Jacoby Ellsbury Left Out?

by BostonSports95 on Jul 6, 2009 6:41 PM EDT Comment 31 comments

This years all-star game american leauge outfield reserves are Carl Crawford, Curtis Granderson, Torii Hunter, Adam Jones, and Ben Zobrist. The only problem i have with this list of reserves is, why isn't Jacoby Ellsbury on that list? Ellsbury has had an outstanding season so far. He is hitting .303 with an on base percentage of .351. And to add to that he has stolen 35 bases this season. If you compare his stats to Ben Zobrist or Curtis Granderson you will see that he has a better batting avg. than them. I think those are some pretty good reasons Ellsbury should be on the all-star team.

Poll

Should Jacoby Ellsbury be on the All-Star team

Yes

43 votes

No

45 votes

88 votes | Poll has closed

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I'm sorry, but since when is batting average a relevant stat when judging a players value?

Tools Whore

by Tyler on Jul 6, 2009 7:00 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

And just to clarify, Granderson has been a full win better than Ellsbury

and Zobrist has literally been the second best player in the majors.

Tools Whore

by Tyler on Jul 6, 2009 7:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

He's not a regular.

And this blog is just starting to accept stats – we have about 8 or 9 guys who keep the rest in line.

OverTheMonster - ALLERGEN WARNING: May contain peanut butter.

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jul 6, 2009 11:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The author of this post = He.

OverTheMonster - ALLERGEN WARNING: May contain peanut butter.

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jul 6, 2009 11:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well, batting average is an extremely relevant stat when judging a player's value

OBP, SLG and some others are just better tools.

Hitting for a high AVG is a skill – albeit one subject to much luck and outside factors that determine outcomes.

Ellsbury shows up great as an AVG hitter – and that’s good. Its not a fluke. He’s a .300 hitter. His lack of hitting for extra bases is where guys like Granderson FAR surpass him in overall value.

by alskor on Jul 7, 2009 12:11 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Average is not an extremely relevant stat.

It’s been proven that it’s just not all that indicative of actual run production—and no, I don’t mean RBIs.

by USG on Jul 7, 2009 7:09 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Not true.

AVG is relevant, but as alskor syays, other stats are better.

Manny ain't the only bad man.

by tommy.otm on Jul 7, 2009 8:44 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Define relevant.

It means something, sure, but it’s so far down the list that I wouldn’t call it relevant since it should really only come into play with all else being equal.

by USG on Jul 7, 2009 12:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The correlation between runs scored and AVG is like .85 (compared to .91 OBP and .955 OPS). So its obviously not the best indicator, but knowing a teams BA gives you a pretty good idea of their ability to score runs.

Either way, I think you’re just arguing semantics. There pretty clearly are not many times when AVG is overly useful, especially if its the only stat you’re using.

"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw

by BTLove on Jul 7, 2009 12:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

"There pretty clearly are not many times when AVG is overly useful, especially if its the only stat you’re using."

S’what I’m saying.

by USG on Jul 7, 2009 3:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

...and also what I said

if you read carefully…

by alskor on Jul 7, 2009 4:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I guess I could have been more clear

but AVG is getting a bad rap these days… we shouldnt throw it out completely. Some guys like Ellsbury or Ichiro have a native ability to regularly hit for high AVGs. They hit the ball well and get hits. That’s a good thing. It means, in general they will be able to keep that component part of more important measures (like OBP) up high because of that ability.

AVG is subject to a lot of randomness and noise, but its also a skill – and its important not to forget that. Its something we want ballplayers to be good at.

by alskor on Jul 7, 2009 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yep.

But it doesn’t necessarily show who’s the best batter.

OverTheMonster - ALLERGEN WARNING: May contain peanut butter.

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jul 7, 2009 4:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think we're kind of saying the same thing.

Obviously hitting for average is a skill. The question is whether or not its an important skill. For years it was looked at as the most important skill. Ells ability to hit for average does little to add to his value, other than get him on base (which is illustrated in his OBP). Hits are more valuable than walks, so even better, use wOBA which properly values each event. The point is that AVG is only valuable when used in conjunction with other stats; it helps paint a picture of how a player plays, but alone, it does little to show exactly that player’s value as a hitter.

"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw

by BTLove on Jul 7, 2009 4:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Jacoby this year has shown that he is an above average major league bat, but he is no where near an all-star. Also, whats up with his negative UZR ranking this year. UZR had him at 16.5 last year but -6.4 this year.

"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw

by BTLove on Jul 6, 2009 7:12 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Abreu-like wall phobia at times.

And overly cautious in other situations.

OverTheMonster - ALLERGEN WARNING: May contain peanut butter.

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jul 6, 2009 11:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I dont buy it

UZR doesnt handle Fenway well. Ellsbury has been excellent in the field this year, IMHO. He covers a tremendous amount of ground. Plays off the wall can’t be hurting him this much. There simply arent enough plays off the wall. As for caution – to my eyes he has been very aggressive charging balls and going in. I really dont see it. I think if you polled scouts they would love Ellsbury’s defense.

I wish we could see UZR home/road splits.

UZR has a ton of trouble with the Monster. Its a known issue. Balls off the Monster are counted as “in play” and “catchable.” UZR had some weird issues with Coco, Manny and Bay as well. For Ellsbury, it had him as -10.5 UZR/150 in 2007, +6.9 in 2008 and -9.9 this year. He’s not playing that much differently year to year… that’s a huge, unbelievable swing…

Many experts also believe UZR works best with a 3 year sample size, too…

I really believe its an UZR issue. Its just doesnt pass the sniff test.

by alskor on Jul 7, 2009 12:08 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

UZR is wierd

but his 2007 numbers definitely have SSS issues. Also, where are you getting your numbers? FG’s has his 2008 UZR/150 at 16.8 and 2007 at -4.0.

But I agree that UZR might not handle Fenway correctly. Coco in CF had some of the biggest swings ever for UZR. He experienced almost a -40 run swing from 2007 to 2008. That is almost 4 wins just in the field. That hardly seems possible.

"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw

by BTLove on Jul 7, 2009 12:53 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Also, where are you getting your numbers? FG’s has his 2008 UZR/150 at 16.8 and 2007 at -4.0.

Fangraphs. I was limiting it to his numbers in CF only.

by alskor on Jul 7, 2009 2:14 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

This is true.

I don’t think Ells has shown nearly as much agression on balls to shallow center, BUT he’s still been a great defender whose numbers are made problematic by 2 high walls in his zones. Especially CF, where a lot of balls of the wall are considered a high-rate outs, making any miss on them (even if they are off the very top and uncatchable to any fielder) a significant hit to UZR.

by USG on Jul 7, 2009 7:12 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ellsbury isn't even close, really.

Sorry.=\

by USG on Jul 6, 2009 7:16 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

we all love ells, but............

granderson and zobrist are homerun hitters, and thats what people want to see in the asg for the most part, zobrist is a stud who the sox should get in talks with the rays about, jacoby has had a great season and we all love him, but there granderson and zobrist have been better, it would be a damn shame if crawford and hunter wernt there, and jones has a moderate mix of pwer and speed, so id say they got it right, hell we got 6 guys in there already anyway

"Yeah, why rely on "facts" and "evidence" to support your arguments? Stupid me." BTLove

by irish republican army on Jul 6, 2009 8:24 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I’m in your sig. Honored.

"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw

by BTLove on Jul 7, 2009 12:55 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

oh yea bro

when i saw the post where you said that, i thought it was great, had to have it for a sig

"Yeah, why rely on "facts" and "evidence" to support your arguments? Stupid me." BTLove

by irish republican army on Jul 12, 2009 9:58 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Texas, I believe.

I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.

by Drugs Delaney on Jul 8, 2009 8:48 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Knew that

He got snubbed. 20 HR, 854 OPS.

by ritz on Jul 8, 2009 2:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Maybe a coin flip now...

But think you will be suprised when Ells finishes the year @ .330 with 80 SB….Anyway he’s the guy I want on my team in CF out of all them other choices!

by BoSox 2009 on Jul 9, 2009 4:13 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs