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Around SBN: Strikeforce: Cormier vs. Barnett Fight Video Highlights

The Biggest UZR: Our Sinister Defense

The ancient Romans were a superstitious lot. The Latin adjective for "left" is "sinister," and the word had all of the negative connotations then that it does now. Furthermore, left-handed individuals were barred from serving in the Roman legions, one of the pillars of their society. Indeed, in societies throughout the world, left-handedness and more generally leftness have often been viewed with suspicion, antagonism, and fear.

Why do I bring this up? Well, the problems for the Red Sox defense are, for the most part, on the left. The numbers don't lie:

LF Jason Bay: -14.1 runs in 107 games. -14.5 runs per 150 games
3B Mike Lowell: -9.9 runs in 81 games, -16.1 runs / 150 g
3B Kevin Youkilis: -1.7 runs in 37 games, -8.2 runs /150 g
 and the dearly departed
SS Julio Lugo: -8.2 runs in 32 games, -41.9 runs /150 g

The exceptions to this yawning chasm on the left are two of the players at SS (four if you count Chris Woodward and Gil Velasquez, which I won't) - Jed Lowrie and Nick Green. Green has been 4.5 runs above average in his 76 games at SS (8.0 runs / 150 games), while Lowrie has been 2.8 runs above average in 18 games (21.7 runs / 150 games). Aside: I'm somewhat disappointed Green hasn't lost more in his UZR rating the past few weeks; failing to turn two routine double plays in the Tazawa start should have been more costly.

In the up-the-middle positions, we have three catchers who can't throw out anyone; sadly catcher defense isn't rated on UZR. Moreover, Jacoby Ellsbury is having a terrible year: -8.5 runs in 107 innings (-13.2 runs in 150 games). Last year, Ells was above-average in CF (3.0 runs in 66 games), and superb in LF (9.3 runs in 58 g). As an aside, I think the lack of speedy LFs makes it easier for a Crisp or Ellsbury to excel there, because the standard of competition is lower. UZR compares fielders to the average of their peers at that position, and it's better to be compared to slow OFs like Jason Bay and Manny Ramirez than other speedy CFs.

So the good defense, aside from Green, is concentrated on the right. Dustin Pedroia (8.4), JD Drew (8.0) and Kevin Youkilis (4.5, 12.0 /150g) lead the team in UZR.

The acquisition of Casey Kotchman should improve team defense slightly, again on the right side of the field. Kotch has been a great defender over his brief career: in 442 games, his UZR at 1B is 8.9 runs above average (3.2 per 150 games). On the year, he's at 3.8 runs above average, or 6.0 runs per 150 games. Martinez may be a better first baseman than catcher, but he doesn't hold a candle to Youk or Kotch when it comes to defense.

Poll
Should Theo have tried to get someone to improve defense on the left side of the field?
Yes. This has been a problem all year long, and something should've been done.
34 votes
No. He had no way of knowing Lowrie would go down, and there wasn't much available anyway.
18 votes
Actually, he did. The acquisition of Kotchman gives them depth and lets them rest Lowell, and move Youk (who is less bad) to third.
24 votes
I don't know / care. Defense isn't my thing.
3 votes
Novus Yorkus Delenda Est!
13 votes

92 votes | Poll has closed

Comment 22 comments  |  0 recs  | 

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Pretty good post too.

Bay + Ells are still seeming to be the product of an unfriendly metric, esp. in Fenway.
Bay was bad, but not this bad, in Pittsburgh – his UZR was even positive in 2006. Ells, on the other hand, might be a little more cautious, but he can’t really 14+ runs worse this year.

by bdalebs on Aug 14, 2009 11:27 AM EDT up reply actions  

What

is the average UZR for LF/CF at Fenway over the last few years, leaving names out?

Ian Browne aspires to be like me.

by jkeough on Aug 14, 2009 11:37 AM EDT up reply actions  

Let's see

In CF, Crisp was below average in 2008, and way above average in 2007. As I posted above, Ells was great in LF in limited time, but Manny and Bay both suck in LF, which is no surprise since they are both terrible defenders.

Ok, fine, I’ll do some more research. Wily Mo Pena (remember him?) was slightly above average in LF in 2006, and slightly below average in CF that year. Johnny Damon was above average in CF only in 2002; for the rest of his career in Boston he was below average to godawful. This trend continued in New York.

Those are all the recent OFs I can think of who spent significant time in LF or CF. You think of anyone else, just search their name in Fangraphs, and click on Fielding.

"It's just a tiny little nick, but it hurts when I get champagne in there."
- Jason Bay, on getting spiked scoring the winning run in ALDS Game Four.

by 0157H7 on Aug 14, 2009 11:56 AM EDT up reply actions  

I was thinking

more along the lines of the avg UZR for the positions at Fenway instead of the varied players individual ratings, and then compare it to other ballparks. Ooh, I just might have fixed UZR. Ballpark differential. Has to be included with places like Fenway, Houston. I bet Oakland produces higher UZR’s because of the extra foul territory, stuff like that. Not that it matters but I think Ellsbury has played a pretty good center field this year although he has been more conservative coming towards the infield versus last year. Bay flat out sucks. Serioulsy, he makes the catchs, but he plays too deep. Hasn’t really figured out the Monster yet. But Drew is playing great.

Ian Browne aspires to be like me.

by jkeough on Aug 14, 2009 1:19 PM EDT up reply actions  

Find MGL (or Lichtman, as is his given name) and tell him.

He’ll probably reply that he’s thought of that a couple years ago.

by bdalebs on Aug 14, 2009 2:28 PM EDT up reply actions  

They make park adjustments. And I think they especailly cover things like foul territory. It gets wierd though because Fenway’s dimensions in LF are so unique. There really isn’t any other park like it.

"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw

by BTLove on Aug 14, 2009 4:53 PM EDT up reply actions  

UZR hasn't yet learned how to deal with wall-balls.

It just thinks the ball landed there like a line drive, basically.

by bdalebs on Aug 14, 2009 12:37 PM EDT up reply actions  

Agreed

It also doesn’t compensate for weird shaped outfield walls, like the centerfield triangle. It doesn’t realize that OF have to slow down to not kill themselves running into the walls they can’t see.

by drabidea on Aug 14, 2009 2:05 PM EDT up reply actions  

One more defensive shortcoming

Our arms are HORRENDOUS, all over the field. Tek, Bay, and Jacoby’s arms have cost us alot this year. It seems like every day someone will get a single, steal second because Tek can’t throw them out. Then on short blooper to the outfield go home from second because they know Bay or Jacoby can’t throw anyone out.

by drabidea on Aug 14, 2009 12:37 PM EDT reply actions  

Thats actually a good point

Does this explain Ellsburys bad UZR? I mean there are not many guys in the league who can cover more ground then he can. Cause when i watch Sox games Jacoby is making great catches on a regular basis. I just cant believe he is a below-average CF although UZR says so

by German Red Sox Fan on Aug 14, 2009 3:57 PM EDT up reply actions  

Pretty sure none of the zone ratings

count arm strength or the quality of throws.

"It's just a tiny little nick, but it hurts when I get champagne in there."
- Jason Bay, on getting spiked scoring the winning run in ALDS Game Four.

by 0157H7 on Aug 14, 2009 4:04 PM EDT up reply actions  

I stand corrected.

"It's just a tiny little nick, but it hurts when I get champagne in there."
- Jason Bay, on getting spiked scoring the winning run in ALDS Game Four.

by 0157H7 on Aug 14, 2009 8:22 PM EDT up reply actions  

That's what I'm here for.

And you’ve got the funniness to make stats something the common fan wants to read.

by bdalebs on Aug 14, 2009 11:12 PM EDT up reply actions  

So how do they come up with the rangeruns?

His UZR of -11.4 is -2.5 Arm, -8.5 Range and -0.4 Errors. I admit i hardly watch any other teams than the Red Sox but i cant believe that Ells has a bad range in center compared to other CF. You often said UZR is not so good for Outfielders. This has te be one of this cases right? I have no real statistical proof but by just watching Ells in center u can tell hes has great range.

by German Red Sox Fan on Aug 15, 2009 2:00 AM EDT up reply actions  

It could be.

Let me try to explain it, from what I understand.
MGL has the field broken down into “buckets”, in which the odds of any given player on the field converting the ball into an out are calculated. Say if a ball hit to bucket “X” is converted by a CF 80% of the time, then Ells would get 0.2 runs for making the play, because he made a play that 20% of his peers couldn’t. If he can’t make the play, for whatever reason, then he’s credited with -0.8 runs.
Once all those plays are added up, they break them down by how the play was/wasn’t made. I’m not sure how the arm component works, and I’m not completely sure how the error component works (I get how you could have negative error runs, but positive is beyond me).
Range is relatively easy – either you make the catch or not, and since plays further from the fielder are made less often, you get more credit for making those, while closer plays cost you more since more people make them.

The problems come from the data available to the formula – no record of bouncing off walls, lack of positioning data (both screwing Fenway’s LF), ball speed, ball spin, IIRC. That data could be available relatively soon though, through a combination of Hit F/X (think Pitch F/X, but tracking the ball going out instead of coming in) and a MIND BLOWING full-field tracking system. The latter is talked about here – watch the video and tell me you don’t get butterflies.

by bdalebs on Aug 15, 2009 2:56 AM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

thx for the explanation

as stated above i believe Uzr sucks here and Ells is a great defensive CF

by German Red Sox Fan on Aug 15, 2009 8:35 AM EDT up reply actions  

He has seemed a little more cautious this year though.

And it could also be the product of more guys running on him.

by bdalebs on Aug 16, 2009 1:56 AM EDT up reply actions  

Holy

Breakdown batman.

Ian Browne aspires to be like me.

by jkeough on Aug 15, 2009 11:13 AM EDT up reply actions  

MGL can probably fill your screen with 6 pt typing describing it.

It’s a great stat, but it needs better data, which may be on the way if the system in that video is implemented soon.

by bdalebs on Aug 16, 2009 1:56 AM EDT up reply actions  

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