With Wakefield and Wagner, who loses their spot on the roster?
by Randy Booth on Aug 26, 2009 12:20 PM EDT
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PrintEnrique Gonzalez will be in Pawtucket before the day is over. That much is certain.
So that clears up how Tim Wakefield gets his spot back on the roster when he starts tonight against the White Sox. But when Billy Wagner shows up to town tomorrow, who's the next to go?
It leaves three likely pitchers that could get the boot: Junichi Tazawa, Clay Buchholz or Brad Penny.
All three are starters, although Tazawa just replaced Penny in the rotation, at least for the time being. Here's what the rotation looks like with Wakefield back in the mix:
Josh Beckett
Jon Lester
Tim Wakefield
Clay Buchholz
Junichi Tazawa
Maybe it seems clear cut that Penny is on the outside looking in, but would the Red Sox do that at this point of the season to Penny? Yes, he's been horrible, but they've also been very reluctant to do anything with him demoting him (until recently when he was benched).
So it might make more sense to send down either Buchholz or Tazawa. Buchholz has struggled as of late, while Tazawa is starting to get into a groove. However, sending down Buchholz could be a huge shock to his psyche -- something the Sox have tried to avoid as much as possible.
An outside candidate to lose his spot on the 25-man roster: Manny Delcarmen. While Manny hasn't been horrible this year, he hasn't been as good as the rest of the 'pen. He is obviously the weakest part of that bullpen at the moment (3.44 ERA, 1.47 WHIP) and Wagner, hopefully, could produce better than Manny D.
However, Manny D is a versatile relief pitcher. He can pitch more innings if need be and can pitch on less days rest. Wagner, just coming off Tommy John, can only reportedly pitch every three days. Do the Sox really want to lose a bullpen arm for another one that can only pitch every three days? It seems to me like Terry Francona might really need Manny in the bullpen if that's the case.
We'll wait and see over the next 48 hours. But what are your thoughts? Is it Penny's final days with the Sox, or will a younger buck see the door?
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DFA Penny
There is no reason for him to get in the way of guys like Tazawa and Buchholz.
by Gnick on Aug 26, 2009 12:22 PM EDT reply actions
Actually, I don’t think Penny can be DFA’d because he was put on waivers earlier in the season… if that sounds right…
by Randy Booth on Aug 26, 2009 12:32 PM EDT up reply actions
Isnt Tazawa on the hill tomorrow?
I bet he pitches, gets demoted until Sept. 1 and then he is back up to take his rotation spot again. The math might work out.
He used up 1 year's worth of options this year.
So he’s good to be sent up and down at will.
by Ben Buchanan on Aug 26, 2009 3:35 PM EDT up reply actions
His first year in the organization, no less.
So much for taking it slow with pitchers.
"It's just a tiny little nick, but it hurts when I get champagne in there."
- Jason Bay, on getting spiked scoring the winning run in ALDS Game Four.
Yeah that would be my choice.
or you can demote Tazawa and keep Penny until the rosters expand in Sept. Then bring Tazawa back up.
how about Bard?
I’d most like to see Penny DFA’ed. Maybe they’ve been keeping him around a week in case they needed him to work from the bullpen sometime in there. Since they haven’t seemed inclined to get rid of him yet though, does it seem completely unlikely that they might send Bard down for the week until rosters expand and then bring him back up? That way we still have the 5 man rotation and, as much as I love Bard, we could handle a week without him.
Buchholz has struggled as of late?
Seriously he had 1 bad outing his last 4 starts:
Date Opp IP HA ER BBA Ks
08/08 NYY 6.0 6 2 5 3
08/13 DET 7.0 5 1 3 3
08/19 TOR 6.0 6 1 1 4
08/24 CHW 4.2 6 7 3 3
He is still young, give him a break, 1 bad start hardly qualifies a struggling. I think demoting him would be a huge mistake dont mess with his head.
by German Red Sox Fan on Aug 26, 2009 12:44 PM EDT reply actions
Yeah, I really meant his last start
Vs. Tazawa’s last start, which was 6 scoreless innings against the Yanks.
by Randy Booth on Aug 26, 2009 12:49 PM EDT up reply actions
I was at the game Tazawa pitched against the MFY
He may have pitched 6 scoreless innings, but he was hit extremely hard. Tazawa put a lot of runners on and there were a ton of loud outs, not to mention a huge baserunning gaffe by Cano. I like Tazawa’a mound presence and poise, but that was the worst 6-inning scoreless outing I’ve ever seen.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Aug 26, 2009 12:56 PM EDT up reply actions
I was there too
and I concur. Buch and Tazawa are both works in progress, and the numbers for both don’t tell the story (and are very small samples). Buch has had 2 awful starts, 2 iffy starts, and 4 excellent starts. He is inconsistent for sure. Hard to say with Tazawa, but if I were to guess, shelling is just around the corner. I mean, the league is hitting an incredible 340 against him, his tRA is 7.40 and his FIP is 5.69. Those are bad bad numbers and not a recipe for a 3.57 ERA. Buch has been poor too w/r to peripherals but better than Tazawa. The game against the Yankees was not so telling in terms of runs scored. About half the outs were warning track FBs, and the Yankees has guys on 3rd (and 2 guys no base) nearly every inning.
Tazawa is a lot like Dice-K — bend but don’t break. He’s also a rookie with minimal experience, so that’s not too bad considering all that.
Tazawa has been one of the best things to happen to the Red Sox this season.
He has weathered a very crazy first time up in the bigs and had success regardless of numbers or stats.
I really could care less how “loud” the outs where…did he win, give the Red Sox a chance to win? That is good enough for me. Scoreboard is what counts, stats are for fantasy sports players.
You guys are missing the point
there is no such thing as “bend don’t break” in baseball. Dice-K’s 2008 year was not “bend-don’t-break” it was the fate of BAPIP gods+LOB% gods. It cannot and will not be repeated. Given that, I would say that Tazawa has even less chance than Dice-K of performing this kind of Houdini act. At least Dice can K people. How do you prevent runners from third (repeatedly) from scoring if you can’t K people? Answer-you don’t (over time). People need to stop looking over small samples to put justifications on things. Otherwise we would be explaining Julio Lugo’s 970OPS and 3 triples for the Cards as “it is just the NL” or Nick Green’s 300 batting average over the first 2 months as “a new batting stance.” Dice K’s peripherals in 07 were very similar to 08 but his ERA was 1.5 points higher. That illustrates my point. A guy with a 7.something tRA will NEVER continue to have success if his tRA stays 7+.
SA-I really don’t undertsand how you can repeatedly say things like “Scoreboard is what counts, stats are for fantasy sports players” Aside from the shear factual problem with this statement (fantasy sports use YOUR KIND OR RESULTS-BASED STATS). The scoreboard IS what counts. However my point is that if Tazawa() continues to do what he has been doing (eg 2 baserunners an inning, and a FIP of 6) then the results will, in the future, suck. You get it? I am not saying the results have been bad, I am saying they sure as hell will be soon.Why is this important? Because we are trying to pick our best rotation for the near *future I really don’t understand how you fail to see this. It is as if you think that a guy that nearly gets rocked each time out will continue in perpetuity to have the same results.
(*) That said-I am not down at all on Tazawa. He is young and has just started pitching in organized baseball. He does not back down from anything, and I think he has a good future. I do not even think he should be dropped. All I am saying is that what he has shown so far is should not inspire confidence that he will contiue that for now, and that is what we are discussing.
by Buzzy on Aug 26, 2009 2:54 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
what he has shown so far is should not inspire confidence that he will contiue that for now, and that is what we are discussing.
Funny…I thought what we were discussing was is Tazawa > Penny?
The scoreboard is what counts. Everything else can be used to try to see what’s best to get the W…but I don’t care if a guy’s tFIP+ is 11.345. If he gets a W, I love him. Hug me, Big Winner!
Man I love that tuna casserole.
Sure
I never said that I don’t love only the results. I could care less if any pitcher on my team had a FIP of 6.43 and an ERA of 2.31 with 20 wins over the entire season (even though that will never happen). But…the results of the past are not predictors of the results of the future. That’s easy, isn’t it? Don’t we want to look at the predictors of results in the future to decide who should pitch and who should not? As for Penny vs anyone else, I can’t stand to see Penny take his cap off one more time after crapping his pants early in a game. Not sure there is a secondary stat for that.
Giving up that many hits and walks is not good — that is understandable. But we have to put it into context: For Tazawa, a rookie pitcher who has had less than a YEAR pitching in American, that is a damn good game he put out there.
And it is better than what Brad Penny has been doing.
Bloggy should be banned here
If he thinks that’s the level of discourse expected around here. SA gets a pass because of he’s been a part of this site for a while. How can anyone think that “Wins are all that counts” when evaluating pitchers. Can you not understand that there are 24 other men on the roster other than the pitcher? I guess Bloggy thinks that other the two Hernandezes last year, Felix and Livan, Livan was better, because he had 12 wins to Felix’s 8. Also, great humor by combining tERA, FIP, and ERA+ into onto hilarious made-up stat. Great stuff, I think Bill Plaschke is looking for new ghostwriters, you just definitely apply.
by Gnick on Aug 26, 2009 6:27 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA!!!!!
Ban me??
hoo-boy….gimme a sec….no srsly yo…need oxygen…
Ooof. I needed that. AWESOME.
Alright…what was I gonna say? Oh, yeah.
I’ll be the first to admit that I don’t necessarily get all the stats stuff (the point of my tFIP+ comment). And I am fully aware that just because a pitcher gets a win it means he’s awesome. However, I ALSO don’t need an army of stats to see a guy who’s on the upswing (Tazawa) and a guy who’s on a downswing (Penny). Tazawa has the potential to be a VERY GOOD PITCHER. You get put in some tough situations…you get hit hard, but make outs. You put guys on, but you get out of it. It builds character and confidence.
Hey! GET THIS! I didn’t even know there was a tERA. BAN ME!!!
Man I love that tuna casserole.
Haha what nerds those guys Gnick and Buzzy are. I bet those guys get like no women, none. What fucking losers they are for following an evolved way of statistically analyzing baseball.
I’m glad you’ve found a way to boil down the pitching aspect of the sport to “You get put in some tough situations…you get hit hard, but make outs. You put guys on, but you get out of it. It builds character and confidence.” Maybe if you did even a little research on the subject you would find out that strand rates of most big league pitchers are roughly the same, sure there are some exceptions, but when you see a guy stranding 84% of his baserunners, like Tazawa is, and that Roy Halladay’s career strand % is 71.3%, you can deduce that Tazawa is in for a bit of a rude awakening sooner or later. Sort of like Dice-K had this year, but I guess you would consider Dice-K to have been fantastic last year, given his 18-3 record and sub-3 ERA.
by Gnick on Aug 26, 2009 10:42 PM EDT up reply actions
Also
Stranding baserunners builds character? What the hell are you talking about? Confidence? I know if I was giving up 1.87 runners per inning I wouldn’t be too confident. I highly doubt that any major league pitcher gains more confidence from loading the bases only to get a line drive out to save them than they would from striking out the side.
by Gnick on Aug 26, 2009 10:45 PM EDT up reply actions
I ain't got time to be doin' no research on no stats...
…I’m too busy bangin’ hot chicks and watchin’ baseball!
WHOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!
(Do I get banned for that, too??)
Do you think it might be helpful for a young pitcher to know how to pitch out of tough situations? You know…runners on base…stuff like that? You think the knowledge that you can get into jams and then get out of them might build confidence? Cuz that’s kinda where I was going with that. I’m sorry if you don’t understand it because there aren’t any numbers or anything there….um….try this:
1.2/75/3.14/a million
Better?
Man I love that tuna casserole.
Insulting others is a good reason to get banned, Bloggy.
@bs_uf15bosox9be The Original Gameday; Learn to use SB Nation
Merely returning like with kind, my friend.
I play as nice as the people play with me.
Man I love that tuna casserole.
Thanks, Buzz!
And the great part is, I don’t even care if you’re laughing at me! :D
Man I love that tuna casserole.
Regardless, Buchholz needs to take his lumps in the Show.
There’s never a good time to let a pitcher struggle outside of spring training, but Buchholz has nothing left to prove in Pawtucket. Start him or trade him.
"You know you're having a bad day when the fifth inning rolls around and they drag the warning track." - Mike Flanagan, Baltimore Orioles pitcher, 1992.
Exactly. I wouldn't blame Bucholz for being upset with the organization.
If they demote him again. His capability and upside are to good for us to stash him in AAA. Bucholz will learn and improve. I think a lot of help has come from Victor Martinez who has caught him quite a bit as of late.
"Hating the New York Yankees is as American as apple pie, unwed mothers and cheating on your income tax." -- Mike Royko
by sox-inda-south on Aug 26, 2009 5:27 PM EDT up reply actions
UNLOAD PENNY!!!
I sincerely HOPE that it is Brad “not-worth-a-Penny” who is the odd man out. I’m tired of the way he pitches and I’m not sure why the Sox ever wanted him to begin with.
GUESS WHAT TIME IT IS?
Time for the BoSox to say, “Bye Bye Penny”….AWFUL. Yeah, I know Clay hasn’t been the best to take the mound and Tazawa can go 0-2 on everyone and then look get lost giving up a lot of baserunners but Penny’s value isn’t worth much more than his name. ADIOS!
Can this be like American Idol?
Can I vote Manny Delcarmen off the island?!?
We are not normal. We are legends.
You send Tazawa down, then call him back up when rosters expand.
Won’t hurt his options, we’re not gonna use him in the playoffs, why get rid of Brad Penny when we don’t have to? Don’t start him, but don’t cut him.
DL
I bet you’ll see Penny DL’d for something. Opens the roster spot, keeps eligibility for postseason, no muss, no fuss. Plus he’s not pitched in a while so he could be back by sept 5.
Is this a joke? Keep Penny in the rotation? Are you really serious? Tazawa was impressive against our biggest rival and deserves another start, not some guy who can’t get out of the 1st inning without giving up runs, and who’s pitch count is usually around 70 by the 3rd inning. Clay also deserves a spot, for now, because as “iffy” as he has been, at least you know it’s not an automatic loss, as it is with Penny. I hope this was just a joke, and if it is then shame on me for falling for it.
Tazawa was far from impressive in his start against the MFYs.
Read what Buzzy and Drugs (both at the game) had to say about him.
"Hating the New York Yankees is as American as apple pie, unwed mothers and cheating on your income tax." -- Mike Royko
by sox-inda-south on Aug 26, 2009 5:30 PM EDT up reply actions
LOL, what do I care what Buzzy and Drugs have to say about anything? Why would you? Here were his stats from that game: 6.0IP 8H 0R 0ER 0HR 2BB 2K
Here are Brad Pennys: 4.0IP 10H 8R 8ER 0HR 1BB 4K
I would call Tazawa’s start impressive, Brad Penny’s………not so much. Regardless of what Buzzy and Drugs say.
While I think we should keep Tazawa and dump Penny
I do believe you are overlooking some things here. Tazawa’s start really wasn’t all that impressive. Sure he got out of it without giving up any runs, but 10 baserunners in 6 innings, a 1:1 BB/K ratio, the fact that by all accounts he was hit quite hard. All of these things point to an inability to maintain his current success.
by Gnick on Aug 26, 2009 10:47 PM EDT up reply actions
Brad Penny
blows. I was never advocating keeping Penny and dumping Tazawa. See above please. Tazawa has a bright future, and I like the kid a lot. But if you are expecting a guy who is going to have a 3.5ERA the rest of the way because he does now, you are in for a surprise. All I was saying is that there are warnings signs all over his starts. Do I think 6 innings 0 runs against the Yankees is a sucessful start? You bet. Do I think if that game were replayed 10 times that would repeat? No chance in hell. The stupidity is that the people arguing here are arguing two totally unrelated things. Looking at someones stat line in one or a handful of games is not indicative of how they will pitch their next games, it does not mean were are not satisfied with the results.
Hey Buzzy, I wasn’t attacking your opinion (in fact I didn’t even read it before posting). I was just commenting on not reading too much into other peoples opinions (mine included). I understand the tone of any post is not translated well with written word. My original post was directed at the blog itself, not any of the replies. Penny as the odd man out was a no-brainer to me, and apparently to the Sox and Penny himself as well since he’s gone.
I agree with you that one game isn’t indicative of what someone will do in the future, like Buchholz’s no hitter, but in Brad Penny’s case you could look what he has done most of the season using his stats and pretty much conclude that he will continue to struggle, not make it past the 6th inning, and not be able to beat teams that the Red Sox will need him to. Only three of his seven wins are against teams that are above .500, which is not the type of pitcher you might feel comfortable with in a playoff race as tight as this one is bound to get.
It’s a tough spot, but I’d rather lose with young guys who need experience in this race than lose with a guy who looks lethargic out on the mound. He just didn’t look like he gave a ****.
Anyway, cheers! Go Sox!
Hmmm...
I agree with most of you that Penny is the worst pitcher we have. However, I am not sure that his contract is flexible like Buchholz or Tazawa. This situation seems to call for clever juggling of contracts and not permanent roster decisions. Why not keep Penny for a while – he may be useful somehow (maybe he could pinch-run like Buchholz).
Pinch run Brad Penny???
That is about the stupidest thing I’ve ever heard.
"Hating the New York Yankees is as American as apple pie, unwed mothers and cheating on your income tax." -- Mike Royko
by sox-inda-south on Aug 26, 2009 5:29 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't care if Penny is DFA'ed or not
I just hope he never starts one more game for the red sox. I feel like the red sox have been really stubborn with these old pitchers, they know that these guys such as smoltz and penny aren’t pitching well but they kept starting them week after week because they are desperate for it to work out.
DL
Put ‘T-ball Penny’ on the 60 day DL for shell shock …
PENNY OUT
Penny has been terrible – he should be on the outside. I thought the Sox should have kept Smoltz and put him in the bullpen and released Penny!
Penny, Bad. Buch, Good
C’mon we got what every one knew we were going to be getting from Penny. Good first half, the pits after the All-Star break. Everyone knew it, and everyone expected it. Instead of trading him for ten or eleven ash bats like the management should have done before the break now it’s who do we send down or DL or take a ride out to marshes (Don’t forget the canolli.) . Every single one of those low risk choices made in preseason came back to haunt the team this year. Here is a hint to RS management, save up boo-coo millions and get Pujols on the team, ahh sweet sweet fantasy, instead they will get that first baseman from San Diego.
by papoonforpresident on Aug 26, 2009 10:43 PM EDT reply actions
Sox in da South
No “Sox in da South”, you are stupid for not having an open mind, you know nothing
by King of Da AL EAST on Sep 9, 2009 6:24 PM EDT reply actions
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