Dueling with the Devil a.k.a. Talking with a Yankee fan

by Randy Booth on Aug 21, 2009 11:25 AM EDT in News Comment 40 comments

With the big series starting tonight (big, or bigger?), Edward Valentine from PinstripeAlley.com and I chatted for a bit today regarding both teams and the pivotal series.

After the fisticuffs broke out for a bit, it was actually a really good chat. See what Ed has to say about the how important this series is to the Yankees, whether or not C.C. Sabathia, A.J. Burnett and Mark Teixeira have been worth the money and how great Hideki Irabu really is.

Thank you to our sponsor, Google, for supporting the chat. I <3 Google.

Me: Here's a big umbrella question: how important is this series for the Yankees? We know it's huge for the Sox, but what about NYY? Is there the same impact?

Edward: I don't think so at this point. To be honest, I judge by the fact that I don't even really care that it's the Red Sox this weekend. The Yankees have been incredible for a while now, and I just want to see them continue to play well.

One more thing. I wouldn't mind seeing a sweep and seeing the Yankees bury the Red Sox playoff hopes.

Me: Bury the Sox's playoff hopes, huh? Well they have been playing well recently (7-3 in last 10 games). As far as how big it is for the Sox well, that is obvious. A sweep would be amazing, but 2 out of 3 wouldn't be too shabby either. The Sox will have a work to do with their Nos. 3, 4 and 5 starters doing the work on the mound.

Edward: It's funny, because starting pitching was supposed to be this area where Boston had unmatched depth. I guess it hasn't worked out that way.

Me: No it hasn't, not when Dice-K goes into Hideki Irabu-mode and John Smoltz pulls a post-Dodger Kevin Brown. The good thing is that Josh Beckett and Jon Lester are two of the best and while it'd be nice to have three aces in the playoffs, two could probably do the job as well. How are those starters doing in NY?

Edward: Well, Sabathia has been amazing of late, and Burnett is much better than I thought, even if he is the king of the wild pitch. Since the All-star break, Joba Chamberlain has shown once and for all why the Yankees want him to start. Pettitte has also been good. As for the No. 5, Mitre has mostly gotten to the 5th, 6th inning and that is enough. There is also Chad Gaudin to make some spot starts, so it's been real good.

Me: Speaking of Sabathia and Burnett, and now that we're in August, looking back to the offseason, has Sabathia, Burnett and Mark Teixeira been worth the money so far? Obviously that was the hot talk over the offseason, but do you think they've lived up to first-year expectations?

Edward: Without question, yes. Of course, in New York it's all about October (as it is in Boston), so no matter what they do in the regular season they will be judged by the playoffs.

Edward: I think Teixeira, though, is probably the biggest factor in the whole Yankee-Red Sox thing. The Yankees got him, Boston didn't as we know. And we know what merry-go-round first base has been for Boston, and they have had a hole in the middle of the lineup. Plus, Tex is a wayyyy better defender than I ever thought.

Me: The Red Sox's first base situation really hasn't been a merry-go-round because of any negative reasons, though. They brought in Victor Martinez, who gives the Sox depth and, of course, Terry Francona has to find a way to play him (almost) every day. Kevin Youkilis, if you consider him the Sox's full-time first baseman (he has split a lot lately at third), has actually been our best hitter all season.

Me: As far as that hole in the middle of the lineup ... yes. Definitely. Teixeira's performance would definitely look nice in the middle of the Sox's lineup, but the past is the past. Thankfully, Theo Epstein made a move for Martinez and he's been hitting lights out so far. He's not Teix, but he's a legit hitter -- something I was skeptical of at first, I will admit.

Edward: last thing then I have to run. I believe in my heart that this is the best Yankee team since pre-2004. Starting pitching, bullpen, lineup, versatile bench. The year hasn't gone the way you would like for Boston thus far, but how do you feel about the team's chances overall. Sox are still scary with Beckett and Lester if they get to the playoffs.

Me: I'm feeling ... better. I really have that gut feeling that the Red Sox have gone this far and still haven't clicked yet. Whenever the pitching is on, the offense is off. Whenever the offense is smashing the ball, the pitching falters. There will be a stretch where everything, from top to bottom, is working really well all at once. I think we'll see that before the season is over and I hope the Sox can carry that momentum into the postseason.

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I think saying that the Sox pitching depth has not worked out is pretty off. What would happen to just about any other team if 3 of their 5 starters were either injured or entirely ineffective? Would any other team in the league be in the playoff hunt if that were the case? The value of the Sox depth is that they have been able weather the storm with these pitching injuries and have stayed in the race with a few fill-ins in the rotation.

"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw

by BTLove on Aug 21, 2009 12:18 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Agreed

Also, the top of the Sox rotation has been significantly better than the top of the MFY rotation:

Beckett – 3.38 ERA 3.83 tRA 3.32 FIP 8.26 K/9
Sabathia – 3.58 ERA 4.24 tRA 3.68 FIP 7.05 K/9

Lester – 3.58 ERA 3.29 tRA 3.06 FIP 10.12 K/9
Burnett – 3.69 ERA 5.06 tRA 4.32 FIP 7.91 K/9

I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.

by Drugs Delaney on Aug 21, 2009 12:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The tRA and FIPs are especially revealing

No idea Burnett had such discrepancies between his ERA and advanced stats.

"It's just a tiny little nick, but it hurts when I get champagne in there."
- Jason Bay, on getting spiked scoring the winning run in ALDS Game Four.

by 0157H7 on Aug 21, 2009 12:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Wow

Haven’t seen this comparison before. Our top two are both better than their best. I’m still not sold on Joba as a starter and Burnett is due for his usual non-contract year injury, every day that passes brings him one day closer to an injury. Mitre is well… Mitre and we knocked Pettite around a bit but just didn’t get results.. I wouldn’t say that the Yankees rotation is all that better than our own.

"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.

by Rogue Nine on Aug 21, 2009 1:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Not sold?

2009 Joba (23 Years Old) – 126.2 IP 123 H 56 ER 62 BB ERA+ 112
2002 Beckett (22 Years Old) – 107.2 IP 93 H 46 ER 44 BB ERA+ 98

The reason why I used Beckett is because ESPN cough Jayson Stark cough keeps saying Joba will never be Beckett like the Yankees hope him to be. The reason I used 2002 Beckett is because that is his first FULL year starting. Give 2002 Beckett 20 or so IP and you’ll have comparable stats.

So people writing him off as a bad starter are really short sided. Not saying you are but many people seem to think so. Mainly the NY media which mostly knows jack shit about baseball.

by Lolmoarpl0x on Aug 21, 2009 1:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

You are aware that ERA+ still relies on ERA--right?

Also, why not compare both pitchers at the same age. Here’s how Joba compares to Beckett at 23-years old:

Chamberlain - 126.2 IP 3.98 ERA 5.30 tRA 4.74 FIP 7.74 K/9
Beckett – 142 IP 3.04 ERA 2.92 tRA 2.94 FIP 9.63 K/9

It’s not even close.

I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.

by Drugs Delaney on Aug 21, 2009 2:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

was just writing the same thing

with the title cough stupid cough. You beat me to it…

by Buzzy on Aug 21, 2009 2:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

oh-

and even 2002 Beckett had a 3.69 FIP compared to Joba’s bloated 4.74 which is about what Clay Buchholz’ FIP was last year. Joba has been very very lucky this year.

by Buzzy on Aug 21, 2009 2:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

and

he has the Big Wind Vortex in the Bronx to help him win, which Beckett never had.

by SoxAcumen on Aug 21, 2009 3:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

presumably

that hurts his pitching numbers however.

by Buzzy on Aug 21, 2009 3:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Would hurt his FIP...

Not sure about his tRA.

@bs_uf15bosox9be The Original Gameday; Learn to use SB Nation

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Aug 21, 2009 10:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Wait...

…pitching in a hitter’s park is an advantage to the pitcher now?

I agree. Joba is being made to look better than he is by the offense he gets. But New Yankee Stadium isn’t helping him at all. He’s no Beckett for sure, but let’s not get stupid..

by ivan256 on Aug 21, 2009 3:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yankee Stadium is the biggest homefield advantage in baseball

the Yankees as a team do not scare me, Yankee Stadium scares the hell out of me, since the Yankees will always have the last at bat.

by SoxAcumen on Aug 21, 2009 3:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

But, MFY Stadium doesn't help pitchers

I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.

by Drugs Delaney on Aug 21, 2009 3:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

And a 100 ERA+ for one year =/= 100 ERA+ for another year.

@bs_uf15bosox9be The Original Gameday; Learn to use SB Nation

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Aug 21, 2009 10:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Getting to October, and beyond

all the Sox need is strong offense and more quality starts from Penny, Buchholz, and whoever is pitching fifth (Tazawa, Dice-K, Wake, Byrd?).

In the playoffs, Buchholz will be the key. Beckett is great in October, and Lester has lots of potential (though he got knocked around by the Rays last year). What happens after them will determine . We need a playoff caliber third starter. In 2007, that was Dice-K, who wasn’t great but didn’t ruin our chances of winning.

Wakefield pitching third is completely unacceptable in the playoffs, especially in a 7-game series, where he would pitch twice. Don’t get me wrong, over the course of the season, he’s great, but in October you want someone who isn’t likely to completely lose command of his primary pitch. You also don’t want to face the Angels or Yankees with someone who makes basestealing a cinch.

Why Buchholz? Well, he’s got three plus pitches, and he’s proved to be unhittable when on. Brad “I will throw fastballs 95% of the time” Penny is going to be clobbered in the playoffs unless he varies his repertoire or magically gains 3-4 mph / better movement on the fastball. I don’t trust a Dice-K coming back from injury either.

"It's just a tiny little nick, but it hurts when I get champagne in there."
- Jason Bay, on getting spiked scoring the winning run in ALDS Game Four.

by 0157H7 on Aug 21, 2009 12:37 PM EDT reply actions 2 recs

You, sir, are correct … about everything. Rec’d.

OverTheMonster.com

by Randy Booth on Aug 21, 2009 12:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I agree…
We got sure roster for Playoff in
SP Beckett, Lester, Bucholz,
RP Ramirez, Okajima, Delcarmen, Bard, Saito, Papelbon

we need to get our fourth starter and the long relief between: Penny, Bird, Daice-K and Wake

by BringLugo-back!!! on Aug 21, 2009 12:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Actually

Buchholz has been incredible the past 3 starts with VMart. He gone up against 3 aces and held his own.

As for Dice-K, the guy is a professional and a competitor. Do you really think he wants to go down as a malcontent and a quitter? Give the guy some credit, he made a mistake, but Dice-K has a sterling reputation with Japanese players and coaches as a guy who plays the game the right way.

IMO Dice-K comes back and is committed to doing what the Red Sox tell him and performing at a top level. He might even be the X factor that helps the Sox win the Division and playoffs.

If I had to guess our playoff rotation will be Beckett, Lester, Dice-K and Buchholz. Seriously.

by SoxAcumen on Aug 21, 2009 2:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Who are the three aces he has faced?

I got Halladay.

"Hating the New York Yankees is as American as apple pie, unwed mothers and cheating on your income tax." -- Mike Royko

by sox-inda-south on Aug 21, 2009 5:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Verlander and Sabathia

I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.

by Drugs Delaney on Aug 21, 2009 6:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I’ve been very impressed the way he pitched against those three, most kids would be pretty disheartened to know that they have to out pitch one of those aces to get a W but he went out and gave it his all. He really has matured.

"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.

by Rogue Nine on Aug 21, 2009 6:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

That was surprisingly reasonable...

+1 regarding the comparison of starting pitchers commented on earlier. The unpleasantness against TB and NYY – while it still stings – was almost entirely on the shoulders of the offensive bed-crapping (and John Smoltz). Assuming we’re the wildcard, I like our chances against any team out there…

Rock me, sexy Jesus...

by nuthinboutnuthin on Aug 21, 2009 1:39 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Pitching Matchups for the series

In case anyone wondered
Friday: Andy Pettitte (9-6, 4.09) vs. RHP Brad Penny (7-7, 5.22)

Saturday: A.J. Burnett (10-6, 3.69) vs. RHP Junichi Tazawa (1-2, 5.40)

Sunday: LHP CC Sabathia (14-7, 3.58) vs. RHP Josh Beckett (14-4, 3.38)

by Lolmoarpl0x on Aug 21, 2009 1:56 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I might be the only one

but I don’t think the Yankees have that much of an advantage with the pitching matchups.

Penny is better at home. Pettitte is very hittable. – I think this is even.

Burnett got hammered last start at Fenway. Tazawa has pitched well in his two starts, in the home game he was excellent. – Burnett, but this is not a given.

Beckett is Beckett and CC is Mr. Fold Like a Card Table in big games. They went pretty even at Yankee Stadium v. an injured Red Sox lineup – Beckett.

I don’t know, I just have a feeling the Yankees are not going to have that swagger coming into Fenway after a 3000 mile trip from Oak town and you know The Nation is going to be all over the pinstriped ones.

by SoxAcumen on Aug 21, 2009 2:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

While I'm not sold on Pettitte and Burnett's secondary numbers aren't great

They have a pretty big advantage in the first two games. Tonight’s game is huge. Penny has to bring his A game for the Sox to have a chance—unless, of course, the Sox offense shows up big time. I’ll be at the game tomorrow with my fingers crossed. Tazawa wasn’t good in Texas. He threw batting practice. Right now, he’s very raw—but he battles. I’ll be shocked (in a good way) 0f the Sox get a win tomorrow.

I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.

by Drugs Delaney on Aug 21, 2009 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I thought Tazawa did very well

against one of the best offenses in baseball, in their homerun friendly park, in an important playoff type atmosphere, 100 degrees, without his best lineup behind him.

by SoxAcumen on Aug 21, 2009 3:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Not really

He allowed 13 baserunners (10 hits, 3 walks) in 5 innings, and didn’t strike anyone out. That’s not a good outing. His stuff is very inconsistent right now, but he does battle and has a good mound demeanor.

I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.

by Drugs Delaney on Aug 21, 2009 3:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

LOL

and your experience with dealing with any of those elements? So you can speak about Tazawa’s outing v. other pitchers who are put into similar circumstances?

by SoxAcumen on Aug 21, 2009 3:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Are you related to Tazawa?

By what retarded standard did he pitch well in Texas? He struck nobody out, gave up 2 HR, and had multiple baserunners on in each inning he pitched. As for other pitchers in “similar circumstances” (assuming you mean the weather, ballpark, etc.) , how about Texas starter Dustin Nippert? Nippert wasn’t great, but he was much better than Tazawa. Oki and RamRam pitched 3 solid innings.

If by “similar curcumstances” you mean his second start, that’s fine. No one said pitching in the majors was easy. But by any measure, Tazawa wasn’t good in Texas—and he was pretty lucky he only gave up 4 ER in 5 IP.

I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.

by Drugs Delaney on Aug 21, 2009 3:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs