Gamestory: Bay's Resurgence, Lowell Takes A Stand Against Violence, Beckett Gets The Arbitrary W
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Aug 12, 2009 11:06 PM EDT
in Game Stories
69 comments
SCOREBOARD WATCHING
The winning streak is now up to 3 games, with help from the Detroit Tigers. Unfortunately, the MFY won today,
so we don't pull any closer in the AL East. The Rays lost though, so there's that. Now if only the Rangers had lost, we'd be more than 1.5 games ahead in the Wild Card.
OFFENSIVE HIGHLIGHTS
Jason Bay and Mike Lowell continued their offensive shows, going 3/3 + 2 BB with a 2 run home run (and 2 doubles) and 3/4 with a solo home run, respectively. Other Sox reaching base were: Dustin Pedroia (1/5), David Ortiz (1/4 + BB), JD Drew (1/3 + BB), Casey Kotchman (1/4), and Nick Green (1/4 - garbage time double).
PITCHING HIGHLIGHTS
Josh Beckett went 7.0 innings on 97 pitches, giving up 3 hits, 1 walk, and only 2 runs on two solo home runs. He wasn't striking out a lot of guys tonight, tallying only 6 K's. Hideki Okajima and Ramon Ramirez worked a perfect and hitless inning, respectively, with 2 strikeouts each.
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I don't care how many K's he gets
If he can go out every time and get 7 innings giving up only 2 runs? That will always be fine with me, because it means the Sox have a good chance to win.
Besides, it’s hard to get lots of K’s without running up some pitch counts.
by lone1c on Aug 12, 2009 11:41 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
True.
Just saying he wasn’t trying to run guys over like normal.
@bs_uf15bosox9be The Original Gameday; Learn to use SB Nation
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Aug 13, 2009 12:27 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
But high K numbers are generally correlated with low ERA’s.
"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw
by BTLove on Aug 13, 2009 1:25 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'd rather have the actual stats
Rather than the stats that are correlated.
by lone1c on Aug 13, 2009 8:14 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The point of looking at K and BB numbers is:
that they are more predictive of future performance than ERA. Early in the season, Lester and Beckett were both giving up runs. However, many of us noticed their high K rates and low BB rates so we were fairly confident of their future success. At the same time, we looked at Dice-K’s peripherals and could tell he was in trouble. And guess what happened…
"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw
by BTLove on Aug 13, 2009 11:21 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Dice-K never pitched well this season.
That was evident to anyone watching him, peripherals or not.
"It's just a tiny little nick, but it hurts when I get champagne in there."
- Jason Bay, on getting spiked scoring the winning run in ALDS Game Four.
by 0157H7 on Aug 13, 2009 11:35 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The point is that Dice, Beckett and Lester were all giving up runs, but using peripherals, it was clear that Beckett and Lester were unlucky while Dice was actually sucking.
"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw
by BTLove on Aug 13, 2009 12:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
yes
I understand the point. However, DiceK had very funny peripherals more than just sucky ones. His K/BB numbers were actually better than last year. He had a severly high BAPIP, a high LD%age (almost 10 points up from his first 2 years), gave up a lot of HRs and had a bad LOB%. If you didn’t know about the LD% and did not watch him pitch, you could say he was having a fit of the fluctuations. His HR/FB% was high but not like Lester’s, his LD% was very high, and when you watched it was clear he was leaving all kinds of stuff right over the plate. So it is a case where watching +closer inspection of the peripherals tells a clearer story.
by Buzzy on Aug 13, 2009 12:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Exactly.
He over-regressed from last season.
@bs_uf15bosox9be The Original Gameday; Learn to use SB Nation
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Aug 13, 2009 12:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Unluckiness is no guarantee the player will snap out of it.
Beckett was unlucky all of last season. That didn’t make his performance better.
"It's just a tiny little nick, but it hurts when I get champagne in there."
- Jason Bay, on getting spiked scoring the winning run in ALDS Game Four.
by 0157H7 on Aug 13, 2009 1:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
True
of course. BT’s point (which I know you understand) is that standard stats and peripherals are for different things. ERA and the like tell you how much success you had, while peripherals are used to try as best as possible to predict how much success you will have. You could also say that peripherals tell you how well you really pitched (eg Verlander has really been much better than Jackson this year even though his ERA is nearly a point higher) but that is something most tradionally minded fans would debate. Either way one type of statistic is not the replacement for the other.
by Buzzy on Aug 13, 2009 1:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Bay heating up a little?
Couldn’t have happened at a better time
by South Coast Ghost on Aug 12, 2009 11:51 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Don't care what anyone else thinks, but
They need to sit Papi as much as possible once Youk comes back. As a DH, he’s just killing this team. Or at the very least, he needs to be shifted back to 6th in the order. With V-mart, kotchman, youk, lowell and Tek in the c/1b/3b rotation, there is no space for a lumbering DH with no defensive value. I’ve given this enough time and I am now convinced that he’s a spent force. Lowell and Bay seem to be getting warm again and v-mart will just do his thing. Papi is the odd(underperforming) man out.
by sydneysox on Aug 13, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
you want a DH with defensive value?
I’m confused.
by RickD on Aug 13, 2009 12:03 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
No
I want a DH who can hit. But since we don’t have that, I’d rather have a player who has some value. Papi has very little value right now because he can neither hit nor field. The DH spot is great because you can give a guy like Lowell a chance to just swing a hot bat as he’s not providing much value in the field right now. With Papi, you have no option.
by sydneysox on Aug 13, 2009 12:21 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
So long as you don't have to put the DH into the field
As soon as the DH becomes a defensive replacement, you’re hosed, because you lose the DH for the rest of the game.
Having Papi on the bench is taking a risk. That said, I’d be all in favor of moving Papi back down in the order.
by lone1c on Aug 13, 2009 12:25 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The idea is that it precludes rotating him out on a game-by-game basis
Without benching him entirely.
by USG on Aug 13, 2009 12:27 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Couldn't they do a double switch?
Move Papi to DH, move Lowell to 3B? Or does that only work with the pitcher being substituted?
@bs_uf15bosox9be The Original Gameday; Learn to use SB Nation
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Aug 13, 2009 12:36 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If you put the DH in the field
You lose the spot for the game.
by USG on Aug 13, 2009 12:41 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hmm.
I really need to study up on these rules.
@bs_uf15bosox9be The Original Gameday; Learn to use SB Nation
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Aug 13, 2009 1:25 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
tampa bay
lost their DH earlier this year for that reason. their pitcher had to hit
I'm scared
by revived0103 on Aug 13, 2009 3:46 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Are you sure you're not talking about the time that Joe Maddon just listed 2 DHs?
by USG on Aug 13, 2009 6:00 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
USG's right.
"You know you're having a bad day when the fifth inning rolls around and they drag the warning track." - Mike Flanagan, Baltimore Orioles pitcher, 1992.
by SoxDevil on Aug 13, 2009 9:53 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Maddon listed 2 third basement and lost his DH.
"You know you're having a bad day when the fifth inning rolls around and they drag the warning track." - Mike Flanagan, Baltimore Orioles pitcher, 1992.
by SoxDevil on Aug 13, 2009 9:53 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think revived was talking about not knowing the rules.
Which doesn’t really make sense in this case either, as it was a mistake…
@bs_uf15bosox9be The Original Gameday; Learn to use SB Nation
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Aug 13, 2009 1:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
And it happened to the Twins in that game with the ejections
Mauer had to catch, and they lost the DH
Fear the Rebel Polar Bears (trust me, this sig makes sense)
by crabchowdah on Aug 13, 2009 10:47 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
but why
do you bring up his defense? If he’s DHing, that’s irrelevant.
Lowell’s defensive value as a DH is no better than Papi’s.
by RickD on Aug 13, 2009 12:27 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
the point is
that his OVERALL value is much lower because he has no defensive value. At least Lowell could play some 3rd and 1st. Also, right now with the players we have who can now DH, his value is below both Lowell and V-mart
by sydneysox on Aug 13, 2009 12:41 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
VMart hasn't been much of an offensive force
In Cleveland, he hit .211 AVG/.303 OBP/.378 SLG (.681 OPS) after June 1st. He has been a bit better for Boston, but still hasn’t been very good: .261 AVG/.320 OBP/.435 SLG (.755 OPS).
Mike Lowell has been the Sox’ best hitter since the ASB (1.123 OPS).
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Aug 13, 2009 10:03 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
SSS is affecting VMart
He’s had quite a few line outs.
by USG on Aug 13, 2009 10:11 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
And a lot of ground ball singles
And a double in Baltimore that should have been scored an error.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Aug 13, 2009 10:26 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ramirez did not pitch a perfect ninth
An HBP normally excludes use of the word “perfect” to describe an outing. But he didn’t give up any hits.
by lone1c on Aug 13, 2009 12:24 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
with the proviso
if he’d hit ARod, that would’ve been perfect
by RickD on Aug 13, 2009 12:28 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ah, whoops.
Forgot about that. Going to edit it.
@bs_uf15bosox9be The Original Gameday; Learn to use SB Nation
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Aug 13, 2009 12:28 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
BS, good to have you as an author.
and who is soxstats and why is he an author?
"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw
by BTLove on Aug 13, 2009 1:28 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Soxstats is the most brilliant sports writer of all time.
Accordingly, he’s far too busy to contribute to the site. He’s listed here because Randy decided we need more writers who never write anything.
"It's just a tiny little nick, but it hurts when I get champagne in there."
- Jason Bay, on getting spiked scoring the winning run in ALDS Game Four.
by 0157H7 on Aug 13, 2009 9:24 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
ZING!
:-(
"You know you're having a bad day when the fifth inning rolls around and they drag the warning track." - Mike Flanagan, Baltimore Orioles pitcher, 1992.
by SoxDevil on Aug 13, 2009 9:54 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hey, I include myself here
I haven’t written anything in a while. Stupid having a real job…
"It's just a tiny little nick, but it hurts when I get champagne in there."
- Jason Bay, on getting spiked scoring the winning run in ALDS Game Four.
by 0157H7 on Aug 13, 2009 10:15 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, none of that for me.
Though I’ll have a fake job and school in a couple weeks.
by USG on Aug 13, 2009 10:24 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hey, I'm supposed to be reading books for the next two weeks.
Wait, I could’ve read those earlier this summer…
@bs_uf15bosox9be The Original Gameday; Learn to use SB Nation
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Aug 13, 2009 1:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Eventually you will realize that “having to read books” is not the worst thing in the world. But probably not unil you’re out of college.
"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw
by BTLove on Aug 13, 2009 3:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Nah, I like reading.
I just like reading about the Sox better.
@bs_uf15bosox9be The Original Gameday; Learn to use SB Nation
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Aug 13, 2009 5:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks.
I’m not sure why he hasn’t posted anything yet. Hopefully my use of advanced statistics in place of normal stats will convince him to post some stuff.
@bs_uf15bosox9be The Original Gameday; Learn to use SB Nation
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Aug 13, 2009 1:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Big and slow
Ortiz was big and quick, now he’s big and slow. I hit well for one month, but I believe he’s paid to hit for more than one month a season. Having a DH with the teams lowest BA with RISP kills the offense. Drew is almost as bad.
by Old Fan on Aug 13, 2009 8:07 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Drew is NOT almost as bad.
He’s a plus defensive fielder with a .375 OBP.
by USG on Aug 13, 2009 9:22 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Correct me if Im wrong but I think he meant Drew’s BA with RISP is almost as bad as Papis…. I could be reading it wrong though
Fehr is fair, but I like Laich
by amkcaps on Aug 13, 2009 10:03 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
And ...
Nick Green has a .296 BA w/ runners in scoring position.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Aug 13, 2009 10:06 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
And we wonder why everybody hates him so much…..
Fehr is fair, but I like Laich
by amkcaps on Aug 13, 2009 10:33 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Because he is a bad hitter
His defense is underrated, though. No doubt, Green has been valuable for the Sox. But there’s a reason why he is a journeyman bench player.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Aug 13, 2009 10:36 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ah, OK, that would be fair.
Though his OBP is STILL high. And quite frankly the idea that hitting with RISP is a skill is kind of screwy.
by USG on Aug 13, 2009 10:12 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree
To me, it’s an arbitrary stat that really is there mostly so the media can use it as a highlight point. Has no real value with respect to the game.
There are two theories on hitting the Knuckleball. Unfortunately, neither of them work. ~Charlie Lau
by BHeebs on Aug 13, 2009 10:27 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It’s plausible to say that it is one way to reflect on how a hitter does in higher pressure situations.
by upCHUCK on Aug 13, 2009 11:49 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think a player can do particularly poorly in pressure situations.
I don’t think it’s possible for them to somehow lock in above and beyond their usual abilities just ‘cause there’s a man on second.
by USG on Aug 13, 2009 12:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
So...
I guess a more valuable stat would be difference between batting and batting w RISP. To me, that’s the most interesting part, because a .300 hitter hitting .310 with RISP could be just statistical variance but a .250 hitter with a .310 RISP could actually be saying something. And obviously would still be interesting with numbers changing in the other direction.
by BigRedDog42 on Aug 13, 2009 12:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Unless, of course, a player's RISP stats fluctuate year-to-year
While his overall year-to-year stats are more consistent.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Aug 13, 2009 12:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That seems to be the common view by most statistic minded fans.
The whole “they can’t give more than 100%” thing. But, I think the concept of clutch is being able to deal with the extra pressure – they’re still giving 100% conscience effort, but they are able to clear their mind and focus better when needed. A better subconscious effort, I guess it could be called.
@bs_uf15bosox9be The Original Gameday; Learn to use SB Nation
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Aug 13, 2009 1:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
CLUTCH!!!
Which is really misunderstood.
@bs_uf15bosox9be The Original Gameday; Learn to use SB Nation
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Aug 13, 2009 1:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Single-season RISP totals are often from a very small sample size
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Aug 13, 2009 10:28 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
risp
Ortiz and Drew are both hitting in the .120’s RISP … OBP without clutch hitting is worth nothing. You can’t win without scoring.
by Old Fan on Aug 13, 2009 2:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
But Ortiz was one of the best in the league in "clutch" stats only a few years ago.
Did Papi lose the ability to up his game in pressure situations? Why did he lose that abilitty, considering it is “in his blood” as many commentators like to say?
What we are saying is that most likely “clutch” is just random variation caused by small sample size. Yes, it is important to hit in the clutch, but it is unclear if it is actually a skill.
"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw
by BTLove on Aug 13, 2009 3:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Last year
Drew hit .289 AVG/.457 OBP/.522 SLG (.979 OPS) with RISP. Drew has a career OPS of .893 with RISP.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Aug 13, 2009 6:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
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