The Red Sox struggles: Put away your umbrella, the sky is not falling
by Randy Booth on Aug 10, 2009 6:00 AM EDT
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PrintI'm going to do it.
As hard as it seems right now -- after being swept by the Yankees, no less -- I've decided that the 2009 season is not over. The 2009 season is not shot. As close to the ledge you are right now, I urge you to step back.
It's time to be positive.
I will point out first that the Red Sox have a 62-48 record. That's tied for third best in the American League with the Texas Rangers. While the winning percentage has certainly dropped since the All-Star break, the record is nothing to sneeze at. We need to remember that as bad as this "slump" is, it's wedged within a season that has been pretty decent.
The Red Sox have 62 wins, but can anyone tell me that the Red Sox have actually played really good ball this season? I can't remember a single time when I thought: This team is really good.
Sure, this doesn't sound like a positive, but it is. The Sox have won games and they haven't been at their best. The Sox have to, before this season is over, make a big run. And when's the best time to make a run? At the end of the season, of course.
We've never seen that out of a Sox club in recent history. Usually the Sox have a spurt in the beginning or middle of the year where they play their best baseball. But how about once where it finishes a season? Maybe the Sox will tear through September and go into the playoffs with a duckboat-full of momentum.
I mean, really, this offense has to click at some point. While the pitching has been solid to great all year, the offense can't claim anything close to that. But what happens when Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis, Jason Bay, Victor Martinez and David Ortiz all hit their stride at the same time? It means a lot of runs and a lot of wins.
Another reason to stay positive: the pitching. Josh Beckett may be your American League Cy Young winner right now and Jon Lester is a guy no team wants to face in a big game. While the starting rotation doesn't have much to offer behind those two studs, we should be happy with the fact we have two studs in the first place. Yeah, we need at least one more dominant pitcher if we want to go into the playoffs and win, but there's time to see if someone will pan out. Who knows, maybe Daisuke Matsuzaka will come back and pitch like he did in 2008? I know it sounds like a joke, but it's a possibility.
Here's what I'm really holding out hope for and this is what I think the Sox really need: a leader.
David Ortiz used to be a leader of the Sox. That was when he was hitting 40+ home runs a year. Now he's hitting .220 and he just doesn't carry the same swagger. As much as I'm sure he'd like to stand up and tell each and every player to take their heads out of their million-dollar backsides, it just doesn't work when it comes from a guy who's having one of the worst years of his career.
So let's pass the torch. I'd love to say give it to Pedroia and Youkilis, but it sort of upsets me they haven't already taken the reigns in that sense. There's still time for that. But there are two guys on the offense that I'd love to see get in the clubhouse and make some noise: Jason Bay and Mike Lowell.
Imagine if Bay and Lowell got fired up and lit a fire under this team's collective ass? Just the fact it's Bay and Lowell would do the trick. Two of the quietest Sox on the team, taking charge and getting stuff done. I think that would work. And the good thing is -- there's still time.
I was talking to my neighbor today and I told him that this Yankee series reminded me of another series: the 2004 ALCS. Remember that horrible feeling we had after three games? It was like getting punched to the ground and kicked in the face before we can even open our eyes. I feel the same way today.
But what changed all that? One play. One sign. One stolen base. That's all it took and it turned everything around.
That can happen now. That can happen now because there is still plenty of time in this season. A four-game sweep to the Yankees hurts, but it doesn't kill the Sox. The Sox aren't dead until Major League Baseball tells them their season is over and to pack up their bags.
So here's my one simple message to all of you:
Keep the faith.
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The Red Sox are now 8-4 against the Yankees
Granted, we were in a better position at 8-0 than now, but the Yankees are a good team and we can’t be expected to run the table against them. 8-4 really isn’t bad, but the Sox need to show some life and rebound from that dismal series.
"You know you're having a bad day when the fifth inning rolls around and they drag the warning track." - Mike Flanagan, Baltimore Orioles pitcher, 1992.
Umm..
you know the number to look at is 6.5, not 8-4, right?
Sounds a bit like...
“whistling in the dark”,but what else is there right now?
would you say it's time for our viewers to . . . panic?
My theory: the Sox injury situation is a lot more serious than anyone’s letting on. They’re still close enough that no one’s ready to pack it in on this season, but if they fall too much further back I’m guessing there’ll be a lot of names heading to the DL.
The reasons the Sox played so well early on were:
1. They were hitting the crap out of the ball, even against good pitching.
2. They had Wakefield. Meaning that they had a #3 starter who could reliably not suck every time out.
3. The bullpen was fresher.
Re: (1), I think there’s been some regression to the mean going on (i.e., the lineup was hitting out of their minds in April and May, and they’re coming down to earth), but this is where I think the injury bug is secretly killing them. Re: (2), I was very encouraged by Clay’s start on Saturday; he gave the team a chance to win against a brutal lineup. Re: (3), I have no answer; unless the lineup can start producing runs and someone other than Beckett and Lester can go deep into games, these guys aren’t going to get more effective than they are now.
More casual than the average fan.
by baseball conspiracy theories on Aug 10, 2009 9:49 AM EDT reply actions
I have a large bag of kittens.
Every time David Ortiz gets another plate appearance for the Red Sox this season, I’m going to reach into my bag, pull out a kitten, and wring its neck. And I write that as someone who likes both David Ortiz and ktitens. And bags.
"no1 has time to read your long comments, are you writing a book?"
by britsoxfan on Aug 10, 2009 9:49 AM EDT reply actions 2 recs
I've been waiting for the season to get really interesting before logging back on.
"no1 has time to read your long comments, are you writing a book?"
Umm... why?
ZiPS projections for the rest of the season for him are as follows:
.263 AVG, .365 OBP, .509 SLG, .874 OPS, .246 ISO, .377 wOBA
Also, his BABIP this season’s been .251 – the lowest of his career since becoming a starter.
@bs_uf15bosox9be The Original Gameday; Learn to use SB Nation
But you’d agree he should be sitting against lefties at least, right? This has the huge added benefit of keeping Lowell off the field.
The BABIP number is somewhat interesting, though it’s a bit of red herring . After all, he’s just not making very good contact. When he does make contact, he’s getting more quiet outs than loud ones. He’s cheating on fastballs. Pitchers know they don’t have to pitch around him any more.
I would love to see him hit 874 the rest of the way. It just seems unlikely.
"no1 has time to read your long comments, are you writing a book?"
Yeah, I'd agree to that, no question.
Let me play around with this xBABIP calculator and see what Papi’s expected BABIP should be.
@bs_uf15bosox9be The Original Gameday; Learn to use SB Nation
Well, I got .292, which means he's still pretty unlucky.
@bs_uf15bosox9be The Original Gameday; Learn to use SB Nation
Very.
Esp. b/c I’ve been using LD% + .120 as my best approximation, and then I was informed that’s actually a pretty bad way to do it, esp. when you can just look at previous BABIPs for a much better number.
@bs_uf15bosox9be The Original Gameday; Learn to use SB Nation
go straight to hell
do not pass go, do not collect $200
This kind of comment is extremely unhelpful.
Woah, Rick, we just got brit back.
He’s got to make a big entrance.
@bs_uf15bosox9be The Original Gameday; Learn to use SB Nation
I'm bummed
but not worried, lots of baseball left.
It’s been fun over the past few years watching teams act as if they have it all sewn up only to have the rug pulled out from under. Even if the Sox don’t win it all, I know these past games aren’t indicative of their talent as a team.
"You know," Girardi said, shrugging his shoulders, "it didn't work."
( Joe Girardi on pitching to Manny Ramirez with first base open)
I like this attitude
hope the players feel this way too.
The bullpen has been solid to great all season...
…but they’ve had to do too much since the all-star break, and the wear is starting to show. That and they were collectively lights out for the first three months of the season, Paps being the exception and his results were still excellent, and they’re regressing to merely very good now.
The starting pitching has been mostly solid, but not great. Beckett and Lester slumped a little toward the beginning of the year, but overall have been great. Wake was good, but it was inevitable that he’d hit the DL for a while. Penny has had his moments, but overall has been an average fifth starter at best, which isn’t good enough when Dice-K has been so bad you’d think the MFY were paying him and Smoltz was almost as bad once he joined the rotation. Buch’s two best starts were his first one, which wasn’t great, and his most recent one, which was acceptable but also not great.
And there’s simply no excuse for being shut out for 31 straight innings. That’s just pathetic.
We need Wake back. We need Drew, Bay, and Ortiz to pick up their games. We need Tek not to be an automatic out (good luck with that). We need the Green/Woodward/Guzman platoon not to suck any more than they already do — they’d be fine as backups, but if Lowrie can’t stay healthy, we need a better solution at shortstop in the long term. And I’d like to see Bowden get a shot at the rotation — he can’t possibly do worse than Dice-K, Smoltz, Penny, and Buchholz have done.
I still think this team is going to the playoffs, and they’re definitely better than the MFY, but they’re underachieving like they’re the Washington Nationals, and that has to stop.
I agree
about the pen-was lights out till the end of June. Has been spotty since. And has cost at least 3-6 games in that stretch. The offense has flat out sucked. After April, we have been below average in offense as a team, and worse than some damn aful offenses. To score fewer runs that the A’s over the last 3 months is amazing given how bad they are and how much of a pitcher’s park they play in.
Everyone talks about how old we are. But the funny thing is that Lowell, Drew, Bay, Tek and Papi are younger on average than Damon, Posada, Jeter, Arod and Matsui (by a fair bit). Their old guys are hitting, and our somewhat younger old guys are not. That is a hard thing to predict and understand-especially given that Posada and Matsui, Arod were coming of surgery years, Jeter off a down year, and the fact that Damon is always banged up. Oh well…
We don't have Guzman.
And we’re not getting him. Just thought I’d make sure everyone was clear on that.
@bs_uf15bosox9be The Original Gameday; Learn to use SB Nation
Thank goodness for small favors
I hadn’t heard that — been in meetings all day. What happened?
Here:
Do we know if this is for real?
Or is the like MLBTR’s standard absurd Pujols-for-a-bucket-of-balls kind of rumor?
I've never seen a crazy rumor on there.
Plus, the original report was from Cafardo.
@bs_uf15bosox9be The Original Gameday; Learn to use SB Nation
An interesting factoid
Boston’s 31-inning scoreless slump is the longest since the Red Sox’s 34-inning scoreless streak in 1974.
"You know you're having a bad day when the fifth inning rolls around and they drag the warning track." - Mike Flanagan, Baltimore Orioles pitcher, 1992.
In case anyone else wants to post trollish comments,
Please note that I am BANNING TROLLS and DELETING THEIR COMMENTS.
"It's just a tiny little nick, but it hurts when I get champagne in there."
- Jason Bay, on getting spiked scoring the winning run in ALDS Game Four.
I put that in caps
because that seems to be the only form of communication the troll’s meager minds can process.
"It's just a tiny little nick, but it hurts when I get champagne in there."
- Jason Bay, on getting spiked scoring the winning run in ALDS Game Four.
A slight correction
he Sox have to, before this season is over, make a big run.
You won 11 games in a row from Apr 15th-27th. I think that qualifies as your big run of the year.
Also, until you guys get Jared Remy back in that locker room, I don’t see the bats getting going. Old men rarely feel better after doing their job for 4 months straight without some sort of pickmeup. My advice, find a way to get Hambone and let him go out and get coke for the whole team. Surely that will help.
I can't help that I make some things look easier than they really are.
I hope you don't take this as a troll
as I was merely trying to correct the falsity perpetrated by the OP. Carry on gents.
I can't help that I make some things look easier than they really are.
by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 10, 2009 12:56 PM EDT up reply actions
baseball words to live by
“Pitching is 80 percent of the game,” the eccentric outfielder Mickey Rivers once said. “And the other half is hitting and fielding.”
With that in mind, the sky is neither falling, nor should everything be looked at through rose-colored glasses.
This week is important to get some confidence restored, so we can continue to make a solid run at the playoffs.
Can I use this as my new sig?
I’ll be sure to give you credit
I can't help that I make some things look easier than they really are.
by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 10, 2009 1:53 PM EDT up reply actions
We’ll probably know after Tuesday night. That’s our first look at Tazawa as a starter, correct?
More casual than the average fan.
by baseball conspiracy theories on Aug 10, 2009 1:55 PM EDT up reply actions
Yep, Tazawa is the scheduled starter Tuesday night
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Aug 10, 2009 2:17 PM EDT up reply actions
Tazawa, Bowden, Byrd, Wake, Dice-K.
That’s the order in which they’ll be given attempts.
@bs_uf15bosox9be The Original Gameday; Learn to use SB Nation
one last bit of gloom and then i'll stop
But the schedule going forward does the Sox no favors; if they’re going to get back into this, they’ll have to do so against some quality teams. Aside from the series against Detroit and Texas this week, they’ve got two more series apiece against the Yankees, Rays, and White Sox, as well as one more against Anaheim.
More casual than the average fan.
by baseball conspiracy theories on Aug 10, 2009 1:52 PM EDT reply actions
Good point.
I’d also add that even if we go on a winning streak it doesn’t matter a lick if the teams ahead of us keep winning. We only have control over one of the two i.e. beating the teams we play. Our “rooting” for other teams to lose does ultimately nothing.
Youk should step up
Pedroia is a solid player but Youk is great. Youk is clearly the best player on the team and he should step up.
I’m telling you it is OVER! Things looked great up until the All-star break but this collapse is more dramatic than that chinese hotel that got washed away in the typhoon over the weekend. This line up doesn’t scare anyone, it’s pathetic! Pappy is no good without the Juice. He is in fact nothing more than a double play looking for a place to happen. And can someone tell me; when was the last time that Jason Veritek delivered a clutch hit? Face it! 2009 is over. That tight wad Epstein better spend some money in the off-season……….
Stop right there.
No baseball slump will EVER be more important that the loss of human lives.
@bs_uf15bosox9be The Original Gameday; Learn to use SB Nation
Are good fans good consumers, or can they be?
Reading the optimistic posts here in light of what to me anyway is obvious reality makes me wonder about what it is to be a “fan”. Especially, can a “Fan” be a good consumers?
I think being a good consumer means looking for value with your time and or money. If you spend time and or money on crap, you should suffer from the caveat emptor (buyer beware) reality of some markets. In other words, someone is taking advantage of your non-critical purchasing prowess. A good consumer should know what he/she wants and only gives up time and or money when they get it. Do the hardcore fans on this site know what they want and when they are getting it? I would then just ask, what it is that you hardcore fans want from the Red Sox in general and especially this current version of the Red Sox.
depends on how you define "value", really
Some people watch sports because they get a vicarious charge out of pulling for a winner, others because they like seeing excellence, and others because they enjoy the ups and downs of a season, debating all the what-ifs and trying to interpret and predict what the team is doing. If you’re like the 3rd type, in a weird way the team’s struggles are part of what you enjoy about following them. So you are getting something out of it.
More casual than the average fan.
by baseball conspiracy theories on Aug 10, 2009 2:37 PM EDT up reply actions
Pretty decent reply.
Thanks for writing this.
I find myself in one or both of your first two categories. I like to get a vicarious charge out of pulling for a winner, and/or I like seeing excellence. The third category does not do it for me if the lead or main criteria is that I always have to find favor with a crappy team. I might (actually I do) enjoy dissecting what is wrong and making suggestions on how to improve, but it really sort of bothers me when one has to overlook obvious faults to justify being a good fan. When does reality on the ground trump hope for discussion purposes?
by NG on Aug 10, 2009 2:59 PM EDT up reply actions
Well, I think “rabid fandom” has to have its limits. I grew up in Pittsburgh, but gave up on following the Pirates after I moved away. It required effort to actually follow them, and they were/are such a terrible team that there was really nothing enjoyable about doing so. This might not be the Sox’ year to go all the way, but I can’t say I haven’t had a lot of fun watching them and debating people over them.
More casual than the average fan.
by baseball conspiracy theories on Aug 10, 2009 4:07 PM EDT up reply actions
So, now you're arguing being a fair-weather fan is best because it makes economical sense?
Do you understand that this is a GAME?
@bs_uf15bosox9be The Original Gameday; Learn to use SB Nation
Fan is short for FANatic
Don’t try to apply logic and market based principles to something as purely emotional as being a sox fan………
devil2, please use the "reply" button.
It makes threads easier to follow by nesting your comment under the comment you are replying to.
@bs_uf15bosox9be The Original Gameday; Learn to use SB Nation
Ortiz' only protection is from the MLBPA
Ortiz really misses Manny. I know he was a clubhouse cancer, perhaps a bad influence on Ortiz (steroids), but as an opposing fan seeing those two guys up there was nerve racking. I give the Sox a lot of credit for making Game 7 of the ALCS w/out him, but this season is really showing how important he was to the offense. Pedroia, Ellsbury, and Youklis are good but no pitchers/catchers in the league are thinking about them 3 batters before. Steroid assumptions aside, I’ve always felt that Ortiz got a huge boost from Manny.
Couldn't have said it better myself.
Keep the faith. Boston is too good a team to get knocked down and stay down. Beckett fuels himself and is probably the most dominant pitcher in the AL all season. The bats will show signs of life, and then fade. JD went 3-4 last night, not too shabby, but definitely a lot of swagger is gone. There are 3 hitters keeping this sinking team afloat. Pedroia, Youk, and Ellsbury. Green faded, Drew faded, Lowell cant play everyday, Ortiz has been a mystery all year, Bay obviously faded, V-mart has been a great addition but definitely lacks leadership qualities which is understandable considering he’s on a brand new team. ( not to mention a title contender) Varitek had a hot start, but he’s faded, its time to swing at good pitches, not be so desperate and make opposing pitchers come to us. Draw walks, get on base. Play station to station fundamental baseball if thats what it takes to warm up the bats again. But without someone standing up and challenging this team to push themselves, they will become fat cats, and thats hard to say because I’m crazy about this team. I hang on every pitch of every game. Tonight a good showing against Detroit should give us an idea of where we are and what we need to do to get back to the top-tier team we are. Hopefully it comes at the expense of Edwin Jackson’s ERA, cuz we know Penny is gonna give up a few runs…
VMart was the unquestioned leader of the Indians.
Please explain how he’s lacking leadership qualities?
@bs_uf15bosox9be The Original Gameday; Learn to use SB Nation
Wow, that was inspiring
In times of crisis, people tend to refer back to 2004. But I’m not sure how much relevance that has to now. There are very few players from that team still remaining. Instead, I look back to last October, game five of the ALCS, when the Sox, facing elimination, pulled off the greatest single game postseason comeback of all time, coming back from seven runs down. i promised then that i would never give up on the red sox again, and i won’t.
I'm scared
Also, I think JD Drew may be getting into a groove.
Finger’s crossed for a repeat of last June.
Well, I'll appreciate for you to keep my zingers outta your mouth!
drew NEEDS to justify his salary
I just looked at the Red Sox salaries and realized, much to my surprise and chagrin, that JD Drew is the highest paid player on the team! Who knew?!?
He cannot be a platoon player at $14+ million/year.
There’s been a lot of talk about Bay and Ortiz and Lowell, and which of these guys can carry the offensive load. While it’s imperative that all of these guys start hitting better, Drew has been a no-show this season.
He's been worth $10.6mil to date, based on his WAR of 2.3
That’s without him being particularly amazing at any point this season. He’s on pace for roughly 3.5 WAR by the end of the season, which would be worth ~$16mil. Considering that he could easily have a hot streak, aided by the impending hot streaks that everyone else is due for*, and his general proclivity for performing extremely well in the playoffs, and I’d say he’s got a sporting chance to break even. But, even if he doesn’t, it’s not like we have any right to be extremely upset if he misses by a million or so – a TON of players on this team are signed below market value. Yes, Theo was a bit insane to offer that much to an aging, injury-prone Boras client with little outside competition for him, but he’s allowed to screw up a FA signing or two per off-season as long as he continues to run a great farm system.
As for your claim that he’s been a “no-show this season”, I’ll refer you to this graph, which shows he’s been at least, if not a good bit above, league average for most of the season:
*: Yeah, this is kinda a gambler’s fallacy, but you have to account for regression (which would suggest he’s much better than he’s been playing of late) and for context, such as opponents and ball parks.
@bs_uf15bosox9be The Original Gameday; Learn to use SB Nation
Randy, you really want Dice-K pitching like he did last season?
@bs_uf15bosox9be The Original Gameday; Learn to use SB Nation
For my rebuttal, I turn to Cptn. Kirk:
Ah, what the hell, I’ll do it anyways. DAISUKE WAS EXTREMELY LUCKY LAST SEASON.
@bs_uf15bosox9be The Original Gameday; Learn to use SB Nation
Thats actually Captain Jean Luc Picard.
Strikeouts are boring- Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.
by CasanovaWong on Aug 11, 2009 6:37 AM EDT up reply actions
I was always more of a Star Wars kid anyways.
Thanks.
@bs_uf15bosox9be The Original Gameday; Learn to use SB Nation
one more thing...
Now is not the time to look at the standings. The Sox have been, to put it bluntly, playing like crap since the All-Star break. You don’t cure that problem by worrying about the standings.
In recent weeks, there have been two huge distractions that the Sox can hopefully put behind them. For starters, there’s the whole Ortiz thing. That’s been a huge distraction. And secondly, there’s been the Smoltz disaster. Hopefully they can move past both of these problems and start coalescing around a new rotation (with a new fifth starter) and can get a productive lineup working.
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