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Stimulus Package: 5 Red Sox Prospects Whose Stocks Have Risen

Cancer isn't about to stop Anthony Rizzo. via snapshots.mlblogs.com

Cancer isn't about to stop Anthony Rizzo. via snapshots.mlblogs.com

No, I am not proud of the title.

Alright, the trade deadline has passed, and the Sox are minus 2 prospects and a young graduate. But all is well in the farm system. Between Clay, Bard, Kelly, Bowden, Tazawa, and arguably Pimentel and Doubront, none of the arms the Sox shipped out were even top-5 pitchers in the system, and of course the positional depth remains untouched from Lars and Reddick, right on down to Westmoreland.

 

So, now that I am certain that none of these guys will be pulled out from underneath me, here's the follow-up to the "Market Crash" piece. These are the Sox farmhands who have best improved their stock over the season to date.

 

Star-divide

 

 

Just for clarity's sake, this does not include newly acquired guys playing their first season, improving on scouting. So that's why there's no Westmoreland or Kelly (first pitching season) sitting at the top.

 

5. Aaron Bates

Who he is: A 25-year-old 1st baseman who, at this time last year, was on the fast track to nowhere. Other than his time in short-season Lowell and the ever-inflating Lancaster, Bates had never really put up big numbers. Certainly not enough for a first baseman, even one with a good glove. OPS' in the mid-high .700s. He had fair plate discipline, hit for an acceptable average, but never really found any of his advertised power. He was at his worst, in fact, in fall and winter 2008 leagues, his OPS hitting all-time lows of .670 and .714.

 

What's gone right: The power showed up. And with it came even better average and OBP. At .340/.405/.505, Bates emerged in AA after a change in swing mechanics before the season started. These improvements have earned him a spot in AAA, and even a short call up to the majors—an opportunity he took full advantage of, impressing in a very limited role.

 

Lasting concerns: He's not exactly dominated in AAA. His OPS sits well under .600, thanks largely in part to power more reminiscent of his 2008 numbers. He's still walking at a fair clip, and he's not really striking out any more. He's just not making as solid contact as he did in AA—a typical symptom of a post-promotion slump, however good his short stint in the MLB may have been. Still, for a 25-year-old in AA, this sort of breakout was quite necessary to even be considered in the future.

 

 

 

4. Mark Wagner

Who he is: A 25-year-old catcher who had managed to drop off the map like nothing else last year. After posting great offensive numbers (for a catcher) in his first 2 Just to ease some minds about one Lars Anderson, here are Mark Wagner's relevant lines of the last few years:

 

2006 (A): .301/.386/.456

2007 (A+): .318/.406/.533

2008 (AA): .219/.304/.363

2009 (AA): .301/.410/.477

 

One bad year and nobody had ever heard of him.

 

What's gone right: He returned to form. Not a whole lot more to it than that. Wagner had performed in the past, the aberration was that he DIDN'T perform last year. Call him the Red Sox minor league comeback player of the year, if you like. Given the dire catching situation at the start of the year, some folks started to take note of Wagner again (for the first time?) as he went on an early tear. Oh, and it doesn't hurt that he's throwing out about half of all base stealers for his minor league career.

 

Lasting concerns: Pawtucket has not been particularly kind through 61 at bats. .230/.273/.443 is not an impressive line. He also seems to lack home run pop, at least at this point, which should hurt him in any organizational battle involving Tim Federowicz or Ryan Lavarnway, who have both shown a great deal of power in the lower levels. The biggest question about Wagner has to be if he can make that jump to the majors. He's far from being a sure-thing as anything more than a backup backstop. But if he can bring his great plate discipline with him, and continue to put the bat on the ball, his lack of power shouldn't hold him back at what is, right now, an offensively bankrupt position.

 

 

 

3. Will Middlebrooks

Who he is: Wait, what? Some of you may remember this guy as the 5th worst fallen stock in the Sox system about a week-and-a-half ago. Has a one-week hot streak really changed that much?

 

What's gone right: It's a really nice hot streak, and it's more like a 2-week, 3-week long one. Here's what I said last time about why Middlebrooks was not at all a lost cause:

 

Middlebrooks has managed a .850 [OPS] June and then regressed to a .702 [OPS] July. The power isn't really there, and he's still striking out plenty more than he's walking, but it's better than what he did to start the year and certainly better than '07.

 

Well, .702 became .949 (.337/.391/.558)—like I said, a REALLY nice hot streak. The power has shown up rather dramatically, with 5 homers in the month alone to give him a .221 ISO on the month. He's still striking out plenty, and not walking a ton, but he's 18-for-his-last-38 with no signs of slowing down (given his 3-5 game yesterday). It's also fairly telling to consider that his progression this year is fairly similar to his progression last year. If there is a trend for Middlebrooks, it's that if you give him time to adjust, he will pay dividends.

 

Lasting concerns: The K:BB is not good. Even in July, it's been 34:10. Middlebrooks has had some troubles in the field as well, but there was no prior indication that his fielding was anything other than good, so that should come around.

 

 

 

2. Yamaico Navarro

Who he is: A 21-year-old shortstop with an awesome name. Navarro has exploded onto the top-prospect scene since his 2008 time in Lancaster. Now, a sudden offensive improvement in Lancaster is often a warning flag for a sort of false boost—especially when it's followed by a pitiful showing in Fall baseball. But after a few rehab starts this year following an early injury, Navarro has been doing his best to show that he's not going away.

 

What's gone right: Navarro has not only replicated, but improved on his earlier results in the less-inflating Lewis-Gale Field. After a line of .348/.393/.508 in Lancaster, Navarro managed .319/.373/.543 in a rather short time in Salem this year. His K:BB ratio isn't bad at all, and is made largely irrelevant because Navarro simply puts the ball in play so often with his great ability to make contact. Navarro puts the ball in play in about 79% of all plate appearances since the start of 2008, and strikes out in less than 15% of his plate appearances. He's also shown a little pop, with 4 homers in 94 Salem at bats

 

Lasting Concerns: Is having a fairly typical slump since his promotion to AA. Not walking any, but he's striking out at about the same clip which means he should probably get his numbers up fairly quickly. If not this season, look for him to rebound early next season. If he doesn't, it could be a worrying sign that his sudden production was somewhat ephemeral, since guys like that tend to be exposed by AA. If there's any other concern, it's that he could end up a lot like Ellsbury at the plate—high average, low OBP, letting the pitcher off easy on short counts.

 

 

 

1. Anthony Rizzo

Who he is: A young first baseman whose career was threatened by Hodgkin's Lymphoma. Cancer-free for all of 8 months, Rizzo has done his damnedest to dispel all fears that it may have had some lasting effect. Hell, we've all heard this story before. We're Red Sox fans. If Jon Lester isn't enough proof that Sox players won't let cancer get in the way, here's Anthony Rizzo.

 

What's gone right: All Anthony Rizzo needed to do in order to be on any semblance of a track was to not look hopeless. If he was weaker, that was to be expected. If he couldn't necessarily catch up to fastballs, give him a year to get back in shape. Instead, Rizzo batted .298/.365/.494 in his first 245 cancer-free at bats, belting 9 homers and 21 doubles at the age of 19. It took him a few weeks to get acclimated to Advanced-A ball after his promotion to Salem, but he's adapted well there too. After batting .222/.323/.222 in 27 June at bats, Rizzo has basically gone back to doing what he did in Greenville, with a July line of .319/.369/.495. Rizzo is on a roll.

 

Lasting Concerns: Um...I suppose the plate discipline isn't fantastic. 83:38 K:BB on the year is not too bad, though, and he's still just shy of 20 with limited professional experience in A+ ball. I think that can slide. Other than that, it would be nice to see more power out of Rizzo home run wise, but this early both in his career and back from cancer, it's remarkable he's on pace for 15, so that's more of a thing to watch for going forward. There's just not a lot to dislike about Anthony Rizzo.

 

 

 

As it turns out, my list stayed the same before and after the deadline—a good thing by my estimation. Gotta love Theo and the $100 million player development machine.

 

 

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Nice post

"Well let me just quote the late-great Colonel Sanders, who said...'I'm too drunk to taste this chicken.' "
-Ricky Bobby

by nepats108 on Aug 1, 2009 3:25 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I'd just assume Kelly isn't up there

Because his stock was high enough in the first place?

Well, I'll appreciate for you to keep my zingers outta your mouth!

by BoSox415 on Aug 1, 2009 5:31 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Here;
Just for clarity’s sake, this does not include newly acquired guys playing their first season, improving on scouting. So that’s why there’s no Westmoreland or Kelly (first pitching season) sitting at the top.

@bs_uf15bosox9be:OverTheMonster-ALLERGEN WARNING:May contain PB.

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Aug 1, 2009 5:49 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Awesome.

Just the thing, along with the trade deadline, to get us through the slump – well, the MFY regressing helps. :)

@bs_uf15bosox9be:OverTheMonster-ALLERGEN WARNING:May contain PB.

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Aug 1, 2009 5:58 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Good post

Rizzo has certainly established himself as a legitimate prospect.

Felix Doubront and Stolmy Pimental probably deserve mention. Im not sure Bates deserves to be on this list. He’s certainly established himself as an option… but he’s not in the team’s long term plans.

by alskor on Aug 2, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Doubront has been Prince Felix for a while.

I’ll take the Stolmy hit though. Bates got in based entirely on the fact that, last year, I would be entirely unsurprised if he never had a major league AB.

by USG on Aug 2, 2009 2:53 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

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