Julio Lugo

by revigik on Aug 12, 2009 7:36 AM EDT Comment 29 comments

So after all that adventure with Julio Lugo, why is he suddenly a pretty good player with the Cardinals? He has at least a hit most games, a bomb, and is playing decent SS with one error-decent if it stays one error. And all we got for this guy is a salary dump and a guy who'll probably never make the majors-Chris Duncan? While he wasn't always the best, a .311 BA doesn't lie. Theo shouldn't have listened to the fans so much because now we're looking at our starting SS Nick Green with a .230's average.

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RE: Julio Lugo

Lugo’s production wasn’t worth his bench spot and face it, he was the most expendable.

by TheDesktopNinja on Aug 12, 2009 7:49 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Honeymoon phase, perhaps?

Clearly Lugo’s not that good over the long haul. The regression to the mean will be ugly.

But there was no way for him to stay in Boston. He just was not getting the job done, and I think the bigger issue is his teammates lost confidence in him being able to do it as well.

by lone1c on Aug 12, 2009 9:19 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Agreed.

@bs_uf15bosox9be The Original Gameday; Learn to use SB Nation

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Aug 12, 2009 4:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Lugo

Wasn’t playing great for us and there was no way of knowing he would ever pick up his game. He was expendable at the time and nearly everyone agreed that it was time for him to go when we had injured people coming off the DL. Chris Duncan has had major league success and is a young player that is still learning, plus his career OPS is around 800. On many other teams he could be a starting OF/1B, on our team he can provide some good depth when we have a little more roster space.

"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.

by Rogue Nine on Aug 12, 2009 9:39 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Two words: sample size

He has a whopping total of 58 at bats with the Cardinals. Anyone can get hot for 58 at bats, and look who he’s faced — the Phillies, Dodgers, Astros, Mets, Pirates, and Reds. Not exactly teams with surplus talent on the mound, particularly given that so many of the better pitchers from Philly and LA are on the DL or battling injuries.

by RSNexile on Aug 12, 2009 12:52 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

This is not a new phenomenon...

See Edgar Renteria

We are not normal. We are legends.

by NittanyAlum02 on Aug 12, 2009 2:00 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs

Dont hate Lugo for putting out a good effort.

He stated several times he wished things would work out in Boston and now he is trying to contribute to a playoff team. Sometimes a change of scenery does wonders. St. Louis had zero expectations and maybe Lugo finally just relaxed and mellowed out.

I wish him the best of luck, just not if he plays the Sox. 3 errors and 0-4 would be great.

by SoxAcumen on Aug 12, 2009 2:24 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I am glad Lugo is working out for the Cards..

Yeah, I still think his stats with the Cards could fluctuate, but he has been hitting okay this whole year.

Lugo came to the Sox in filling too stressful positions, leadoff hitter and shortstop. He was going to be well compensated for his expectations. He failed in both roles. I think people would had given him leeway if fulfill at least his shortstop role, but he was committing too many errors for such an important role.

What the Sox should learn from Lugo debacle, look for more of an Omar Vizquel than a Derek Jeter, or a defensive shortstop than a SS who hits for average and has a high OBP.

Lugo had a couple clench plays, that were kind of downplayed, and his mistakes were overplayed, but he had to go. I just think he was worth more than being DFA, and it shows right now, that he was worth another MLB player or two prospects.

by superferret on Aug 12, 2009 9:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

+1

I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.

by Drugs Delaney on Aug 13, 2009 10:30 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Agreed

I said at the time that I hoped he landed on his feet wherever his next place was, and I’m glad that seems to be happening.

Man I love that tuna casserole.

by Bloggy on Aug 13, 2009 5:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

True

"We're not going to give up," It doesn't happen, so who cares? There's always next year. It's not like it's the end of the world."-Manny Ramirez

by revigik on Aug 12, 2009 3:32 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Hahahahahahaha!

My favorite part of this fanpost is this:

While he wasn’t always the best, a .311 BA doesn’t lie.

Absolutely fantastic. Acutally my friend, batting average lies all the time and is an awful way to judge a players current production and has absolutely zero predictive value. So yes, batting average does lie, in a big way.

Tools Whore

by Tyler on Aug 12, 2009 8:48 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, OTM's not the most stat friendly blog.

But his wOBA’s .362, so the point’s still there, if poorly made.

@bs_uf15bosox9be The Original Gameday; Learn to use SB Nation

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Aug 12, 2009 10:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

R U Serioz?

We LOVE stats here at OTM. BA, HRs, RBIs, ERA, we’re all over that stuff. But we even go into more technical, advanced stats like errors, put-outs, and fielding percentage.

We also do cutting edge statistical research. As a matter of fact, I’m about to release the most innovative statistic of all time. It’s calculated by adding all a pitcher’s hits and walks together, and dividing it by the number of innings pitched. I call it Excellent Correlation of Offensive Linear Integrals.

"It's just a tiny little nick, but it hurts when I get champagne in there."
- Jason Bay, on getting spiked scoring the winning run in ALDS Game Four.

by 0157H7 on Aug 13, 2009 10:38 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hahaha.

@bs_uf15bosox9be The Original Gameday; Learn to use SB Nation

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Aug 13, 2009 3:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I know what you're saying,

but AVG has no predictive value? really? I doubt that is true. There are obviously many, many better stats, but AVG correlates with runs scored at right around .85.

"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw

by BTLove on Aug 13, 2009 1:41 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think by predictive value, he means projectability.

In other words, how likely a player with a high batting average is to repeat that feat the next year. I haven’t read the literature, but I’d wager that high OBP is more projectable, and more likely a repeatable skill than high BA. The only exception might be a player like Ichiro, who has both great bat-control and plus speed.

"It's just a tiny little nick, but it hurts when I get champagne in there."
- Jason Bay, on getting spiked scoring the winning run in ALDS Game Four.

by 0157H7 on Aug 13, 2009 10:42 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Generally speaking both will be heavily influenced by BABIP. You need to set a trend.

by Ben Buchanan on Aug 13, 2009 12:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm not sure thats true.

Hitting for a high batting average is certainly a skill that many players repeat year after year. The problem is that it is not necessarily an important skill (or not as important as a high OBP, SLG or wOBA).

"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw

by BTLove on Aug 13, 2009 3:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Now don't hate me for being a luddite

But I feel batting average has been overly maligned by some people on here. I know there are a lot of other stats that are more descriptive, but that doesn’t mean average is completely without value.

I mean hits are still a nice thing. And are more valuable than walks and reaching on error, which are treated the same in OBP. So love all the other stats, but don’t beat on average like a red headed step child.

Alright now commence with the shouts and screams. I hope I didn’t blaspheme the gods of baseball prospectus too much.

by BigRedDog42 on Aug 13, 2009 12:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

A correction

OBP = Hits + Walks + Hit by pitches / Plate appearances. It doesn’t count fielding errors.

While BA is scoffed at by the vanguard of the Sabermetric movement, it is overrated by basically the rest of the baseball community. For most of the media and casual fans, batting average, RBIs and Wins are king.

"It's just a tiny little nick, but it hurts when I get champagne in there."
- Jason Bay, on getting spiked scoring the winning run in ALDS Game Four.

by 0157H7 on Aug 13, 2009 1:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Wait

You mean Rudy Pemberton’s lifetime BA of .336 is no reflective of his status as a great Baseball Player???? WTF, my world is crumbling around me. I’m melting!

Ian Browne aspires to be like me.

by jkeough on Aug 13, 2009 1:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

My mistake

I thought errors were included. I agree there’s two disparate schools of thought on batting average. Personally, I’d have to plant myself in the middle of those two.

by BigRedDog42 on Aug 13, 2009 4:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Which is why wOBA (and OPS, to a lesser degree) is a great stat.

Values everything based on run values.

@bs_uf15bosox9be The Original Gameday; Learn to use SB Nation

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Aug 13, 2009 3:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Oh my

so this means that Carlos Rodriguez (backup SS 94/95) career Sox BA of .312 isn’t a good reason to bring him back?

I say tear up all the stats and bring back Billy Ashley.

Ian Browne aspires to be like me.

by jkeough on Aug 13, 2009 7:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Forget about Julio Lugo he’s gone…I’m glad he’s gone, he was only hurting the team, I’m sorry but I couldn’t stand watching this guy, he was driving me crazy offensively and defensively

by t.williams9 on Aug 13, 2009 12:06 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Julio Lugo

for Mayor of Boston. And MVP. And President. President Lugo!!!!

Ian Browne aspires to be like me.

by jkeough on Aug 13, 2009 1:01 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

We were paying him 9 million a year to do nothing. He’s also in the NL now, which sucks. So maybe that’s why? Or the fact that he’s getting more playing time with a much less bitchy crowd like we have. Let’s face it, Sox fans are spoiled since 2003 or so. And we’ve had consecutive sellouts, two world series titles, and many other things.

So we have that tendency to boo anybody who makes one error for us [granted Lugo had many]. Now I’m assuming St. Louis is a little more laid-back in that regard.

by nssuhoski on Aug 13, 2009 2:23 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I'd rather Lugo

Nick green, with the exception of his strong arm, is horrible and extremely nonathletic on defense. He isn’t even as good a hitter as Lugo. But, things didnt work out here.

by qthaballa on Aug 15, 2009 4:16 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs