The Biggest UZR: Our Sinister Defense
The ancient Romans were a superstitious lot. The Latin adjective for "left" is "sinister," and the word had all of the negative connotations then that it does now. Furthermore, left-handed individuals were barred from serving in the Roman legions, one of the pillars of their society. Indeed, in societies throughout the world, left-handedness and more generally leftness have often been viewed with suspicion, antagonism, and fear.
Why do I bring this up? Well, the problems for the Red Sox defense are, for the most part, on the left. The numbers don't lie:
LF Jason Bay: -14.1 runs in 107 games. -14.5 runs per 150 games
3B Mike Lowell: -9.9 runs in 81 games, -16.1 runs / 150 g
3B Kevin Youkilis: -1.7 runs in 37 games, -8.2 runs /150 g
and the dearly departed
SS Julio Lugo: -8.2 runs in 32 games, -41.9 runs /150 g
The exceptions to this yawning chasm on the left are two of the players at SS (four if you count Chris Woodward and Gil Velasquez, which I won't) - Jed Lowrie and Nick Green. Green has been 4.5 runs above average in his 76 games at SS (8.0 runs / 150 games), while Lowrie has been 2.8 runs above average in 18 games (21.7 runs / 150 games). Aside: I'm somewhat disappointed Green hasn't lost more in his UZR rating the past few weeks; failing to turn two routine double plays in the Tazawa start should have been more costly.
In the up-the-middle positions, we have three catchers who can't throw out anyone; sadly catcher defense isn't rated on UZR. Moreover, Jacoby Ellsbury is having a terrible year: -8.5 runs in 107 innings (-13.2 runs in 150 games). Last year, Ells was above-average in CF (3.0 runs in 66 games), and superb in LF (9.3 runs in 58 g). As an aside, I think the lack of speedy LFs makes it easier for a Crisp or Ellsbury to excel there, because the standard of competition is lower. UZR compares fielders to the average of their peers at that position, and it's better to be compared to slow OFs like Jason Bay and Manny Ramirez than other speedy CFs.
So the good defense, aside from Green, is concentrated on the right. Dustin Pedroia (8.4), JD Drew (8.0) and Kevin Youkilis (4.5, 12.0 /150g) lead the team in UZR.
The acquisition of Casey Kotchman should improve team defense slightly, again on the right side of the field. Kotch has been a great defender over his brief career: in 442 games, his UZR at 1B is 8.9 runs above average (3.2 per 150 games). On the year, he's at 3.8 runs above average, or 6.0 runs per 150 games. Martinez may be a better first baseman than catcher, but he doesn't hold a candle to Youk or Kotch when it comes to defense.
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Whoops, sorry, E-Coli, didn't mean to bump your post down.
@bs_uf15bosox9be The Original Gameday; Learn to use SB Nation
Pretty good post too.
Bay + Ells are still seeming to be the product of an unfriendly metric, esp. in Fenway.
Bay was bad, but not this bad, in Pittsburgh – his UZR was even positive in 2006. Ells, on the other hand, might be a little more cautious, but he can’t really 14+ runs worse this year.
@bs_uf15bosox9be The Original Gameday; Learn to use SB Nation
What
is the average UZR for LF/CF at Fenway over the last few years, leaving names out?
Ian Browne aspires to be like me.
Let's see
In CF, Crisp was below average in 2008, and way above average in 2007. As I posted above, Ells was great in LF in limited time, but Manny and Bay both suck in LF, which is no surprise since they are both terrible defenders.
Ok, fine, I’ll do some more research. Wily Mo Pena (remember him?) was slightly above average in LF in 2006, and slightly below average in CF that year. Johnny Damon was above average in CF only in 2002; for the rest of his career in Boston he was below average to godawful. This trend continued in New York.
Those are all the recent OFs I can think of who spent significant time in LF or CF. You think of anyone else, just search their name in Fangraphs, and click on Fielding.
"It's just a tiny little nick, but it hurts when I get champagne in there."
- Jason Bay, on getting spiked scoring the winning run in ALDS Game Four.
I was thinking
more along the lines of the avg UZR for the positions at Fenway instead of the varied players individual ratings, and then compare it to other ballparks. Ooh, I just might have fixed UZR. Ballpark differential. Has to be included with places like Fenway, Houston. I bet Oakland produces higher UZR’s because of the extra foul territory, stuff like that. Not that it matters but I think Ellsbury has played a pretty good center field this year although he has been more conservative coming towards the infield versus last year. Bay flat out sucks. Serioulsy, he makes the catchs, but he plays too deep. Hasn’t really figured out the Monster yet. But Drew is playing great.
Ian Browne aspires to be like me.
Find MGL (or Lichtman, as is his given name) and tell him.
He’ll probably reply that he’s thought of that a couple years ago.
@bs_uf15bosox9be The Original Gameday; Learn to use SB Nation
They make park adjustments. And I think they especailly cover things like foul territory. It gets wierd though because Fenway’s dimensions in LF are so unique. There really isn’t any other park like it.
"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw
UZR hasn't yet learned how to deal with wall-balls.
It just thinks the ball landed there like a line drive, basically.
@bs_uf15bosox9be The Original Gameday; Learn to use SB Nation
One more defensive shortcoming
Our arms are HORRENDOUS, all over the field. Tek, Bay, and Jacoby’s arms have cost us alot this year. It seems like every day someone will get a single, steal second because Tek can’t throw them out. Then on short blooper to the outfield go home from second because they know Bay or Jacoby can’t throw anyone out.
Thats actually a good point
Does this explain Ellsburys bad UZR? I mean there are not many guys in the league who can cover more ground then he can. Cause when i watch Sox games Jacoby is making great catches on a regular basis. I just cant believe he is a below-average CF although UZR says so
by German Red Sox Fan on Aug 14, 2009 3:57 PM EDT up reply actions
Pretty sure none of the zone ratings
count arm strength or the quality of throws.
"It's just a tiny little nick, but it hurts when I get champagne in there."
- Jason Bay, on getting spiked scoring the winning run in ALDS Game Four.
Umm... E-Coli?
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4727&position=OF#fielding
Check the 6th column from the right.
@bs_uf15bosox9be The Original Gameday; Learn to use SB Nation
I stand corrected.
"It's just a tiny little nick, but it hurts when I get champagne in there."
- Jason Bay, on getting spiked scoring the winning run in ALDS Game Four.
That's what I'm here for.
And you’ve got the funniness to make stats something the common fan wants to read.
@bs_uf15bosox9be The Original Gameday; Learn to use SB Nation
So how do they come up with the rangeruns?
His UZR of -11.4 is -2.5 Arm, -8.5 Range and -0.4 Errors. I admit i hardly watch any other teams than the Red Sox but i cant believe that Ells has a bad range in center compared to other CF. You often said UZR is not so good for Outfielders. This has te be one of this cases right? I have no real statistical proof but by just watching Ells in center u can tell hes has great range.
by German Red Sox Fan on Aug 15, 2009 2:00 AM EDT up reply actions
It could be.
Let me try to explain it, from what I understand.
MGL has the field broken down into “buckets”, in which the odds of any given player on the field converting the ball into an out are calculated. Say if a ball hit to bucket “X” is converted by a CF 80% of the time, then Ells would get 0.2 runs for making the play, because he made a play that 20% of his peers couldn’t. If he can’t make the play, for whatever reason, then he’s credited with -0.8 runs.
Once all those plays are added up, they break them down by how the play was/wasn’t made. I’m not sure how the arm component works, and I’m not completely sure how the error component works (I get how you could have negative error runs, but positive is beyond me).
Range is relatively easy – either you make the catch or not, and since plays further from the fielder are made less often, you get more credit for making those, while closer plays cost you more since more people make them.
The problems come from the data available to the formula – no record of bouncing off walls, lack of positioning data (both screwing Fenway’s LF), ball speed, ball spin, IIRC. That data could be available relatively soon though, through a combination of Hit F/X (think Pitch F/X, but tracking the ball going out instead of coming in) and a MIND BLOWING full-field tracking system. The latter is talked about here – watch the video and tell me you don’t get butterflies.
@bs_uf15bosox9be The Original Gameday; Learn to use SB Nation
by bdalebs on Aug 15, 2009 2:56 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Also, anyone with a better knowledge of how UZR works, please correct me.
More concerned with getting the right info than being right myself.
@bs_uf15bosox9be The Original Gameday; Learn to use SB Nation
thx for the explanation
as stated above i believe Uzr sucks here and Ells is a great defensive CF
by German Red Sox Fan on Aug 15, 2009 8:35 AM EDT up reply actions
He has seemed a little more cautious this year though.
And it could also be the product of more guys running on him.
@bs_uf15bosox9be The Original Gameday; Learn to use SB Nation
MGL can probably fill your screen with 6 pt typing describing it.
It’s a great stat, but it needs better data, which may be on the way if the system in that video is implemented soon.
@bs_uf15bosox9be The Original Gameday; Learn to use SB Nation

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