were a big market team, I would be really hesitant in giving a huge multi year contract to a catcher. look what happened to Posada on Wednesday night, one pitch can wreck a team hundred of million dollar investment, (beside the insurance premiums) Either put Mauer behind the plate or have him in a another position for his bat and average.
by superferret on Aug 27, 2009 3:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If
Minnesota lets Mauer it will set their franchise back a decade. They HAVE to sign him, imagine the backlash. But he would look nice in red.
Ian Browne aspires to be like me.
by jkeough on Aug 27, 2009 4:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
They don't have the money.
Morneau is already locked up through 2013 making 14 mil a year.
Joe Nathan is locked up through 2011 making 11 mil.
Mauer should not be getting anything less than 15 mil (probably will get considerably more if he keeps hitting the way he does).
Twins have had a payroll recently around 60 million. So lets say that they sign Mauer for 2011 at 15 million that year.
15 + 14 + 11= 40.5 million. Is it really reasonable to spend around two thirds of your total team payroll on 3 players?
They are already going to be spending nearly that amount on the three of them for next season anyways. At some point if you want to be a contender you have to invest in the rotation.
by upCHUCK on Aug 27, 2009 6:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The Twinkies are moving...
to their new stadium which means higher ticket prices, and they need to keep bringing fans to their seats. They are going to seriously try to keep Mauer. After a year of high attendance for new parks..
The Twinkies are one of the best run organizations in baseball, they will won’t go all out and do a Vernon Wells contract for Mauer, and will write him off if the bidding war becomes obscene, but they are not going to let him go without a fight… If anyone knows the value of Mauer with pitchers, it is the Twins.
by superferret on Aug 27, 2009 7:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
These were gambles
Most gambles do not pay off. Usually you bet 5 or 6 options and if 1 hits, you make money. That is how it works in Vegas.
Saito has been what I expected and more. If he can get people out in the playoffs, I consider that a big win.
Penny did what he was supposed to, eat innings and he got a few wins for the Sox. Push.
Smoltz was a longshot.
Green was a longshot that paid off big as well.
by SoxAcumen on Aug 27, 2009 1:08 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Buyer beware on any NL pitchers
That should be the lesson learned here.
The only head scratcher for me was the Smoltz signing. Even if Smoltz had “worked out” to some degree, you’re telling me that Paul Byrd couldn’t pitch as well (or better) for a 1/3 of the price?
I bet some AL team will make the same mistake with guys like Doug Davis and Randy Wolf next year.
by Toxicadam on Aug 27, 2009 2:36 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Off topic: Will tonight be one of those "split squad" looking lineups?
The factors are all there for it:
1 – We’ve won the first 3 against the White Sox.
2 – Tazawa’s pitching.
3 – It’s not a must-win in the standings or morale-wise for us.
It could be one of those “You know, Bay, V-Mart, and Pedroia could use a night off” kind of games for Tito.
by dsharp on Aug 27, 2009 2:40 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Nope
Lineup is as pretty as possible:
1. Jacoby Ellsbury, CF
2. Dustin Pedroia, 2B
3. Victor Martinez, C
4. Kevin Youkilis, 1B
5. David Ortiz, DH
6. Jason Bay, LF
7. Mike Lowell, 3B
8. J.D. Drew, RF
9. Alex Gonzalez, SS
by Randy Booth on Aug 27, 2009 4:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The MFY lost
The Sox need a win to keep Texas two back and gain ground on New York.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Aug 27, 2009 4:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I hate that series
Seriously, I still want to win the division but wildcard seems way more likely at this point but I can’t get myself to root for the MFY. A four game series they can split would be much more appropriate I think.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
by Rogue Nine on Aug 27, 2009 5:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Can't do it, either.
Man I love that tuna casserole.
by Bloggy on Aug 27, 2009 6:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I would argue...
that all 9 innings of a game are important. Saito has done his job,and done it well.
Penny seemed to be somewhere between the Penny of 2007 and 2008. It appears his velocity and control were still good,as his W / IP and K / W were both good,and his K / IP was decent. However,while the velocity might have still been fairly good,he probably wasn’t getting the movement he used to,thus a lot of his pitches were getting hit hard.
Other theories?
by havildar on Aug 27, 2009 3:00 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
More of the Penny of '07
In ’08, he was horrid.
by Randy Booth on Aug 27, 2009 3:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
When
he goes to the NL later this week he will of course dominate.
Because it’s a minor league.
Nyuk. Nyuk.
Ian Browne aspires to be like me.
by jkeough on Aug 27, 2009 4:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Rumor is that the Yankees want Penny
That would be funny.
by SoxAcumen on Aug 27, 2009 5:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I expect the organization has learned from this mistake, though.
I don’t think they’re going to try it again. This is very much how they run their farm system, and it definitely has worked out there. But the sample size is so much larger down there and you end up only needing to produce the same number of MLB ready players. When recruiting from a limited stock of guys who should be playing on a $120 million + team, you have to go after high-level sure things. And I expect that to happen in the future.
by Ben Buchanan on Aug 27, 2009 5:16 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I wouldn't be surprised if they continued it for 4th/5th OF, back-up catchers, or the last man in the bullpen
Saito has been good as the last man out, Green was better than he thought it would be (although he was only here because Lugo was injured), and Baldelli off the bench or in spots has been good as well if he could play more often. But for actual starters either on the field or in the rotation no, I would be disappointed if they went that route.
DFA Beckett
by South Coast Ghost on Aug 27, 2009 7:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Burnett
was the guy we should have gone for above Smoltz/Penny
DFA Nick Green
by gizmosandy on Aug 27, 2009 5:24 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
No
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Aug 27, 2009 5:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Another NO!
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
by Rogue Nine on Aug 27, 2009 5:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Absolutely no.
Man I love that tuna casserole.
by Bloggy on Aug 27, 2009 6:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed.
I made the case for this. I didn’t like the expense entailed, and the likelihood that he’d be injured / underperforming in at least one of the years. Nevertheless, he would have made our rotation better.
Unfortunately, the Sox were out-bid by the Yankees.
"It's just a tiny little nick, but it hurts when I get champagne in there."
- Jason Bay, on getting spiked scoring the winning run in ALDS Game Four.
by 0157H7 on Aug 27, 2009 8:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Derek Lowe is also a guy we should NOT have pursued
(And I’m glad we didn’t)
He had one good season as an AL starter followed by 2 crap ones (regardless of accolades accumulated) before becoming a pre-eminent name the second he hit the NL. We’ve seen that before. His sinker wouldn’t have played well with our crap defense at 3rd and short (even Youk is only playing average 3B defense, much less the cripple). Sure, Nick Green has fair numbers, but I can’t help but suspect that’s a SSS deal that didn’t need testing.
Beyond that he’s 35 and would cost plenty of money for 3-4 years. Not something I want to take on when I’ve got 3 guys I want well and truly locked in (well, 2 I want and one guy who’s contract lasts another few years) and a whole slew of minor league talent constantly looking over my shoulder.
by Ben Buchanan on Aug 27, 2009 6:31 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Randy...
in ‘08 Penny was horrid because he was injured. That’s what I meant. About halfway between great and terrible this season. Well,maybe a little more toward the terrible..
by havildar on Aug 28, 2009 11:29 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
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