Bard is Untouchable
by jkeough on Jul 26, 2009 2:02 AM EDT
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I have decided. With a very small major league sample, that Daniel Bard should not be allowed to leave in any deal. His gas is ridiculous. This guy is insurance if the Papelbon Drama plays itself the way it seems to be heading. I get the feeling with Pap that he wants to cash in. Not saying he shouldn't but that it might be somewhere else. I say you should never give a reliever (especially one with prior shoulder trouble) a deal longer than 4 years. He wants 5+ and Mariano Money. I know he says he has a "responsibility" to guys that come after him (bullshit). He may be gone and Bard may be the guy. This kid is lights out. By the way strange stat on Bard. His ERA is 31.50 on the first pitch and 0.00 on every other pitch. At least on yahoo it is. By the way his K9 is 11.06
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Papelbon is a major reason
for our success in the playoffs. let us not forget that statistically he is the GREATEST POSTSEASON RELIEVER OF ALL TIME in that he holds the record for consecutive post season innings pitched without allowing a run. (it’s thirty something) in fact i believe that he has never allowed a run in the playoffs. this is why i value him greatly.
Odd stat. Here's BBRef's sOPS+ (OPS+ compared to league average for that split) split by pitch count:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?n1=bardda01&year=&t=p#count
Trouble counts:
2-0 = 111
1-1 = 112
2-1 = 228 (!)
3-2 = 190
To make a point though, he’s only been in each of those counts 2, 12, 2, and 12 times, respectively, compared to 111 PAs in total with a OPS+ of 43. That’s pretty damn good overall.
@bs_uf15bosox9be:OverTheMonster-ALLERGEN WARNING:May contain PB.
I have to say
This kid really is good. Paps is looking at the MFY lets just admit it.
Once again, more informed.
Yep.
Trade him to someone who will overpay us for him this offseason, then save all the data on him to multiple disks and store it in Swiss banks in case he embodies karma.
@bs_uf15bosox9be:OverTheMonster-ALLERGEN WARNING:May contain PB.
Paps is looking for the best deal...
He is one of the premier closers in MLB. (Well at this moment so is David Aardsma, who would had thought?) He wants to cash in. I don’t think the MFY are the best fit for Paps. It isn’t that he can’t perform in the pressure cooker that is New York and the New York media, it is just that whatever he does, he will be compare to the great Mariano in every game he closes after Rivera finally retires. It will be very difficult for any closer to pitch some pretty big foot prints to fill.
If I were in Papelbon’s situation, he should look at some NL teams. Philadelphia may want someone in Paps caliber who can handle pitching in a bandbox. Chicago Cubs may be another. I would also suggest the Giants, but they have a pretty good closer at this moment.
It would be great if he could stay in Boston, but how Bard is pitching at this moment, why would the Sox FO spend $12-15 million on Paps, when they can have Bard at that either MLB minimum or have him locked up for couple years at a pretty low price?
This is what I would say to any club that is interested in Papelbon. He has a pretty delicate shoulder, make sure he does his arm and shoulder exercises.
I would like Paps to stay, but i don’t see Theo and his staff really going all out to keep him. The only reason to go all out, if MFY want him, or another AL heavyweight like the Angels want him to make an AL team pretty unstoppable. No matter if he has a tough time competing against the ghost of Mariano, I wouldn’t like to face Papelbon in the 9th inning…
Let's ride Paps arm
until it falls off and then let him walk in FA.
Sox need a hitter (s)
Sox need another lefty in the pen, not named Lopez
Sox need a utility guy prefer one with speed
Sign Matt Holliday in 2010, trade Jason Bay
Here is how good Bard is
his tRA is a paltry 1.82 and his FIP an insane 1.79. He has pitched 27.2 innings. Mariano Rivera has a FIP and tRA in the 2.8 range, and has pitched 41 or so innings. Paps has never had a FIP below 2.14. I don’t know if Bard can keep this up for say, 60 innings, but his numbers so far put him in line for historical greatness. Even Mariano’s great 08, one of the all time great years in relief pitching history, he had a FIP of 2.03. That is how good Bard is. He is by far the best relief pitcher on the team right now, and would be in line for one of the best relief seasons in history if he tranlated his numbers over a full year.
His numbers might fall off a little bit.
But they’re not going away. He’s too good. Ridiculous fastball, with a wipeout slider to back it up. People will swing and miss consistently, which is what Paps has lost.
by Ben Buchanan on Jul 26, 2009 12:06 PM EDT up reply actions
He reminds me alot of Verlander..
Bard throw two high heat pitches, then throws an off speed pitch to screw with the batter. Verlander is kind of renown in doing the same thing. As long as he is a closer, he isn’t overuse and he takes care of himself, he should be okay. If he joins the starting rotation, he needs to use his off speed stuff much more often.
His high heat stuff has great location. Kerry Wood can throw 99-100mph heat, but he does it in the middle of the plate.
Right now, Bard stuff is so good right now, I think the Sox’s staff should look for 2010 to see if it is possible to make him a starting pitcher.
His outing against the A’s and the O’s on Saturday night (8-1-09) were incredible to watch…
No Player is untouchable
If Florida asked for Bard straight up for HRam then Epstein would be fired if he said no. Having said that, Florida won’t make such a request and Bard has proven to be an intergral part of a great bullpen and will likely be for years to come.
Agreed
It all depends on the return. Remember, Bard is just a relief pitcher. Even great closers are only worth about 3-3.2 WAR (that’s looking at Paps, Mariano, and Nathan at their best).
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Jul 26, 2009 12:51 PM EDT up reply actions
+1
it all has to be weighed with the possible return.
Exactly.
When we say untouchable, we mean for what he would realistically be asked for. Most trades that he would be involved in wouldn’t have him as the centerpiece – they would be asking for him to sweeten the deal. That’s why we’re saying Theo won’t trade him – he’s not going to get fair value.
@bs_uf15bosox9be:OverTheMonster-ALLERGEN WARNING:May contain PB.
"Untouchable"? not at all.
Bard is as available as anyone else. He most likely is not even the one of the 10 least touchable players in the system. Unless you’re talking about Albert Pujols, calling players “untouchable” is just hyperbole.
"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw
I would say
That naming him as not one of the 10 least touchable players in the system is just plain wrong. This kid is under cost control for 5 more years. That’s right 5 years until free agency. He is ultra valuable, and is producing at an elite level in the majors. His potential role in the future and his low costs make his value skyrocket when as bs.uf15bosox9bears23 said he isn;t a guy who is going to be dealt straight up, he is a sweetener in a bigger deal. This makes him very close to untouchable. And currently unhittable. Woot!
Once again, more informed.
Maybe you should edit it and say that Bard is The Future.
@bs_uf15bosox9be:OverTheMonster-ALLERGEN WARNING:May contain PB.
10 Guys I value over Bard (in no order):
Pedroia, Youk, Lester, Beckett, Buchholz, Kelly, Lars, Reddick, Bowden, Ellsbury. That is 10 guys. Maybe you could argue Bard over a few of them. But he is certainly not in the top 5; so to say he is untouchable makes no sense.
"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw
I wouldn't label Bard as "untouchable"
He is highly valuable for any trade. The Sox aren’t going to trade him for Delino DeShields clone as the Dodgers traded one of greatest pitchers of all time for a semi okay second baseman, ( ie Petey) The Sox can drive a very hard deal for any team that wants Bard. I wouldn’t be surprise if they demand the Marlins give up Mike Stanton and a proven MLB player for Bard, for example. (ie Stanton was the roadblock to the Manny trade) If Bard is traded, it would be part of a deal to bring a Roy Halladay or Lincecum to the Sox.
Bard is in the catbird seat at this moment, but as a pitcher, he is going to deal with some serious frustration, and can’t get big doubts about his command.
All I asked if Bard is traded, have him traded as far away from Boston and in the NL. Does Nome, Alaska have a MLB team?
Well
I think we have a legitamite argument there. Ready?
No Argument. Pedrodia. Youk. Beckett. Lester
Not on 40 Man Roster(so valued less by the organization currently) Kelly, Lars, Reddick
So the 5th spot comes down to:
Bucholz – Not yet a proven ML starter. If Wake was healthy and Smoltz pitches well barring any unforseen trades of Penny, Buch is odd man out. Also is the first name to go in every trade rumor and don’t think for a second that 50% of those rumors aren’t started by the Sox (Not that he won’t ever be more valuable but I am projecting current value.)
Bowden – Still 1-1&1/2 seasons away. Future value? Absolutley if he shows it in the majors. RE: In The Majors My Key Point. No ML service time high value.
Ells- Elite Speed. Elite Defense(weak arm). Average OBP. Ells is the young proven ML positional player that would be gone in any trade that brought back either a Top 3 Starter or a 3-4 proven hitter. Why? Because the Sox have other internal options at leadoff. Whether you agree with this or not. High Value in current controlled costs because of lack of ML service time but arbitration is approaching.
Bard: Currently a late inning guy on a championship contending team. 1st year of ML service time(started year in minors) 5 years of cost controlled availability to ML team. Potential Closer. Why do I come back to this? Paps(although he is clearly a top 3 closer in the ML) is a likely guy to leave. Why? Beckett. Holes at 3B and DH in the next 2 seasons. Salary costs will skyrocket here because teams overpay for Closers. Someone will throw 5 years and 15+ at him. Would you sign taht deal if you were the Sox? NO! So Bard rises in value.
This argument centers on a key issue, Bard’s value goes down in a straight-up trade. As an add in for a roster move over the next 5 days he is clearly more valuable to the Sox than as a chip to get a Top 3 Starter/3/4 Hitter.
That’s what I think. Just look at the contracts 8th inning guys and closers get. This guy is an untouchable. Although everything is negotiable.
Once again, more informed.
Not buying it.
If Clay Buchholz, Theo Epstein’s most prized prospect for a couple years now, is available for trade then ANY of our younger prospects and young players are available.
A hard throwing reliever? So what? He’s just a reliever who has only thrown less than 30 major league innings, he is just as unproven as either Buch (who mind you in his first season pitched a no hitter) or Bowden. There are any number of guys in baseball who can close a game. Team’s just prefer to go with the same guy all the time. And when that guy moves on or becomes ineffective, they replace him with someone else. Sure Bard can be that “someone else” should Paps move on but there are numerous other options if someone wants Bard.
If we’re bargaining with another team for a top talent and we’re close to a deal and the other team asks us to sweeten the pot by including Bard, he’s gone. Bye bye see you later adios outta here gone. Relievers just aren’t very valuable, sure he is probably more valuable than most because of what he has accomplished in such a short amount of time and he is under team control for a few more years, but he is still just a reliever. Any prospect with top of the rotation (Kelly, Buch, Bowd) or top of the order (Reddick, Lars) potential is going to be valued over any reliever regardless of his age, experience or talent.
You value a reliever and his very small sample size of good performance way to much.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
You don't have
to buy it. I’m using available evidence for my argument and admitting that future performance of other prospects would change the argument. The fact is everyone overvalues Buch. You can say I am overvauling Bard based on a small sample size(agreed) but what about Buch’s “potential” becuase of that damn no-no? This could may be nothing more than a decent #4. You can’t tell yet. Bard however has established a track record of dominating at every level.
I’m just saying.
Once again, more informed.
Yes, but good does not equal untouchable.
Untouchable is a ridiculous statement to make about any young player or prospect. You can say something like “Bard is our best prospect right now.” That is absolutely a statement that can be supported with your evidence. However saying he won’t be trade bait is a little too strong, unless you are Theo Epstein, which would be awesome, but unlikely.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
Re: Buchholz v. Bard
Bard could be an elite relief pitcher—but he’s just a relief pitcher. Starters are more valuable because they throw many more innings. Last year was one of Mariano Rivera’s best seasons: 1.40 ERA 0.67 WHIP 9.8 K/9. That was good for a 3.1 WAR. In the same year Andy Pettitte had an 4.54 ERA 1.41 WHIP 7 K/9 and was worth 4.1 WAR. Why was Pettitte more valuable than Rivera? Pettitte was valuable because he threw 204 innings, compared to 70.2 for Rivera. Thus, even if Buchholz tops out at a #3 starter, he’d be more valuable than Bard—even if Bard became another Mariano Rivera. League average starters that throw a lot of innings are more valuable than elite closers.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Jul 27, 2009 12:09 PM EDT up reply actions
This statement does not make sense: “Not on 40 Man Roster(so valued less by the organization currently) Kelly, Lars, Reddick.” You are saying that the organization values anyone that is on the 40 man over guys that are not? Really? Do you know who is on the 40 man roster? Here are a few guys: Hunter Jones, Gil Velazquez, Travis Denker. You think all of those guys are more valuable than Casey Kelly, Lars Anderson and Josh Reddick? I mean, Julio Lugo was on the 40 man for years! He had negative value to the franchise.
You admit that there are guys more valuable than Bard, but maintain that Bard is “untouchable.” By extension, you seem to be saying one of two things: that the Sox have the 5 most valuable guys in all of baseball (obviously incorrect). or: that there are many, many “untouchable” players in baseball, which also does not seem to make sense. In my head, we would trade anyone in the system for anyone who is more valuable. Simply put, we would trade anyone for Albert Pujols or Joe Mauer.
The fact is that (as Drugs says below), the ceiling is just lower for relief pitchers. An elite relief pitcher might make $10-12M on the FA market. An elite starter or position player will make twice that for twice as many years.
Bard is great. He’s important for every reason you already gave. But the idea that he is “untouchable” just does not hold water. There are probably well over 100 players in baseball that we would trade Bard for without even thinking about it (and no, I’m not going to list them, but here’s a list of 50 to get you started. )
"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw
My argument is
that Bard(and the other 4 ahead of him) are more valuable to the Red Sox. While a guy like Bucholz may be valued higher by another team! Therefore creating the chance he is more likely to go because the value offered to the Sox by Team X is more than the Sox actually value him. Where with Bard the opposite might be true.
Once again, more informed.
Being less likely to go doesn’t mean he is untouchable. Just less likely to be traded, which I believe, he isn’t as valuable thus is less likely to be targeted. But if he were targeted for whatever reason there won’t be hesitation if the offer is good enough.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
Semantics.
jkeough, just say he’s not worth trading.
@bs_uf15bosox9be:OverTheMonster-ALLERGEN WARNING:May contain PB.
You can touch him...
…but you have to pay extra for kissing on the lips
Rock me, sexy Jesus...
by nuthinboutnuthin on Jul 27, 2009 3:17 PM EDT reply actions
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