Bloody Sox Laundry - 8/20/09 - Over the Monster

Bloody Sox Laundry - 8/20/09

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Aug 20, 2009 12:15 AM EDT in Daily Links Comment 9 comments

More photos » by Darren Calabrese - AP

Wake silently pleads to get back on the field.

Going for the sweep today, which would be a nice way to wrap up the road trip. Then we head back to Fenway, where we'll be for a good long while. Perhaps some of the guys we've been missing of late will be back?

Injury updates all around - Extra Bases

Wake's going to pitch in Pawtucket on Friday, and could be back with us after that (!). Francona also put his Benjamin Franklin glasses to use and broke down Wake's nerve condition in detail. Take that, ~~Johnny Cash~~ Joe Maddon.

Extra Bases also thinks Dice-K will return on September 9th, based on his current rehab schedule and our schedule - we're off on the 10th, so the pen could be ready to put out the fire.

Tek's day-to-day, Rocco should be back on Friday (1st eligible day), and Kott had a good night last night - see USG for details, kids.

Not mentioned in that link, but elsewhere, Pedroia will be back today.

More after the jump - The Book's blog goes through multiple attempts to answer some recent UZR criticisms, the Tek vs. Vic battle heats up, and should we have let Smoltz go?

Starting from that last bit, since it will be the most contested, here's what Harry Pavlidis and other BtBers have to say:

John Smoltz: What's Left in the Tank? - Beyond the Box Score
Now that he's on the Cards, time to take the retrospective look back and see whether or not we should have given him more time. Read the comments as well, to get the full story.

I'll leave it up to y'all to start the debate if you want to, but that's some strong evidence that we weren't patient enough. Onto another sabermetric topic that requires patience - should we be using UZR? Or are we just doing it wrong?

If a metric for a player is "all over the place" after a few years, what does that mean? - Inside The Book
Straight from the... keyboard of UZR's creator, here's MGL's semi-defense of his metric and it's variance. And then, a few hours later...

Is UZR limited because the baseline is zeroed-out to that year’s average? - Inside The Book

Kinda what I was talking about a few days ago - but they weren't done there. No, they went on to provide more evidence using the actual UZR data from the past three years (about the recommended sample size, naturally):

Best-fielding 1B over the last 3 years - Inside The Book
Shows that, with a large enough sample size, UZR generally agrees with perception. Lost in the middle of all the UZR posts at The Book, there was this:

Awards schmawards - Inside The Book

YAY, baseball writers bashing! Always fun. Although, the "experts" do seem to have a good grasp on the intangibles. Maybe that's why we've been seeing all the material about the decision between starting Tek or Vic at catcher.

Victor or Varitek? - Full Count
Two quick polls by WEEI - but, before you vote, I present a moving piece on why Tek should be your choice, for the second question, at least:

Varitek’s value - Clubhouse Insider

"Vick [sic] did a great job. My stuff didn’t equal what he was doing," said Beckett, who noted that Martinez caught Cy Young Award winners C.C. Sabathia and Cliff Lee in Cleveland, "so he must be doing something right."

Oh, so he could play receiver. But seriously, I don't know if I want Vic learning to catch the best stuff on the team when we're in the middle of a pennant race - like Papi says, "Simple."

For Ortiz, simple is best - Extra Bases

Aside from one unloading of his frustrations, Ortiz has kept most his feelings to himself, his comments quiet and short. But one gets the sense that hitting a low point or talking with Kalkstein or some combination of the two helped Ortiz restart himself. He is swinging with confidence and conviction, and over a short time span, he has reasserted himself as a force in the Sox lineup.

No real transition here... To the prospects!

Players of the Week, August 10-16: Daniel Nava & Derrick Loop - SoxProspects.com

Ecstatic Truth Pitchf/x: Daniel Bard’s slider - THT Live

Yes, Bard counts as a prospect still. And this article is the opposite of my Pitch F/X stuff - minimal graphs, and actually writing. Oh, and it's ghost written by a German filmmaker. I don't know, either.

Drop links in the comments, or just discuss the links I've shared.

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Comments

didn't give up on Smoltz too quickly

He had, what, 9 or 10 starts, of which only one could be considered acceptable. Lefties were absolutely slaughtering him.

I cannot see him working as a starter in St. Louis unless Dave Duncan finds a way to solve his major problems. Clearly that wasn’t happening in Boston. Not only was he losing every fifth start, he was also taxing the bullpen.

I also think the stability following his departure has been good for Buchholz, who has been pitching much better in his last few starts.

by RickD on Aug 20, 2009 12:35 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Quoting VEP's comment here:

Smoltz has a .466 BABIP against lefties

But yeah, I’ll take this Buch over Smoltz.

@bs_uf15bosox9be The Original Gameday; Learn to use SB Nation

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Aug 20, 2009 12:41 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

You should read this

http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/sample_size_and_granularity_of_data/

Smoltz’s performance, against both lefties and righties, is almost useless this year in projecting him going forward. Instead, you need to take a look at him in a scouting perspective, or use less granular data such as pitch f/x data.

That data shows that his velocity and movement on his pitches remain good, and he is generating swings and misses at an above average rate. His contact rate is 2% below average and his swinging strike rate is 2.5% above league average. Furthermore, he is getting a lot of swings on pitches outside of the strike zone. I would suspect that data is much more meaningful, due to the fact that it is subject to less variance and stabilizes quicker, and it implies that his stuff remains good.

Of course, stuff is only once piece of the puzzle. Control is another story, and one that is significantly harder to measure. Here is Smoltz’ location of pitches:

And an average pitchers:

Smoltz’s has thrown almost exactly the same ammount of pitches inside of the strike zone as a league average pitcher, but an average pitcher has thrown over 2% more pitches in the upper third of the strike zone. Smoltz has also been hitting the middle section of the plate more, and throwing to the third base side when he does.

This obviously ins’t a complete analysis. That would entail breaking it up by batter hand, and pitch type. But this is the kind of thing you have to do if you want to make conclusions from a small sample of data.

Looking at his splits or other “normal” numbers is NOT correct in the situation.

Thanks

by vivaelpujols on Aug 20, 2009 3:44 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Insider only, but...

Keith Law names the best and worst draft teams of the year.

Red Sox come in 3rd behind the D-Backs and Twins. Yanks and O’s somewhere between 10th and 25th. Jays and Rays bottom 5.

by USG on Aug 20, 2009 11:52 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

And the Red Sox section of the post.

3. Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox landed four players from my top 100 as well as three more (David Renfroe, Brandon Jacobs, and Miles Head) who would have been in the next 30-40 names on the list. They added a substantial amount of high-upside talent to the lower levels of their system but didn’t add any higher-probability, star-caliber prospects like they did last year with Casey Kelly and Ryan Westmoreland. Opinions on their first pick, Reymond Fuentes, were somewhat mixed, as he’s slight and his arm has been inconsistent, but he shows good aptitude for hitting and for playing center field. Renfroe received the highest bonus, as he had a strong commitment to Ole Miss; he’s a very athletic two-way player but is raw both as a hitter and a right-handed pitcher.

Dunno what our policy is on not reposting insider stuff, so if this or even the earlier summary isn’t allowed, drop me a line.

by USG on Aug 20, 2009 11:53 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well, if they didn't have such a stupid registration setup, they'd have at least one more customer.

If I already have The Mag, and an Insider subscription’s included, then what the bloody hell do you need my credit card number for? Either get it from the Mag, or ASK me when it runs out.

@bs_uf15bosox9be The Original Gameday; Learn to use SB Nation

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Aug 20, 2009 6:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs